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At least 937 records · Page 52

Scale up, Field testing, and Optimization of Nontoxic, Durable, Economical Coatings for Control of Biofouling and Corrosion (Abstract Only)

The objective of this project is the technical maturation and demonstration of a durable, economical, and nontoxic coating, Superhydrophobic Lubricant Infused Composite (SLIC), that will prevent fouling organisms from growing on marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) structures and prevent invasive mussels from growing on hydropower structures. SLIC technology was developed and patented by PNNL. It combines multiple antifouling mechanisms to provide excellent antifouling performance, durability, and low hydrodynamic drag without using toxic materials. Advanced proof-of-concept testing and demonstrations completed during a Phase 1 TCF project attracted industry interest and partnerships for this Phase 2 effort focused on maturation of a commercial product. Specific tasks and tests will shift the development emphasis to optimizing formulations, validating antifouling performance to address specific application needs, explore compatibility with other paint systems, develop a product with useful shelf life (in can), and determine curing times and effective applications methodology. Phase 2 efforts will focus upon technology transfer and commercialization of the technology with the industrial team. Industrial partners now include a coatings development specialist (Lorama), hydrophobic material manufacturer and paint developer (Dry Surface Technologies), nontoxic biodegradable lubricants manufacturer (BioBlend), and aquatic applications specialists (Prometheus Innovations, River Connectivity Systems). Engagement with the MHK device developers, the PNNL Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) test site in Sequim WA, Bureau of Reclamation, and Taylor Shellfish throughout the project will provide topical expertise and field test sites that will deliver crucial real-world performance data. Through this Phase 2 effort, SLIC will transition from a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 5 to TRL 6 and long-term performance data will be acquired through demonstrations. The field test data will allow optimization of SLIC formulation to enhance performance (e.g., durability) and packaging, which are key de-risking activities for technology transfer and ultimately to the production of a viable commercial product.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Open-Source Framework for Data Storage and Visualization of Real-Time Experiments

Digital real time simulators (DRTS) are increasingly being used for the evaluation of power hardware and controller hardware in the laboratory prior to field deployment. Although DRTS are capable of simulating large models in real-time, it is challenging to visualize the results of large models without overdrawing or confounding the viewer. This paper provides an open-source framework for users to visualize their DRTS-based hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) experimental results in real-time. This proposed framework can be used by experimental test beds that can push data through an internet protocol based network. The proposed framework includes three main components. First, it includes the DRTS that generates and pushes the data to a relay. Second, it includes an application that serves multiple purposes, from data storage, testing, and translation of the data to a publisher/subscriber protocol. Finally, it includes libraries and applications that can be used to visualize the data by subscribing to the relay. This framework is available in open source, and it is tested using the HIL platform developed for testing advanced distribution management systems.

advanced distribution management systems↗

Towards AI Based Data Classification for Decision Making During Testing

During the development of high-consequence items, test systems should be capable of differentiating between test failures resulting from narrowly missing requirements versus those indicating potentially catastrophic faults. In many instances, classifying the data corresponds to simply identifying whether measured waveforms have approximately the anticipated shape. Cast in this light, the problem reduces to converting raw data into a form optimal for use with neural network classifiers. This manuscript investigates different means of representing raw data for image classification. Raw data plots and Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) spectrograms are classified by both custom built, small-scale, Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) and open-source, multi-million parameter, pre-trained deep CNNs. In the case of time varying frequency content, the STFTs provide images with greater detail and can be accurately classified with simpler networks. This requires less memory and runs faster than classifying the raw data using the more sophisticated options—making STFTs optimal for applications with memory constraints. STFTs are not a panacea. In some cases the time-domain signal contains useful information that should not be discarded. Rather than using raw data or STFTs, the images can be constructed from both by using red and green channels of an RGB image to visualize the real and imaginary components of the transform, with the raw data occupying the blue channel.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Foam Degradation Model during Thermal Hypothetical Accident Conditions

Current practice in Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP) thermal analysis for hypothetical accident conditions (HAC) of packages is to not explicitly model the consequence to the foam impact limiting material, but instead to make conservative estimates of those consequences and begin calculations from that point. This approach is typically used for the foam regression distance, which is the thickness of the degraded foam layer after the 30-minute fire event. Estimates for regression distance can come directly from package burn test results or from correlations based on one-dimensional testing by the foam manufacturer. In either case, this is a subjective process, and although it can be used to produce a conservative result, it is a significant approximation in the analysis. This paper describes testing and refinement of a simplified foam regression model. Comparisons are made against available data from laboratory experiments. Model refinements were tested until satisfactory agreement was achieved. The final modeling approach was then compared with post-test inspection results from HAC burn test data. A new model with an effective thermal conductivity based on foam to char density variation was shown successful in representing laboratory-scale foam thermal degradation experiments and full-scale burn tests of a current package. This model offers a technically defensible and predictive approach for modeling thermal degradation of rigid polyurethane insulation in transport packages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Report on the recovery of legacy 1997-1998 Depth-of-Burial / Tunnel-and-Hole-Closure explosion data from the Kazakhstan former Soviet nuclear test site, Semipalatinsk.

