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At least 937 records · Page 52

Dynamic modeling, property investigation, and adaptive controller design of serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliance

Research results on general serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliances are presented. Two compliant manipulator modeling approaches, distributed and lumped parameter models, are used in this study. System dynamic equations for both compliant models are derived by using the first and second order influence coefficients. Also, the properties of compliant manipulator system dynamics are investigated. One of the properties, which is defined as inaccessibility of vibratory modes, is shown to display a distinct character associated with compliant manipulators. This property indicates the impact of robot geometry on the control of structural oscillations. Example studies are provided to illustrate the physical interpretation of inaccessibility of vibratory modes. Two types of controllers are designed for compliant manipulators modeled by either lumped or distributed parameter techniques. In order to maintain the generality of the results, neither linearization is introduced. Example simulations are given to demonstrate the controller performance. The second type controller is also built for general serial robot arms and is adaptive in nature which can estimate uncertain payload parameters on-line and simultaneously maintain trajectory tracking properties. The relation between manipulator motion tracking capability and convergence of parameter estimation properties is discussed through example case studies. The effect of control input update delays on adaptive controller performance is also studied.

Tesar, Delbert↗

Review of the Theoretical and Experimental Status of Dark Matter Identification with Cosmic-Ray Antideuterons

Recent years have seen increased theoretical and experimental effort towards the first-ever detection of cosmic-ray antideuterons, in particular as an indirect signature of dark matter annihilation or decay. In contrast to indirect dark matter searches using positrons, antiprotons, or gamma-rays, which suffer from relatively high and uncertain astrophysical backgrounds, searches with antideuterons benefit from very suppressed conventional backgrounds, offering a potential breakthrough in unexplored phase space for dark matter. This article is based on the first dedicated cosmic-ray antideuteron workshop, which was held at UCLA in June 2014. It reviews broad classes of dark matter candidates that result in detectable cosmic-ray antideuteron fluxes, as well as the status and prospects of current experimental searches. The coalescence model of antideuteron production and the influence of antideuteron measurements at particle colliders are discussed. This is followed by a review of the modeling of antideuteron propagation through the magnetic fields, plasma currents, and molecular material of our Galaxy, the solar system, the Earth's geomagnetic field, and the atmosphere. Finally, the three ongoing or planned experiments that are sensitive to cosmic-ray antideuterons, BESS, AMS-02, and GAPS, are detailed. As cosmic-ray antideuteron detection is a rare event search, multiple experiments with orthogonal techniques and backgrounds are essential. Therefore, the combination of AMS-02 and GAPS antideuteron searches is highly desirable. Many theoretical and experimental groups have contributed to these studies over the last decade, this review aims to provide the first coherent discussion of the relevant dark matter theories that antideuterons probe, the challenges to predictions and interpretations of antideuteron signals, and the experimental efforts toward cosmic antideuteron detection.

Antideuteron Cosmic ray Dark matter↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Figures of Merit for Control Verification

This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating a controller's ability to satisfy a set of closed-loop specifications when the plant has an arbitrary functional dependency on uncertain parameters. Control verification metrics applicable to deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models are proposed. These metrics, which result from sizing the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the specifications are satisfied, enable systematic assessment of competing control alternatives regardless of the methods used to derive them. A particularly attractive feature of the tools derived is that their efficiency and accuracy do not depend on the robustness of the controller. This is in sharp contrast to Monte Carlo based methods where the number of simulations required to accurately approximate the failure probability grows exponentially with its closeness to zero. This framework allows for the integration of complex, high-fidelity simulations of the integrated system and only requires standard optimization algorithms for its implementation.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Modeling Space Radiation Induced Bone Changes in Rat Femurs through Finite Element Analysis

As the duration of manned missions outside of the Earth’s protective shielding increase, astronauts are at risk for exposure to space radiation. Various organ systems may be damaged due to exposure. This study investigates the bonestrength changes using finite element modeling of Long Evans rats (n=85) subjected to graded, head-only proton (0, 10, 25, and 100 cGy, 150 MeV/n) and 28silicon (0, 10, 25, and 50 cGy, 300 MeV/n) radiation. The strength of the femoral neck will be examined due its clinical relevance to hip fractures. It has been shown in previous studies that bone mineral density was not reduced at the site of fracture. These findings question whether measurements of bone mineral density may be used to assess risk of hip fracture. The mechanisms leading to the irregular relationship between bone density and strength are still uncertain within literature and investigated to greater extent in clinical applications. Finite element analysis within this study simulated physiological loading of the femoral neck. No significant changes in femoral neck strength were found across doses of proton or 28silicon head-only radiation. Future work includes performing mechanical testing of the bone samples. Moving from mouse to larger animal models may also provide the increased lifespan for assessing the long-term outcomes of radiation exposure.

