Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “EXPECTATION VALUE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53

The Influence of Redox Conditions on the Seismic Properties of Polycrystalline Olivine

Eight olivine specimens were fabricated by use of a solgel method and hot-pressing at 1200 degrees Centigrade and 300 megapascals (MPa) inside of welded Pt capsules. Each hot-pressed specimen was then recovered, precision ground, and wrapped in Pt, Ni or NiFe foil to vary oxygen fugacity (fO2) during the subsequent forced torsional oscillation measurements. Mechanical testing was conducted at 10 oscillation periods between 1 and 1000 seconds, at a confining pressure of 200 MPa, during a slow staged-cooling from a maximum temperature of 1200 degrees Centigrade down to room temperature. After mechanical testing, each specimen was axially sectioned and EBSD (Electron BackScatter Diffraction) was used for the determination of the representative grain size, and grain size distribution of each sample. In addition, each longitudinal section was mapped via FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) to determine the spatial distribution and concentrations of chemically bound and molecular water. Amongst these eight specimens, chemically bound ‘water’ contents were observed to vary between 0 and 1150 atom parts per million (ppm) H/Si, and molecular water concentrations varied between 0 and 245 atom ppm H/Si. Our forced-oscillation results demonstrate that the measured magnitude of anelastic relaxation within the experimental ‘window’ of oscillation periods is unrelated to the water content. Rather, a relationship was observed between the magnitude of anelastic relaxation and the prevailing redox conditions, which is influenced by the choice of metal sleeving used during the mechanical test. Further, regardless of water content or metal sleeving, each specimen exhibits coupled variations in shear modulus and dissipation within the observational window, indicative of ‘high-temperature background’ behavior, that can be described by a Burgers-type model. During initial fitting of the Burgers models, the unrelaxed shear modulus at a reference temperature of 900°C (elastic unloading/reloading shear modulus G (sub UR)) and the temperature derivative of the unrelaxed shear modulus (dGU/dT), were treated as adjustable parameters. For all Fe-bearing olivine samples we observe deficits of G (sub UR) and increased values of dGU/dT, relative to the expected elastic (anharmonic) behavior for Fo (Forsterite content percentage) (sub 90) olivine. This behavior is indicative of anelastic relaxation occurring at shorter periods than observable within the ‘window’ of oscillation periods used in the mechanical test. Moving towards a comprehensive and seismologically applicable Burgers model, which includes this newly observed effect of redox conditions on anelastic relaxation, we will present our progress on reconciling truly anharmonic and elastic behavior of Fo (sub 90) olivine with our observed forced-oscillation data.

Cline, C. J., II↗

On the Maximum Stellar Rotation to Form a Black Hole without an Accompanying Luminous Transient

The collapse of a massive star with low angular momentum content is commonly argued to result in the formation of a black hole without an accompanying bright transient. Our goal in this Letter is to understand the flow in and around a newly-formed black hole, involving accretion and rotation, via general relativistic hydrodynamics simulations aimed at studying the conditions under which infalling material can accrete without forming a centrifugally supported structure and, as a result, generate no effective feedback. If the feedback from the black hole is, on the other hand, significant, the collapse would be halted and we suggest that the event is likely to be followed by a bright transient. We find that feedback is only efficient if the specific angular momentum of the infalling material at the innermost stable circular orbit exceeds that of geodesic circular flow at that radius by at least≈20%. We use the results of our simulations to constrain the maximal stellar rotation rates of the disappearing massive progenitors PHL293B-LBV and N6946-BH1, and to provide an estimate of the overall rate of disappearing massive stars. We find that about a few percent of single O-type stars with measured rotational velocities are expected to spin below the critical value before collapse and are thus predicted to vanish without a trace.

