SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Bayesian method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Non -degenerate marginal-likelihood calibration with application to quantum characterization

Here, we propose a marginal likelihood strategy within the Kennedy-O’Hagan (KOH) Bayesian framework, where a Gaussian process (GP) models the discrepancy between a physical system and its simulator. Our approach introduces a novel marginalized likelihood by integrating out the degenerate eigenspace of the covariance matrix, rather than approximating the original likelihood. Unlike approximation methods that compromise accuracy for computational efficiency, our method defines an exact likelihood—distinct from the original but preserving all relevant information. This formulation achieves computational efficiency and stability, even for large datasets where the covariance matrix nears degeneracy. Applied to the characterization of a superconducting quantum device at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the approach enhances the predictive accuracy of the Lindblad master equations for modeling Ramsey measurement data by effectively quantifying uncertainties consistent with the quantum data.

general physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pushing the limits of detectability: mixed dark matter from strong gravitational lenses

One of the frontiers for advancing what is known about dark matter lies in using strong gravitational lenses to characterize the population of the smallest dark matter haloes. There is a large volume of information in strong gravitational lens images – the question we seek to answer is to what extent we can refine this information. To this end, we forecast the detectability of a mixed warm and cold dark matter scenario using the anomalous flux ratio method from strong gravitational lensed images. The halo mass function of the mixed dark matter scenario is suppressed relative to cold dark matter but still predicts numerous low-mass dark matter haloes relative to warm dark matter. Since the strong lensing signal receives a contribution from a range of dark matter halo masses and since the signal is sensitive to the specific configuration of dark matter haloes, not just the halo mass function, degeneracies between different forms of suppression in the halo mass function, relative to cold dark matter, can arise. Here, we find that, with a set of lenses with different configurations of the main deflector and hence different sensitivities to different mass ranges of the halo mass function, the different forms of suppression of the halo mass function between the warm dark matter model and the mixed dark matter model can be distinguished with 40 lenses with Bayesian odds of 30:1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing approximate modular Bayesian inference by emulating the conditional posterior

In modular Bayesian analyses, complex models are composed of distinct modules, each representing different aspects of the data or prior information. In this context, fully Bayesian approaches can sometimes lead to undesirable feedback between modules, compromising the integrity of the inference. The “cut-distribution” prevents unwanted influence between modules by “cutting” feedback. The direct sampling (DS) algorithm is standard practice for approximating the cut-distribution, but it can be computationally intensive, especially when the number of imputations required is large. An enhanced method is proposed, the Emulating the Conditional Posterior (ECP) algorithm, which leverages emulation to increase the number of imputations. Through numerical experiment it is demonstrated that the ECP algorithm outperforms the traditional DS approach in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, particularly when resources are constrained. Here, it is also shown how the DS algorithm can be improved using ideas from design of experiments. Some practical recommendations are given for algorithm choice in modular Bayesian analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploring physics of ferroelectric domain walls via Bayesian analysis of atomically resolved STEM data

The physics of ferroelectric domain walls is explored using the Bayesian inference analysis of atomically resolved STEM data. We demonstrate that domain wall profile shapes are ultimately sensitive to the nature of the order parameter in the material, including the functional form of Ginzburg-Landau-Devonshire expansion, and numerical value of the corresponding parameters. The preexisting materials knowledge naturally folds in the Bayesian framework in the form of prior distributions, with the different order parameters forming competing (or hierarchical) models. Here, we explore the physics of the ferroelectric domain walls in BiFeO 3 using this method, and derive the posterior estimates of relevant parameters. More generally, this inference approach both allows learning materials physics from experimental data with associated uncertainty quantification, and establishing guidelines for instrumental development answering questions on what resolution and information limits are necessary for reliable observation of specific physical mechanisms of interest.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization on Manifolds via Graph Gaussian Processes

This paper integrates manifold learning techniques within a Gaussian process upper confidence bound algorithm to optimize an objective function on a manifold. Our approach is motivated by applications where a full representation of the manifold is not available and querying the objective is expensive. We rely on a point cloud of manifold samples to define a graph Gaussian process surrogate model for the objective. Query points are sequentially chosen using the posterior distribution of the surrogate model given all previous queries. We establish regret bounds in terms of the number of queries and the size of the point cloud. Several numerical examples complement the theory and illustrate the performance of our method.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Proactive Frequency Stability Scheme via Bayesian Filters and Synchrophasors

