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At least 955 records · Page 53

Coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban stormwater drainage system in Tampa, Florida (USA)

Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections” Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from –40% to 160%, and –40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving near real-time precipitation estimation using a U-Net convolutional neural network and geographical information

Reliable near real-time precipitation estimates are essential for monitoring and managing of natural disasters such as floods. Quality of inputs and capability of the retrieval algorithm are two important aspects for developing satellite-based precipitation datasets. Most retrieval algorithms utilize infrared (IR) information as their input due to its fine spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability. However, their sole reliance on IR information limits their capability to learn different mechanisms of precipitation during training, resulting in less accurate estimates. Moreover, recent advances in the field of machine learning offer attractive opportunities to improve the precipitation retrieval algorithms. This work investigates the effectiveness of adding geographical information (i.e. latitude and longitude) to IR information and the application of a U-Net-based convolutional neural network for improving the accuracy of retrieval algorithms. This research suggests that applying an appropriate CNN architecture on geographical and IR information provides an opportunity to improve the satellite-based precipitation products.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reactive particle-tracking solutions to a benchmark problem on heavy metal cycling in lake sediments

Geochemical systems are known to exhibit highly variable spatiotemporal behavior. This may be observed both in non-smooth concentration curves in space for a single sampling time and also in variability between samples taken from the same location at different times. However, most models that are designed to simulate these systems provide only single-solution smooth curves and fail to capture the noise and variability seen in the data. We apply a recently developed reactive particle-tracking method to a system that displays highly complex geochemical behavior. When the method is made to most closely resemble a corresponding Eulerian method, in its unperturbed form, we see near-exact match between solutions of the two models. More importantly, we consider two approaches for perturbing the model and find that the spatially-perturbed condition is able to capture a greater degree of the variability present in the data. This method of perturbation is a task to which particle methods are uniquely suited and Eulerian models are not well-suited. Additionally, because of the nature of the algorithm, noisy spatial gradients can be highly resolved by a large number of mobile particles, and this incurs negligible computational cost, as compared to expensive chemistry calculations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses

Climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle via increased evapotranspiration (ET). Changes in ET have important consequences for water-related ecosystem services as well as for forest productivity. Forests play a critical role in ET: active trees sequester carbon at the expense of losing water, yet if they are not active, water remains in the trees, but productivity stalls. Here, we estimated the capacity of forests to recover (resilience) from extreme water or productivity losses based on modeled ET through remote sensing methods across the conterminous USA. Results show there is a spatial tradeoff in resilience to water or productivity losses. Forests were more resilient to water loss in the drier west, and more resilient to productivity loss in the wetter east. Still, resilience was highly heterogeneous across the continent. Projections under climate change indicate both declines and increases of up to 13% in forest resilience, with broad regional trends but high spatial heterogeneity within regions. This study brings crucial satellite-based insights on how water dynamics, and consequentially productivity and water provision in forests, might be impacted by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COVID-19 pandemic underscores role of green space in urban carbon dynamics

For Detroit Michigan the arrival of COVID-19 led to intensive measures to prevent further spread of the virus resulting in consequent changes in traffic and energy use. Here, we take advantage of these different emission scenarios to explore CO 2 dynamics in a postindustrial city with a declining population and increasing green space. We present atmospheric CO 2 concentration and net urban ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NUE) from a typical eddy covariance system and canopy greenness from a field camera on the Wayne State University campus in midtown Detroit. We categorized our study period (January 18, 2020–July 31, 2020) into three subperiods associated with the state-wide shelter-in-place order. Our results support that the city was a net carbon source throughout the period, particularly during the shelter-in-place period, although reduced traffic lowered CO 2 concentrations and NUE. However, during the post-order period when traffic was highest, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and NUE were lowest, suggesting that the greening of urban vegetation may have greater carbon mitigation potential than lowering anthropogenic carbon emissions through traffic reductions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electric vehicle fast charging infrastructure planning in urban networks considering daily travel and charging behavior

Electric vehicles are a sustainable substitution to conventional vehicles. This work introduces an integrated framework for urban fast charging infrastructure to address the range anxiety issue. A mesoscopic simulation tool is developed to generate trip trajectories, and simulate charging behavior based on various trip attributes. The resulting charging demand is the key input to a mixed-integer nonlinear program that seeks charging station configuration. The model minimizes the total system cost including charging station and charger installation costs, and charging, queuing, and detouring delays. The problem is solved using a decomposition technique incorporating a commercial solver for small networks, and a heuristic algorithm for large-scale networks, in addition to the Golden Section method. The solution quality and significant superiority in the computational efficiency of the decomposition approach are confirmed in comparison with the implicit enumeration approach. Furthermore, the required infrastructure to support urban trips is explored for future market shares and technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion

Abstract Arctic shrub expansion alters carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes but remains challenging to predict due to unclear underlying controls. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (bioclimate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, while omitting shrub demographic processes and non-stationary response to changing climate. Here, we use high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984–2014, but can only be explained by considering seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted based on increasing environmental suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents shrub expansion pattern and its associated carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting wind-driven spatial deposition through simulated color images using deep autoencoders

Abstract For centuries, scientists have observed nature to understand the laws that govern the physical world. The traditional process of turning observations into physical understanding is slow. Imperfect models are constructed and tested to explain relationships in data. Powerful new algorithms can enable computers to learn physics by observing images and videos. Inspired by this idea, instead of training machine learning models using physical quantities, we used images, that is, pixel information. For this work, and as a proof of concept, the physics of interest are wind-driven spatial patterns. These phenomena include features in Aeolian dunes and volcanic ash deposition, wildfire smoke, and air pollution plumes. We use computer model simulations of spatial deposition patterns to approximate images from a hypothetical imaging device whose outputs are red, green, and blue (RGB) color images with channel values ranging from 0 to 255. In this paper, we explore deep convolutional neural network-based autoencoders to exploit relationships in wind-driven spatial patterns, which commonly occur in geosciences, and reduce their dimensionality. Reducing the data dimension size with an encoder enables training deep, fully connected neural network models linking geographic and meteorological scalar input quantities to the encoded space. Once this is achieved, full spatial patterns are reconstructed using the decoder. We demonstrate this approach on images of spatial deposition from a pollution source, where the encoder compresses the dimensionality to 0.02% of the original size, and the full predictive model performance on test data achieves a normalized root mean squared error of 8%, a figure of merit in space of 94% and a precision-recall area under the curve of 0.93.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interannual variability and trends of summertime PM2.5-based air quality in the Intermountain West

Abstract Summertime air quality is a growing public health concern in the populated region of Northern Utah. Whereas winter air pollution is highly linked with local atmospheric temperature inversions associated with upper atmospheric high-pressure and radiational cooling in valleys, the relationship between climate factors and the frequency of poor air quality during summer is still unknown. Analyzing the last 20 years of data, we demonstrated that summertime unhealthy days (as defined by PM2.5 air quality index level) in Northern Utah highly correlate with the number of dry-hot days, wildfire size, and an upper atmospheric ridge over the Northwestern United States. The persistent atmospheric ridge enhances lightning-caused fire burned areas in northwestern states and then transports the wildfire smoke toward Northern Utah. Similarly, climate model simulations confirm observational findings, such as an increasing trend of the upper atmospheric ridge and summertime dry days in the northwestern states. Such metrics developed in this study could be used to establish longer-term monitoring and seasonal forecasting for air quality and its compounding factors, which is currently limited to forecasting products for only several days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geographic patterns of genomic diversity and structure in the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its natural distribution

Abstract Geographic patterns of within-species genomic diversity are shaped by evolutionary processes, life history and historical and contemporary factors. New genomic approaches can be used to infer the influence of such factors on the current distribution of infraspecific lineages. In this study, we evaluated the genomic and morphological diversity as well as the genetic structure of the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its complex natural distribution in North America. We sampled extensively across the natural range of P. hallii in Mexico and the USA to generate double-digestion restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequence data for 423 individuals from 118 localities. We used these individuals to study the divergence between the two varieties of P. hallii, P. hallii var. filipes and P. hallii var. hallii as well as the genetic diversity and structure within these groups. We also examined the possibility of admixture in the geographically sympatric zone shared by both varieties, and assessed distribution shifts related with past climatic fluctuations. There is strong genetic and morphological divergence between the varieties and consistent genetic structure defining seven genetic clusters that follow major ecoregions across the range. South Texas constitutes a hotspot of genetic diversity with the co-occurrence of all genetic clusters and admixture between the two varieties. It is likely a recolonization and convergence point of populations that previously diverged in isolation during fragmentation events following glaciation periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (S ppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of S ppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of S ppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of S ppt with different satellite products: S ppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest S ppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, S ppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in S ppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, S ppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in S ppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in S ppt . Our finding of the overall decline in S ppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed S ppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 11: Summary and Path Forward