Scott C Noble↗

X-Ray Polarization of Z-Type Neutron Star Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries II. Spectropolarimetric Analysis

IXPE has provided for the first time detailed energy- and time-resolved X-ray polarimetry of Z-type neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries (NS-LMXBs) as they move along their color-color diagrams (CCDs). These sources can reach the highest polarization observed for NS-LXMBs in the 2–8 keV range when they move along the horizontal branch. In a previous paper, we characterized the spectral state of a sample of Z-sources using the CCD and estimated the polarization with model-independent analysis. Here, we present detailed spectropolarimetric analysis for each source on each branch using data from IXPE, NICER, and NuSTAR. The continuum X-ray emission of all the sources is well described with a combination of thermal accretion disk emission plus a harder Comptonized component. In addition, reflection features, in particular the relativistically broadened Fe Kα line, are observed for our sources, except GX 5–1. For most of the sources and branches, the main contribution to the X-ray emission and polarization is due to Comptonization: moving from the horizontal branch (HB) to the normal branch (NB), the polarization degree (PD) in the 2–8 keV band varies from about 6% to 3–4%, while the PD is loosely constrained in the flaring branch (FB), due to the shorter exposures. These PD values are significantly higher than theoretical expectations for typical spreading or boundary layer configurations. The polarization of the disk is generally lower (below 3%) but still higher than predictions for an electron scattering-dominated, plane-parallel atmosphere above the disk observed at the corresponding inclination. Moreover, the polarization angle (PA) of the disk seems to be significantly misaligned and not perpendicular to that of Comptonization. We find no correlation between the polarization signal and the inclination, nor with the contribution of reflected photons throughout the Z-track.

accretion↗

Dynamic thermal behavior of polycrystalline LaB 6 hollow cathodes

Lanthanum hexaboride (LaB6) hollow cathodes have demonstrated a capability for long life operation, which is critical to many space exploration missions. Thermal characterization of LaB6 hollow cathodes has revealed lower than expected electron emitter temperatures when the cathode reaches a steady state. This phenomenon is observed at discharge currents ranging from 5 to 35 A and xenon mass flow rates of 5–25 SCCM in cathodes with three different orifice diameters. Thus, the currently accepted value of the work function for polycrystalline LaB 6 , 2.67 eV, does not describe well the emission characteristics of LaB6 hollow cathodes operating with internal gas discharges at a steady state. We use empirically measured temperatures combined with a model of the hollow cathode emitter and xenon discharge to estimate the value of the work function, yielding a value ranging from 2.1 to 2.44 eV. This lower work function value implies that LaB6 hollow cathodes are expected to have even longer lifetimes than previously anticipated, further establishing them as a more suited alternative to other conventional cathode technologies for the task of long duration travel. Direct measurements of the work function as a function of depth on a hollow cathode emitter using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and ion beam milling indicate that the work function decreases with depth. We postulate several mechanisms that could explain the observed work function enhancement. Altogether, our results have important implications to the design, study approach, and operation of LaB 6 cathodes and potentially other cathodes with hollow configuration. Finally, our work opens the question of why the work function is reduced upon interaction with Xe plasma.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Solar Wind Implantation into Lunar Regolith: Hydrogen Retention in a Surface with Defects

Solar wind protons are implanted directly into the top 100 nm of the lunar near-surface region, but can either quickly diffuse out of the surface or be retained, depending upon surface temperature and the activation energy, U, associated with the implantation site. In this work, we explore the distribution of activation energies upon implantation and the associated hydrogen-retention times; this for comparison with recent observation of OH on the lunar surface. We apply a Monte Carlo approach: for simulated solar wind protons at a given local time, we assume a distribution of U values with a central peak, U(sub c) and width, U(sub w), and derive the fraction retained for long periods in the near-surface. We find that surfaces characterized by a distribution with predominantly large values of U (greater than 1 eV) like that expected at defect sites will retain implanted H (to likely form OH). Surfaces with the distribution predominantly at small values of U (less than 0.2 eV) will quickly diffuse away implanted H. However, surfaces with a large portion of activation energies between 0.3 eV less than U less than 0.9 eV will tend to be H-retentive in cool conditions but transform into H-emissive surfaces when warmed (as when the surface rotates into local noon). These mid-range activation energies give rise to a diurnal effect with diffusive loss of H at noontime.

