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NASA NTRS2018

Automated Contingency Management for Water Recycling System

To enable effective management, planning, and operations for future missions that involve a crewed space habitat, operational support must be migrated from Earth to the habitat. Intelligent System Health Management technologies (ISHM) promise to enable the future space habitats to increase the safety and mission success while minimizing operational risks. In this paper, Water Recycling System (WRS) deployed at NASA Ames Research Center's Sustainability Base is used for verification and validation of the proposed solution. Our work includes the development of the WRS simulation model based on its dynamic physical characteristics and the design of Automatic Contingency Management (ACM) framework that integrates fault diagnosis and optimization. In WRS modeling, a nominal model with fault injectors is developed. Fault detection and isolation techniques are then developed for isolating causes and identifying the severity of the faults. Dynamic Programming (DP) based fault mitigation strategies are designed to accommodate the faults in the system. A series of simulations are presented with different fault modes and the results indicate that the proposed ACM system can alleviate the fault in the WRS optimally regarding energy consumption and effects of the fault.

Systems Health Management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From IMM to IMPACT: Enhanced Functionality for Exploration Missions

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is an evidence-based decision support tool used to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for manned spaceflight missions. The IMM is baselined to the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the spaceflight environment of low earth orbit and the ISS medical resource capability. IMPACT is the next generation evidence-based decision support tool currently under development by the Human Research Program to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for future exploration missions to the moon and Mars. IMPACT is being designed to provide a comprehensive integrated suite of decision support tools for mission planners. This presentation will focus on the lessons learned from IMM and the enhanced functionalities of IMPACT.

E L Kerstman↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation: An Earth Science Imaging Spectroscopy Mission

The Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation, EMIT, is planned to operate from the International Space Station starting no earlier than the fall of 2021. EMIT will use visible to short wavelength infrared imaging spectroscopy to determine the mineral composition of the arid land dust source regions of the Earth to advance our knowledge of the radiative forcing effect of these aerosols. Mineral dust emitted into the atmosphere under high wind conditions is an element of the Earth system with many impacts to the Earth’s energy balance, atmosphere, surface, and oceans. The Earth’s mineral dust cycle with source, transport, and deposition phases are studied with advanced Earth System Models. Because the chemical composition, optical and surface properties of soil particles vary strongly with the mineral composition of the source, these models require knowledge of surface soil mineral dust source composition knowledge to accurately understand dust impacts on the Earth system now and in the future. At present, compositional knowledge of the Earth’s mineral dust source regions from existing data sets is uncertain as a result of limited measurements. EMIT will use spectroscopically derived surface mineral composition to update the prescribe boundary conditions for state-of-the-art Earth System Models. The EMIT-initialized models will be used to investigate the impact of direct radiative forcing in the Earth system that depends strongly on the composition of the mineral dust aerosols emitted into the atmosphere. These new measurements and related products will be used to address the EMIT science objectives and made available to the science community for additional investigations. An overview of the EMIT science, development, and mission is presented in this paper.

Green, Robert O.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight and Direct to Earth/Space Relay Communication System Architecture for GSFC CubeSat Missions

The CubeSat platform is finding increasing use in space science applications due to its low cost and comparative ease of launch. It is becoming a key scientific discovery tool in low Earth orbit (LEO) and beyond, including geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO), the Lagrange Points, Lunar missions, and more. The increasing complexity of these missions and their scientific goals must be supported by equal advancements in communications technology. Higher data rates and greater reliability are required every year. However, the reduced Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) constraints of CubeSat platforms introduce unique challenges in the area of satellite communications. There is currently a lack of communication equipment tailored specifically to the CubeSat platform. This lack of standardized, tested equipment extends development time and reduces mission confidence. Furthermore, missions utilizing the CubeSat platform are often subject to more difficult design constraints. Antenna placement, size, and pointing are often subordinate to the requirements of the payload instruments and mission goals. Traditional link margin estimation techniques are insufficient in these cases, as they emphasize worst case scenarios. In reality the actual link parameters may vary widely even during a single pass. This presents new challenges in predicting communications performance and scheduling ground station contacts, but also new opportunities for improving efficiency. This paper presents the integration, testing, and validation process for a new software defined radio (SDR) designed for the CubeSat platform in conjunction with Vulcan Wireless, Inc. The SDR is planned for use on 5 upcoming CubeSat missions at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) including a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) mission and it may also serve as a standard and well-tested option for future missions by enabling a standardized, rapid and low cost CubeSat communication system network integration process. Detailed simulations have been developed to estimate the communication performance of these missions, taking the unique antenna placements and attitude behavior of each satellite into account. These simulations allow a much more accurate analysis of the expected link margin, which varies considerably during each pass for the NASA Space Relay (SR) and Direct to Earth (DTE) network. The modelling procedures are outlined, and the results are used to predict communications performance of the missions.

