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High-Fidelity Multidisciplinary Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Multipoint Rotorcraft Optimization

A multidisciplinary, gradient-based sensitivity-analysis methodology is evaluated for optimization of rotorcraft configurations. The tightly coupled discipline models include physics-based fluid dynamics and rotorcraft comprehensive analysis. A discretely-consistent adjoint method accounts for sensitivities of the unsteady flow and unstructured, dynamic, over set grids, while sensitivities of structural responses to aerodynamic loads are computed using a complex-variable method. The methodology is applied to optimize the shape of UH-60A Blackhawk helicopter blades for hover and forward flight conditions. The objective of the multipoint design is to simultaneously increase the rotorcraft figure of merit in a hover flight and reduce the rotor power in a forward flight. Trimmed loose-coupling solutions for the baseline configuration are used to initiate the tight-coupling multidisciplinary analysis. Target thrust and rolling and pitching moments are enforced as optimization constraints. The optimized configuration improves the optimization metrics at both design points. The improved performance and all constraints are maintained over many revolutions beyond the optimization interval, satisfying the required flight conditions. Computational cost of the optimization cycle is assessed in a high-performance computing environment and found affordable for design of rotorcraft in general level-flight conditions.

Wang, Li↗

Integration of the Radiation Belt Environment Model Into the Space Weather Modeling Framework

We have integrated the Fok radiation belt environment (RBE) model into the space weather modeling framework (SWMF). RBE is coupled to the global magnetohydrodynamics component (represented by the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US, code) and the Ionosphere Electrodynamics component of the SWMF, following initial results using the Weimer empirical model for the ionospheric potential. The radiation belt (RB) model solves the convection-diffusion equation of the plasma in the energy range of 10 keV to a few MeV. In stand-alone mode RBE uses Tsyganenko's empirical models for the magnetic field, and Weimer's empirical model for the ionospheric potential. In the SWMF the BATS-R-US model provides the time dependent magnetic field by efficiently tracing the closed magnetic field-lines and passing the geometrical and field strength information to RBE at a regular cadence. The ionosphere electrodynamics component uses a two-dimensional vertical potential solver to provide new potential maps to the RBE model at regular intervals. We discuss the coupling algorithm and show some preliminary results with the coupled code. We run our newly coupled model for periods of steady solar wind conditions and compare our results to the RB model using an empirical magnetic field and potential model. We also simulate the RB for an active time period and find that there are substantial differences in the RB model results when changing either the magnetic field or the electric field, including the creation of an outer belt enhancement via rapid inward transport on the time scale of tens of minutes.

Glocer, A.↗

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weath↗

Large-scale wind-tunnel investigation of a close-coupled canard-delta-wing fighter model through high angles of attack

Data obtained through very high angles of attack from a large-scale, subsonic wind-tunnel test of a close-coupled canard-delta-wing fighter model are analyzed. The canard delays wing leading-edge vortex breakdown, even for angles of attack at which the canard is completely stalled. A vortex-lattice method was applied which gave good predictions of lift and pitching moment up to an angle of attack of about 20 deg, where vortex-breakdown effects on performance become significant. Pitch-control inputs generally retain full effectiveness up to the angle of attack of maximum lift, beyond which, effectiveness drops off rapidly. A high-angle-of-attack prediction method gives good estimates of lift and drag for the completely stalled aircraft. Roll asymmetry observed at zero sideslip is apparently caused by an asymmetry in the model support structure.

Stoll, F.↗

Coupled Thermo-Mechanical Micromechanics Modeling of the Influence of Thermally Grown Oxide Layer in an Environmental Barrier Coating System

Environmental Barrier Coatings (EBCs) have emerged as a promising means of protecting silicon based ceramic matrix composite (CMC) components for high temperature applications (e.g., aircraft engines). EBCs are often used to protect an underlying material (substrate) such as silicon carbide from extreme thermal/chemical environments. In a typical CMC/EBC system, an EBC may or may not be adhered to an underlying substrate with a bond coat (e.g., silicon). Irrespective, systems that utilize EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recession, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object damage. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center is aimed at addressing these failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design process. The Higher-Order Theory for Functionally Graded Materials (HOTFGM), a precursor to the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells micromechanics approach, was developed to investigate the coupled thermo-mechanical behavior of functionally graded composites and will be used herein to assess the development and growth of a low-stiffness thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer in EBC/CMC systems without a silicon bond coat. To accomplish this a sensitivity study is conducted to examine the influence of uniformly and nonuniformly grown oxide layer on the associated driving forces leading to mechanical failure (spallation) of EBC layer when subjected to isothermal loading.