regolith↗

Density functionals combined with van der Waals corrections for graphene adsorbed on layered materials

Standard density functionals like Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) or Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) need a correction to account for long-range van der Waals (vdW) interaction. The damped Zaremba-Kohn model (dZK) starts from a formula for the vdW interaction of a distant atom with a solid surface, both with known dielectric properties, damps this formula at short range, and then treats an adsorbed molecule or atomic layer as a collection of renormalized atoms. Here, we extend this model to graphene adsorbed on semiconducting layered materials [bulk graphite and hBN, and multilayer transition metal dichalcogenides (TMD)] by including the C 4 asymptotic term and multiple electrostatic image effects due to the two surfaces of the substrate slabs in the vdW calculations. The resulting SCAN-vdW-dZK and PBE-vdW-dZK give approximately the same results for the systems considered here, in agreement with available reference values. The predicted binding energies are roughly 25% lower than those from SCAN+rVV10 (revised Vydrov and Van Voorhis 2010), and ~15% lower than those from PBE+rVV10. Since SCAN+rVV10 usually overbinds, the predicted binding energies by SCAN-vdW-dZK and PBE-vdW-dZK are expected to be closer to the true values. The predicted equilibrium binding distances from SCAN-vdW-dZK and PBE-vdW-dZK are slightly larger (~ 0.1 Å) than those from SCAN+rVV10, and close to those from SCAN. The binding energy depends upon the number of substrate layers more strongly in vdW-dZK than in rVV10. The C 4 -term contributions can be 40% of the total vdW interactions, and the C 5 term contributes about 10%. The effects of images and the back surfaces of slabs can contribute about 4–10%. The vdW interaction energy power laws from the vdW-dZK model for graphene adsorbed on multilayer MoS 2 show slowly varying decay to the pairwise exponent –4 with increasing separation $\textit{D}$, very similar to those obtained from the random-phase approximation and renormalization group approaches by Ambrosetti et al. Both the PBE-vdW-dZK and SCAN-vdW-dZK give a greater increase in interlayer binding energy when the TMD substrate changes from monolayer to four-layer for the graphene/TMD adsorption systems. This is consistent with the relevant electron-energy-loss spectroscopy experimental results showing increased dielectric response from the substrate with increasing substrate layer number.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Application of quadratic optimization to supersonic inlet control.

This paper describes the application of linear stochastic optimal control theory to the design of the control system for the air intake, the inlet, of a supersonic air-breathing propulsion system. The controls must maintain a stable inlet shock position in the presence of random airflow disturbances and prevent inlet unstart. Two different linear time invariant controllers are developed. One is designed to minimize a nonquadratic index, the expected frequency of inlet unstart, and the other is designed to minimize the mean square value of inlet shock motion. The quadratic equivalence principle is used to obtain a linear controller that minimizes the nonquadratic index. The two controllers are compared on the basis of unstart prevention, control effort requirements, and frequency response. It is concluded that while controls designed to minimize unstarts are desirable in that the index minimized is physically meaningful, computation time required is longer than for the minimum mean square shock position approach. The simpler minimum mean square shock position solution produced expected unstart frequency values which were not significantly larger than those of the nonquadratic solution.

