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At least 955 records · Page 53

Effect of the space weather conditions on the Earth magnetosphere soft X-ray emissivity

The aim of the study is to model and characterize the soft X-ray emissivity on the Earth magnetosphere for different space weather conditions (SWC), providing information to interpret the soft X-ray measurements of the Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer space mission. The MHD code pluto in spherical coordinates is used to perform parametric studies with respect to the solar wind (SW) dynamic pressure (considering density and velocity effects independently) as well as the IMF intensity and orientation, predicting the soft X-ray emissivity for different SWC. The integrated soft X-ray emissivity inside the magnetosheath is calculated as a proxy of the soft X-ray emission dependencies with the SWC independently of the satellite orbit and camera line of sight. The analysis indicates fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation and magnitude may significantly affect the measured soft X-ray emission although changes in the SW dynamic pressure should be the main source of variability. The southward IMF orientation leads to the configuration with the largest soft X-ray emissivity and northward to the lowest. Strongly distorted magnetospheres explored in configurations showing SW and IMF parameters comparable to the impact of interplanetary coronal mass ejections may show a decrease of the soft X-ray emissivity as the IMF magnitude increases, explained by the strong magnetosphere compression and constriction of the magnetosheath region where the soft X-ray emissivity maximum is located. The simulations also indicate large excursions of the soft X-ray emissivity maximum inside the magnetosheath as the IMF magnitude and SW dynamic pressure fluctuate particularly for radial and ecliptic IMF orientations.

Earth↗

Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Potential Shortcomings of a Binned-Based Emissions Model

In addition to providing safety and mobility benefits, Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to reduce fuel consumption and emissions. As new CAV applications are developed, it is valuable to estimate these potential environmental benefits, typically using vehicle activity data and emissions models. To date, most researchers in the U.S. have used the MOVES vehicle emissions model, developed and maintained by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). However, because MOVES uses a binning approach, it is likely underestimating the true energy and emissions savings that occur when CAV applications smooth traffic flow. To illustrate this problem, we measure and model the fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions for a real-world CAV application: Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) at signalized intersections. Real-world measurements are compared to a MOVES-based estimate, as well as to an estimate provided by the physical-based Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model (CMEM). Results show that MOVES consistently underestimates the energy and emissions benefits of the CAV application, primarily since the bin sizes in MOVES are too large to catch the nuances of traffic smoothing. On the other hand, CMEM provided a more accurate energy and emissions estimate, primarily since it uses analytical functions to model emissions and does not suffer from the same binning problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stimulation of isoprene emissions and electron transport rates are a key mechanism of thermal tolerance in the tropical species Vismia guianensis

Tropical forests absorb large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis, but high surface temperatures suppress this absorption while promoting isoprene emissions. While mechanistic isoprene emission models predict a tight coupling to photosynthetic electron transport (ETR) as a function of temperature, direct field observations of these phenomenon are lacking in the tropics and are necessary to assess the impact of a warming climate on global isoprene emissions. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the early successional species Vismia guianensis in the central Amazon, ETR rates increased with temperature in concert with isoprene emissions, even as stomatal conductance ($g _s$) and net photosynthetic carbon fixation ($P_n$) declined. We observed the highest temperatures of continually increasing isoprene emissions yet reported (50°C). While $P_n$ showed an optimum value of 32.6 ± 0.4°C, isoprene emissions, ETR, and the oxidation state of PSII reaction centers (q L ) increased with leaf temperature with strong linear correlations for ETR (ρ = 0.98) and q L (ρ= 0.99) with leaf isoprene emissions. In contrast, other photoprotective mechanisms, such as non-photochemical quenching (NPQ), were not activated at elevated temperatures. Inhibition of isoprenoid biosynthesis repressed $P_n$ at high temperatures through a mechanism that was independent of stomatal closure. While extreme warming will decrease $g_s$ and $P_n$ in tropical species, our observations support a thermal tolerance mechanism where the maintenance of high photosynthetic capacity under extreme warming is assisted by the simultaneous stimulation of ETR and metabolic pathways that consume the direct products of ETR including photorespiration and the biosynthesis of thermoprotective isoprenoids. Our results confirm that models which link isoprene emissions to the rate of ETR hold true in tropical species and provide necessary "ground-truthing" for simulations of the large predicted increases in tropical isoprene emissions with climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Much stronger tundra methane emissions during autumn-freeze than spring-thaw