thermally grown oxide↗

Simulation Apps Bring Us Closer to Mars

My work with mathematical modeling and computer simulations began in earnest in 1987 when I signed on with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, better known as NASA. At the time I was developing computer simulations to support the design of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal systems for the International Space Station (ISS) life support system. CO2 is a human metabolic waste, produced at a rate of a kilogram per day per crewmember. CO2 must be removed from the crew cabin, as it will quickly become detrimental to crew health. The systems used to remove CO2 are typically based on sorption processes, which include complex interactions of heat transfer, mass transfer, and gas flow through porous media. At this time, there were no commercial options for solving a set of coupled mathematical models such as partial differential equations (PDEs); you either force-fit the physics into a thermal analysis package or wrote your own code, complete with discretization, meshing, and solution algorithms. Unfortunately, coding CO2 removal processes from scratch did not allow an appropriate focus on the challenging yet crucial task of understanding and capturing the underlying physics via appropriate mathematical models. Configuration control was often simply ignored due to tight schedules, resulting in a code that would be quicker for a second party to rewrite than modify. In the early 2000s, I decided to move CO2 removal simulations to a platform with built-in meshing, solvers, and postprocessing capabilities, and that could solve user-defined multiphysics PDEs. The program chosen to meet these needs was COMSOL Multiphysics®. Along with freeing the engineer to focus on the underlying physics, a degree of configuration control was automatically achieved via a consistent user interface, thus allowing COMSOL users to share computer models. My team has developed simulations that are already providing a valuable debugging capability for the ISS CO2 removal system, and will provide guidance in upgrades to that system.

Knox, Jim↗

Air Pollution Over the Ganges Basin and Northwest Bay of Bengal in the Early Postmonsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office. This reanalysis is based on a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) model radiatively coupled with Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. In October over the period 2002-2009, MERRAero showed that AOT was lower over the east of the Ganges basin than over the northwest of the Ganges basin: this was despite the fact that the east of the Ganges basin should have produced higher anthropogenic aerosol emissions because of higher population density, increased industrial output, and transportation. This is evidence that higher aerosol emissions do not always correspond to higher AOT over the areas where the effects of meteorological factors on AOT dominate those of aerosol emissions. MODIS AOT assimilation was essential for correcting modeled AOT mainly over the northwest of the Ganges basin, where AOT increments were maximal. Over the east of the Ganges basin and northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), AOT increments were low and MODIS AOT assimilation did not contribute significantly to modeled AOT. Our analysis showed that increasing AOT trends over northwest BoB (exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin) were reproduced by GEOS-5, not because of MODIS AOT assimilation butmainly because of the model capability of reproducing meteorological factors contributing to AOT trends. Moreover, vertically integrated aerosol mass flux was sensitive to wind convergence causing aerosol accumulation over northwest BoB.

AOT↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Inter-Disciplinary Validation of Pre Earthquake Signals. Case Study for Major Earthquakes in Asia (2004-2010) and for 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

We carried out multi-sensors observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which we found, associated with the earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation, temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere, radon/ion activities, and air temperature/humidity in the atmosphere. We used satellite and ground observations and interpreted them with the Lithosphere-Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of possible paradigms we study and support. We made two independent continues hind-cast investigations in Taiwan and Japan for total of 102 earthquakes (M>6) occurring from 2004-2011. We analyzed: (1) ionospheric electromagnetic radiation, plasma and energetic electron measurements from DEMETER (2) emitted long-wavelength radiation (OLR) from NOAA/AVHRR and NASA/EOS; (3) radon/ion variations (in situ data); and 4) GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements collected from space and ground based observations. This joint analysis of ground and satellite data has shown that one to six (or more) days prior to the largest earthquakes there were anomalies in all of the analyzed physical observations. For the latest March 11 , 2011 Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows again the same relationship between several independent observations characterizing the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling. On March 7th we found a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation observed from satellite data and subsequently an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicated an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Beginning from this day we confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter in the lower ionosphere. These findings revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which indicated new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, D.↗

