AI-Assisted Parameter Tuning Will Speed Development and Clarify Uncertainty in E3SM
Focal Area: This idea is best aligned with predictive modeling. It targets Earth System Model improvement and uncertainty quantification
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Advancing Asset Management in Water Infrastructure Systems
Aging water system infrastructure, including drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater, poses a growing challenge for utilities and municipalities. These water systems have well documented challenges with respect to their age, condition, and level of service. ASCE annual report cards consistently rate these infrastructure systems in the United States as underfunded, overcapacity, or past service life (ASCE 2025 Report Card). For example, Chini and Stillwell (2017) estimated that the mean water loss in drinking water systems, i.e., non-revenue water, is approximately 16% across the United States. These concerns are not just relegated to the United States, with Courtenay, British Columbia, identifying 17% of their water main pipes as in a ‘poor’ condition state, defined as a category condition 5 out of 5 (City of Courtenay, 2024). These cases illustrate the challenges utilities are facing to manage extensive networks of infrastructure to deliver a consistent and high level of service. For buried infrastructure such as water systems, studies suggest that preventative interventions can lead to lower maintenance costs and fewer service disruptions (Mazumder et al, 2018; Li et al, 2014). The demonstrated need and benefit of appropriately applied asset management is juxtaposed against the relatively sparse literature that evaluates water systems within an asset management construct. Since 2020, just 37 papers specifically reference asset management in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Of those, only a few specifically look to develop strategies for improved asset management. Therefore, we highlight four key research areas that represent opportunities for advancement of asset management research for water systems. First, advances in condition assessment and forecasting are needed to better estimate asset deterioration using diverse datasets. Second, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) hold promise for predictive maintenance and investment prioritization, though questions of generalizability and model transparency remain. Third, applying a value of information framework can guide utilities in making cost-effective sensor deployment and data collection decisions, to direct monitoring strategies towards data-informed asset management decisions. Finally, integrated infrastructure management is critical, requiring coordinated planning with other infrastructure systems and stakeholder engagement to reduce costs and enhance service delivery.
Chini, Christopher M.↗
A space systems perspective of graphics simulation integration
Creation of an interactive display environment can expose issues in system design and operation not apparent from nongraphics development approaches. Large amounts of information can be presented in a short period of time. Processes can be simulated and observed before committing resources. In addition, changes in the economics of computing have enabled broader graphics usage beyond traditional engineering and design into integrated telerobotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications. The highly integrated nature of space operations often tend to rely upon visually intensive man-machine communication to ensure success. Graphics simulation activities at the Mission Planning and Analysis Division (MPAD) of NASA's Johnson Space Center are focusing on the evaluation of a wide variety of graphical analysis within the context of present and future space operations. Several telerobotics and AI applications studies utilizing graphical simulation are described. The presentation includes portions of videotape illustrating technology developments involving: (1) coordinated manned maneuvering unit and remote manipulator system operations, (2) a helmet mounted display system, and (3) an automated rendezous application utilizing expert system and voice input/output technology.
Brown, R.↗
Comparative Study of Aerosol and Cloud Detected by CALIPSO and OMI
The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura Satellite detects the presence of desert dust and smoke particles (also known as aerosols) in terms of a parameter known as the UV Aerosol Index (UV AI). The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission measures the vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds. Aerosols and clouds play important roles in the atmosphere and climate system. Accurately detecting their presence, altitude, and properties using satellite radiance measurements is a very important task. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the CALIPSO Version 2 Vertical Feature Mask (VFM) product with the (OMI) UV Aerosol Index (UV AI) and reflectivity datasets for a full year of 2007. The comparison is done at regional and global scales. Based on CALIPSO arid OMI observations, the vertical and horizontal extent of clouds and aerosols are determined and the effects of aerosol type selection, load, cloud fraction on aerosol identification are discussed. It was found that the spatial-temporal correlation found between CALIPSO and OMI observations, is strongly dependent on aerosol types and cloud contamination. CALIPSO is more sensitivity to cloud and often misidentifies desert dust aerosols as cloud, while some small scale aerosol layers as well as some pollution aerosols are unidentified by OMI UV AI. Large differences in aerosol distribution patterns between CALIPSO and OMI are observed, especially for the smoke and pollution aerosol dominated areas. In addition, the results found a significant correlation between CALIPSO lidar 1064 nm backscatter and the OMI UV AI over the study regions.
