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At least 955 records · Page 53

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Low-Dimensional Manifold via Co-Kurtosis PCA in Combustion Modeling

For multi-scale multi-physics applications e.g., the turbulent combustion code Pele, robust and accurate dimensionality reduction is crucial to solving problems at exascale and beyond. A recently developed technique, Co-Kurtosis based Principal Component Analysis (CoK-PCA) which leverages principal vectors of co-kurtosis, is a promising alternative to traditional PCA for complex chemical systems. To improve the effectiveness of this approach, we employ Artificial Neural Networks for reconstructing thermo-chemical scalars, species production rates, and overall heat release rates corresponding to the full state space. Our focus is on bolstering confidence in this deep learning based non-linear reconstruction through Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA). UQ involves quantifying uncertainties in inputs and outputs, while SA identifies influential inputs. One of the noteworthy challenges is the computational expense inherent in both endeavors. To address this, we employ the Monte Carlo methods to effectively quantify and propagate uncertainties in our reduced spaces while managing computational demands. Our research carries profound implications not only for the realm of combustion modeling but also for a broader audience in UQ. By showcasing the reliability and robustness of CoK-PCA in dimensionality reduction and deep learning predictions, we empower researchers and decision-makers to navigate complex combustion systems with greater confidence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Western States Building Energy & Controls Apprenticeship (BECA) Program

How does this project help to understand the challenges of workforce development in the commercial building energy management industry? The purpose of this project was to create a replicable, scalable, and portable apprenticeship program for building energy management and controls. This paper will demonstrate how local processes can be more adaptable and inclusive than federal processes in achieving workforce development goals. Our work provides insights into the technical effectiveness of the program, enabling others to achieve greater success in their workforce development initiatives. The project required more time and financial resources than initially anticipated and spent a year in a no-cost extension working to accomplish the Statement of Project Objectives. The original goal was to create an Industry Related Apprenticeship Program (IRAP). The development of this apprenticeship presented challenges due to the lack of existing programs for reference and the absence of relevant industry classification codes by the Department of Labor (DOL). Notably, the role of a commercial building energy analyst is not recognized by the DOL. The SIC (industry codes) do not have a good description of this job. There are many that may fall into related categories, but none are the actual duties of an energy analyst. Discussions with the DOL indicated that substantial groundwork was necessary before a national apprenticeship program could be implemented, causing delays in the program’s commencement. As a result, students experienced longer wait times before starting their apprenticeship component. The apprenticeship program officially launched on September 14, 2021. The success of the State of Oregon’s apprenticeship program, the first of its kind in the state, underscored the flexibility and effectiveness of local initiatives compared to federal efforts. The COVID-19 pandemic also significantly impacted the project’s success. Beginning in March 2020, the pandemic led to widespread closures of schools and colleges by fall 2020. By September 2021, when the apprenticeship option became available, enrollment in colleges and universities nationwide had decreased, affecting student participation in the program. Moreover, as employers transitioned their employees to remote work, there was limited interaction with external personnel, influencing the willingness of training agents (employers) to integrate additional workers into their teams. This paper addresses several challenges encountered during the project, with the hope that future workforce development efforts will benefit from these experiences. We Final Technical Report 4 | Page encourage others to engage with state and federal agencies to enhance and update pathways for workforce development and apprenticeship programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

03.02.02.45: Energy Efficiency Improvement Approaches in Ice Related Processes

The primary objective of this project was to facilitate the dislocation of the interfacial ice layer by employing advanced materials and ultrasonic vibration to reduce ice adhesion strength. This work employed two technical approaches that were thoroughly investigated and previously reported. The effectiveness of these approaches, both individually and in combination, has been quantified, demonstrating notable energy savings. The projected payback period for these enhancements is approximately 2.2 years or less, contingent upon specific energy costs. Furthermore, these advancements hold significant promise for reducing carbon emissions across various equipment scales. This study particularly focused on the ultrasonic deicing technique for diverse structures, utilizing numerical simulations to evaluate performance and potential benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Single-Volume Scatter Camera (Final Report)