An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

Cavitation Effects on the Structural Dynamics of Turbomachinery Components

The structural integrity of inducer and impeller blades in rocket engine turbomachinery must be evaluated in the face of complex excitation mechanisms including fluctuating pressures due to cavitation. Cavitation occurs when the local fluid pressure drops below the vapor pressure, causing the formation of vapor-filled bubbles. Cavitation can exist to various extents within the typical operating range of rocket engine turbopumps. Despite recent progress towards reducing uncertainties in structural dynamic models of turbomachinery components, the extent to which pump cavitation affects the structural dynamic properties (i.e., natural frequencies, damping, and mode shapes) of inducer and impeller blades remains largely unknown. To study the structural dynamic effects of cavitating flows, experiments are conducted in a high-speed water tunnel. The test articles mimic a single inducer blade that is unwrapped from the hub, thus resembling a low aspect ratio cantilevered plate. To induce cavitation, the plates are oriented at a non-zero angle of attack and have rough strips near their leading edges. To control the extent of cavitation, the static pressure of the water tunnel is controlled between roughly 0.5 and 1.5 atm. A high-speed camera is used to quantify the coverage of the cavitations heet. The sheet coverage is then correlated to changes in fluid-added mass and hydroelstic damping. In addition, a corresponding two-way coupled CFD/FE model is under development for test/analysis correlation.

Ben Davis↗

Comprehensive Digital Twin of a Macro-fluidic Electrochemical Reactor to Optimize the Electrochemical-based Recovery of O2 from Metabolic CO2

Future long-duration missions will require a sustainable and efficient system capable of yielding a minimum of 75% O 2 recovery from metabolic CO 2 to achieve self-sufficiency for long space missions beyond Earth's low orbit. A Macro-fluidic Electrochemical Reactor (MFECR) development effort to electrochemically recover O 2 from CO 2 is underway at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to increase current O 2 recovery efficiency and reduce air revitalization (AR) system complexity at the International Space Station (ISS) habitat and future long missions. The authors have developed and deployed a digital twin of an actual single cell of the MFECR via a comprehensive 3D multiphysics model that thoroughly replicates the exact configuration and fluid/material domains of the MFECR. This model's electrochemical physics consists of multicomponent-multiphase electrochemical-driven reactions leading to CO 2 conversion to C 2 H 4 and CO along with the formation of H 2 on the cathode in parallel with the generation of O 2 and H 2 O on the anode. This electrochemical model is coupled with all the physics phenomena involved in the process, including but not limited to fluid and non-ideal mass transfer of reactant and product species in free and porous media, convective/conduction/radiative heat transfer, and conduction of DC electrical current with Joule heating generation. The digital twin has proved to be an essential tool for performing different qualitative studies, including the effect of reducing the height (increasing the respect ratio) of the serpentine walls, leading to a further redesign of the EDU (the newly redesigned MFECR EDU has been fabricated and is expected to be used in future tests), the evaluation of setting different MFECRs connected in series, and the assessment of feeding air directly to the MFECR skipping the preceding metabolic CO 2 separation from air. The MFECR's test stand is fully automated and equipped with several inline measurements (flow, pressure, temperature, pH, component concentration) systems on all six MFECR's IO streams, allowing reliable experimental validation of the model, parametric determination of all electrochemical reactions, and process optimization.

Jesus A Dominguez↗

Models of Small-Scale Patchiness

Patchiness is perhaps the most salient characteristic of plankton populations in the ocean. The scale of this heterogeneity spans many orders of magnitude in its spatial extent, ranging from planetary down to microscale. It has been argued that patchiness plays a fundamental role in the functioning of marine ecosystems, insofar as the mean conditions may not reflect the environment to which organisms are adapted. Understanding the nature of this patchiness is thus one of the major challenges of oceanographic ecology. The patchiness problem is fundamentally one of physical-biological-chemical interactions. This interconnection arises from three basic sources: (1) ocean currents continually redistribute dissolved and suspended constituents by advection; (2) space-time fluctuations in the flows themselves impact biological and chemical processes, and (3) organisms are capable of directed motion through the water. This tripartite linkage poses a difficult challenge to understanding oceanic ecosystems: differentiation between the three sources of variability requires accurate assessment of property distributions in space and time, in addition to detailed knowledge of organismal repertoires and the processes by which ambient conditions control the rates of biological and chemical reactions. Various methods of observing the ocean tend to lie parallel to the axes of the space/time domain in which these physical-biological-chemical interactions take place. Given that a purely observational approach to the patchiness problem is not tractable with finite resources, the coupling of models with observations offers an alternative which provides a context for synthesis of sparse data with articulations of fundamental principles assumed to govern functionality of the system. In a sense, models can be used to fill the gaps in the space/time domain, yielding a framework for exploring the controls on spatially and temporally intermittent processes. The following discussion highlights only a few of the multitude of models which have yielded insight into the dynamics of plankton patchiness. In addition, this particular collection of examples is intended to furnish some exposure to the diversity of modeling approaches which can be brought to bear on the problem. These approaches range from abstract theoretical models intended to elucidate specific processes, to complex numerical formulations which can be used to actually simulate observed distributions in detail.