Lehtinen, B.↗

Specification of the ISS Plasma Environment Variability

Quantifying the spacecraft charging risks and corresponding hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification describing the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide estimates of long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. Knowledge of the Te and Ne variability as well as the likelihood of extreme deviations from the mean values are required to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of potentially hazardous spacecraft charging environments for a given ISS construction stage and flight configuration. This paper describes the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements used to estimate Ne, Te variability in the ISS flight environment. The statistical variability analysis of Ne and Te enables calculation of the expected frequency of Occurrence of any particular values of Ne and Te, especially those that correspond to possibly hazardous spacecraft charging environments. The database used in the original analysis included measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites. Recent work on the database has added additional satellites to the database and ground based incoherent scatter radar observations as well. Deviations of the data values from the IRI estimated Ne, Te parameters for each data point provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. This technique, while developed specifically for the Space Station analysis, can also be generalized to provide ionospheric plasma environment risk specification models for low Earth orbit over an altitude range of 200 km through approximately 1000 km.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Specifying the ISS Plasma Environment

Quantifying the spacecraft charging risks and corresponding hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification describing the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IN) model typically only provide estimates of long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. Knowledge of the Te and Ne variability as well as the likelihood of extreme deviations from the mean values are required to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of potentially hazardous spacecraft charging environments for a given ISS construction stage and flight configuration. This paper describes the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements used to estimate Ne, Te variability in the ISS flight environment. The statistical variability analysis of Ne and Te enables calculation of the expected frequency of occurrence of any particular values of Ne and Te, especially those that correspond to possibly hazardous spacecraft charging environments. The database used in the original analysis included measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites. Recent work on the database has added additional satellites to the database and ground based incoherent scatter radar observations as well. Deviations of the data values from the IRI estimated Ne, Te parameters for each data point provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Radiative heat transfer in FLiBe molten salt participating medium in a vertical heated tube under forced and mixed convection laminar flows

The contribution of radiative heat transfer (RHT) to convective heat transfer in a heated vertical pipe with laminar flow and constant wall temperature, for FLiBe molten salt, is investigated computationally. The combined effects of conduction in the fluid, forced convection, buoyancy, temperature-dependent physical properties, and thermal radiation are investigated. The P1 approximation is employed in the discretization of the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE). The COMSOL Multiphysics software is used to generate the numerical solutions. The theoretical analysis developed here demonstrates that only for intermediate values of the optical thickness, i.e. τ D ~ O 1 , the participating media effects are expected to be important. This analysis is confirmed computationally and a value of τ D ≈ 4 is shown to lead to the highest increase in overall heat transfer behavior. Under forced convection, the Nusselt ratio N u total / N u no - rad reaches a peak value of 1.76 at τ D = 4 and z/D = 200 , and is less than 1.1 for τ D < 0 . 1 and τ D > 60 . Under aiding-flow mixed convection, N u total / N u no - rad reaches a peak of 1.34 at τ D = 4 . 2 and is less than 1.1 for τ D < 0 . 4 and τ D > 36 . Under opposing-flow mixed convection, Nu total / Nu no - rad reaches a peak of 1.81 at τ D = 4 . 2 and is less than 1.1 for τ D < 0 . 2 and τ D > 50 . RHT effects on the overall heat transfer are most pronounced in opposing mixed convection, where N u total / N u no - rad is 2.26 observed at z/D = 50 . The sensitivity to wall emissivity is evaluated; in forced convection, the peak N u total / N u no - rad is 1.66 at ε = 0 (reflective wall) and 2.04 at ε = 1 (absorptive wall). Finally, the sensitivity to pipe diameter is also discussed. Overall, for a vertical heated tube, radiative heat transfer effects lead to enhancement of heat transfer by as high as a factor of two, and they depend on the optical thickness of the flow, mixed convection environment ( Gr / R e 2 and direction of flow relative to the gravitational force), surface emissivity, and entrance effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