Chen, Zhong↗
Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations
Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features
Watson, Leela R.↗
Emulation of Synaptic Plasticity in WO 3 ‐Based Ion‐Gated Transistors
Neuromorphic systems, inspired by the human brain, promise significant advancements in computational efficiency and power consumption by integrating processing and memory functions, thereby addressing the von Neumann bottleneck. This paper explores the synaptic plasticity of a WO3-based ion-gated transistor (IGT) in [EMIM][TFSI] and a 0.1 mol L −1 LiTFSI in [EMIM][TFSI] for neuromorphic computing applications. Cyclic voltammetry (CV), transistor characteristics, and atomic force microscopy (AFM) force–distance (FD) profiling analyses reveal that Li + brings about ion intercalation, together with higher mobility and conductance, and slower response time (τ). WO 3 IGTs exhibit spike amplitude-dependent plasticity (SADP), spike number-dependent plasticity (SNDP), spike duration-dependent plasticity (SDDP), frequency-dependent plasticity (FDP), and paired-pulse facilitation (PPF), which are all crucial for mimicking biological synaptic functions and understanding how to achieve different types of plasticity in the same IGT. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate ionic medium to optimize the performance of synaptic transistors, enabling the development of neuromorphic systems capable of adaptive learning and real-time processing, which are essential for applications in artificial intelligence (AI).
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients
Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Real-Time Adaptive Machine Learning Platform
As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Dauntless.io, Inc. extended its existing ultrafast (0.00001 – 0.001 second) real-time, adaptive machine learning platform for modeling & control of complex, high-value physical systems. Objectives included ability to scale ubiquitously & remain differentiated on a 5+ year horizon in the highly competitive, AI / machine learning market — a rapidly growing market that (overall) is estimated to be worth $191 B by 2024 at a CAGR of 37%.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Probabilistic Machine Learning and Data Assimilation
This white paper responds to Focal Area 1. The associated portfolio of research activities is well-suited to DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise, which creates an opportunity to use manifold-finding probabilistic AI methods to create more powerful data assimilation techniques that increase the fidelity and forecasting skill of Earth System Prediction.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Screening of high temperature adhesives for large area bonding
High temperature-resistant adhesive systems were screened for processability, mechanical and physical properties, operational capability at 589 K (600 F), and the ability to produce large area bonds of high quality in fabricating Space Shuttle components. The adhesives consisted primarily of polyimide systems, including FM34B-18, NR-150B2 (DuPont), PMR-15, LARC-13, LARC-160, Thermid 600, and AI-1130L (AMOCA). The processing studies included preparation of polyimide resins, fabrication of film adhesives, development of lay-up and cure procedures, fabrication of honeycomb sandwich panels, and fabrication of mid-plane bonded panels in joints up to 30.5 cm (12 in.) wide. The screening program included tests for tack and drape properties, reticulation and filleting characteristics, ability to produce void-free or low porosity bonds in mid-plane bonded panels, out-time stability, lap shear strength, climbing drum peel strength, and glass transition temperature (Tg). This paper describes the processing methods developed and the test results.
Stenersen, A. A.↗
Radiometric calibration of the airborne imaging spectrometer
Several laboratory calibration tests were developed for the Airborne Imaging Spectrometer (AIS). The goals of these tests are to adjust the physical alignment of the detector within the optical system and set the spectral endpoints, and produce a calibration file of multipliers which equalizes the relative responses of each of the detector elements in the entire two-dimensional array. Tests are also performed as part of an ongoing effort to provide absolute radiometric calibration. The tests are described and the merits and limitations of each are discussed.
