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At least 955 records · Page 53

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales With Agricultural Intensity

Intensive crop growth can modify regional climate by partitioning energy to latent heating through transpiration, cooling growing season temperatures. Recent work shows that cooling associated with agriculture can dampen anthropogenic warming over breadbasket regions. However, it is unknown whether climate models reproduce crop influences on regional climate, and thus the future risk of extreme climate events over global breadbasket regions. Here, we show that models overestimate growing season temperatures and underestimate evapotranspiration (ET) over global croplands, and that these differences increase with cropped area. We trace this warm and dry difference through each model's representation of the surface energy budget, showing that model differences in transpiration, leaf area index, and the ratio of transpiration to total ET drive the overall effect. While the implications of these model deficiencies for future projections are uncertain, they point to the importance of improving representations of crop-climate processes to better assess breadbasket vulnerability to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unconventional Highly Active and Stable Oxygen Reduction Catalysts Informed by Computational Design Strategies

Abstract Discovering and engineering new materials with fast oxygen surface exchange kinetics and robust long‐term stability is essential for the large‐scale, economically viable commercialization of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology. The perovskite catalyst material BaFe 0.125 Co 0.125 Zr 0.75 O 3 (BFCZ75), predicted to be promising from recent density functional theory (DFT) calculations and unconventional due to its extremely high Zr content and low electronic conductivity, exhibits oxygen reduction reaction surface exchange rates on par with Ba 0.5 Sr 0.5 Co 0.8 Fe 0.2 O 3 (BSCF) and excellent stability at typical operating temperatures. New composite electrodes are engineered by integrating BFCZ75 with commercial electrode materials La 1– x Sr x MnO 3 (LSM) and La 1– x Sr x Co y Fe 1– y O 3 (LSCF) and achieve high performance as measured by low area specific resistance (ASR) values, with the LSCF/BFCZ75 ASR values comparable to top performing noncomposite electrode materials such as SrCo 0.8 Sc 0.2 O 3– δ , BaNb 0.05 Fe 0.95 O 3– δ and BaCo 0.7 Fe 0.22 Y 0.08 O 3– δ . The use of BFCZ75 as a composite with LSCF achieving low ASR values shows that BFCZ75 is highly active and can easily integrate into existing SOFC material supply chains, lowering the barrier for potential commercial application of new electrode materials. Finally, these findings point to a broader unexplored class of perovskite materials with high fractions of redox inactive species (e.g., Zr, Nb, and Ta) that may unlock new pathways to realizing improved commercial SOFCs.

Jacobs, Ryan↗

Aromatic amino acid metabolism and active transport regulation are implicated in microbial persistence in fractured shale reservoirs

Abstract Hydraulic fracturing has unlocked vast amounts of hydrocarbons trapped within unconventional shale formations. This large-scale engineering approach inadvertently introduces microorganisms into the hydrocarbon reservoir, allowing them to inhabit a new physical space and thrive in the unique biogeochemical resources present in the environment. Advancing our fundamental understanding of microbial growth and physiology in this extreme subsurface environment is critical to improving biofouling control efficacy and maximizing opportunities for beneficial natural resource exploitation. Here, we used metaproteomics and exometabolomics to investigate the biochemical mechanisms underpinning the adaptation of model bacterium Halanaerobium congolense WG10 and mixed microbial consortia enriched from shale-produced fluids to hypersalinity and very low reservoir flow rates (metabolic stress). We also queried the metabolic foundation for biofilm formation in this system, a major impediment to subsurface energy exploration. For the first time, we report that H. congolense WG10 accumulates tyrosine for osmoprotection, an indication of the flexible robustness of stress tolerance that enables its long-term persistence in fractured shale environments. We also identified aromatic amino acid synthesis and cell wall maintenance as critical to biofilm formation. Finally, regulation of transmembrane transport is key to metabolic stress adaptation in shale bacteria under very low well flow rates. These results provide unique insights that enable better management of hydraulically fractured shale systems, for more efficient and sustainable energy extraction.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Cosmic-ray transport in inhomogeneous media

A theory of cosmic-ray transport in multiphase diffusive media is developed, with the specific application to cases in which the cosmic-ray diffusion coefficient has large spatial fluctuations that may be inherently multiscale. We demonstrate that the resulting transport of cosmic rays is diffusive in the long-time limit, with an average diffusion coefficient equal to the harmonic mean of the spatially varying diffusion coefficient. Thus, cosmic-ray transport is dominated by areas of low diffusion even if these areas occupy a relatively small, but not infinitesimal, fraction of the volume. On intermediate time-scales, the cosmic rays experience transient effective subdiffusion, as a result of low-diffusion regions interrupting long flights through high-diffusion regions. In the simplified case of a two-phase medium, we show that the extent and extremity of the subdiffusivity of cosmic-ray transport is controlled by the spectral exponent of the distribution of patch sizes of each of the phases. We finally show that, despite strongly influencing the confinement times, the multiphase medium is only capable of altering the energy dependence of cosmic-ray transport when there is a moderate (but not excessive) level of perpendicular diffusion across magnetic-field lines.