First Measurement of 𝐴 = 4 Hypernuclei and Antihypernuclei at the LHC

In this Letter, the first evidence of the $^4_{\bar{Λ}}$$\overline{He}$ antihypernucleus is presented, along with the first measurement at the LHC of the production of (anti)hypernuclei with mass number 𝐴 = 4, specifically (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$H and (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He. In addition, the antiparticle-to-particle ratios for both hypernuclei ($^4_{\bar{Λ}}$$\bar{H}$⁡/$^4_Λ$H and $^4_{\bar{Λ}}$$\overline{He}$/$^4_Λ$He) are shown, which are sensitive to the baryochemical potential of the strongly interacting matter created in heavy-ion collisions. The results are obtained from a data sample of central Pb-Pb collisions, collected during the 2018 LHC data taking at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{𝑠_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The yields measured for the average of the charge-conjugated states are found to be [0.78 ± 0.19⁢(stat) ± 0.17⁢(syst)] × 10 −6 for the (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$H and [1.08 ± 0.34⁢(stat)± 0.20⁢(syst)] × 10 −6 for the (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He, and the measured antiparticle-to-particle ratios are in agreement with unity. The presence of (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$H and (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He excited states is expected to strongly enhance the production yield of these hypernuclei. The yield values exhibit a combined deviation of 3.3⁢𝜎 from the theoretical ground-state-only expectation, while the inclusion of the excited states in the calculations leads to an agreement within 0.6⁢𝜎 with the present measurements. Additionally, the measured (anti)$^4_Λ$H and (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He masses are compatible with the world-average values within the uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Interaction and Synergism of Microbial Fuel Cell Bacteria within Methanogenesis

Biological hydrogen production from waste biomass has both terrestrial and Martian advanced life support applications. On earth, biological hydrogen production is being explored as a greenhouse neutral form of clean and efficient energy. In a permanently enclosed space habitat, carbon loop closure is required to reduce mission costs. Plants are grown to revitalize oxygen supply and are consumed by habitat inhabitants. Unharvested portions must then be recycled for reuse in the habitat. Several biological degradation techniques exist, but one process, biophotolysis, can be used to produce hydrogen from inedible plant biomass. This process is two-stage, with one stage using dark fermentation to convert plant wastes into organic acids. The second stage, photofermentation, uses photoheterotrophic purple non-sulfur bacteria with the addition of light to turn the organic acids into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Such a system can prove useful as a co-generation scheme, providing some of the energy needed to power a larger primary carbon recovery system, such as composting. Since butyrate is expected as one of the major inputs into photofermentation, a characterization study was conducted with the bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides SCJ, a novel photoheterotrophic non-sulfur purple bacteria, to examine hydrogen production performance at 10 mM-100 mM butyrate concentrations. As butyrate levels increased, hydrogen production increased up to 25 mM, and then decreased and ceased by 100 mM. Additionally, lag phase increased with butyrate concentration, possibly indicating some product inhibition. Maximal substrate conversion efficiency was 8.0%; maximal light efficiency was 0.89%; and maximal hydrogen production rate was 7.7 Umol/mg/cdw/hr (173 ul/mg cdw/hr). These values were either consistent or lower than expected from literature.

Klaus, David↗

Constraints on the Recent Rate of Lunar Regolith Accumulation from Diviner Observations

Many large craters on the lunar nearside show radar CPR signatures consistent with the presence of blocky ejecta blankets, to distances pre dicted to be covered by continuous ejecta. However, most of these sur faces show limited enhancements in both derived rock abundance and rock-free regolith temperatures calculated from Diviner nighttime infrar ed observations. This indicates that the surface rocks are covered by a layer of thermally insulating regolith material. By matching the results of one-dimensional thermal models to Diviner nighttime temperat ures, we have constrained the thermophysical properties of the upper regolith, and the thickness of regolith overlying proximal ejecta. We find that for all of the regions surveyed (all in the nearside highla nds), the nighttime cooling curves are best fit by a density profile that varies exponentially with depth, consistent with a linear mixture of rocks and regolith fines, with increasing rock content with depth . Our results show significant spatial variations in the density e-folding depth, H, among young crater ejecta regions, indicating differen ces in the thickness of accumulated regolith. However, away from youn g craters, the average regional "equilibrium" value of H (Heq) is remarkably consistent, and is on the order of 5 cm. As expected, near-rim ejecta associated with young craters show lower values of H, indicating a high rock content in the shallow subsurface; for older craters, the average value of H approaches the regional value of Heq. Calculat ed H values for young craters show a clear correlation with published ages, providing the first observational constraint on the recent rate of lunar regolith accumulation. In addition, this result may help to resolve the apparent discrepancy between ages calculated from small crater counts on melt ponds versus counts on continuous ejecta (e.g., King crater; Ashley et al., 2011, LPSC 42, abstract 2437). This method could, in principle, be extended to other airless bodies (e.g., aste roids), which would in turn constrain the recent impactor flux.