This document serves as a comprehensive final report for the Single-Volume Scatter Camera (SVSC) project. Most of the work over the course of this project has been documented in journal articles, conference papers, and other reports. We therefore reference those materials for detailed presentation of our technical results. The most recent efforts on the project have not been published and are presented in detail here. We present characterizations of two neutron scatter camera prototypes; one using a monolithic geometry, and one using an optically segmented geometry. Both detectors employ plastic scintillator with SiPM-based readout. For the monolithic prototype, we present calibrations of several detector parameters made using a set of dark counts. In particular, we employ a coincidence analysis to characterize the distribution external optical crosstalk, along with the relative timing of the different SiPMs. For the optically segmented prototype we present the results of calibrations made using a tagged 22 Na source, as well as the results of an imaging measurement made using a tagged AmBe source.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Data-Driven Supervised Dimension Reduction for Scientific Discovery (LDRD QTI Report)

This report summarizes the findings of a four months FY24 Advanced Science & Technology (AS&T) LDRD Quick Targeted Investigation (QTI) project focused on the exploration of supervised dimension reduction approaches based on autoencoders. Autoencoders have been extensively employed in literature for unsupervised learning tasks, however, their use for supervised regression tasks, which are common within scientific applications, has been limited. Motivated by linear dimension reduction strategies like Active Subspaces and Adaptive Basis, we explored the possibility of employing autoencoders to discover a non-linear manifold able to represent the original function in fewer dimensions. In this report, we discuss a neural network architecture and we perform a numerical campaign on several problems ranging from simple two-dimensional functions to a model problem for magnetohydrodynamics in five dimensions. In our preliminary results, we show that the proposed approach is found to be superior to linear dimension reduction strategies in representing the target function even with a single latent variable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Noble Gas Transport in the MSRE

This study explores the relationship between the physicochemical parameter known as Henry’s gas constant and gas transport across a two-layer film interface. The investigation utilized the Gibbs free energy, incorporating surface and volume terms to elucidate trends in enthalpy and entropy. Notably, our findings align with experimental data and offer predictive insights into the Henry’s gas constants for helium and krypton, which hold significance for future experiments and theoretical developments. Furthermore, this study enhances the Gibbs free energy theory pertaining to the liquid–gas interface. It underscores the substantial contribution of noble gases in this region to volumetric energy as temperature increases. Additionally, we employed Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the effective thermal neutron multiplication factor, denoted as k eff . Our analysis reveals a linear correlation between graphite density and uniform density as a function of temperature. For the 1D Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) system, we employed the Mole code to conduct heat and mass transfer calculations. These computations enable us to ascertain the distribution of fuel temperature based on coefficients and thermal properties. We also studied delayed neutron precursors during fuel cycling, taking into account the drift of cycling fuel through Mole–Griffin coupling. Our model represents k eff and β eff across various volume flow rates and salinity compositions. Finally, this study leveraged xenon-135 for continuous on-line monitoring of fuel salts to investigate the impact of steady-state xenon-135 on the MSRE and to better understand its distribution. These efforts build upon previous research related to removal processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Batteries (2021 Annual Progress Report)