Astronomy and Astrophysics↗

Multifunctional electrochemical memory stabilized by phase coexistence

Our growing computing needs, especially in applications that heavily rely on artificial intelligence (AI), motivate a search for new components that could substantially augment the performance of general-purpose digital computers. Beyond ON/OFF switching, new components with linear multistate analog resistive tuning, nonlinear volatile switching, spiking, oscillatory, stochastic and other complex functionalities could enable highly efficient neuromorphic computing schemes for AI information processing. Compared to the extreme multifunctionality of biological neurons, realizing all the above characteristics in a single, scalable analog component remains a grand challenge. Here we investigate electrochemical gating combined with localized thermal activation to program and switch a single, vertically integrated and dimensionally scaled electrothermal chemical random access memory (ETCRAM) with a channel and reservoir composed of phase-separated vanadium oxide. Closely related to electrochemical RAM (ECRAM), ETCRAM uses an integrated gate-heater electrode to overcome kinetic barriers that help retain states at ambient temperatures. In addition to synapse-like stable and programmable analog resistance states arising from redox-tunable phase coexistence, a single component exhibits neuron-like nonlinear conductance switching with a tunable threshold and self-driven dynamics owing to the thermally driven metal-insulator phase transition in vanadium dioxide. More broadly, we demonstrate that electrochemically stabilized phase coexistence could unlock analog electronics with novel functionality, stability, reconfigurability, and scalability.

Oh, Sangheon [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liver↗

Control of long-distance motion of single molecules on a surface

Spatial control over molecular movement is typically limited because motion at the atomic scale follows stochastic processes. Here, we used scanning tunneling microscopy to bring single molecules into a stable orientation of high translational mobility where they moved along precisely defined tracks. Single dibromoterfluorene molecules moved over large distances of 150 nanometers with extremely high spatial precision of 0.1 angstrom across a silver (111) surface. The electrostatic nature of the effect enabled the selective application of repulsive and attractive forces to send or receive single molecules. The high control allows us to precisely move an individual and specific molecular entity between two separate probes, opening avenues for velocity measurements and thus energy dissipation studies of single molecules in real time during diffusion and collision.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Volumetric Subtractive Manufacturing

Manufacturing small negative features has been extremely challenging in whole additive manufacturing (AM) field. Due to overcuring, diffusion and refractive index increase, the achievable smallest negative feature and fidelity is always worse than the smallest positive one using AM methods. Additionally, attempting to print multi-scale feature sizes in the same exposure has proven to be challenging in DLP printing due to diffusion and inhibition. To address these challenges, we have developed a hybrid additive and subtractive manufacturing approach on a DLP platform with a dual-wavelength photopolymers to be able to print multi-scale features and small negative features with accuracy. And we also have demonstrated a first-of-its-kind Volumetric Subtractive Manufacturing by fabricating non-planar double helix fluidics by photo-degrading polymers. This work has the potential to shift the paradigm of DLP AM techniques by incorporating subtractive manufacturing as a new degree of freedom for enhancing the achievable print resolution and enabling corrective and adaptive manufacturing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event

Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergence of an island of extreme nuclear isomerism at high excitation near 208 Pb

Metastable states with $T_{1/2}$ = 8(2) ms in 205Bi and $T_{1/2}$ = 0.22(2) ms in 204 Pb, with ≈ 8 MeV excitation energy and angular momentum ≥ 22 $\hbar$, have been established. These represent, by up to two orders of magnitude, the longest-lived nuclear states above an excitation energy of 7 MeV, ever identified in the nuclear chart. Additionally, the half-life of the 10.17 MeV state in 206 Bi has been determined to be 0.027(2) ms, the next highest value in this highly excited regime. These observations indicate the emergence of an island of extreme nuclear isomerism arising from core-excited configurations at high excitation in the vicinity of the doubly closed-shell nucleus 208 Pb. These results are expected to provide discriminating tests of the effective interactions used in current large-scale shell-model calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Multiscale Reactive Model for 1,3,5-Triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene Inferred by Reactive MD Simulations and Unsupervised Learning

