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DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated modeling of alpha particle losses in JET DT plasmas

Alpha particle confinement is crucial for sustaining burning plasmas and designing future reactor concepts. Along with classical/prompt losses, various magnetohydrodynamic instabilities can lead to wave-particle interactions which can transport alpha particles outward from the plasma. This can result in a reduction in plasma heating/performance, and, at worst, damage in-vessel components. Joint European Torus’s recent deuterium–tritium campaigns in 2021–2023 have produced numerous alpha particle loss measurements with its scintillator probe and Faraday cup array fast ion loss detectors as discussed in Bonofiglo et al (2024 Nucl. Fusion 64 096038). This paper will report on integrated energetic particle transport modeling in support of those measurements. The modeling is accomplished with the TRANSP and ORBIT-kick codes with the use of recently developed reduced models which calculate mode structure, amplitude, and the evolving dynamics. When possible, constraints and comparisons to experiment are conducted. Case studies are performed on a variety of magnetohydrodynamic activity, including: fishbones, tearing modes (TMs), and sawtooth crashes. Additionally, a special case of an alpha-driven toroidal Alfvén eigenmode is briefly discussed, where modeling showed marginally weak alpha losses and was unable to support experimental observations. Coupled effects between a TM and toroidal field ripple are presented and were unable to replicate the observations in lost particle pitch but did duplicate the localized flattening of the measured neutron profile. Additional modeling results compare the magnitude of losses and energy/velocity-space sensitivities against experimental observations/measurements for each scenario. This work corroborates numeric alpha transport modeling while also identifying model deficiencies. While this report details alpha transport, it also presents open issues for discussion in assessing the validity of our numerical models towards burning plasmas.

Bonofiglo, Phillip J. [Princeton Plasma Physics La↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-BRC-02: A Novel Multi-Criteria Optimization Approach to Generate Deliverable Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) Treatment Plans

Purpose: To present a novel multi-criteria optimization (MCO) solution approach that generates treatment plans with deliverable apertures using column generation. Methods: We demonstrate our method with 10 locally advanced head-and-neck cancer cases retrospectively. In our MCO formulation, we defined an objective function for each structure in the treatment volume. This resulted in 9 objective functions, including 3 distinct objectives for primary target volume, high-risk and low-risk target volumes, 5 objectives for each of the organs-at-risk (OARs) (two parotid glands, spinal cord, brain stem and oral cavity), and one for the non-target non-OAR normal tissue. Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints were utilized to ensure at least certain fraction of the target volumes receiving the prescription doses. To directly generate deliverable plans, column generation algorithm was embedded within our MCO approach for aperture shape generation. Final dose distributions for all plans were generated using a Monte Carlo kernel-superposition dose calculation. We compared the MCO plans with the clinical plans, which were created by clinicians. Results: At least 95% target coverage was achieved by both MCO plans and clinical plans. However, the average conformity indices of clinical plans and the MCO plans were 1.95 and 1.35, respectively (31% reduction, p<0.01). Compared to the conventional clinical plan, the proposed MCO method achieved average reductions in left parotid mean dose of 5% (p=0.06), right parotid mean dose of 18% (p<0.01), oral cavity mean dose of 21% (p=0.03), spinal cord maximum dose of 20% (p<0.01), brain stem maximum dose of 61% (p<0.01), and normal tissue maximum dose of 5% (p<0.01), respectively. Conclusion: We demonstrated that the proposed MCO method was able to obtain deliverable IMRT treatment plans while achieving significant improvements in dosimetric plan quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Space Shuttle stability and control flight test techniques

A unique approach for obtaining vehicle aerodynamic characteristics during entry has been developed for the Space Shuttle. This is due to the high cost of Shuttle testing, the need to open constraints for operational flights, and the fact that all flight regimes are flown starting with the first flight. Because of uncertainties associated with predicted aerodynamic coefficients, nine flight conditions have been identified at which control problems could occur. A detailed test plan has been developed for testing at these conditions and is presented. Due to limited testing, precise computer initiated maneuvers are implemented. These maneuvers are designed to optimize the vehicle motion for determining aerodynamic coefficients. Special sensors and atmospheric measurements are required to provide stability and control flight data during an entire entry. The techniques employed in data reduction are proven programs developed and used at NASA/DFRC.