Warming in the Arctic has been more apparent in the non-growing season than in the typical growing season. In this context, methane (CH 4 ) emissions in the non-growing season, particularly in the shoulder seasons, account for a substantial proportion of the annual budget. However, CH 4 emissions in spring and autumn shoulders are often underestimated by land models and measurements due to limited data availability and unknown mechanisms. This study investigates CH 4 emissions during spring thaw and autumn freeze using eddy covariance CH 4 measurements from three Arctic sites with multi-year observations. We find that the shoulder seasons contribute to about a quarter (25.6±2.3%, mean ± standard deviation) of annual total CH 4 emissions. Our study highlights the three to four times higher contribution of autumn freeze CH 4 emission to total annual emission than that of spring thaw. Autumn freeze exhibits significantly higher CH 4 flux (0.88±0.03 mg m -2 h -1 ) than spring thaw (0.48±0.04 mg m -2 h -1 ). The mean duration of autumn freeze (58.94±26.39 days) is significantly longer than that of spring thaw (20.94±7.79 days), which predominates the much higher cumulative CH 4 emission during autumn freeze (1212.31±280.39 mg m -2 yr -1 ) than that during spring thaw (307.39±46.11 mg m -2 yr -1 ). Near-surface soil temperatures cannot completely reflect the freeze-thaw processes in deeper soil layers and appears to have a hysteresis effect on CH 4 emissions from early spring thaw to late autumn freeze. Therefore, it is necessary to consider commonalities and differences in CH 4 emissions during spring thaw versus autumn freeze to accurately estimate CH 4 source from tundra ecosystems for evaluating carbon-climate feedback in Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Bioenergy Systems

Researchers have recently argued that there is a 'critical climate accounting error' and that we should say 'goodbye to carbon neutral' for bioenergy. Many other analysts have published opionions on the same topic, and the US Environmental Protection Agency posted a specific call for information. The currently burning questions for carbon accounting is how to deal with bioenergy. The questions arises because, unlike for fossil fuels, burning of biomass fuels represents part of a cycle in which combustion releases back to the atmosphere carbon that was earlier removed from the atmosphere by growing plants. In a sustainable system, plants will again remove the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) from the atmosphere. Conceptually, it is clear that there are no net emissions of the greenhouse gas CO{sub 2} if biomass is harvested and combusted at the same rate that biomass grows and removes CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere. The problem lies in the fact that growth and combustion do not occur at the same time or in the same place, and our accounting system boundaries - spatial and temporal - frequently do not provide full and balanced accounting. When the first comprehensive guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks were put together by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, they noted that it has been argued that CO{sub 2} emissions resulting from bioenergy consumption should not be included in a country's official emission inventory because there are no net emissions if the biomass is produced sustainably, and if the biomass is not produced sustainably, the loss of carbon will be captured as part of the accounting for emissions from land-use change. In the same philosophical vein, the Kyoto Protocol provides that emissions or sinks of CO{sub 2} from land-use change and forestry activities be measured as the 'verifiable changes in carbon stocks'. From these has grown the convention that emissions from biomass fuels are generally not counted as part of emissions inventories, and biomass energy is sometimes referred to as being 'carbon neutral.' But what happens when a forest is harvested for fuel but takes 60 years to regrow or when biomass is harvested in a country that is not party to an international accord but is burned in a country that is party to an international accord? Biomass energy is only truly 'carbon neutral' if we get the system boundaries right. They need to make sure that the accounting methodology is compatible with our needs and realities in management and policy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Well‐to‐wheels analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for passenger vehicles in Middle East and North Africa