Ghent, R. R.↗

HDG-1 Experiment Irradiation Monitoring Data Qualification Final Report

SUMMARY The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Graphite Research and Development (GRD) Program is conducting a series of six experiments to quantify the effects of irradiation on nuclear-grade graphite. This report documents the qualification of irradiation monitoring data for the fifth experiment, High Dose Graphite-1 (HDG-1). Qualified monitoring data are required by the ART program to support the design and licensing of the first high-temperature reactor (HTR) nuclear plant. Data are classified as Qualified if they meet the usage requirements described in the experiment planning and quality assurance (QA) documents, Failed if they do not meet those requirements and provide no usable information, or Trend if they do not fully meet all requirements but still provide useful information subject to an assessment of how any deficiencies may affect a particular use of the data. HDG-1 irradiation began with Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) Cycle 168B on August 24, 2020, and concluded after Cycle 173C on January 27, 2025. The HDG-1 capsule was removed from the reactor core twice—during core internal change (CIC) Cycle 170A and powered axial locator mechanism (PALM) Cycle 172A—to prevent overheating of the graphite specimens during high-power PALM cycles. The capsule was therefore irradiated during a total of seven normal ATR cycles: 168B, 169A, 171A, 171B, 173A, 173B, and 173C. Irradiation monitoring data evaluated in this report include thermocouple (TC) temperature, gas flow rate, gas moisture, gas pressure, specimen load, and graphite stack displacement. Temperature. A total of 14,508,065 TC temperature records were captured. Of these, 13,901,785 (95.8%) are Qualified and 606,280 (4.2%) are Failed. The principal source of failed temperature data was the instrument failure of TC-9 (Zone 2) on June 24, 2024, and TC-10 (Zone 1) on July 5, 2024, near the end of Cycle 173A, which resulted in 595,554 Failed readings. An additional 379 missing values and 10,347 slightly negative values from TC-13 during ATR outages are also Failed. Neither TC-9 nor TC-10 was used as a temperature-control TC, and their failures did not compromise capsule condition monitoring. Correlation analysis of all 13 TCs found no evidence of virtual junction formation. Control chart analysis revealed clear downward drift of approximately 80°C for TC-6 (Zone 3) relative to other stable TCs, and possible downward drift of approximately 60°C for TC-13 relative to the Zone 5 control TC (TC-1), though TC-13 remained consistent with the Zone 2 control TC (TC-12). Gas flow. A total of 20,088,090 gas flow rate records were captured. Of these, 19,941,463 (99.3%) are Qualified and 146,627 (0.7%) are Failed due to missing values. All argon, helium, and total gas flow data were within expected ranges throughout the irradiation. Gas moisture. A total of 1,116,005 outlet gas moisture values were captured. Of these, 1,101,421 (98.7%) are Qualified and 14,584 (1.3%) are Failed, comprising 14,556 out-of-range values and 28 missing values. The out-of-range moisture values exceeded 22,000 ppmv for approximately 1 week at the beginning of Cycle 173A, when accumulated moisture evaporated after the capsule was retrieved from water storage during PALM Cycle 172A and reinserted into the east flux trap. Moisture levels returned to below 25 ppmv for the remaining three cycles, and the transient high-moisture event did not affect the integrity of specimen irradiation. Gas pressure. A total of 7,812,035 gas pressure values were captured. Of these, 6,642,048 (85.0%) are Qualified and 1,169,987 (15.0%) outlet pressure values are Failed, comprising 718,537 zero outlet pressure values due to sensor failure from Cycle 168B through Cycle 171B, 54,550 missing values, and 396,900 too-low outlet pressure values, ranging from 1.1 to 1.6 psia after sensor replacement during Cycle 173A. Load. A total of 6,696,030 load values were captured. Of these, 6,694,580 (99.98%) are Qualified and 1,450 (0.02%) are Failed due to missing values. Applied loads to the six specimen stacks were stable throughout the irradiation. Stack displacement. A total of 6,696,030 displacement values were captured. Of these, 5,713,297 (85.32%) are Qualified and 3,781 (0.06%) are Failed due to missing values. Stack displacement increased consistently throughout the irradiation, reaching approximately 3.08 in. for Channels 5 and 6 by the end of irradiation. 978,952 (14.62%) substantially elevated displacements observed for Channel 6 beginning in Cycle 171A and for Channel 5 beginning in Cycle 173A are assigned Trend status. Raising pressure. A total of 1,115,999 raising pressure values were captured. Of these, 1,115,430 (99.95%) are Qualified and 569 (0.05%) are Failed due to missing values. Ram pressure. A total of 6,696,030 ram pressure values were captured. Of these, 6,692,249 (99.95%) are Qualified and 3,484 (0.05%) are Failed due to missing values. Stack raising was perf