Cooke, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Smart Sensor Demonstration Payload

Sensors are a critical element to any monitoring, control, and evaluation processes such as those needed to support ground based testing for rocket engine test. Sensor applications involve tens to thousands of sensors; their reliable performance is critical to achieving overall system goals. Many figures of merit are used to describe and evaluate sensor characteristics; for example, sensitivity and linearity. In addition, sensor selection must satisfy many trade-offs among system engineering (SE) requirements to best integrate sensors into complex systems [1]. These SE trades include the familiar constraints of power, signal conditioning, cabling, reliability, and mass, and now include considerations such as spectrum allocation and interference for wireless sensors. Our group at NASA s John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) works in the broad area of integrated systems health management (ISHM). Core ISHM technologies include smart and intelligent sensors, anomaly detection, root cause analysis, prognosis, and interfaces to operators and other system elements [2]. Sensor technologies are the base fabric that feed data and health information to higher layers. Cost-effective operation of the complement of test stands benefits from technologies and methodologies that contribute to reductions in labor costs, improvements in efficiency, reductions in turn-around times, improved reliability, and other measures. ISHM is an active area of development at SSC because it offers the potential to achieve many of those operational goals [3-5].

Schmalzel, John↗

DOE OSTI2016

A BWR Fuel Assembly Concept with Partial Segregation of Fertile Material

Small modular reactors (SMRs) have been a hot topic in recent years due to their own set of advantages over conventional large light water reactors (LWRs). One of the driving forces for SMR development is the significant reduction in the up-front cost and enhanced inherent safety features. The reduced safety concerns are attributed to two main aspects, decay heat and source term. By taking the advantages of the two-phase flow driving head, which allows a much smaller and simpler reactor pressure vessel compared to the integral PWRs, a 50 MWe BWR-based SMR called the Novel Modular Reactor (NMR-50) is currently being developed at Purdue University. For this NMR-50, an optimized long-life core design was developed, which achieves a 10.2-year cycle length under current industrial practices and constraints. Due to the reduced operating power density, however, it was evident that there is a significant room to increase the fuel linear power. Therefore, core designs of partial segregation of fertile material within a fuel assembly (FA) were investigated to extend the fuel cycle length further. A heterogeneous fertile material loading (HFL) within a fuel assembly was developed based on the existing industry UO{sub 2} once-through fuel cycle option for the purpose of near-term deployment and maximum retrofitability. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis of superconducting freestanding infinite-layer nickelate heterostructures on the millimetre scale

The development of superconductivity in infinite-layer nickelates through hole-doping relies on the controlled synthesis of Ni in a high oxidation state, followed by topotactic reduction to a very low oxidation state. So far, superconductivity has been realized only in epitaxial thin films. Here, in this work, we integrate these techniques with heterostructures that include an epitaxial soluble buffer layer, enabling the release of freestanding (Nd,Sr)NiO 2 heterostructures. The released heterostructures exhibit comparable structural and electronic properties to those of optimized thin films, with lateral dimensions ranging from millimetres to ~100 μm, depending on the degree of strain released with respect to the initial substrate. The changes in the superconducting transition temperature upon release of the heterostructure mirror those reported for variations in substrate and pressure, suggesting a common underlying response to strain in the infinite-layer nickelate superconductivity. These freestanding structures will facilitate a range of experimental studies without the constraints of substrates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-IeP2-03: Comparison of Dose Calculation On MAR (metal Artifact Reduction) and Non-MAR Datasets for Pelvic Patients with Hip Prosthesis and Head and Neck Patients with Dental Filling

Purpose: Metal artifact reduction (MAR) software in computed tomography (CT) was previously evaluated with phantoms demonstrating the algorithm is capable of reducing metal artifacts without affecting the overall image quality. The goal of this study is to determine the dosimetric impact when calculating with CT datasets reconstructed with and without MAR software. Methods: Twelve head and neck cancer patients with dental fillings and four pelvic cancer patients with hip prosthesis were scanned with a GE Optima RT 580 CT scanner. Images were reconstructed with and without the MAR software. 6MV IMRT and VMAT plans were calculated with AAA on the MAR dataset until all constraints met our clinic’s guidelines. Contours from the MAR dataset were copied to the non-MAR dataset. Next, dose calculation on the non-MAR dataset was performed using the same field arrangements and fluence as the MAR plan. Conformality index, D99% and V100% to PTV were compared between MAR and non-MAR plans. Results: Differences between MAR and non-MAR plans were evaluated. For head and neck plans, the largest variations in conformality index, D99% and V100% were −3.8%, −0.9% and −2.1% respectively whereas for pelvic plans, the biggest discrepancies were −32.7%, −0.4% and -33.5% respectively. The dosimetric impact from hip prosthesis is greater because it produces more artifacts compared to dental fillings. Coverage to PTV can increase or decrease depending on the artifacts since dark streaks reduce the HU whereas bright streaks increase the HU. In the majority of the cases, PTV dose in the non-MAR plans is higher than MAR plans. Conclusion: With the presence of metals, MAR algorithm can allow more accurate delineation of targets and OARs. Dose difference between MAR and non-MAR plans depends on the proximity of the organ to the high density material, the streaking artifacts and the beam arrangements of the plan.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Preliminary large-eddy simulations of flow around a NACA 4412 airfoil using unstructured grids