When high-energy-density materials are subjected to thermal or mechanical insults at extreme conditions (shock loading), a coupled response between the thermo-mechanical and chemical behaviors is systematically induced. Herein we develop a reaction model for the fast chemistry of 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) at the mesoscopic scale, where the chemical behavior is determined by underlying microscopic reactive simulations. The slow carbon cluster formation is not discussed in the present work. All-atom reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed with the ReaxFF potential, and a reduced-order chemical kinetics model for TATB is fitted to isothermal and adiabatic simulations of single crystal chemical decomposition. Unsupervised machine learning techniques based on non-negative matrix factorization are applied to MD trajectories to model the decomposition kinetics of TATB in terms of a four-component model. The associated heats of reaction are fit to the temperature evolution from adiabatic decomposition trajectories. Using a chemical species analysis, we show that non-negative matrix factorization captures the main chemical decomposition steps of TATB and provides an accurate estimation of their evolution with temperature. The final analytical formulation, coupled to a diffusion term, is incorporated into a continuum formalism, and simulation results are compared one-to-one against MD simulations of 1D reaction propagation along different crystallographic directions and with different initial temperatures. A good agreement is found for both the temporal and spatial evolution of the temperature field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Triphenylphosphine Oxide-Derived Anolyte for Application in Nonaqueous Redox Flow Battery

Recent advances in redox flow batteries have made them a viable option for grid-scale energy storage, however they exhibit low energy density. One way to boost energy density is by increasing the cell potential using a nonaqueous system. Molecular engineering has proven to be an effective strategy to develop redox-active compounds with extreme potentials but these are usually challenged by resource sustainability of the newly developed redox materials. Here, we investigate the utility of phosphine oxides as anolytes with extremely negative potentials. Specifically, we found that cyclic triphenylphosphine oxide (CPO), has a highly negative potential (–2.4 V vs Fc/Fc + ). Importantly, CPO is synthesized from triphenylphosphine oxide, a common industrial chemical waste with no commercial value. Structural and electrochemical characterization of the reduced radical anion showed that enhanced stability is due to cyclization or extended pi-conjugation. Importantly, mechanistic investigation into the decomposition of CPO under various solvents and electrochemical conditions allowed us to utilize an acetonitrile/DMF binary solvent system to enable a long-lived anolyte which exhibited no fade over 350 cycles. In conclusion, this work led to the development of a waste-derived cyclic phosphine oxide that exhibits excellent cycling stability making it an ideal anolyte toward the development of energy-dense RFBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Ptychography at all wavelengths

Ptychography is a computational imaging technique that operates across multiple wavelength regimes, from electron (picometres) to X-ray (~0.1 nm), extreme ultraviolet (~10 nm) and visible light (micrometres). By reconstructing both amplitude and phase from diffraction patterns, ptychography enables high-resolution, quantitative imaging without conventional limitations imposed by lens-based optics. Ptychography has enabled advances across a range of scales: achieving deep-sub-angstrom resolution with electron microscopy, becoming an indispensable tool at X-ray synchrotron facilities worldwide and overcoming the trade-offs between resolution and field-of-view in optical imaging. This Primer provides a unified treatment of ptychography across these wavelength regimes. First, we discuss theoretical foundations, reconstruction algorithms, experimental considerations and wavelength-specific challenges. We then give examples of raw and processed data from various configurations and wavelengths. Next, we highlight key applications of ptychography in life sciences, materials science and industry. We also discuss data standards, open-source software implementations and best practices for ensuring reproducibility across different wavelength regimes. Finally, we consider limitations and future opportunities for ptychography. Together with accompanying datasets and code implementations, this Primer aims to serve newcomers and experienced practitioners in the field, facilitating broader adoption of ptychography across different disciplines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

22 GeV CEBAF with Novel Fixed Field Alternating Gradient Design

Extending the energy reach of CEBAF up to 22 GeV within the existing tunnel is being explored. Proposed energy upgrade can be achieved by increasing the number of recirculations, while using the existing CEBAF SRF cavity system. Presented scheme is based on an exciting new approach to acceleratie electrons efficiently with multiple passes in a single FFA beam line. Encouraged by recent success of the CBETA Test Accelerator, a proposal was formulated raise CEBAF energy by replacing the highest-energy arcs with Fixed Field Alternating Gradient (FFA) arcs. The new pair of arcs configured with FFA lattice would support simultaneous transport of additional 6 passes with energies spanning a factor of two, using the non-scaling FFA principle implemented with Halbach-derived permanent magnets - a novel magnet technology that significantly saves energy and lowers operating costs. One of the challenges of the multi-pass (11) linac optics is to provide uniform focusing in a vast range of energies, using fixed field lattice. Here, we propose a triplet lattice scaled up with increasing momentum along the linac. This would provide a stable periodic solution covering energy ratio of 1:33. The current CEBAF configured with a 123 MeV injector, makes optical matching in the first linac virtually impossible due to extremely high energy span ratio (1:175). Therefore, we envision replacement of the current injector with a 650 MeV 3-pass recirculating injector based on the existing LERF facility. Finally, the 22 GeV CEBAF would promise to deliver in 10-passes a beam with normalized emittance of 80 mm·mrad and with a relative energy spread of 1.5 × 10-3. Further recirculation beyond 22 GeV is limited by large, 974 MeV per electron, energy loss due to synchrotron radiation.