In 1996, negotiations between the National Nuclear Center of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NNC), the U.S. Defense Special Weapons Administration (DSWA) and the U.S. Department of Energy led to an agreement for a joint series of experiments at the former Soviet nuclear test site Semipalatinsk (STS). These experiments had a dual purpose: to close holes and tunnels originally created for the purpose of testing nuclear weapons, and to characterize explosive sources at a former nuclear test site. This report covers the recovery of legacy data from the experiments conduct in 1997 and 1998. Two teams collected data. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), in collaboration with the NNC, collected the near-source (local) data out to approximately 20 km. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), with funding from Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLNL), also in collaboration with NNC, collected regional data, 200 – 1000 km distant, leveraging the KZ regional seismic network that LDEO had recently installed in collaboration with NNC. The two teams also worked together to some extent, regarding instrumentation and planning. This report primarily addresses the near-source data collected by the LANL/NNC team.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Respirator Cartridge Performance on Mixed Vapors from Hanford Tank Headspaces and Exhausters - 20427

Between 2016 and 2018, the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor - Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) - conducted a series of tests of air-purifying respirator (APR) chemical cartridges commonly used at Hanford tank farms to determine the period of time for which the cartridges would provide adequate performance when used in APRs and powered-air-purifying respirators (PAPRs) to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of vapors exiting tank headspaces. Although cartridge manufacturers provide service life estimating tools for individual chemical compounds, the projected performance of these cartridges on complex vapor mixtures is not available, and the adequacy of APRs for tank farm applications represents an important workforce concern. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing cartridge service life. The primary function of the WRPS Cartridge Test Program was to obtain objective data to determine service lives for the APR and PAPR cartridges used at Hanford tank farms. WRPS contracted with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to analyze the test data and offer an independent analysis of and recommendations based on respirator cartridge performance. A total of 28 APR and 10 PAPR cartridge tests were conducted between 2016 and 2018 on 12 different tank headspaces and tank farm exhauster slipstreams. Two APR cartridges from SCOTT (now 3M) and two PAPR cartridges from MSA Safety, Inc. and 3M were evaluated using a cartridge testing system specifically designed to measure and monitor test conditions and sample cartridge inlet and outlet vapor streams for important chemical compounds. Testing focused on analysis of approximately 61 tank vapor chemicals of potential concern (COPCs) that have been previously detected in tank vapors at levels above 10% of their occupational exposure limits (OELs). Each test was conducted over 16 hours of run time. Evidence of chemical breakthrough was assessed by comparing inlet and outlet COPC concentrations over the duration of each test. The breakthrough threshold was normally defined as exceeding 10% of the compounds OEL at the cartridge outlet. Ammonia breakthrough was observed in a majority of the cartridge tests and occurred earlier than breakthrough of any other chemical compound. Several other COPCs did exhibit breakthrough behavior, including mercury, 1,3-butadiene, furan, 2,5 dihydrofuran, and N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), but only in a very limited number of cartridge tests and only after ammonia breakthrough had occurred. In addition, tests results suggest that breakthrough of some of these COPCs may have been affected by competition with and breakthrough of other non-COPC organics, such as ethanol and acetone, with substantially lower toxicological hazard. Comparison of cartridge manufacturers' service life estimates with the experimentally derived breakthrough times indicates that manufacturers' estimates are generally conservative, even in the presence of the complex mixed vapor streams experienced in these tests. With consideration of appropriate safety margins, these results provide valuable insights on cartridge performance to inform industrial hygiene professionals in establishing appropriate cartridge change-out schedules for APR and PAPR use in the Hanford tank farms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Photonuclear Physics in SCALE