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

Stability of the Martian atmosphere: Is heterogeneous catalysis essential?

A comprehensive homogeneous gas phase photochemical model is developed to study the problem of stability of the Martian atmosphere. The one-dimensional model extends from the ground up to 220 km, passing through the homopause at 125 km. The model thus couples the lower (neutral) atmosphere to the ionosphere above which provides significant downward flux of carbon monoxide and oxygen atoms. It is concluded on the basic of currently accepted values for globally and seasonally averaged water vapor abundance, dust opacity and the middle atmospheric eddy mixing coefficient, as well as the relevant laboratory data (particularly the temperature dependence of CO2 absorption cross section and the rate constant for CO+OH reaction), that the rate of re-formation of carbon dioxide exceeds its photolytic destruction rate by about 40%. Furthermore, it is found that this result is virtually independent of the choice of eddy mixing coefficient, unless its value in the middle atmosphere exceeds 10(exp 8) sq cm/sec or is far smaller than 10(exp 5)sq cm/sec, or the dust opacity, unless it exceeds unity, or the water vapor mixing ratio at the surface, unless it is far smaller (less than or = 1 ppm) or far greater (greater than or = 500 ppm) than the average value (approximately 150 ppm). Since none of these extremes represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions on Mars, we propose that the present model requires existence of a mechanism to throttle down the recycling rate of carbon dioxide on Mars. Therefore, it is suggested that a heterogeneous process which provides a sink to the species that participate in the recycling of CO2, i.e., H2O, H2O2, OH, CO or O, in particular, may be necessary to bring about the balance between the CO2 recycling rate and its photolytic destruction rate. Aerosols of dust or ice (pure or doped water or carbon dioxide ice present in the atmosphere of Mars) can provide the appropriate adsorption sites for the above heterogeneous process. Despite our conclusion that some heterogeneous process may be needed, it is important to recognize that one-dimensional models can only provide first-order results which, most likely, represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions. However, it is only after actual temporal, latitudinal and longitudinal variations of relevant atmospheric parameters are included in the model that one can determine fuly whether the problem of atmospheric stabiltiy still continues to persist and whether some heterogeneous process is required to correct it.

Atreya, Sushil K.↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

Learning to Control Advanced Life Support Systems

Advanced life support systems have many interacting processes and limited resources. Controlling and optimizing advanced life support systems presents unique challenges. In particular, advanced life support systems are nonlinear coupled dynamical systems and it is difficult for humans to take all interactions into account to design an effective control strategy. In this project. we developed several reinforcement learning controllers that actively explore the space of possible control strategies, guided by rewards from a user specified long term objective function. We evaluated these controllers using a discrete event simulation of an advanced life support system. This simulation, called BioSim, designed by Nasa scientists David Kortenkamp and Scott Bell has multiple, interacting life support modules including crew, food production, air revitalization, water recovery, solid waste incineration and power. They are implemented in a consumer/producer relationship in which certain modules produce resources that are consumed by other modules. Stores hold resources between modules. Control of this simulation is via adjusting flows of resources between modules and into/out of stores. We developed adaptive algorithms that control the flow of resources in BioSim. Our learning algorithms discovered several ingenious strategies for maximizing mission length by controlling the air and water recycling systems as well as crop planting schedules. By exploiting non-linearities in the overall system dynamics, the learned controllers easily out- performed controllers written by human experts. In sum, we accomplished three goals. We (1) developed foundations for learning models of coupled dynamical systems by active exploration of the state space, (2) developed and tested algorithms that learn to efficiently control air and water recycling processes as well as crop scheduling in Biosim, and (3) developed an understanding of the role machine learning in designing control systems for advanced life support.

Subramanian, Devika↗

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.↗