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are widely considered a pathway to achieve low carbon mobility. BEVs emit zero emissions from the tailpipe, but their life cycle carbon reduction compared to gasoline vehicles varies based on primary energy sources, electricity generation, and use efficiency. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an area rich in fossil fuels, meriting a detailed comparison between the emissions from BEV and other powertrains. We developed a MENA‐specific life cycle model that estimates well‐to‐wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger transport with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles, and BEVs. MENA's average WTW GHG emissions for all supply chain steps including combustion emissions from vehicle operation are 767 g/kWh and 84 g CO 2 eq/MJ for electricity and gasoline, respectively, but are highly variable due to heterogeneity in upstream supply chains. The use of hybrid gasoline ICEVs provides the largest emission reduction opportunity for existing vehicle fleets in 9 of the 16 MENA countries. For these nine countries, replacing gasoline ICEVs with HEVs could, on average, reduce country‐level life cycle GHG emissions by 47%. There is a similar emission reduction opportunity for 14 of the 16 MENA countries when normalizing vehicle efficiencies irrespective of the powertrain shares and other trends in existing vehicle fleets. Future scenario analysis shows that BEVs would have the lowest WTW GHG emissions among all powertrains in most MENA countries only if significantly reduced electricity transmission losses and cleaner grid mix are realized, although a high cost of infrastructure developments is expected.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Emissions and Flame Structure Assessment of Aeroengine Micromixing Injectors for Lean Direct Injection of Hydrogen and Hydrogen/Natural Gas Blends

Abstract The present study focuses on whether adapting low emissions liquid fuel injection concepts can be applied to gaseous mixtures. The goal is to develop an injector with specific geometric characteristics that will achieve the lowest emissions. This is conducted by evaluating emissions and flame diagnostics on a set of test hardware that has been developed for combustion of pure hydrogen and hydrogen/methane mixtures. The current test hardware adapts lean direct injection concepts from aeroengine injectors to a ground-based engine based on target flows associated with a Solar Turbines Industrial Engine gas turbine. A statistical test plan was developed to assess these geometric characteristics using a three level Box Behnken design. The test plan investigates the effect of injector flow splits, air swirl, fuel swirl, pressure drop, preheat temperature, fuel composition, and the adiabatic flame temperature on the flame structure and emissions performance. A total of 16 injectors were considered for a total of 688 test points for emission and imaging data. Emissions data were reported on a mass basis in ng/J and chemical reactor network analysis were conducted to further interpret emissions behavior. Images were also captured to analyze the flame structure features of interest including reaction volume, flame length, flame spread, and flame width. With these results, a predictive model for emissions was made to conclude the most optimal injector configuration is to have the highest level of air split (more volume of air through the injector plate versus the injector) and air swirl angle for both methane and hydrogen gas mixtures. The predictive emissions level for all of these cases were below 10 ng/J.

08 HYDROGEN↗

sparse-msrf:A package for sparse modeling and estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emission fields

The software is used to fit models of emission fields (e.g., fossil-fuel CO2 emissions) to sparse measurements of gaseous concentrations. Its primary aim is to provide an implementation and a demonstration for the algorithms and models developed in J. Ray, V. Yadav, A. M. Michalak, B. van Bloemen Waanders and S. A. McKenna, "A multiresolution spatial parameterization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions", accepted, Geoscientific Model Development, 2014. The software can be used to estimate emissions of non-reactive gases such as fossil-fuel CO2, methane etc. The software uses a proxy of the emission field being estimated (e.g., for fossil-fuel CO2, a population density map is a good proxy) to construct a wavelet model for the emission field. It then uses a shrinkage regression algorithm called Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP) to fit the wavelet model to concentration measurements, using an atmospheric transport model to relate emission and concentration fields. Algorithmic novelties described in the paper above (1) ensure that the estimated emission fields are non-negative, (2) allow the use of guesses for emission fields to accelerate the estimation processes and (3) ensure that under/overestimates in the guesses do not skew the estimation.