Radiation shielding modeling involves a wide range of applications, such as power reactors, critical experiments, portable sources, linear accelerators, and fusion systems. Particle energy ranges vary from thermal energies to fast energy spectra. MAVRIC, as the radiation shielding sequence of the SCALE code system [1] developed and maintained by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is capable of modeling both neutron and photon interactions in matter and is widely used by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, the National Nuclear Security Administration, and radiation shielding practitioners all around the world. Although most applications don’t involve highly energetic photons that can cause photonuclear reactions and create coupled chains of high energy, ionized electrons and bremsstrahlung radiation within a material medium, when present, these reactions can have a significant impact upon the downstream particle fluxes from incident photons above 20 MeV. For example, linear accelerators used for medical isotope production are examples of applications in which high-energetic photons are generated and used for driving or controlling other components of a complex facility. Radiation shielding analyses of such a facility would require accounting for any and all significant sources of radiation. Unfortunately, MAVRIC included no data and methods to model either photonuclear reactions or the bremsstrahlung photons until this work, which enabled accounting for both. Photonuclear reaction cross sections were imported from the Evaluated Nuclear Data File libraries, and corresponding methods were implemented in the SCALE code system; see Section 2 for how the nuclear data are imported and used. Bremsstrahlung photons were modeled by assuming thick-target approximation whereby all generated electrons and positrons due to photon interactions are assumed to be absorbed within the same material in which they were born, yielding a quick particle transport simulation method by using fast lookup tables for generating subsequent gammas; see Section 4 for details. A suite of verification models was used to test implemented methods and associated data. Tests yielded satisfactory results for the new features. Enhancements will be released as part of the next major SCALE release (v7.0), which is anticipated to be deployed in 2025, with beta releases available in the interim.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Predicting wind-driven spatial deposition through simulated color images using deep autoencoders

Abstract For centuries, scientists have observed nature to understand the laws that govern the physical world. The traditional process of turning observations into physical understanding is slow. Imperfect models are constructed and tested to explain relationships in data. Powerful new algorithms can enable computers to learn physics by observing images and videos. Inspired by this idea, instead of training machine learning models using physical quantities, we used images, that is, pixel information. For this work, and as a proof of concept, the physics of interest are wind-driven spatial patterns. These phenomena include features in Aeolian dunes and volcanic ash deposition, wildfire smoke, and air pollution plumes. We use computer model simulations of spatial deposition patterns to approximate images from a hypothetical imaging device whose outputs are red, green, and blue (RGB) color images with channel values ranging from 0 to 255. In this paper, we explore deep convolutional neural network-based autoencoders to exploit relationships in wind-driven spatial patterns, which commonly occur in geosciences, and reduce their dimensionality. Reducing the data dimension size with an encoder enables training deep, fully connected neural network models linking geographic and meteorological scalar input quantities to the encoded space. Once this is achieved, full spatial patterns are reconstructed using the decoder. We demonstrate this approach on images of spatial deposition from a pollution source, where the encoder compresses the dimensionality to 0.02% of the original size, and the full predictive model performance on test data achieves a normalized root mean squared error of 8%, a figure of merit in space of 94% and a precision-recall area under the curve of 0.93.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Digitalization, Management and Synthesis of Thermal Hydraulic Legacy Data Using Dynamical System Scaling

A unique attribute of the nuclear industry is the extent by which designers, developers, operators, and regulators pay attention to demonstrating the safety case. The safety case for nuclear systems is a written, traceable expression of safety, demonstrating the system’s protective measures against uncontrolled radiological releases. The nuclear installation resiliency or safety takes overriding priority over function and performance. The preparation of the safety case heavily relies on extensive experimental campaigns that challenge the target design under a spectrum of postulated accident scenarios. For safety reasons, these experiments are typically conducted in sub-scale test apparatuses intended to reproduce the postulated accident scenarios and event sequences realistically but subject to proven similarity criteria, often referred to as scaling analyses. Since the dawn of the nuclear industry, significant resources have been committed to the construction and operation of such test facilities and a massive amount of data has been generated. Such test data have been and are still used to validate the fundamental assumptions of nuclear power plant phenomena. As we move into the digital world, capturing this multi-decades worth of information in a transparent, easily accessible, and usable manner for the public and industry stakeholders is of paramount importance. Over the last few years FPoliSolutions has been actively developing an enterprise digital data ontology platform (FPoliDON) intended to do just that. The concept was introduced in a paper at the previous NURETH edition and has been significantly enhanced since. With the vision of helping designers use the data to assess their safety case evaluation models, the platform was designed not only to ontologically organize the experimental data, but also to guide the user in the complex analytics associated with the interpretation and use of such test results. A new feature which has been recently added is the ability for the user to access a library of sophisticated mathematical procedures for performing scaling analyses. For this purpose, the Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) procedure invented by Dr. Jose’ Reyes was formulated as one of the services in the digital platform. These methods have been demonstrated to provide an excelled mathematical apparatus to identify similarity criteria or quantify distortions between measured data and the target prototypical conditions. Moreover, DSS can provide a level of synthesis across SETs and IETs which has the promise to yield efficiency in the evaluation code assessment activities. This is often a daunting and expensive task to set up evaluation models that support the safety case of current and future nuclear power plants.