Underfrequency (UF) load shedding schemes are traditionally implemented in two ways: One approach is based on manual load shedding, with system operators requesting loads to be shed ahead of anticipated stressful operating conditions. Manual load shedding is usually done through phone calls. The second method is automatic load shedding via underfrequency relays. Using static static settings, these schemes can be designed to operate in stages and drop previously identified loads. The main limitation of traditional load shedding schemes is that they are reactive and leave little room for optimized corrective actions. This work presents a proactive and automatic underfrequency load shedding solution for power systems. Measurements are captured via phasor measurement units (PMUs) at relatively low sampling rates of 30 Hz. These measurements are then processed by particle filters who predict the future state of the system's frequency. Based on these predictions excess load is determined and shed. Comparative case studies are performed in simulated environments. Easy-to-implement models, without hard-to-derive parameters, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.

Paramo, Gian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cluster characterization in atom probe tomography: Machine learning using multiple summary functions

In this work, we develop a machine learning-based method to characterize intracluster concentration (ρ c ), background concentration (ρ b ), clustering radius (r̄), and radius dispersity (δ r ) in simulated atom probe tomography data using multiple spatial statistics summary functions to train a Bayesian regularized neural network. Here, we build upon previous work that utilized Ripley’s K-function by incorporating additional features from nearest-neighbor spatial statistics summary functions to better characterize concentration-based metrics. The addition of nearest-neighbor based features allows for highly accurate estimates of ρ c and ρ b , both with 90% of the predictions within 4.0% of the real value; the root-mean-square errors are reduced by 81.5% and 92.8% from predictions using only K-function based features, respectively. Additionally, including these nearest-neighbor based features improves the ability to differentiate between r̄ and δ r .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Learning of Adatom Interactions from Atomically Resolved Imaging Data

Atomic structures and adatom geometries of surfaces encode information about the thermodynamics and kinetics of the processes that lead to their formation, and which can be captured by a generative physical model. In this work, we develop a workflow based on a machine-learning-based analysis of scanning tunneling microscopy images to reconstruct the atomic and adatom positions, and a Bayesian optimization procedure to minimize statistical distance between the chosen physical models and experimental observations. We optimize the parameters of a 2- and 3-parameter Ising model describing surface ordering and use the derived generative model to make predictions across the parameter space. For concentration dependence, we compare the predicted morphologies at different adatom concentrations with the dissimilar regions on the sample surfaces that serendipitously had different adatom concentrations. The proposed workflow can be used to reconstruct the thermodynamic models and associated uncertainties from the experimental observations of materials microstructures. The code used in the manuscript is available at https://github.com/saimani5/Adatom_interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗

NASA NTRS1984

Bayesian estimation of normal mixture parameters

A Bayesian, or penalized maximum likelihood, approach to the problem of estimating the parameters of a mixture of multivariate normal distributions is proposed. The Bayesian formulation eliminates the problem of singularities in the likelihood function and results in an attractive EM-like procedure. Although the question of consistency is not settled, it is suggested that the proposed method has certain advantages over both the constrained and unconstrained maximum likelihood procedures.

Peters, C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Detection of obstacles on runway using Ego-Motion compensation and tracking of significant features

This report describes a method for obstacle detection on a runway for autonomous navigation and landing of an aircraft. Detection is done in the presence of extraneous features such as tiremarks. Suitable features are extracted from the image and warping using approximately known camera and plane parameters is performed in order to compensate ego-motion as far as possible. Residual disparity after warping is estimated using an optical flow algorithm. Features are tracked from frame to frame so as to obtain more reliable estimates of their motion. Corrections are made to motion parameters with the residual disparities using a robust method, and features having large residual disparities are signaled as obstacles. Sensitivity analysis of the procedure is also studied. Nelson's optical flow constraint is proposed to separate moving obstacles from stationary ones. A Bayesian framework is used at every stage so that the confidence in the estimates can be determined.