None, JinaLee↗

CO 2 and Carbon Emissions from Cities: Linkages to Air Quality, Socioeconomic Activity, and Stakeholders in the Salt Lake City Urban Area

Urban areas are responsible for a substantial proportion of anthropogenic carbon emissions around the world. As global populations increasingly reside in cities, the role of urban emissions in determining the future trajectory of carbon emissions is magnified. Consequently, a number of research efforts have been started in the United States and beyond, focusing on observing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and relating its variations to carbon emissions in cities. Because carbon emissions are intimately tied to socioeconomic activity through the combustion of fossil fuels, and many cities are actively adopting emission reduction plans, such urban carbon research efforts give rise to opportunities for stakeholder engagement and guidance on other environmental issues, such as air quality. This paper describes a research effort centered in the Salt Lake City, Utah, metropolitan region, which is the locus for one of the longest-running urban CO 2 networks in the world. The Salt Lake City area provides a rich environment for studying anthropogenic emissions and for understanding the relationship between emissions and socioeconomic activity when the CO 2 observations are enhanced with a) air quality observations, b) novel mobile observations from platforms on light-rail public transit trains and a news helicopter, c) dense meteorological observations, and d) modeling efforts that include atmospheric simulations and high-resolution emission inventories. Carbon dioxide and other atmospheric observations are presented herein, along with associated modeling work. Examples in which the work benefited from and contributed to the interests of multiple stakeholders (e.g., policymakers, air quality managers, municipal government, urban planners, industry, and the general public) are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

Fuel usage is an important driver of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In Asia, it is possible that aerosol emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly as a result of the widespread adoption of cleaner technologies or a shift toward noncoal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of two aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) control, which projects a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and a scenario with enhanced anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia. A coupled atmosphere–ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is used. Three sets of initial conditions are used to produce a three-member ensemble for each scenario. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to exert a large cooling effect across the Northern Hemisphere, partially offsetting greenhouse gas–induced warming. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world. Over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced, an effect associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, driven by the aerosol-induced cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed, likely via a weakening of the West African westerly jet. These results indicate that fuel usage in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Representation of Surface Spectral Emissivity in a Global Climate Model and Its Impact on Simulated Climate

Surface longwave emissivity can be less than unity and vary significantly with frequency. However, most climate models still assume a blackbody surface in the longwave (LW) radiation scheme of their atmosphere models. This study incorporates realistic surface spectral emissivity into the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), version 1.1.1, and evaluates its impact on simulated climate. By ensuring consistency of the broadband surface longwave flux across different components of the CESM, the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) energy balance in the modified model can be attained without retuning the model. Inclusion of surface spectral emissivity, however, leads to a decrease of net upward longwave flux at the surface and a comparable increase of latent heat flux. Global-mean surface temperature difference between the modified and standard CESM simulation is 0.20 K for the fully coupled run and 0.45 K for the slab-ocean run. Noticeable surface temperature differences between the modified and standard CESM simulations are seen over the Sahara Desert and polar regions. Accordingly, the climatological mean sea ice fraction in the modified CESM simulation can be less than that in the standard CESM simulation by as much as 0.1 in some regions. When spectral emissivities of sea ice and open ocean surfaces are considered, the broadband LW sea ice emissivity feedback is estimated to be −0.003 W m −2 K −1 , assuming flat ice emissivity as sea ice emissivity, and 0.002 W m −2 K −1 , assuming coarse snow emissivity as sea ice emissivity, which are two orders of magnitude smaller than the surface albedo feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2008: United States