This document summarizes the progress of VTO battery R&D projects supported during the fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021). In FY 2021, the DOE VTO battery R&D funding was approximately $\$$115 million. Its R&D focus was on the development of high-energy batteries for EVs as well as very high-power devices for hybrid vehicles. The electrochemical energy storage roadmap (which can be found at the EERE Roadmap web page2) describes ongoing and planned efforts to develop electrochemical storage technologies for EVs. To advance battery technology, which can in turn improve market penetration of PEVs, the program investigates various battery chemistries to overcome specific technical barriers, e.g., battery cost, performance, life (both the calendar life and the cycle life), its tolerance to abusive conditions, and its recyclability/sustainability. VTO R&D has had considerable success, lowering the cost of EV battery packs to $\$$185/kWh in 2019 (representing more than 80% reduction since 2008) yet even further cost reduction is necessary for EVs to achieve head-to-head cost competitiveness with ICEs (without Federal subsidies). In addition, today’s batteries also need improvements in such areas as their ability to accept charging at a high rate, referred to as extreme fast charging (XFC) (15 minute charge) – to provide a “refueling” convenience similar to ICEs, and the ability to operate adequately at low temperatures. Research into “next-gen lithium-ion” batteries which would provide such functionalities is one of the R&D focus areas. VTO is funding research on both “next gen” chemistries (which employ an alloy anode and/or a high voltage cathode) and beyond lithium-ion (BLI) chemistries (which can, for example, employ a lithium metal anode).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Investigating Gadolinium-Lined Sodium-Iodide Neutron Detectors for Mobile Applications

For enhancing the effectiveness of nonproliferation efforts in neutron detection, most portable instruments rely on 6 Li scintillators, 10 B-based detectors, or gas-filled 3 He proportional counters. Additionally, gamma-ray detectors based on scintillators and semiconductors are often employed for search applications to find radioactive material in the field. These systems typically include dedicated detectors along with separate high voltage supplies and processing electronics for the gamma-ray and neutron detectors. Ideally, a portable radiation detection system should be lightweight, compact, and cost-effective. In the field, scintillators can serve a dual purpose: (1) detecting gamma-rays and (2) detecting neutrons. Gamma-ray detection with scintillators is based on the interaction of gamma-rays within the scintillating material, whereas neutron detection depends indirectly on neutron capture events. These capture events generate conversion electrons and gamma-rays, which can interact with the scintillator. For enhancing neutron capture, the scintillator can be surrounded by neutron absorber materials with a high neutron cross section. The resulting secondary electrons and gamma-rays from neutron interactions, depending on the absorber material used, can then be analyzed to detect the presence of neutron sources. Similarly, semiconductor-based detectors can be employed along with neutron absorbers as liners for neutron detection. 158 Gd has a significantly larger neutron cross section than 3 He, commonly used in gas-filled proportional counters, as shown in Figure 1. For thermal (0.025 eV) neutrons, the absorption cross section of 158 Gd is 10,000 times greater than that of 3 He (refer to Figure 1). This feature makes naturally occurring gadolinium, which consists of 24.8% 158 Gd, a promising neutron absorber material for use in combination with gamma-ray detectors–yielding a hybrid detector–for neutron detection.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Mechanistic Studies of a Primitive Homolog of Nitrogenase Involved in Coenzyme F430 Biosynthesis