The 2024 State of the Science report has brought together the most up-to-date information on potential environmental effects of marine renewable energy (MRE) development on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes, as well as social and economic systems, using information that is publicly available as well as expert input. The report has been reviewed by over 56 experts. The reviewers provided in excess of one thousand comments during the drafting of the report that have been addressed in this version. The OES-Environmental country representatives from the 16 participating countries helped to scope the entirety of the report and provided valuable contributions to all chapters. The input from these contributors and reviewers has resulted in the most complete compendium of research and monitoring findings possible. While there is new and exciting research underway that should further illuminate the risks of MRE stressor-receptor interactions in the near future, suppositions and incomplete results from unpublished studies were not included in order to maintain the integrity, and decrease the uncertainty, of the messages in this report

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Thresholding Analysis and Feature Extraction from 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Data for Noninvasive Assessment of Peanut Yield

This study explores the efficacy of utilizing a novel ground penetrating radar (GPR) acquisition platform and data analysis methods to quantify peanut yield for breeding selection, agronomic research, and producer management and harvest applications. Sixty plots comprising different peanut market types were scanned with a multichannel, air-launched GPR antenna. Image thresholding analysis was performed on 3D GPR data from four of the channels to extract features that were correlated to peanut yield with the objective of developing a noninvasive high-throughput peanut phenotyping and yield-monitoring methodology. Plot-level GPR data were summarized using mean, standard deviation, sum, and the number of nonzero values (counts) below or above different percentile threshold values. Best results were obtained for data below the percentile threshold for mean, standard deviation and sum. Data both below and above the percentile threshold generated good correlations for count. Correlating individual GPR features to yield generated correlations of up to 39% explained variability, while combining GPR features in multiple linear regression models generated up to 51% explained variability. The correlations increased when regression models were developed separately for each peanut type. This research demonstrates that a systematic search of thresholding range, analysis window size, and data summary statistics is necessary for successful application of this type of analysis. The results also establish that thresholding analysis of GPR data is an appropriate methodology for noninvasive assessment of peanut yield, which could be further developed for high-throughput phenotyping and yield-monitoring, adding a new sensor and new capabilities to the growing set of digital agriculture technologies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systemic Risk From the Perspective of Climate, Environmental and Disaster Risk Science and Practice

Understanding and managing systemic risk is more important than ever due to our immense global connectivity (e.g., between sectors, such as food-health-water-energy, countries and continents, down to individuals). Despite the fact that the notion of systemic risk is several decades old, the term is used in diverse ways across different disciplines (e.g., financial systems, medicine, earth system sciences, disaster risk research and climate science). Triggered by the repercussions of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, which are clear realization of systemic risk, the perception of systemic risk has often been focused on global and catastrophic or even existential risks. Systemic risk, however, can be seen as a feature of systems at all possible scales (e.g., global, national, regional, local) with system boundaries varying depending on the context. Addressing current societal challenges, such as climate change, in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Based on insights gained and knowledge collected from an expert workshop, literature review and expert elicitation, we give an integrated perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice on systemic risk as summarized in a Briefing Note to the International Science Council. We provide an overview of concepts of systemic risk that have evolved over time and identify commonalities across terminologies and perspectives associated with systemic risk used in different contexts. Key attributes of systemic risk are outlined without prescribing a single definition, and information and data requirements are discussed that are essential for a better and more actionable understanding of the systemic nature of risk. Finally, the opportunities to connect research and policy for addressing systemic risk are highlighted.

systemic risk↗

Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data

The radiative effects of wildfires have been traditionally estimated by models using radiative transfer calculations. Assessment of model-predicted radiative effects commonly involves information on observation-based aerosol optical properties. However, lack or incompleteness of this information for dense plumes generated by intense wildfires reduces substantially the applicability of this assessment. Here we introduce a novel method that provides additional observational constraints for such assessments using widely available ground-based measurements of shortwave and spectrally resolved irradiances and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges. We apply our method to quantify the radiative impact of the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in the Western US in September 2020. For our quantification we use integrated ground-based data collected at the Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory in Richland, Washington, USA with a location frequently downwind of wildfires in the Western US. We demonstrate that remarkably dense plumes generated by these wildfires strongly reduced the solar surface irradiance (up to 70% or 450 Wm -2 for total shortwave flux) and almost completely masked the sun from view due to extremely large AOD (above 10 at 500 nm wavelength). We also demonstrate that the plume-induced radiative impact is comparable in magnitude with those produced by a violent volcano eruption occurred in the Western US in 1980 and continental cumuli.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