Reyes, Jose↗

Monitoring Methods for Early Detection of Inadvertent Fission Product Release at the Advanced Test Reactor

Isotope effluent data obtained during three instances of experiment failures at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) are analyzed to provide an overview of the methods used to detect initial signs of unintended fission product release. The data is contextualized with the operational experience, including means of identification and subsequent mitigation strategies, gained during these events. General trends as well as variations in isotopic behavior between the three failures are explored. Background on the Real Time Monitor, a High Purity Germanium detector, and other fission product monitoring systems utilized at the Advanced Test Reactor is also provided. The presented analysis was used to establish administrative action levels which are currently utilized by ATR for early detection of experiment fission product release. Early identification provides time to make programmatic decisions before approaching safety and environmental limits.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

CMB/kSZ and Compton-y Maps from 2500 deg 2 of SPT-SZ and Planck Survey Data

Abstract We present component-separated maps of the primary cosmic microwave background/kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) amplitude and the thermal SZ Compton- y parameter, created using data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the Planck satellite. These maps, which cover the ∼2500 deg 2 of the southern sky imaged by the SPT-SZ survey, represent a significant improvement over previous such products available in this region by virtue of their higher angular resolution ( 1 .′ 25 for our highest-resolution Compton- y maps) and lower noise at small angular scales. In this work we detail the construction of these maps using linear combination techniques, including our method for limiting the correlation of our lowest-noise Compton- y map products with the cosmic infrared background. We perform a range of validation tests on these data products to test our sky modeling and combination algorithms, and we find good performance in all of these tests. Recognizing the potential utility of these data products for a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological analyses, including studies of the gas properties of galaxies, groups, and clusters, we make these products publicly available at http://pole.uchicago.edu/public/data/sptsz_ymap and on the NASA/LAMBDA website.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of proton bunch parameters in the AWAKE experiment

A precise characterization of the incoming proton bunch parameters is required to accurately simulate the self-modulation process in the Advanced Wakefield Experiment (AWAKE). This paper presents an analysis of the parameters of the incoming proton bunches used in the later stages of the AWAKE Run 1 data-taking period. The transverse structure of the bunch is observed at multiple positions along the beamline using scintillating or optical transition radiation screens. The parameters of a model that describes the bunch transverse dimensions and divergence are fitted to represent the observed data using Bayesian inference. Finally, the analysis is tested on simulated data and then applied to the experimental data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A New Capability of E4D For 3D Parallel Joint Inversion of DC Resistivity And Traveltime Data on Unstructured Mesh

A major challenge in interpreting geophysical data is how to derive consistent three-dimensional (3D) earth models of different physical properties from spatially and temporally limited measurements. Joint inversion with cross-gradient constraints is an approach to find such models by imposing structural similarities between different physical parameters. We have developed a parallel distributed-memory joint inversion code for direct-current (DC) resistivity and traveltime data using the cross-gradient constraint on unstructured mesh. The code utilizes existing E4D framework for parallel forward simulation, distributed storage and computation of the Jacobian matrix of forward operator, and parallel execution of matrix-vector multiplication during inversion. Besides, the joint inversion is solved by nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm parallelized for DC resistivity and traveltime data. The joint inversion capability of E4D was tested using synthetic data from cross-borehole DC resistivity and traveltime data. The results indicate that the shape and size of the anomalies from the joint inversion are more reliable than those from separate inversions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rate and temperature independent model calibrations for J2 plasticity and Wilkins failure models for 17-4PH H1150 stainless steel

This memo’s objective is to report a calibration of the J2 plasticity model with the Wilkins ductile failure criterion for 17-4 PH H1150 stainless steel under slow loading at room temperature. The calibration of the hardening function was based on uniaxial tension tests, while that of the failure model included data from tension tests on notched specimens, a butterfly specimen shear test, and a set of interrupted compression tests on shear hat specimens. The procedure was that described in, minus the rate and temperature dependence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program Overview

AGR-3/4 post-irradiation examination and data analysis AGR-5/6/7 PIE and safety testing Supplemental fuel microanalysis and method development Fuel oxidation testing Air/moisture Ingress Experiment (AMIX) system development (deployed in FY23) Single particle testing in FITT Data management and analysis Fuel performance modeling