Methyl-coenzyme M reductase (MCR) is the key enzyme in the biological formation and anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and the major component of natural gas. Given the abundance of natural gas reserves in remote areas, there is great current interest in a scalable bio-based process for the conversion of methane to liquid fuel or other high-value commodity chemicals. MCR holds much promise for use in such a methane bioconversion strategy. However, MCR cannot currently be produced in an active form in a heterologous host, due in large part to the lack of genetic and biochemical information about the production of holo MCR. In an effort to overcome this deficiency, our laboratory elucidated the biosynthetic pathway of the unique nickel-containing coenzyme of MCR, F430. The key step in coenzyme F430 biosynthesis (Cfb) was found to involve an unprecedented reductive cyclization reaction that converts Ni-sirohydrochlorin a , c -diamide to 15,17 3 -seco-F430-17 3 -acid. This remarkable transformation, which involves a 6-electron reduction of the isobacteriochlorin ring system, cyclization of the c -acetamide side chain to form a γ-lactam ring, and the formation of 7 stereocenters, is catalyzed by a primitive homolog of nitrogenase (CfbCD). Nitrogenase is a two-component metalloenzyme that catalyzes the ATP-dependent reduction of dinitrogen to ammonia (nitrogen fixation). Homologs of nitrogenase are also involved in the biosynthesis of the photosynthetic pigments chlorophyll and bacteriochlorophyll. Phylogenetic analysis of the CfbCD complex suggests that it is representative of a more ancient lineage of the nitrogenase superfamily, and a thorough investigation of its structure and function is likely to shed light on the mechanisms and evolution of these important metalloenzymes that catalyze multi-electron redox reactions. Moreover, a detailed understanding of the mechanism of the CfbCD complex may aid in the development of specific inhibitors to help reduce natural greenhouse gas emissions and can be exploited for the heterologous production of MCR for methane bioconversion. Towards these goals, the following Specific Aims will be pursued to determine the: 1) Identity of the CfbCD reaction product. The exact reaction catalyzed by CfbCD, including the number of electrons transferred and whether it involves enzymatic cyclization, is unclear. Several approaches, including reaction stoichiometry measurements, spectroelectrochemistry, and magnetic resonance spectroscopy will be applied to elucidate the structure of the reaction product and establish whether CfbCD is a reductase or reductive cyclase. 2) Structure, conformational dynamics, and oligomerization state changes of CfbCD. Significant insight into the mechanism and allosteric regulation of CfbCD can be obtained by assessing changes in the structure and dynamics of the complex during the catalytic cycle. To accomplish this, a combination of size-exclusion chromatography, hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry, molecular dynamics simulations, and high-resolution structural methods will be employed. 3) Source, order, and stereochemistry of proton additions during CfbCD catalysis. Details regarding the order and stereochemistry of proton additions during the CfbCD reaction will be uncovered using a combined spectroscopic and computational approach. Complementary mechanistic studies employing site-directed mutagenesis and substrate analogs will establish the identity of active site acid residues and the possible involvement of substrate-assisted catalysis during the CfbCD reaction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A New Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication System: Visual-Enhanced Cooperative Traffic Operations

The advent of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) has highlighted the necessity for robust communication systems between vehicles and their environment. This study introduces a novel vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication system, termed the Visual-Enhanced Cooperative Traffic Operations (VECTOR) system. The VECTOR system addresses the need for robust communication by converting dynamic data (including velocity and yaw angle data) into binary code, which is displayed on an LED panel mounted on the top of the vehicle. Following vehicles detect this panel and decode the information using a camera, implementing a visual-based communication method. VECTOR system employs a comprehensive five-module process. Initially, polynomial fitting techniques are applied to velocity data over fixed time intervals using third-degree polynomials, with validation via R² and MSE metrics. The second module converts velocity and yaw angle data into binary form, thereby enhancing detection and processing efficiency. The third module focuses on improving detection stability across various environmental conditions to enhance traffic safety. The fourth module decodes the binary data back into trajectory information, ensuring the fidelity of velocity and yaw angles. The final module integrates eco-control through the VECTOR system, employing advanced control algorithms to minimize energy consumption in CAVs. Experimental evaluations conducted using a modified CAV test platform based on the Lincoln MKZ demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the VECTOR system, achieving a 75% R-squared accuracy rate in replicating original velocity data. This methodology not only highlights potential applications but also underscores significant implications for advancing CAV technology.

Ma, Ke↗

Advanced Ceramic Membranes/Modules for Ultra Efficient Hydrogen (H2) Production/Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture for Coal-Based Polygeneration Plants: Fabrication, Testing and CFD Modeling

