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DOE OSTI2016

Insights and Trends from a Literature Assessment of the Thorium Fuel Cycle

The thorium fuel cycle is often perceived to have limited experience, thereby imposing a barrier to its implementation. Thorium fuel cycles do not have the degree of commercial-scale experience associated with the uranium fuel cycle (especially the use of uranium oxide in a once-through configuration in light- or heavy-water reactors); however the abundance of major research campaigns - and the test and demonstration reactor operations that capped these campaigns - illustrate that significant knowledge concerning the use of thorium is available. Part of the reason for thorium's perceived immaturity is that the information is scattered among a multitude of sources and has not previously been consolidated and evaluated on a comprehensive scale. In recognition of this challenge, Vanderbilt University (VU) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) included a thorium fuel cycle literature assessment task as part of their Nuclear Energy University Programs (NEUP) project. The first phase of this literature assessment culminated in a comprehensive report. This paper describes the highlights of the initial version of this literature report, including item quantification, trends by category, and implications. This preliminary literature assessment has identified that a wealth of documented experience with thorium fuel cycles exists, across many varieties and specific technology options. Though a significant share of the literature is comprised of systems studies and/or proposed work, there is also a substantial knowledge base from experimentation and demonstration with thorium fuel cycle technologies. It is intended that this initial literature report serve as a starting point for continued discussions and consolidation of thorium fuel cycle literature. There are likely still records of work from the 1950's to the 1970's (and even more recently) which could be significant but were not adequately catalogued or are not readily available to a broad audience; hopefully, the ongoing discussions that have been spurred by the present work will stimulate making these documents available. The authors strongly encourage those with knowledge of additional data sources to share them with the interested community. Furthermore, the 21. century is experiencing a resurgence in thorium fuel cycle work that continues to develop the knowledge base. Thus, it would be beneficial to produce updated accounts of this thorium literature summary in future years. Ultimately, the items identified during the course of this literature assessment, along with additional items that continue to be identified, will be housed in an information repository. This will take the form of a relational database, with specific functionality to be determined based on user interest. This format is intended to enable future users to quickly find specific topics or sources as well as assess how much information is available about a particular topic. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development of an Assessment Method for Radiation Exposure from NORM in Construction Materials - 19032

Once radiological impact is usually considered to be related to nuclear energy accidents and atomic bombs, most of the research on radiation protection has been focused on artificial radionuclides and radioactive waste. Less attention had been given to radiation exposure due to the presence of naturally occurring radioactive materials in raw materials usually considered as not radioactive and used in manufacturing of many building materials. At national level, radiological data from building materials is not available as the control of building materials regarding the content of naturally occurring radionuclides is addressed for the first time in the EU Directive 2013/59/EURATOM. At international level the research developed is largely incomplete: data on the activity concentration measurements of Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 in building materials used in the construction industry in the EU is non-statistically representative. The data collected are not enough to have an idea of the European situation, but they confirm high concentration of Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40, in some cases. Moreover, most of the research studies carried out in the EU are based on the assessment of the activity concentration index, which was derived for practical monitoring purposes to identify whether a dose criterion is met; to be used only as a screening tool for identifying materials which might be of concern. The dose criterion considers only effective dose due to γ-radiation, but population at home is also exposed to Rn-222 (and Rn-220) from soil, water and building material itself, sometimes to β radiation from superficial materials, and even to Cs-137 from some types of wood. The indoors exposure can be actually much higher than the value assessed with the dose criterion method. Also, in most cases toxic and radioactive components are inseparably. Therefore, all technical questions related to the toxic part of these materials should be addressed: an integrated approach is needed to assess the impacts of using these materials (new materials, recyclates and by-products). Until recently, radiation from natural sources seemed both unremarkable and unalterable - a background phenomenon. It is now known that doses from natural sources and in particular, decay products of radon can be remarkably high within houses in some areas. Therefore, concerning exposure to natural radiation sources, special provisions have been laid down in the EU Directive 1996/28 EURATOM. Still, the radiological evaluation of building materials was not mandatory in this Directive. The most recent EU Directive 2013/59/EURATOM brings some changes concerning the exposure to natural occurring radioactive materials but the previous screening method was kept. An effective dose of 1 mSv/year was set, as a basis for the exposure to radionuclides of natural origin (except for radon). This work seeks to develop an integrated radiological and chemical-mineralogical assessment methodology for realistic exposure scenarios concerning different types of raw materials, by-products and recyclates and used as building materials. The methodology includes the characterization of selected materials accounting for radiological exposure - calculation of effective dose; toxicity assessment - determination of chemical composition and leaching tests, study of changes in the microstructure and consequently in the radon emanation coefficient. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Advanced Condition Monitoring Techniques