Space Networks↗

NASA NTRS2024

Forecasting with the GESO-CF System and Other NASA Resources to Support Air Quality Management

Air quality (AQ) is a major and growing concern for public health around the world. Economic development, population growth, and climate change are all expected to exacerbate already poor AQ in many regions. Further-more, AQ is often only sparsely monitored with reference-grade in-situ instruments. NASA resources and products have the potential to help in addressing this AQ data gap. The GEOS-CF (Goddard Earth Observing System –Composition Forecasting) global atmospheric composition modeling system is run each day at a global scale to provide recent estimates and five-day forecasts at hourly temporal resolution of atmospheric constituents relevant to AQ. NASA satellite missions (along with those of other space agencies) provide remotely-sensed estimates of atmospheric composition relevant to AQ. This paper gives a brief over-view of these capabilities, and outlines the efforts underway to combine model forecasts, satellite retrievals, and surface-based measurements to provide more comprehensive and accurate estimates and forecasts of local AQ which will be broadly applicable and accessible globally.

Forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2012

Determining the Probability of Violating Upper-Level Wind Constraints for the Launch of Minuteman III Ballistic Missiles at Vandenberg Air Force Base

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman Ill ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to analyze VAFB sounding data with the goal of determining the probability of violating (PoV) their upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a tool that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. In order to calculate the probability of exceeding each constraint, the AMU collected and analyzed historical data from VAFB. The historical sounding data were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory archive for the years 1994-2011 and then stratified into four sub-seasons: January-March, April-June, July-September, and October-December. The AMU determined the theoretical distributions that best fit the maximum wind speed and maximum wind shear datasets and applied this information when calculating the averages and standard deviations needed for the historical and real-time PoV calculations. In addition, the AMU included forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh model. This information provides further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours on the day of launch. The AMU developed an interactive graphical user interface (GUI) in Microsoft Excel using Visual Basic for Applications. The GUI displays the critical sounding data easily and quickly for LWOs on day of launch. This tool will replace the existing one used by the 30 OSSWF, assist the LWOs in determining the probability of exceeding specific wind threshold values, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast for the launch customer. This presentation will describe how the AMU calculated the historical and real-time PoV values for the specific upper-level wind launch constraints and outline the development of the interactive GUI display.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources: Agriculture. Part 1: Overview

Potential economic benefits obtainable from a state-of-the-art ERS system in the resource area of intensive use of living resources, agriculture, are studied. A spectrum of equal capability (cost saving), increased capability, and new capability benefits are quantified. These benefits are estimated via ECON developed models of the agricultural marketplace and include benefits of improved production and distribution of agricultural crops. It is shown that increased capability benefits and new capability benefits result from a reduction of losses due to disease and insect infestation given ERS's capability to distinguish crop vigor and from the improvement in world trade negotiations given ERS's worldwide surveying capability.