Dale Johnson↗

Evaluation of electrostatic charge effects on the data processing system and the orbiter communication and tracking receivers

An analysis of radiated interference test results obtained from frictionally charged Orbiter TPS tile was presented. The tests included the measurement of noise pick-up by Orbiter S-band, L-band, C-band, and Ku-band antennas located beneath the tiles in a manner simulating their installation on Orbiter. In addition, the radiated field characteristics resulting from the static discharge was determined. The results are analyzed as to their effect on data bus equipment and on Orbiter Communications and Tracking (C&T) receivers. It was concluded that the radiated interference should have no effect on MDM's. However the CPU, IOP and PMU enclosures require some minor modification to assure immunity from P-static interference. Orbiter antenna tests indicate that the S-band receiver should not be affected by P-static noise. The TACAN and Radar Altimeter performance appears to be adequate but with a small margin. MSBLS performance is uncertain because laboratory instrumentation cannot approach the MSBLS sensitivity.

Lawton, R. M.↗

An Updated Picture of Presolar History from Short-lived Radioactive Isotopes and Inferences on the Birth of the Sun

We examine the origin of the short-lived radionuclides (SLRs; defined as having half-lives between 0.1 and 100 Ma) present in the early solar system (ESS) by investigating how predictions of their abundances in the interstellar medium (ISM) from steady-state equilibrium relate to their ESS values. For this, we take into account the non-negligible time t iso elapsed between the isolation of the presolar molecular cloud and the formation of the ESS, during which the SLRs decayed freely. We also consider the alternative scenario in which the presolar molecular cloud remained partially mixed with the ISM, with a mixing timescale t mix . We find that the ESS abundances of 107 Pd and 182 Hf produced by slow neutron captures (s-process) and of 53 Mn and 60 Fe produced by explosive nucleosynthesis can be consistently explained within these scenarios. Their required tiso is 9–12 Ma and their required tmix is 11–14 Ma (with one potential exception of t mix = 38 Ma), depending on galactic uncertainties, such as the galactic star formation history and efficiency and the star-to-gas mass ratio. Another s -process SLR, 205 Pb, has a more uncertain ESS value and falls within only some of these time values. The same applies to the SLRs produced by the p -process ( 92 Nb and 146 Sm), depending on the latter’s half-life. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the ESS abundances of the rapid neutron-capture isotopes ( 129 I, 244 Pu, and 247 Cm) and of the most short-lived radionuclides ( 26 Al, 36 Cl, and 41 Ca) cannot be explained by assuming steady-state equilibrium in the ISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Developing a roadmap for carbon capture, and storage in Oklahoma by assessing the viability of stacked storage

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) is critical for climate‐stabilizing energy transitions. In CCS, captured CO 2 is sequestered in saline aquifers within sedimentary basins. The CO 2 storage capacity and the rate of injection are functions of the geology of the saline aquifer, which is uncertain. To minimize impacts of this uncertainty, CCS projects could include backup plans, such as co‐locating geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) sites with or near existing CO 2 ‐enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 ‐EOR) operations. These “stacked storage” projects could hedge against uncertainty in the saline formation performance because captured CO 2 could be injected into either location in the event of unexpected events (e.g., the injectivity decreases). Here, we investigate the possibility and ramifications of developing CCS networks in Oklahoma that are amendable to stacked storage. We find that stacked storage is possible in Oklahoma but the counties with the lowest‐cost saline storage resources do not have existing CO 2 ‐EOR operations. At the systems level, we find it is slightly more expensive (e.g., $1/tCO 2 to $5/tCO 2 ) to site GCS in counties with CO 2 ‐EOR projects. This increased expense is largely due to increased CO 2 transportation costs because hundreds of km of additional pipeline is required to capture CO 2 from the lowest‐cost sources. Overall, our results suggest that it is optimal to build more pipelines and avoid injecting CO 2 in some of the lowest‐cost saline storage resources, to enable capturing CO 2 from the least‐cost sources. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sequential Bayesian Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Dynamic Load Models