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Chaotic dynamics of corotating magnetospheric convection

The corotating plasma convection system of the Jovian magnetosphere is analyzed. The macroscopic (mhd) model introduced by Summers and Mu, (1992) that incorporates the effects of microdiffusion is extended by including previously neglected density effects. We reduce the governing partial differential equations to a third-order ordinary differential system by the Galerkin technique of mode truncation. We carry out such a severe truncation partly in the interests of tractability, and leave open the question of the efficacy of adding additional modes. Exhaustive numerical integrations are carried out to calculate the long-term solutions, and we discover that a rich array of plasma motions is possible, dependent on the value of the height-integrated ionospheric Pederson conductivity Sigma. If Sigma is less than a certain critical value Sigma(sub c), then plasma motion can be expected to be chaotic (or periodic), while if Sigma is greater than Sigma(sub c), then steady state convection is expected. In the former case, whether the plasma motion is chaotic or periodic (and, if periodic, the magnitude of the period) can be very sensitive to the value of Sigma. The value of Sigma(sub c), which is a function of a parameter q that occurs in the assumed form of the stationary radial profile (varies as L(exp -q) of the plasma mass per unit magnetic flux, lies well within the accepted range of values of Sigma for Jupiter, i.e. Sigma greater than or equal to 0.1 mho and less than or equal to 10 mho.

Summers, Danny↗

A Step-Down Test Procedure for Wavelet Shrinkage Using Bootstrapping

Wavelet thresholding (or shrinkage) attempts to remove the noises existing in the signals while preserving inherent pattern characteristics in the reconstruction of true signals. For data-denoising purpose, we present a new wavelet thresholding procedure which employs the step-down testing idea of identifying active contrasts in unreplicated fractional factorial experiments. The proposed method employs bootstrapping methods to a step-down test for thresholding wavelet coefficients. By introducing the concept of a false discovery error rate in testing wavelet coefficients, we shrink the wavelet coefficients with p -values higher than the error rate. The error rate controls the expected proportion of wrongly accepted coefficients among chosen wavelet coefficients. Bootstrap samples are used to approximate the p -value for computational efficiency. We also present some guidelines for selecting the values of hyper-parameters which affect the performance in the step-down thresholding procedure. Based on some common testing signals and an air-conditioner sounds example, the comparison of our proposed procedure with other thresholding methods in the literature is performed. The analytical results show that the proposed procedure has a potential in data-denoising and data-reduction in a variety of signal reconstruction applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