Kornhauser, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Understanding the Sun-Earth Libration Point Orbit Formation Flying Challenges For WFIRST and Starshade

In order to fly an occulter in formation with a telescope at the Sun-Earth L2 (SEL2) Libration Point, one must have a detailed understanding of the dy-namics that govern the restricted three body system. For initial purposes, a linear approximation is satisfactory, but operations will require a high-fidelity modeling tool along with strategic targeting methods in order to be successful. This paper focuses on the challenging dynamics of the transfer trajectories to achieve the relative positioning of two spacecraft to fly in formation at SEL2, in our case, the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) and a proposed Starshade. By modeling the formation transfers using a high fidelity tool, an accurate V approximation can be made to as-sist with the development of the subsystem design required for a WFIRST and Starshade formation flight mission.

Sun-Earth-Moon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Present and Future Climate Services Based on NASA Data for the Energy, Agricultural, and Sustainable Buildings Communities

NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the renewable energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data at various temporal levels from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). Data users can access these data either through an intuitive data viewer, image services fully integrable with GIS analysis, connections in the cloud through an Amazon Web Services S3 Bucket, or fully customizable access through an API. Data provided by POWER has been successfully used by decision makers to support actions that address climate change. For example, POWER data has been used to remotely monitor solar array fields and integrated in a sizing tool for off-grid solar and storage systems. POWER data has also been coupled with key building decision tools to support design and retrofitting of building energy systems for energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases. POWER is now developing climate services to provide time series of the projected future evolution of key quantities that interest our users, such as heating/cooling degree days, temperature, wind speed, and downwelling solar flux. We demonstrate the potential of the new climate services by presenting here a range of possible future changes in these quantities at different NASA centers across the continental United States. These data services are based on downscaled climate model data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data set. We highlight the important insights that new climate services can provide. Our climate services will help our user communities quantify the impacts of climate change to support their key decisions in planning for the future, both inside and outside the Federal Government, especially for decisions in renewable energy and in building heating and cooling.

Bradley Hegyi↗

NASA NTRS2013

International Space Station Accomplishments Update: Scientific Discovery, Advancing Future Exploration, and Benefits Brought Home to Earth

Throughout the history of the International Space Station (ISS), crews on board have conducted a variety of scientific research and educational activities. Well into the second year of full utilization of the ISS laboratory, the trend of scientific accomplishments and educational opportunities continues to grow. More than 1500 investigations have been conducted on the ISS since the first module launched in 1998, with over 700 scientific publications. The ISS provides a unique environment for research, international collaboration and educational activities that benefit humankind. This paper will provide an up to date summary of key investigations, facilities, publications, and benefits from ISS research that have developed over the past year. Discoveries in human physiology and nutrition have enabled astronauts to return from ISS with little bone loss, even as scientists seek to better understand the new puzzle of "ocular syndrome" affecting the vision of up to half of astronauts. The geneLAB campaign will unify life sciences investigations to seek genomic, proteomic, and metabolomics of the effect of microgravity on life as a whole. Combustion scientists identified a new "cold flame" phenomenon that has the potential to improve models of efficient combustion back on Earth. A significant number of instruments in Earth remote sensing and astrophysics are providing new access to data or nearing completion for launch, making ISS a significant platform for understanding of the Earth system and the universe. In addition to multidisciplinary research, the ISS partnership conducts a myriad of student led research investigations and educational activities aimed at increasing student interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Over the past year, the ISS partnership compiled new statistics of the educational impact of the ISS on students around the world. More than 43 million students, from kindergarten to graduate school, with more than 28 million teachers located in 49 countries have participated in some aspect of ISS educational activities. These activities include student-developed investigations, education competitions, and classroom versions of ISS investigations, participating in ISS investigator experiments, ISS hardware development, educational demonstrations, and cultural activities. Through the many inquiry-based educational activities, students and teachers are encouraged to participate in the ISS program thus motivating the next generation of students to pursue careers in STEM.

Thumm, Tracy↗

NASA NTRS1982

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation statistics

A two-component rain model has been developed for calculating attenuation statistics. In contrast to most other attenuation prediction models, the two-component model calculates the occurrence probability for volume cells or debris attenuation events. The model performed significantly better than the International Radio Consultative Committee model when used for predictions on earth-satellite paths. It is expected that the model will have applications in modeling the joint statistics required for space diversity system design, the statistics of interference due to rain scatter at attenuating frequencies, and the duration statistics for attenuation events.