Flow charts depicting carbon dioxide emissions in the United States have been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of state-level energy use patterns. Approximately 5,800 million metric tons of carbon dioxide were emitted throughout the United States for use in power production, residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation applications in 2008. Carbon dioxide is emitted from the use of three major energy resources: natural gas, coal, and petroleum. The flow patterns are represented in a compact 'visual atlas' of 52 state-level (all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and one national) carbon dioxide flow charts representing a comprehensive systems view of national CO{sub 2} emissions. Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) has published flow charts (also referred to as 'Sankey Diagrams') of important national commodities since the early 1970s. The most widely recognized of these charts is the U.S. energy flow chart (http://flowcharts.llnl.gov). LLNL has also published charts depicting carbon (or carbon dioxide potential) flow and water flow at the national level as well as energy, carbon, and water flows at the international, state, municipal, and organizational (i.e. United States Air Force) level. Flow charts are valuable as single-page references that contain quantitative data about resource, commodity, and byproduct flows in a graphical form that also convey structural information about the system that manages those flows. Data on carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are reported on a national level. Because carbon dioxide emissions are not reported for individual states, the carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using published energy use information. Data on energy use is compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) in the State Energy Data System (SEDS). SEDS is updated annually and reports data from 2 years prior to the year of the update. SEDS contains data on primary resource consumption, electricity generation, and energy consumption within each economic sector. Flow charts of state-level energy usage and explanations of the calculations and assumptions utilized can be found at: http://flowcharts.llnl.gov. This information is translated into carbon dioxide emissions using ratios of carbon dioxide emissions to energy use calculated from national carbon dioxide emissions and national energy use quantities for each particular sector. These statistics are reported annually in the U.S. EIA's Annual Energy Review. Data for 2008 (US. EIA, 2010) was updated in August of 2010. This is the first presentation of a comprehensive state-level package of flow charts depicting carbon dioxide emissions for the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

China Energy and Emissions Paths to 2030

After over two decades of staggering economic growth and soaring energy demand, China has started taking serious actions to reduce its economic energy and carbon intensity by setting short and medium-term intensity reduction targets, renewable generation targets and various supporting policies and programs. In better understanding how further policies and actions can be taken to shape China's future energy and emissions trajectory, it is important to first identify where the largest opportunities for efficiency gains and emission reduction lie from sectoral and end-use perspectives. Besides contextualizing China's progress towards reaching the highest possible efficiency levels through the adoption of the most advanced technologies from a bottom-up perspective, the actual economic costs and benefits of adopting efficiency measures are also assessed in this study. This study presents two modeling methodologies that evaluate both the technical and economic potential of raising China's efficiency levels to the technical maximum across sectors and the subsequent carbon and energy emission implications through 2030. The technical savings potential by efficiency measure and remaining gap for improvements are identified by comparing a reference scenario in which China continues the current pace of with a Max Tech scenario in which the highest technically feasible efficiencies and advanced technologies are adopted irrespective of costs. In addition, from an economic perspective, a cost analysis of selected measures in the key industries of cement and iron and steel help quantify the actual costs and benefits of achieving the highest efficiency levels through the development of cost of conserved energy curves for the sectors. The results of this study show that total annual energy savings potential of over one billion tonne of coal equivalent exists beyond the expected reference pathway under Max Tech pathway in 2030. CO 2 emissions will also peak earlier under Max Tech, though the 2020s is a likely turning point for both emission trajectories. Both emission pathways must meet all announced and planned policies, targets and non-fossil generation targets, or an even wider efficiency gap will exist. The savings potential under Max Tech varies by sector, but the industrial sector appears to hold the largest energy savings and emission reduction potential. The primary source of savings is from electricity rather than fuel, and electricity savings are magnified by power sector decarbonization through increasing renewable generation and coal generation efficiency improvement. In order to achieve the maximum energy savings and emission reduction potential, efficiency improvements and technology switching must be undertaken across demand sectors as well as in the growing power sector. From an economic perspective, the cost of conserved energy analysis indicates that nearly all measures for the iron and steel and cement industry are cost-effective. All 23 efficiency measures analyzed for the cement industry are cost-effective, with combined CO 2 emission reduction potential of 448 Mt CO 2 . All of the electricity savings measures in the iron and steel industry are cost-effective, but the cost-effective savings potential for fuel savings measures is slightly lower than total technical savings potential. The total potential savings from these measures confirm the magnitude of savings in the scenario models, and illustrate the remaining efficiency gap in the cement and iron and steel industries.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