Inorganic membrane-based systems are a promising technology for precombustion CO2 capture with simultaneous H2 production. State-of-the-art packages for high temperature and pressure service consist of multiple tube membrane bundles prepared in a "candle filter" configuration, in which the membrane tubes are open at one end and sealed at the other. This configuration is used for practical reasons, specifically the need to minimize problems due to thermal expansion mismatch between the ceramic tube bundle and the steel housing. However, the primary technical problem with the candle filter format for commercial-scale installations is the inability to purge the tube side (typically the permeate side), a feature that is crucial for high H2 recovery. In this study, the focus is to design and fabricate the first dual-end open full ceramic multiple tube membrane bundle that enables tube side (permeate) purge for gas separation applications. An additional key feature of this design is the simplified module layout, as the membrane bundles can be installed end-to-end with tube side (permeate) flow directly from one bundle to the next. This layout simplifies the membrane to housing seals and yields significant improvement in membrane packing density. Detailed focus areas in our studies include: (i) Materials development and preparation of the tube-to-tube sheet potting for the dual-ended bundle; (ii) the sealing and optimal module configuration design to minimize membrane stress upon module mounting; (iii) the demonstration, via the fabrication of CMS and Pd-alloy membranes supported on full-size, dual-ended ceramic support bundles, of the first example of a purgeable ceramic membrane and module; and (iv) development of a CFD model of the membrane module for calculation of feed flow distribution, and for use in scale-up, and capital cost estimating. The CFD model was validated using experimental data with the multi-tubular membrane system, employing He/N2 as a model gas mixture (surrogate for H2/CO2), and has been shown to be quite accurate. Employing the model, we are able to study the effects of operating pressure and temperature, feed and sweep gas flow rates, and the choice of membrane tube configuration on system performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Enhancing Modeling and Simulation for Effective Protection Strategies

This report was created by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to document the principles and methodology of performance data collection and integration with modeling and simulation tools to better facilitate the performance evaluation of physical protection systems (PPS). Results and conclusions from the use of modeling and simulation tools are only as good as the data employed by the tools when conducting analysis. Acquiring the performance testing data necessary to ensure effective evaluation can be a complex and sometimes daunting process. It is the desire of the organization to provide guidance that eases the burdens associated with pursuit of these objectives. This document draws heavily upon longstanding principles of systems engineering that have been developed and employed by SNL in the discipline of security since the 1970s. The scope of this document is constrained to the testing of system components and integration of data that is applicable within the context of PPS performance analysis using two tools that have been developed by SNL, PathTrace© and Scribe3D©. For guidance related to testing and evaluation more broadly, the manuals and reports referenced by this document can be consulted.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Predict Novel Eutectic Alloys

The goal of this project was to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the fractional composition and melting point of eutectic alloys using fundamental atomic properties as inputs. The fundamental properties considered include atomic number, atomic weight, atomic radius, valence electron concentration, electronegativity, and electron affinity. The project involved several phases, starting with data preparation, where phase diagram data was harvested from the ASM International database. Approximately 1300 binary eutectics were collected and cleaned to ensure relevance and accuracy. A regression model was selected for training, utilizing a rectified linear unit as the activation function. Various model configurations were evaluated for predictive accuracy, with validation techniques employed to ensure robustness. The model demonstrated predictive capabilities above random guessing and was able to achieve up to 11% accuracy under certain conditions. An ablative test identified atomic radius and valence electron concentration as critical inputs for model performance. Incorporating the melting point of atomic constituents improved accuracy significantly, although ultimately the model’s predictive capability still fell short of the 80% target. This report details the methodology, results, and implications of the research, contributing to the understanding of employing artificial intelligence to predict the phase transition behavior of eutectic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring Nonmotorized Travel in New York State Using 2017 National Household Travel Survey Data

This report presents systematic analysis of nonmotorized travel behavior within New York State (NYS) utilizing 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. As walking and biking assume increasingly prominent roles in advancing active transportation objectives, accessible mobility, and sustainable transportation systems, comprehensive understanding of these modal patterns becomes essential for evidence-based policy development and strategic planning initiatives. Recognizing the substantial geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic heterogeneity characterizing NYS—spanning from the concentrated urban fabric of New York City (NYC) to dispersed suburban and rural contexts—this analysis employs the structured "4Ws" analytical framework to examine participant demographics, spatial and temporal distributions, and motivational factors underlying active transportation choices relative to motorized alternatives. This methodological approach captures modal behavior patterns, user characteristics, trip purposes, and temporal variations across the state's diverse contexts. Additionally, the research examines behavioral differences among distinct user classifications, including walk-only and bike-only travelers, while conducting comparative analysis of nonmotorized travel patterns between ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) and non-ALICE household categories.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

