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NASA NTRS2011

Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements

Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation.

Wang, Sheng-Hsiang↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earth s climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. WCRP provides the means to bridge the different motivating objectives on which national efforts focus.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observing Climate with Satellites - Are We on Thin Ice?

The Earth s climate is determined by irradiance from the Sun and properties of the atmosphere, oceans, and land that determine the reflection, absorption, and emission of energy within our atmosphere and at the Earth s surface. Since the 1970s, Earth-viewing satellites have complimented non-satellite geophysical observations with consistent, quantitative, and spatially-continuous measurements that have led to an unprecedented understanding of the Earth s climate system. I will describe the Earth s climate system as elaborated by satellite and in situ observations, review arguments against global warming, and show the convergence of evidence for human-caused warming of our planet.

Tucker, Compton↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model-resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, the authors introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and nonorographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. Comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parameterization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations are shown to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. The authors also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Then results are presented where the nonorographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the intertropical convergence zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, a strategy to include these effects in a climate-dependent manner is suggested.

Geller, Marvin A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Free Flyer Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) and Climate Services Mission

NOAA's planned Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) mission will fly along with the NOAA user service payloads Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) and Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT). In ' order to guarantee continuity in the 33-year solar irradiance climate data record, TSIS must be launched in time to overlap with current on-orbit solar irradiance instruments. Currently TSIS is moving towards a launch rcadin~ss date of January 2015. TSIS provides for continuation of the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) ,currently onboard NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) platform, launched in January 2003. The difficulty of ensuring continuity has increased due to the launch failure of NASA's Glory mission with its improved TIM. Achieving the needed overlap must now rely on extending SORCE. and maintaining the TSIS schedule. TSIS is one component of a NASA-NOAA joint program (JPSS) planned to transition certain climate observations to operational mode. We summarize issues of continuity, improvements being made to the TIM and 81M sensors, and plans to provide for traceability of total and spectral irradiance measurements to ground-based cryogenic standards.

Cahalan, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

We report a series of experiments to explore clima~ responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Wen, G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Instrumentation and First Results of the Reflected Solar Demonstration System for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission key goals include enabling observation of high accuracy long-term climate change trends, use of these observations to test and improve climate forecasts, and calibration of operational and research sensors. The spaceborne instrument suites include a reflected solar spectroradiometer, emitted infrared spectroradiometer, and radio occultation receivers. The requirement for the RS instrument is that derived reflectance must be traceable to Sl standards with an absolute uncertainty of <0.3% and the error budget that achieves this requirement is described in previo1L5 work. This work describes the Solar/Lunar Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS), a calibration demonstration system for RS instrument, and presents initial calibration and characterization methods and results. SOLARIS is an Offner spectrometer with two separate focal planes each with its own entrance aperture and grating covering spectral ranges of 320-640, 600-2300 nm over a full field-of-view of 10 degrees with 0.27 milliradian sampling. Results from laboratory measurements including use of integrating spheres, transfer radiometers and spectral standards combined with field-based solar and lunar acquisitions are presented. These results will be used to assess the accuracy and repeatability of the radiometric and spectral characteristics of SOLARIS, which will be presented against the sensor-level requirements addressed in the CLARREO RS instrument error budget.

McCorkel, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2013

Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and correlate highly with the gauge observations there. Additional evaluation of the data assimilation using the MERRA Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data, which consists of the assimilated observations as well as forecast an analysis error fields. This work represents an initial evaluation of using the MERRA reanalysis to study regional climate variations of the United States, and identifying its applied limitations

Bosilovich, M G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST -AIRC): An overview

As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

Zhangqing, Li↗

NASA NTRS2013

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

Storelvmo, T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Munasinghe, L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Ancient Martian Climate System

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than what they are today. I will then discuss the origin and evolution of the early atmosphere from accretion and core formation to the end of the late heavy bombardment, including estimates of the volatile inventory, outgassing history, and potential escape mechanisms. This sets the stage for a comprehensive look at the climate system of early Mars and the attempts to solve the faint young sun problem. I will review the basic physics involved and then step through the different ideas highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. I will then conclude with a summary and a discussion of potentially promising avenues of future research

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2012

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an ~1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, ~5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

Drought↗

NASA NTRS2013

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Troposphere↗