Tucker, D.↗
Cooperative analysis expert situation assessment research
For the past few decades, Rome Air Development Center (RADC) has been conducting research in Artificial Intelligence (AI). When the recent advances in hardware technology made many AI techniques practical, the Intelligence and Reconnaissance Directorate of RADC initiated an applications program entitled Knowledge Based Intelligence Systems (KBIS). The goal of the program is the development of a generic Intelligent Analyst System, an open machine with the framework for intelligence analysis, natural language processing, and man-machine interface techniques, needing only the specific problem domain knowledge to be operationally useful. The development of KBIS is described.
Mccown, Michael G.↗
Architecting Safer Autonomous Aviation Systems
The aviation literature gives relatively little guidance to practitioners about the specifics of architecting systems for safety, particularly the impact of architecture on allocating safety requirements, or the relative ease of system assurance resulting from system or subsystem level architectural choices. As an exemplar, this paper considers common architectural patterns used within traditional aviation systems and explores their safety and safety assurance implications when applied in the context of integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) based functionality. Considering safety as an architectural property, we discuss both the allocation of safety requirements and the architectural trade-offs involved early in the design lifecycle. This approach could be extended to other assured properties, similar to safety, such as security. We conclude with a discussion of the safety considerations that emerge in the context of candidate architectural patterns that have been proposed in the recent literature for enabling autonomy capabilities by integrating AI and ML. A recommendation is made for the generation of a property-driven architectural pattern catalogue.
Architecture patterns↗
Architecting Safer Autonomous Aviation Systems
The aviation literature gives relatively little guidance to practitioners about the specifics of architecting systems for safety, particularly the impact of architecture on allocating safety requirements, or the relative ease of system assurance resulting from system or subsystem level architectural choices. As an exemplar, this paper considers common architectural patterns used within traditional aviation systems and explores their safety and safety assurance implications when applied in the context of integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) based functionality. Considering safety as an architectural property, we discuss both the allocation of safety requirements and the architectural trade-offs involved early in the design lifecycle. This approach could be extended to other assured properties, similar to safety, such as security. We conclude with a discussion of the safety considerations that emerge in the context of candidate architectural patterns that have been proposed in the recent literature for enabling autonomy capabilities by integrating AI and ML. A recommendation is made for the generation of a property-driven architectural pattern catalogue.
Architecture patterns↗
ML/AI Applications to the Atmosphere Science Data and Simulations (Demonstration and Vision)
Artificial Intelligence has been recognized as one of the most powerful tools for scientific research. It has a wide range of applications in atmospheric science and plays a significant role in advancing our understanding of the Earth-Atmosphere system, as well as improving our ability to monitor, predict, and respond to atmospheric observations and simulations. Different AI architectures can help us handle various problems according to our research goals. In this presentation, we will introduce several use cases and models for applying computer vision to active remote sensing data from CALIOP, analyzing cloud dynamical relationships for climate model parameterizations, and building surrogate models for lidar simulations. The presentation will highlight the advantages that AI offers compared to traditional analytical methods. By assembling pieces of the multidimensional atmospheric science puzzle, we can integrate our knowledge from observations to simulations.
Shan Zeng↗
Design of detectors at the electron ion collider with artificial intelligence
Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) for design is a relatively new but active area of research across many disciplines. Surprisingly when it comes to designing detectors with AI this is an area at its infancy. The electron ion collider is the ultimate machine to study the strong force. The EIC is a large-scale experiment with an integrated detector that extends for about ±35 meters to include the central, far-forward, and far-backward regions. The design of the central detector is made by multiple sub-detectors, each in principle characterized by a multidimensional design space and multiple design criteria also called objectives. Simulations with Geant4 are typically compute intensive, and the optimization of the detector design may include non-differentiable terms as well as noisy objectives. In this context, AI can offer state of the art solutions to solve complex combinatorial problems in an efficient way. In particular, one of the proto-collaborations, ECCE, has explored during the detector proposal the possibility of using multi-objective optimization to design the tracking system of the EIC detector. This document provides an overview of these techniques and recent progress made during the EIC detector proposal. Future high energy nuclear physics experiments can leverage AI-based strategies to design more efficient detectors by optimizing their performance driven by physics criteria and minimizing costs for their realization.
Instruments & Instrumentation↗
An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts
Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