Crane, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA's Geospatial Interoperability Office(GIO)Program

NASA produces vast amounts of information about the Earth from satellites, supercomputer models, and other sources. These data are most useful when made easily accessible to NASA researchers and scientists, to NASA's partner Federal Agencies, and to society as a whole. A NASA goal is to apply its data for knowledge gain, decision support and understanding of Earth, and other planetary systems. The NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) Geospatial Interoperability Office (GIO) Program leads the development, promotion and implementation of information technology standards that accelerate and expand the delivery of NASA's Earth system science research through integrated systems solutions. Our overarching goal is to make it easy for decision-makers, scientists and citizens to use NASA's science information. NASA's Federal partners currently participate with NASA and one another in the development and implementation of geospatial standards to ensure the most efficient and effective access to one another's data. Through the GIO, NASA participates with its Federal partners in implementing interoperability standards in support of E-Gov and the associated President's Management Agenda initiatives by collaborating on standards development. Through partnerships with government, private industry, education and communities the GIO works towards enhancing the ESE Applications Division in the area of National Applications and decision support systems. The GIO provides geospatial standards leadership within NASA, represents NASA on the Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) Coordination Working Group and chairs the FGDC's Geospatial Applications and Interoperability Working Group (GAI) and supports development and implementation efforts such as Earth Science Gateway (ESG), Space Time Tool Kit and Web Map Services (WMS) Global Mosaic. The GIO supports NASA in the collection and dissemination of geospatial interoperability standards needs and progress throughout the agency including areas such as ESE Applications, the SEEDS Working Groups, the Facilities Engineering Division (Code JX) and NASA's Chief Information Offices (CIO). With these agency level requirements GIO leads, brokers and facilitates efforts to, develop, implement, influence and fully participate in standards development internationally, federally and locally. The GIO also represents NASA in the OpenGIS Consortium and ISO TC211. The OGC has made considerable progress in regards to relations with other open standards bodies; namely ISO, W3C and OASIS. ISO TC211 is the Geographic and Geomatics Information technical committee that works towards standardization in the field of digital geographic information. The GIO focuses on seamless access to data, applications of data, and enabling technologies furthering the interoperability of distributed data. Through teaming within the Applications Directorate and partnerships with government, private industry, education and communities, GIO works towards the data application goals of NASA, the ESE Applications Directorate, and our Federal partners by managing projects in four categories: Geospatial Standards and Leadership, Geospatial One Stop, Standards Development and Implementation, and National and NASA Activities.

Weir, Patricia↗

NASA NTRS2011

Small Orbital Debris Mitigation Mission Architecture

Small orbital debris in LEO (1-10 cm in size) presents a clear and present danger to operational LEO spacecraft. This debris field has dramatically increased (nearly doubled) in recent years following the Chinese ASAT Test in 2007 and the Iridium/Cosmos collision in 2009. Estimates of the number of small debris have grown to 500,000 objects after these two events; previously the population was 300,000 objects. These small, untracked debris objects (appproximately 500,000) outnumber the larger and tracked objects (appproximately 20,000) by a factor 25 to 1. Therefore, the risk of the small untracked debris objects to operational spacecraft is much greater than the risk posed by the larger and tracked LEO debris objects. A recent study by The Aerospace Corporation found that the debris environment will increase the costs of maintaining a constellation of government satellites by 5%, a constellation of large commercial satellites by 11%, and a constellation of factory built satellites by 26% from $7.6 billion to $9.57 billion. Based upon these facts, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) performed an architecture study on Small Orbital Debris Active Removal (SODAR) using a space-based nonweapons- class laser satellite for LEO debris removal. The goal of the SODAR study was to determine the ability of a space-based laser system to remove the most pieces of debris (1 cm to 10 cm, locations unknown), in the shortest amount of time, with the fewest number of spacecraft. The ESA developed MASTER2005 orbital debris model was used to probabilistically classify the future debris environment including impact velocity, magnitude, and directionality. The study ground rules and assumptions placed the spacecraft into a high inclination Low Earth Orbit at 800 km as an initial reference point. The architecture study results found that a spacecraft with an integrated forward-firing laser is capable of reducing the small orbital debris flux within a 60 to 100 km orbital shell by a significant amount within the one spacecraft's operational lifetime. The technology developments required for such an architecture to be successfully employed are: 1) A pico-pulsed, space qualified laser and 2) The ability to detect and track a small LEO small debris object from a space based platform. Therefore, a conceptual design for a demonstration satellite to showcase the ability to detect and track small orbital debris was completed