Bogacz, Slawomir↗

Lasers for the observation of multiple order nuclear reactions

Nuclear reaction rates become nonlinear with respect to flux (cm −2 s −1 ) in extreme environments such as those found during stellar nucleosynthesis and terrestrial nuclear detonations. To observe these effects directly in the laboratory, extremely high particle fluences (cm −2 ) are necessary but not sufficient. Reactor-based neutron sources, such as the Institut Laue-Langevin’s high-flux neutron reactor, were previously the closest to meeting this challenge, albeit over ∼hour time scales. In ultra-high flux environments, where multiple reactions occur on picosecond time scales, nuclei are unable to return to their ground states between reactions; consequently, reactions take place on excited nuclei. To accurately model high-flux environments, data on the cross-sections of excited nuclear states are required, which differ significantly from those of ground states due to spin/parity effects. In order to replicate these effects in the laboratory, short high-fluence pulses on the order of the lifetime of a typical nuclear excited state (generally ≲1 ns) are required. Particle beams generated by high-intensity lasers are uniquely positioned to meet this need with the potential to produce fluences of 10 17 protons/cm 2 and 10 22 neutrons/cm 2 over a few pico-seconds or less. In addition to providing a quantitative analysis of the rates of multiple rapid reactions in general, the present work examines a number of laser-based experiments that could be conducted in the near future to observe multiple rapid reactions for laboratory-based astrophysics and the measurement of exotic cross-sections.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Molecular-scale mechanisms of CO 2 mineralization in nanoscale interfacial water films

The calamitous impacts of untethered carbon emission from fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure calls for accelerated development of large-scale CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage technologies that are underpinned by fundamental understanding of molecular-level chemical processes. In the subsurface, rocks rich in divalent metals can react with CO 2 , permanently sequestering it in the form of stable metal carbonate minerals, with the CO 2 -H 2 O composition of the post-injection pore fluid acting as a primary control variable. Herein, we compare mechanistic reaction pathways for aqueous-mediated carbonation with carbon mineralization occurring in nanoscale adsorbed water films. In the extreme of pores filled with a CO 2 -dominant fluid, carbonation reactions are confined to nanometer-thick water films coating mineral surfaces, which enable metal cation release, transport, nucleation, and crystallization of metal carbonate minerals. Though seemingly counterintuitive, laboratory studies have demonstrated facile carbonation rates in these low water environments, which in recent years has begun to be better understood in mechanistic detail. The overarching objective of this review is to delineate the unique underlying molecular-scale reaction mechanisms that govern CO 2 mineralization in these reactive and dynamic quasi-2D interfaces. Here. we highlight the importance of understanding unique properties in thin water films, such as how water dielectric properties, and consequently ion solvation/hydration behavior, can change under nanoconfinement. We conclude by identifying important frontiers for future work and opportunities to exploit these fundamental chemical insights for decarbonization technologies in the 21st century.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Contributions of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities to solute retention and anomalous transport features in porous media

We report that microbial biofilms are ubiquitous within porous media and the dynamics of their growth influence surface and subsurface flow patterns which impacts the physical properties of porous media and large-scale transport of solutes. Here, a two-dimensional pore-scale numerical model was used to evaluate the impact of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities on conservative transport. Our study integrates experimental biofilm images of Paenibacillus 300A strain in a microfluidic device packed with cylindrical grains in a hexagonal distribution, with mathematical modeling. Biofilm is represented as a synthetic porous structure with locally varying physical properties that honors the impact of biofilm on the porous medium. We find that biofilm plays a major role in shaping the observed conservative transport dynamics by enhancing anomalous characteristics. More specifically, when biofilm is present, the pore structure in our geometry becomes more spatially correlated. We observe intermittent behavior in the Lagrangian velocities that switches between fast transport periods and long trapping events. Our results suggest that intermittency enhances solute spreading in breakthrough curves which exhibit extreme anomalous slope at intermediate times and very marked late solute arrival due to solute retention. The efficiency of solute retention by the biofilm is controlled by a transport regime which can extend the tailing in the concentration breakthrough curves. These results indicate that solute retention by the biofilm exerts a strong control on conservative solute transport at pore-scale, a role that to date has not received enough attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