2022 LANL Radionuclide Air Emissions Report (Rev. 2)

This report describes the emissions of airborne radionuclides from operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for calendar year 2022 and the resulting off-site dose from these emissions. This document fulfills the requirements established by the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants in 40 CFR 61, Subpart H – Emissions of Radionuclides other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities, commonly referred to as the Radionuclide NESHAP or Rad-NESHAP. Compliance with this regulation and preparation of this document is the responsibility of LANL’s Rad NESHAP compliance program, which is part of the Environmental Protection and Compliance (EPC) Division. The information in this report is required under the Clean Air Act and is being submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Headquarters and EPA Region 6. The highest effective dose equivalent (EDE) to an off-site member of the public was calculated using procedures specified by the EPA and described in this report. LANL’s EDE was 0.45 for 2022. The annual limit is 10 millirem per year, established by the EPA in 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. All measured air emissions are modeled to a single location, known as the Maximally Exposed Individual (MEI). During calendar year 2022, LANL continuously monitored radionuclide emissions at 27 “major” release points, or stacks. The Laboratory estimates emissions from an additional 34 “minor” release points using radionuclide usage source terms in lieu of stack monitoring. Also, LANL uses an EPA approved network of air samplers around the Laboratory perimeter to monitor ambient airborne levels of radionuclides. To provide data for dispersion modeling and dose assessment, LANL maintains and operates several meteorological monitoring towers. From these various systems, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted to calculate the MEI dose for the Laboratory. The MEI can be any member of the public at any off-site location where there is a residence, school, business, or office. In 2022, this MEI location was a business at 95 Entrada Drive, located in the eastern end of Los Alamos town site. The primary contributors to the off-site dose at this location are the ambient air data at that location combined with radioactive gas emissions from the LANSCE facility and the collected potential emissions from unmonitored (minor) sources. Overall, the MEI dose in 2022 is similar to that which has been observed in recent years, and it remains well below the EPA’s 10 millirem per year limit. Doses reported to the EPA for the past 10 years are shown in Table E1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Realistic Estimation of CO2 Emission Reductions Due to Building Retrofit

Constant CO2 emission factors of electricity are often used to study the emissions of buildings. However, in the era of increased renewable energy for power generation, emission factors of electricity are dynamically changing. This study is to investigate the impact of dynamic CO2 emission factors, which are more realistic than constant ones, on the emission reductions due to building retrofits. The results reveal that if dynamic CO2 emission factors are used for U.S. medium office buildings, improving the efficiency of lighting or electric equipment will lead to more emission reductions in locations with high wind power penetration (e.g., 12% more reductions in Rochester) and fewer reductions in locations with high solar power penetration (e.g., 8% fewer reductions in San Diego). As for improving envelope insulation, dynamic CO2 emission factors have more impact on the emission reductions in hot climates than in cold climates.

Lou, Yingli↗

The Role of Low-Carbon Fuels and Carbon Capture in Decarbonizing the U.S. Clinker Manufacturing for Cement Production: CO2 Emissions Reduction Potentials