U.S. Department of Energy Solar District Cup Collegiate Design Competition

The Solar District Cup is a multidisciplinary collegiate competition that challenges student teams to design and model standalone solar and solar-plus-storage systems for multiple buildings on a local electrical distribution network, such as a college campus, across a development, or in a district. Students learn cross-cutting skills that prepare them to become part of the next generation of the distributed energy workforce. Student teams act as renewable energy developers proposing to solar and solar-plus-storage system requests. Students, faculty, and prospective employers can benefit from knowing about this program and what students learn--either immediately as participants, mentors, or judges, or as potential employers of Solar District Cup alumni. RE+ is also one of our competition partners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

When and Why Hiring and Training Occur: A Survey of Building Efficiency Contractors

As state and local governments, along with homeowners, work to enhance building energy performance, a sufficiently skilled energy-efficiency workforce is essential for implementing solutions at scale. In recent years, employers in the energy efficiency sector, including building performance contractors, have frequently reported challenges finding qualified workers. Additionally, as building performance technologies evolve and become more sophisticated, current workers need to acquire new skills and practices to maintain high-quality work. This study surveyed 209 contractors involved in building energy performance projects across 37 U.S. states, Washington, D.C., Guam, and the Marshall Islands. The survey aimed to understand their experiences in the labor market, their business practices, and their decision-making processes when hiring new workers and training existing employees. The findings highlight contractors' motivations and considerations in hiring and training, as well as the most significant challenges they face in the labor market. These insights can help workforce development practitioners design training programs that are aligned with workforce needs and responsive to employer concerns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantification of LEU Holdup using gamma ray imaging and inverse transport solver

Holdup is the residual amount of special nuclear material (SNM) remaining in a processing facility after the bulk materials have been cleaned out. In commercial uranium processing facilities, quantification of holdup is a major challenge because of the highly variable shapes and sizes of the deposits. Any method that attempts to generalize and calibrate deposit shapes in order to quantify holdup will be prone to high uncertainties. Uncertainties on the order of ±50% are typical in holdup results. In international safeguards applications, a ±50% uncertainty can result in a large amount of material unaccounted for (MUF) thereby increasing the difficulty of detecting material diversion and facility misuse. An imaging-based methodology has been developed with the objective of significantly reducing this uncertainty by using the true deposit shape, instead of relying on oversimplified geometric assumptions. The project is a collaboration between ORNL, Y-12, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN. Uranium sources of known masses were measured using the Germanium Gamma-ray Imager (GeGI), a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, creating a pixelated map for each spectral bin. Two different gamma imaging methods are employed in this work: coded aperture imaging and Compton imaging. A validated MonteCarlo model of the detector has been developed using the GEANT4 code for determining the intrinsic response of the detector, its enclosure, and the coded aperture mask. An inverse transport solver based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo approach known as Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) is employed to use the measurement data from the image pixels (coded aperture or Compton) to solve for the mass of 235 U in the deposit. A reliable method based on the DREAM solver has been developed to flag the infinite thickness condition of a uranium deposit. The project team is working towards improving the image reconstruction for Compton imaging so that a better localization of the source can be achieved. Besides treating the coded aperture and Compton imaging methods independently, the project is also evaluating a combined method that uses the Compton scatter data from a coded aperture measurement. GEANT4 simulations are being performed to evaluate the combined approach. The impact on the DREAM optimization as the source thickness progressively approaches infinite thickness is being evaluated. A number of uranium sources available at ORNL have been measured, and the DREAM results have been tested and validated for the coded aperture imaging. A similar effort will be carried out to validate the Compton based method once the development of algorithms for better localization are complete. The imaging based quantification is very amenable to unattended monitoring of holdup accumulation at key measurement points. A proof of concept measurement has been completed to demonstrate this capability The current work used the high energy resolution imager GeGI. However, the approach and methodologies are applicable to other imagers such as the cadmium zin telluride (CZT) based imager manufactured by H3D, Inc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