In this paper we focus on the parameter estimation of dynamic load models with stochastic terms-in particular, load models where protection settings are uncertain, such as in aggregated air conditioning units. We show how the uncertainty in the aggregated protection characteristics can be formulated as a stochastic differential equation with process noise. We cast the parameter inversion within a Bayesian parameter estimation framework, and we present methods to include process noise. We demonstrate the benefits of considering stochasticity in the parameter estimation and the risks of ignoring it.

Bayesian Statistics↗

A high temperature cell for investigating interfacial structure on the molecular scale in molten salt/alloy systems

In this work, we describe the design and development of an in situ neutron reflectometry cell for high temperature investigations of structural changes occurring at the interface between inorganic salts, in their molten state up to 800 °C, and corrosion resistant alloys or other surfaces. In the cell, a molten salt is confined by an annular ring of single crystal sapphire constrained between the sample substrate and a sapphire plate using two gold O-rings, enclosing a liquid salt volume of 20 ml, along with a dynamic cell volume to accommodate expansion of the liquid with heating. Further, as a test case for the cell, we report on an in situ neutron reflectometry measurement of the interface between a eutectic salt mixture of MgCl 2 –KCl (32:68 molar ratio) and a single crystal sapphire substrate at 450 °C, resulting in the formation of a 60 Å layer having a scattering length density of 1.72 × 10 –6 Å –2 . While the origin of this layer is uncertain, it is likely to have resulted from the salt reacting with an existing impurity layer on the sapphire substrate.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

What Machine Learning Can and Cannot Do for Inertial Confinement Fusion

Machine learning methodologies have played remarkable roles in solving complex systems with large data, well-defined input–output pairs, and clearly definable goals and metrics. The methodologies are effective in image analysis, classification, and systems without long chains of logic. Recently, machine-learning methodologies have been widely applied to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsules and the design optimization of OMEGA (Omega Laser Facility) capsule implosion and NIF (National Ignition Facility) ignition capsules, leading to significant progress. As machine learning is being increasingly applied, concerns arise regarding its capabilities and limitations in the context of ICF. ICF is a complicated physical system that relies on physics knowledge and human judgment to guide machine learning. Additionally, the experimental database for ICF ignition is not large enough to provide credible training data. Most researchers in the field of ICF use simulations, or a mix of simulations and experimental results, instead of real data to train machine learning models and related tools. They then use the trained learning model to predict future events. This methodology can be successful, subject to a careful choice of data and simulations. However, because of the extreme sensitivity of the neutron yield to the input implosion parameters, physics-guided machine learning for ICF is extremely important and necessary, especially when the database is small, the uncertain-domain knowledge is large, and the physical capabilities of the learning models are still being developed. In this work, we identify problems in ICF that are suitable for machine learning and circumstances where machine learning is less likely to be successful. This study investigates the applications of machine learning and highlights fundamental research challenges and directions associated with machine learning in ICF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A determination of the radio-planetary frame tie and the DSN tracking station locations

The orientation of the reference frame of radio source catalogs relative to that of planetary ephemerides is uncertain by 30 mas (150 nrad). At this level of uncertainty this orientation offset, or 'frame tie', can be a major systematic error source for interplanetary spacecraft orbit determination. This work presents a method of determining the radio-planetary frame tie from a comparison of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) station coordinate and earth orientation parameter estimates. Preliminary results are presented which indicate that accuracies of 5 mas or better may be achieved with this method. An important by-product of this method of frame tie determination is a set of Deep Space Network (DSN) station locations with 10 cm per component accuracy. This station set is in a geocentric coordinate system with known orientation relative to the radio and planetary frames.