Low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources can play a vital role in the decarbonization of clinker production in cement manufacturing. Fuel switching with renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and biomass can provide a low-carbon energy source for the high-temperature process heat during the pyroprocessing steps of clinker production. However, up to 60% of CO2 emissions from clinker production are attributable to process-related CO2 emissions, which will need the simultaneous implementation of other decarbonization technologies, such as carbon capture. To evaluate the potential of fuel switching and carbon capture technologies in decarbonizing the cement industry, a study of the facility-level CO2 emissions is necessary. This study evaluates the potential for using a single low-carbon fuel as an energy source in clinker production for cement manufacturing compared to conventional clinker production (which uses a range of fuel mixes). In addition, conventional carbon capture (operated with natural gas-based steam for solvent regeneration) and electrified carbon capture configurations were designed and assessed for net-zero emission targets. Carbon emissions reductions with and without biogenic emissions credits were analyzed to ascertain their impact on the overall carbon accounting. Results show that carbon emissions intensity of cement can vary from 571 to 784 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement without carbon capture and from 166.33 to 438.66 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement with carbon capture. We find that when biogenic carbon credits are considered, cement production with a sustainably grown biomass as fuel source coupled with conventional carbon capture can lead to a net-negative emission cement (−271 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement), outperforming an electrified capture design (35 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement). The carbon accounting for the Scope 1, 2, and biogenic emissions conducted in this study is aimed at helping researchers and industry partners in the cement and concrete sector make an informed decision on the choice of fuel and decarbonization strategy to adopt.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Paschen Jump as a Diagnostic of the Diffuse Nebular Continuum Emission in Active Galactic Nuclei*

Photoionization modeling of active galactic nuclei (AGN) predicts that diffuse continuum (DC) emission from the broad-line region makes a substantial contribution to the total continuum emission from ultraviolet through near-infrared wavelengths. Evidence for this DC component is present in the strong Balmer jump feature in AGN spectra, and possibly from reverberation measurements that find longer lags than expected from disk emission alone. However, the Balmer jump region contains numerous blended emission features, making it difficult to isolate the DC emission strength. In contrast, the Paschen jump region near 8200 Å is relatively uncontaminated by other strong emission features. Here, we examine whether the Paschen jump can aid in constraining the DC contribution, using Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph spectra of six nearby Seyfert 1 nuclei. The spectra appear smooth across the Paschen edge, and we find no evidence of a Paschen spectral break or jump in total flux. We fit multicomponent spectral models over the range 6800–9700 Å and find that the spectra can still be compatible with a significant DC contribution if the DC Paschen jump is offset by an opposite spectral break resulting from blended high-order Paschen emission lines. The fits imply DC contributions ranging from ~10% to 50% at 8000 Å, but the fitting results are highly dependent on assumptions made about other model components. These degeneracies can potentially be alleviated by carrying out fits over a broader wavelength range, provided that models can accurately represent the disk continuum shape, Fe ii emission, high-order Balmer line emission, and other components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A 15-year record of CO emissions constrained by MOPITT CO observations

Long-term measurements from satellites and surface stations have demonstrated a decreasing trend of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere over the past decade. Likely explanations for this decrease include changes in anthropogenic, fires, and/or biogenic emissions or changes in the primary chemical sink hydroxyl radical (OH). Using remotely sensed CO measurements from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument, in situ methyl chloroform (MCF) measurements from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) and the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model, we estimate the change in global CO emissions from 2001 to 2015. We show that the loss rate of MCF varied by 0.2 % in the past 15 years, indicating that changes in global OH distributions do not explain the recent decrease in CO. Our two-step inversion approach for estimating CO emissions is intended to mitigate the effect of bias errors in the MOPITT data as well as model errors in transport and chemistry, which are the primary factors contributing to the uncertainties when quantifying CO emissions using these remotely sensed data. Our results confirm that the decreasing trend of tropospheric CO in the Northern Hemisphere is due to decreasing CO emissions from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. In particular, we find decreasing CO emissions from the United States and China in the past 15 years, and unchanged anthropogenic CO emissions from Europe since 2008. We find decreasing trends of biomass burning CO emissions from boreal North America, boreal Asia and South America, but little change over Africa. In contrast to prior results, we find that a positive trend in CO emissions is likely for India and southeast Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