Large-eddy simulation (LES) has matured to the point where application to complex flows is desirable. The extension to higher Reynolds numbers leads to an impractical number of grid points with existing structured-grid methods. Furthermore, most real world flows are rather difficult to represent geometrically with structured grids. Unstructured-grid methods offer a release from both of these constraints. However, just as it took many years for structured-grid methods to be well understood and reliable tools for LES, unstructured-grid methods must be carefully studied before we can expect them to attain their full potential. In the past two years, important building blocks have been put into place making possible a careful study of LES on unstructured grids. The first building block was an efficient mesh generator which allowed the placement of points according to smooth variation of physical length scales. This variation of length scales is in all three directions independently, which allows a large reduction in points when compared to structured-grid methods, which can only vary length scales in one direction at a time. The second building block was the development of a dynamic model appropriate for unstructured grids. The principle obstacle was the development of an unstructured-grid filtering operator. In the past year, some of the new filters developed by Jansen have been implemented into a highly parallelized finite element code based on the Galerkin/least-squares finite element method. We have chosen the NACA 4412 airfoil at maximum lift as the first simulation for a variety of reasons. First, it is a problem of significant interest since it would be the first LES of an aircraft component. Second, this flow has been the subject of three experimental studies. The third reason for considering this flow is the variety of flow features which provide an important test of the dynamic model. Only the dynamic model can be expected to perform satisfactorily in this variety of situations: from the laminar regions where it must not modify the flow at all to the turbulent boundary layers and wake where it must represent a wide variety of subgrid-scale structures. The flow configuration we have chosen is that of Wadcock (1987) at Reynolds number based on chord Re(sub c) = u(sub infinity)c/v = 1.64 x 10(exp 6), Mach number M = 0.2, and 12 deg angle of attack.

Jansen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constrained Block Nonlinear Neural Dynamical Models

Neural network modules conditioned by known priors can be effectively trained and combined to represent systems with nonlinear dynamics. This work explores a novel formulation for data-efficient learning of deep control-oriented nonlinear dynamical models by embedding local model structure and constraints. The proposed method consists of neural network blocks that represent input, state, and output dynamics with constraints placed on the network weights and system variables. For handling partially observable dynamical systems, we utilize a state observer neural network to estimate the states of the system's latent dynamics. We evaluate the performance of the proposed architecture and training methods on system identification tasks for three nonlinear systems: a continuous stirred tank reactor, a two tank interacting system, and an aerodynamics body. Models optimized with a few thousand system state observations accurately represent system dynamics in open loop simulation over thousands of time steps from a single set of initial conditions. Experimental results demonstrate an order of magnitude reduction in open-loop simulation mean squared error for our constrained, block-structured neural models when compared to traditional unstructured and unconstrained neural network models.

Skomski, Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward the analytic bootstrap of energy correlators

In this paper, we present a framework for the analytic bootstrap of three-point energy correlators, a crucial observable in $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 super Yang-Mills theory and quantum chromodynamics (QCD). Our approach combines spherical contour techniques, general physical constraints such as pole cancellations, and power correction data in the singular limits to determine its analytic expression. In contrast to previous bootstrap studies restricted to scattering amplitudes for supersymmetric theories, our framework makes use of the properties of Feynman integrals, marking a significant step toward bootstrapping realistic QCD observables. Using this method, we derive analytic expressions for leading-order three-point energy correlators in the multi-collinear limit with equal and unequal energy weights, where the latter are crucial ingredients for projected N -point energy correlators. We also apply the recently developed technique of analytic regression with lattice reduction as a way to bypass needing explicit expressions for the singular limits. Bridging theoretical advances in scattering amplitudes with the renewed interest in weighted cross-sections, our work opens the door to precision tests of QCD dynamics through analytic event-shape predictions.

jet substructure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry instability induced by topological phase transitions

The symmetry-topology interplay dictates how to define order parameters and classify material ordered phases. However, current understanding of this interplay has been predominately approached from a one-sided perspective, with topological states being classified within the constraints imposed by specific fixed symmetries. Here, in this study, we complete this full circle by demonstrating spontaneous symmetry breaking that results from a periodic alteration of topological phases induced by light in a centrosymmetric Dirac material ZrTe 5 . The distinguishing feature is the observation of robust correlation and striking anomalies in the fluence and temperature dependence of key transport parameters. First, both shift current 𝐽 𝑠 and displacement current 𝐽 𝑑 , arising from interband transition and infrared phonon driving, respectively, along with charge carrier pumping, exhibit similar behaviors. Second, they all peak at similar low pump fluence, followed by a subsequent reduction as the fluence further increases. This behavior cannot be explained by conventional energetically allowed, direct excitations. Third, all the three observables exhibit anomalies when they approach the topological phase transition temperature. These results highlight the unique low-energy pumping behaviors in ZrTe 5 , characterized by reversible fluence dependence and a “hinge-like” interaction that connects various electronic and lattice observables, including phonons, charge carriers, and currents. Our findings, supported by model analysis, provide key insights into the fragility of crystalline (inversion) and time-reversal symmetries during the dynamics of topological phase transitions. This fragility drives spontaneous symmetry breaking, evidenced by the synchronized emergence of off-resonant infrared phonons and broken-symmetry photocurrents.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1989

Determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution, appendix 4

The power spectrum for a stationary random process can be defined with the Wiener-Khintchine Theorem, which says that the power spectrum and the auto correlation function are a Fourier transform pair. To implement this theorem for signals that are discrete and of finite length we can use the Blackman-Tukey method. Blackman and Tukey (1958) show that a function w(tau), called a lag window, can be applied to the auto correlation estimates to obtain power spectrum estimates that are statistically stable. The Fourier transform of w(r) is called a spectral window. Typical choices for spectral windows show a distinct trade-off between the main lobe width and side lobe strength. A new idea for designing windows by taking linear combinations of the standard windows to produce hybrid windows was introduced by Smith (1985). We implement Smith's idea to obtain spectral windows with narrow main lobes and smaller (compared with typical windows) near side lobes. One of the main contributions of this thesis is that we show that Smith's problem is equivalent to a Quadratic Programming (QP) problem with linear equality and inequality constraints. A computer program was written to produce hybrid windows by setting up and solving the QP problem. We also developed and solved two variations of the original problem. The two variations involved changing the inequality constraints in both cases from non negativity on the combination coefficients to non negativity on the hybrid lag window itself. For the second variation, the window functions used to construct the hybrid window were changed to a frequency-variable set of truncated cosinusoids. A series of tests was run with the three computer programs to investigate the behavior of the hybrid spectral and lag windows. Emphasis was put on obtaining spectral windows with both relatively narrow main lobes and the lowest possible (for these algorithms) near side lobes. Some success was achieved for this goal. A 10 dB peak side lobe reduction over the rectangular spectral window without significant main lobe broadening was achieved. Also, average side lobe levels of -117 dB were reached at a cost of doubling the main lobe width (at the -3 dB point).

Ioup, George E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Robust nonlinear control of vectored thrust aircraft

An interdisciplinary program in robust control for nonlinear systems with applications to a variety of engineering problems is outlined. Major emphasis will be placed on flight control, with both experimental and analytical studies. This program builds on recent new results in control theory for stability, stabilization, robust stability, robust performance, synthesis, and model reduction in a unified framework using Linear Fractional Transformations (LFT's), Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI's), and the structured singular value micron. Most of these new advances have been accomplished by the Caltech controls group independently or in collaboration with researchers in other institutions. These recent results offer a new and remarkably unified framework for all aspects of robust control, but what is particularly important for this program is that they also have important implications for system identification and control of nonlinear systems. This combines well with Caltech's expertise in nonlinear control theory, both in geometric methods and methods for systems with constraints and saturations.

Doyle, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genomic insights into redox-driven microbial processes for carbon decomposition in thawing Arctic soils and permafrost

Climate change is rapidly transforming Arctic landscapes where increasing soil temperatures speed up permafrost thaw. This exposes large carbon stocks to microbial decomposition, possibly worsening climate change by releasing more greenhouse gases. Understanding how microbes break down soil carbon, especially under the anaerobic conditions of thawing permafrost, is important to determine future changes. Here, we studied the microbial community dynamics and soil carbon decomposition potential in permafrost and active layer soils under anaerobic laboratory conditions that simulated an Arctic summer thaw. The microbial and viral compositions in the samples were analyzed based on metagenomes, metagenome-assembled genomes, and metagenomic viral contigs (mVCs). Following the thawing of permafrost, there was a notable shift in microbial community structure, with fermentative Firmicutes and Bacteroidota taking over from Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria over the 60-day incubation period. The increase in iron and sulfate-reducing microbes had a significant role in limiting methane production from thawed permafrost, underscoring the competition within microbial communities. We explored the growth strategies of microbial communities and found that slow growth was the major strategy in both the active layer and permafrost. Our findings challenge the assumption that fast-growing microbes mainly respond to environmental changes like permafrost thaw. Instead, they indicate a common strategy of slow growth among microbial communities, likely due to the thermodynamic constraints of soil substrates and electron acceptors, and the need for microbes to adjust to post-thaw conditions. The mVCs harbored a wide range of auxiliary metabolic genes that may support cell protection from ice formation in virus-infected cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