Wiegmann, Bruce M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Thermal Desktop Modeling of the RRM3 On-Orbit Cryogenic Methane Storage and Active Cooling Experiment

The storing of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA as it moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit (LEO) and beyond. The Robotic Refueling Mission–3 (RRM3) experiment launched in 2018 and was designed to demonstrate tank self-pressurization during storage and active cooling of liquid methane in microgravity. Creating accurate models using existing datasets from flight experiments such as RRM3 is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for future flight systems. The goal of this work was to create a working model in Thermal Desktop of the RRM3 source Dewar during the microgravity self-pressurization experiment. The pressure rise, temperature distribution of the fluid inside the tank, and the wall temperatures were all tracked and compared with test data. Initial results show good agreement between each of these metrics and the experimental results. This work is ongoing and will yield further insights into the thermal behavior of cryogens in microgravity.

Tank self-pressurization↗

NASA NTRS1979

The terrestrial radiation environment and EVA's: Prediction requirements, model improvements, and warning systems

The total medical-biological impact of the Earth's space radiation environment on humans is a function of combined EVA and non-EVA exposure. In either case, the correct assessment of the eventual health risk to crew members is crucial to the success and viability of a project or mission. Aside from the medical-biological aspect itself, the validity of any assessment depends entirely on the existence of good and reliable models providing the high quality data that is needed for such evaluations, which should contain time histories of storm and substorm events, their intensities, their frequency of occurence, and their duration. Prediction requirements, advantageous and desirable model developments and improvements, and systems that need to be designed and tested, which would alert space crews and maintenance personnel about impending radiation danger are outlined.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

MoSST DAS: The First Working Geomagnetic Data Assimilation System

The Earth possesses an internal magnetic field (geomagnetic field) generated by convection in the outer core (geodynamo). Previous efforts have been focused along two distinct paths: (1) numerical geodynamo modeling to understand the origin of the geomagnetic field, and the mechanisms of geomagnetic secular variations (SV); and (2) geomagnetic field modeling to map the spatial/temporal variations of the field from geomagnetic data, and to derive core properties, e.g. inversion of core flow near the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Geomagnetic data assimilation is a new approach emerged over the past 5 years: surface observations are assimilated with geodynamo models for better understanding of the core dynamical state, and accurately prediction of SV. In collaboration with several geomagnetic research groups, we have developed the first working geomagnetic data assimilation system, Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, and Three-dimensional (MoSST) DAS, that includes the MoSST numerical dynamo model; 7000 years of geomagnetic field maps from several field models utilizing satellite and ground observatory data, historical magnetic records and archeo/paleo magnetic data; and an ensemble based optimal interpolation (01) assimilation algorithm. With this system, we have demonstrated clearly that the assimilated core dynamical state is substantially different from those of pure geodynamo simulations. Ensemble assimilation runs also show the convergence of the assimilated solutions inside the core, suggesting that the simulation state is pulled closer to the truth via data assimilation. The forecasts from this system are also very accurate: the 5-year forecast of the geomagnetic field agrees very well with the observations; and the 5-year secular variation forecast is more accurate than the IGRF SV forecast models in the past. Using geomagnetic records up to 2009, we have made an SV forecast for the period from 2010-2015, and is a candidate SV model for IGRF-11.

Kuang, Weijia↗