With the shift away from time-based maintenance and toward condition-based maintenance, and to reduce overall maintenance costs, there has been an upsurge in the usage and development of advanced condition monitoring (ACM) techniques for real-time monitoring of nuclear power plant (NPP) components. ACM is particularly useful in the development of digital twins, which are designed to predict the failure or degradation of plant components. Successful implementation of ACM requires an assessment to inform the development of a risk-informed approach to evaluate the use of ACM to meet Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) regulations for in-service testing (IST) programs. This includes the monitoring and diagnostics of reactor components and systems in current, new, and advanced reactors. A key component in ACM is the usage of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that can employ real-time data from instrumentation and sensors to detect and predict reactor component degradations. Such predictive capabilities enable early detection of component degradation so as to help plant personnel plan and execute necessary maintenance. For successful implementation of ML/AI in ACM such that regulatory requirements are met, a risk-informed graded approach is needed to assess the reliability and performance of ML/AI for ACM. The American Society for Mechanical Engineers (ASME) developed their Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Code to provide guidance on safe, reliable O&M of NPPs. The IST section of the O&M Code specifically establishes requirements for IST and examination to gauge operational readiness of components in water-cooled NPPs. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of how reliability and risk assessment can be integrated with ACM to assess component performance by non-nuclear industries. This is followed by different methodologies and approaches for conducting performance and reliability assessments so as to meet IST requirements for NPP components.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment for Advanced Condition Monitoring Techniques

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A computational risk assessment approach to the integration of seismic and flooding hazards with internal hazards

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants historically focuses on internal events at the plant, rather than external hazards. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for assessing the risk associated with low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often using conservative elements in the analysis, as is the case with the Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin approach commonly used for seismic PRA. The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability program has been investigating the use of first principles analyses to provide a more realistic assessment of the risk of external hazards, in a process called computational risk assessment (CRA). Efforts undertaken are described in the development of CRA methods to integrate the risk associated with seismic and flooding events into traditional PRA. Further, the results of four case studies are presented.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental Life Cycle Assessment Spreadsheet tool for Deep Direct-Use Geothermal at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Campus

A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) spreadsheet tool was developed to analyze potential environmental benefits of a deep direct-use (DDU) geothermal energy system (GES) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (U of IL) campus. The LCA spreadsheet tool is a unique contribution to the feasibility study that provides further insight into the cradle-to-grave environmental impacts associated with the GES over the operating life time, as well as other DDU GES with similar objectives. The tool allows for a more in-depth analysis of the feasibility of DDU GES with respect to the overall environmental impacts. For the U of IL assessment, a doublet (two-well) system is evaluated, which is connected to aboveground mechanical system to supply heating to six agricultural research facilities. The additional of new equipment are assessed for the technical and economic feasibility. The results from this study will also allow geothermal resources from the entirety of the Illinois Basin (ILB) to be assessed and allow the DDU technology to be extended to additional areas of the ILB and other low-temperature sedimentary basins with similar characteristics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Energy Resilience Assessment Methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigations to reduce the impact of grid outages and other power disruptions. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory worked with military bases and stakeholders in their local community to develop a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology for sites, bases, and campuses to assess energy risks and develop prioritized solutions to increase site resilience. This includes steps to assess the baseline resilience of the site, identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities, analyze risks based on hazard likelihood and vulnerability probability and consequence, identify and prioritize mitigation actions based on cost, difficulty, and risk reduction, and then develop an action plan and implement solutions. The method focuses on risks to a site's primary missions, infrastructure, and population, as well as risks to infrastructure and population in the surrounding community that may impact the site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Handheld Raman Spectrometers: Assessment Report

In April 2022 the National Urban Security Technology Laboratory’s System Assessment and Validation for Emergency Responders program conducted an operational assessment of ten commercially available handheld Raman spectrometers. Additionally, prior to the operational assessment, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted laboratory testing of the devices, including scanning a number of samples in various containers. This report summarizes the results of the assessment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Approach to Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis: Application of Lag and Linger Effects

Dependence assessment refers to an approach used in human reliability analysis (HRA) to adjust a human error probability (HEP) for the following action by considering the impact of the preceding action. It has been known to significantly affect the overall results of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If the dependence assessment is not adequate, the result could be unconvincing for explaining the operator failures in the context of PSA. To date, several methods and some recent research have identified suggestions for treating dependence issues in HRA; however, these are still exclusively based on the intrinsic approach of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), an HRA method. THERP inevitably has a challenge with the subjectivity of expert evaluation as well as the requirement for PSA and HRA expertise with resource-intensive and time-consuming processes. This paper suggests an approach to dependence assessment that could not only minimize the influence of expert judgment, but also saves time to perform the analysis with reasonable manpower. It modifies existing HRA methods with considering lag and linger effects to apply dependence effects for them. Based on a representative HRA method, i.e., Standardized Plant Analysis Risk - HRA (SPAR-H), guidance for how to apply lag and linger effects for the HRA method is suggested. Then, an investigation is carried out to compare quantification results of the revised HRA method with that of the original approach based on experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2022

AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Systems in Nioro, Senegal: Representative Agricultural Pathways, Climate, Crop and Economic Datasets

This paper describes the datasets that were used to implement an AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment for the Nioro region of Senegal to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the principal agricultural system in the Senegal peanut basin and to assess adaptations of that system to climate change under current as well as future climate and socio-economic conditions. This dataset includes the Representative Agricultural Pathways developed for Nioro from 2000-2050; the climate data that were used to implement crop yield simulations; the data that were used to parameterize the DSSAT and APSIM crop models, including historical climate data and future climate scenarios; and the data that were used to parameterize the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment (TOAMD) economic simulation model, as well as simulated model outputs.

AgMIP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗

DOE OSTI2012

Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermodynamic assessment of Ag–Cu–In

The Ag-Cu-In thermodynamic material system is of interest for brazing alloys and chalcopyrite thin-film photovoltaics. To advance these applications, Ag-Cu-In was assessed and a Calphad model was developed. Binary Ag-Cu and Cu-In parameters were taken from previous assessments, while Ag-In was re-assessed. Structure-based models were employed for ..beta..-bcc(A2)-Ag 3 In, ..gamma..-Ag 9 In 4 , and AgIn 2 to obtain good fit to enthalpy, phase boundary, and invariant reaction data for Ag-In. Ternary Ag-Cu-In parameters were optimized to achieve excellent fit to activity, enthalpy, and extensive phase equilibrium data. Relative to the previous Ag-Cu-In assessment, fit was improved while fewer parameters were used.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Waterlogging risk assessment based on self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural networks: A case study of an urban storm in Beijing

Due to rapid urbanization, waterlogging induced by torrential rainfall has become a global concern and a potential risk affecting urban habitant's safety. Widespread waterlogging disasters have occurred almost annually in the urban area of Beijing, the capital of China. Based on a self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural network (ANN), a graded waterlogging risk assessment was conducted on 56 low-lying points in Beijing, China. Social risk factors, such as Gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and traffic congestion, were utilized as input datasets in this study. The results indicate that SOM-ANN is suitable for automatically and quantitatively assessing risks associated with waterlogging. The greatest advantage of SOM-ANN in the assessment of waterlogging risk is that a priori knowledge about classification categories and assessment indicator weights is not needed. As a result, SOM-ANN can effectively overcome interference from subjective factors, producing classification results that are more objective and accurate. In this paper, the risk level of waterlogging in Beijing was divided into five grades. As a result, the points that were assigned risk grades of IV or V were located mainly in the districts of Chaoyang, Haidian, Xicheng, and Dongcheng.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2010

Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in a major site of e-waste dumping such as West Africa. Therefore, considerations are also given on data gaps possibly fitting a systematic risk assessment of the e-waste health impacts in different subscenarios as well as possible protective factors for exposed subpopulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

Integrated dynamic policy management methodology and system for strategic environmental assessment of golf course installation policy in Taiwan

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) focuses primarily on assessing how policies, plans, and programs (PPPs) influence the sustainability of the involved regions. However, the processes of assessing policies and developing management strategies for pollution load and resource use are usually separate in the current SEA system. This study developed a policy management methodology to overcome the defects generated during the above processes. This work first devised a dynamic management framework using the methods of systems thinking, system dynamics, and Managing for Results (MFRs). Furthermore, a driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) indicator system was developed. The golf course installation policy was applied as a case study. Taiwan, counties of Taiwan, and the golf courses within those individual counties were identified as a system, subsystems, and objects, respectively. This study identified an object-linked double-layer framework with multi-stage-option to simultaneously to quantify golf courses in each subsystem and determine ratios of abatement and allocation for pollution load and resource use of each golf course. The DPSIR indicator values for each item of each golf course in each subsystem are calculated based on the options taken in the two decision layers. The summation of indicator values for all items of all golf courses in all subsystems according to various options is defined as the sustainability value of the policy. An optimization model and a system (IDPMS) were developed to obtain the greatest sustainability value of the policy, while golf course quantity, human activity intensity, total quantities of pollution load and resource use are simultaneously obtained. The solution method based on enumeration of multiple bounds for objectives and constraints (EMBOC) was developed for the problem with 1.95 x 10{sup 128} combinations of possible options to solve the optimal solution in ten minutes using a personal computer with 3.0 GHz CPU. This study obtain the policy with the optimal environmental sustainability value in Taiwan is 102 golf courses. Human activity intensity and total quantities of pollution load and resource use which are concurrently obtained are less than those of the existing policy and the existing quantities in 2006. The optimal solution remains unchanged under most sensitivity analysis conditions, unless the weights and constraints are extremely changed. The analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can be used to assist the authorities for simultaneously generating and assessing the policy during the SEA process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