Finger, Mark H.↗

Ar-39-Ar-40 ages of four ureilites

Ureilites Novo Urei, Havero, and Kenna show strong evidence of one or more Ar-40 degassing events in the time period of 3.3-4.1 Ga ago. These ages may be compared to current interpretations of ureilite chronology. These include the suggestion of metasomatic activity on the parent body 3.7 Ga ago that reset some Sm-Nd ages and the suggestion that ureilites have experienced terrestrial contamination of several trace elements (including Pb and LREE), which makes suspect ages younger than approximately 4.5 Ga. Because the K-Ar chronometer can be sensitive to metamorphic events, we made Ar-39-Ar-40 determinations on bulk samples (0.12-0.14 g each) of four ureilites. The Ar-39-Ar-40 age spectra and K/Ca ratios as a function of cumulative Ar release from stepwise temperature extractions for the four ureilites analyzed are shown. Because Ar-39-Ar-40 ages shown by low and high temperature extractions may be suspect, we examined the intermediate temperature extractions. Although interpretation of these spectra is obviously uncertain, we believe that the most recent times of Ar degassing can be roughly inferred. These times are approximately 3.3 Ga for Havero, 3.3-3.7 Ga for Novo Urei, and approximately 4.1 Ga for Kenna, for which Ar degassing may not have been complete. The indication of Ar-39-Ar-40 degassing ages of 3.3-4.1 Ga for three ureilites that also contain an enhanced LREE component and (excepting Havero) produce a 3.74 Ga Sm-Nd age, suggests that both chronometers may have responded to the same parent body event. On the other hand, it is also possible that the Ar data reflect one or more separate events that did not strongly affect the Sm-Nd system, a situation that commonly occurs in eucrites. Thus the existence of reset Ar ages does not require similarly reset Sm-Nd ages.

Bogard, D. D.↗

Interplay of River and Tidal Forcings Promotes Loops in Coastal Channel Networks

We report the dense populations that inhabit global coastlines have an uncertain future due to increased flooding, storms, and human modification. The channel networks of deltas and marshes that plumb these coastlines present diverse architectures, including well-studied dendritic topologies. However, the quasi-stable loops that exist in nearly all coastal networks have not yet been explained. We present a model for self-organizing networks inspired by vascular biophysics to show that loops emerge when the relative forcings between rivers and tides are comparable, resulting in interplay between hydrodynamic forcings at short time scales relative to network evolution. Using field data and satellite imaging, we confirm this control on 21 field networks. Our comparison provides compelling evidence that hydrodynamic fluctuations are capable of stabilizing loops in geophysical systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vibrational processing of a dynamic structural flight system: A multichannel spectral estimation approach

Dynamic testing of large flight vehicles (rockets) is not only complex, but also can be very costly. These flights are infrequent and can lead to disastrous effects if something were to fail during the flight. The development of sensors coupled to internal components offers a great challenge in reducing their size, yet still maintaining their precision. Sounding rockets provide both a viable and convenient alternative to the more costly vehicular flights. Some of the major objectives are to test various types of sensors for monitoring components of high interest as well as investigating real-time processing techniques. Signal processing presents an extreme challenge in this noisy multichannel environment. The estimation and tracking of modal frequencies from vibrating structures is an important set of features that can provide information about the components under test; therefore, high resolution multichannel spectral processing is required. Finally, the application of both single channel and multichannel techniques capable of producing reliable modal frequency estimates of a vibrating structure from uncertain accelerometer measurements is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interaction Between the Broad-Lined Type Ic Supernova 2012ap and Carriers of Diffuse Interstellar Bands

The diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) are absorption features observed in optical and near-infrared spectra that are thought to be associated with carbon-rich polyatomic molecules in interstellar gas. However, because the central wavelengths of these bands do not correspond with electronic transitions of any known atomic or molecular species, their nature has remained uncertain since their discovery almost a century ago. Here we report on unusually strong DIBs in optical spectra of the broad- lined Type Ic supernova SN2012ap that exhibit changes in equivalent width over short (. 30 days) timescales. The 4428 A and 6283 A DIB features get weaker with time, whereas the 5780 A feature shows a marginal increase. These nonuniform changes suggest that the supernova is interacting with a nearby source of the DIBs and that the DIB carriers possess high ionization potentials, such as small cations or charged fullerenes. We conclude that moderate-resolution spectra of supernovae with DIB absorptions obtained within weeks of outburst could reveal unique information about the mass-loss environment of their progenitor systems and provide new constraints on the properties of DIB carriers.

broad↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