Kasturi, Rangachar↗

NASA NTRS2018

Generating Exploration Mission-3 Trajectories to a 9:2 NRHO using Machine Learning

The purpose of this thesis is to design a machine learning algorithm platform that provides expanded knowledge of mission availability through a launch season by improving trajectory resolution and introducing launch mission forecasting. The specific scenario addressed in this paper is one in which data is provided for four deterministic translational maneuvers through a mission to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) with a 9:2 synodic frequency. Current launch availability knowledge under NASA's Orion Orbit Performance Team is established by altering optimization variables associated to given reference launch epochs. This current method can bean abstract task and relies on an orbit analyst to structure a mission based on an established mission design methodology associated to the performance of Orion and NASA's Space Launch System. Introducing a machine learning algorithm trained to construct mission scenarios within the feasible range of known trajectories reduces the required interaction of the orbit analyst by removing the needed step of optimizing the orbit to fit an expected translational response required of the spacecraft. In this study, k-Nearest Neighbor and Bayesian Linear Regression successfully predicted classical orbital elements for the launch windows observed. However both algorithms had limitations due to their approaches to model fitting. Training machine learning algorithms off of classical orbital elements introduced a repetitive approach to reconstructing mission segments for different arrival opportunities through the launch window and can prove to be a viable method of launch window scan generation for future missions.

Guzman, Esteban↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analytical gradient-based optimization of CALPHAD model parameters

The calibration of CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models involves the solution of a very challenging high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problem. Traditional approaches to parameter fitting predominantly rely on gradient-free methods, which while robust, are computationally inefficient and often scale poorly with model complexity. In this work, we introduce and demonstrate a generalizable framework for analytic gradient-based optimization of the parameters of the CALPHAD model enabled by the recently formalized Jansson derivative technique. This method allows for efficient evaluation of gradients of thermodynamic properties at equilibrium with respect to model parameters, even in the presence of arbitrarily complex internal degrees of freedom. Leveraging these semi-analytic gradients, we employ the conjugate gradient (CG) method to optimize thermodynamic model parameters for four binary alloy systems: Cu-Mg, Fe-Ni, Cr-Ni, and Cr-Fe. Across all systems, CG achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to Bayesian ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with improvements in computational efficiency ranging from one to three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our results establish a new paradigm for CALPHAD assessments in which high fidelity data-rich model calibration becomes tractable using deterministic gradient-informed algorithms.

CALPHAD↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data assimilation in operator algebras

We develop an algebraic framework for sequential data assimilation of partially observed dynamical systems. In this framework, Bayesian data assimilation is embedded in a nonabelian operator algebra, which provides a representation of observables by multiplication operators and probability densities by density operators (quantum states). In the algebraic approach, the forecast step of data assimilation is represented by a quantum operation induced by the Koopman operator of the dynamical system. Moreover, the analysis step is described by a quantum effect, which generalizes the Bayesian observational update rule. Projecting this formulation to finite-dimensional matrix algebras leads to computational schemes that are i) automatically positivity-preserving and ii) amenable to consistent data-driven approximation using kernel methods for machine learning. Moreover, these methods are natural candidates for implementation on quantum computers. Applications to the Lorenz 96 multiscale system and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in a climate model show promising results in terms of forecast skill and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Self-Leveling Inks for Printing Ultra-uniform Perovskite Solar Modules by Flexography

The report describes the development of scalable manufacturing methods for high-performance, stable perovskite solar modules using flexographic printing. The project developed self-leveling perovskite inks that exploit Marangoni flows to reduce coating defects and improve large-area film uniformity. Bayesian optimization was integrated with high-throughput photoluminescence mapping and photovoltaic measurements to efficiently optimize ink formulations and printing conditions. The resulting printed perovskite solar cells achieved champion power conversion efficiencies above 21.6%, with median efficiencies exceeding 20% across large device batches. At the module scale, printed devices achieved active-area efficiencies up to approximately 17.3% on 25 cm² substrates. The project also demonstrated improved performance and stability using additively patterned interconnections compared with laser-scribed controls. Overall, the work establishes a data-driven, roll-compatible pathway toward high-throughput, low-capital-cost manufacturing of uniform and stable perovskite photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