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Updated ASME design correlations and qualification plan for powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

This report provides an update on the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program effort to qualify Laser-Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) 316H stainless steel for use with the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules. The report summarizes progress in testing and characterizing L-PBF material at elevated temperatures by providing preliminary design data for L-PBF 316H and by comparing the elevated temperature performance of the L-PBF material to wrought and conventional fusion welded 316H. The report then updates the initial AMMT qualification plan for L-PBF 316H, originally developed in 2023, to update the accelerated qualification strategy adopted in that plan to account for the new high temperature test data. The report also explores a few methods for further accelerating the qualification process using machine learning techniques to supplement the more conventional, empirical analysis methods typically used by ASME to correlate and extrapolate time-dependent material test data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Performance Testing of a Moving-Bed Gasifier Using Coal, Biomass, and Waste Plastic Blends with Washed and Unwashed Legacy Coals and Other Waste Fuels to Generate White Hydrogen

The objective of this effort, primarily funded by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), and led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Hamilton Maurer International (HMI) and Sotacarbo S.p.A. (Sotacarbo), has been to qualify coal, biomass, and plastic waste blends based on performance testing of selected fuel pellet compositions in a pilot-scale updraft moving-bed (UDMB) gasifier. The testing provided relevant data to advance the commercial-scale design of the moving-bed gasifier to be able to successfully use these feedstocks to produce hydrogen. In particular, the effects of waste plastics on feedstock development (i.e., blending and pelletizing) and the resulting products (i.e., syngas compositions, organic condensate production, and ash characteristics) are the focus. The gasifier used for testing is HMI’s moving-bed gasifier, which has been proven capable of gasifying nearly all coal ranks. It has also shown the ability in prior testing work to gasify wood chips (biomass). However, mixtures of these fuels with plastic wastes have not been prepared and gasified together. The three feedstocks were densified and pelletized by California Pellet Mill (CPM) to meet the feedstock size required by Sotacarbo’s 30mm ID UDMB gasifier, under contract to HMI. The technical tasks and results from this two-year research project included: (1) Feed Procurement and Preparation: Nine different tri-fuel pellets were prepared from varying compositions of fresh mined PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and car fluff waste plastics. Tri-fuel pellets were produced by CPM and shipped to Sotacarbo’s test facility in Carbonia, Sardinia, Italy. (2) Test Plan Development: A test plan was created to define the test runs to be performed. The test plan detailed the different UDMB gasification tests to be performed in Sotacarbo’s 12-inch ID pilot scale gasifier, the process monitoring instrumentation used, and the extractive samples recovered for analysis of the total gasification process mass and energy balance. (3) Gasifier Testing: Nine different gasification runs were performed in the pilot-scale gasifier at Sotacarbo using nine different fuel feedstock compositions generated from varying mixtures of PRB coal, biomass, and plastic wastes. The testing generated performance data on gasification reaction efficiency and performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design. This task also included work to refurbish and reassemble the pilot gasifier at Sotacarbo and perform a baseline 100% PRB coal run. (4) Data Analysis and Reporting: Review of the data, determination of figures of merit, and interpretation of the results are reported in the project’s final report, published in March 2024. The results show that all tri-fuel pellets gasified well and maintained structural integrity throughout the gasification process. The syngas generated can be shifted to hydrogen by using commercial syngas shifting technologies. (5) High Fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Simulation: The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) team performed CFD simulations of the UDMB gasifier for two of the tri-fuel pellets gasified in Sotacarbo’s pilot scale gasifier. The kinetic mechanisms for the pyrolysis of each constituent, PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and waste plastics are based on thermogravimetric analysis performed by Sotacarbo. The gasification model was validated by comparing the predicted syngas composition at the exit of the gasifier with the measured syngas composition. In addition, the reactor’s measured internal temperature profile agreed well with the predicted internal reactor temperature profile. These results validate that the model can be used to predict the performance of the updraft moving bed gasifier for different feedstocks and operating conditions. This paper summarizes the results of the completed work in which the pelletizing procedure was validated to ensure the viability of the tri-fuel pellets for the gasification runs performed at Sotacarbo’s 30 mm UDMB gasifier. The gasification performance data from this series of nine runs will enable modeling of a full-scale HMI industrial scale gasifier supporting both combined heat and power, and Hydrogen production from coal (both fresh mined and legacy) combined with various biomass and waste plastics. Additionally, plans and progress on a follow-up project, being executed by the same project team, will be presented. In this project, a total of twenty (20) different feedstocks are being prepared from varying compositions of biomass (both woody biomass and corn stover) with a mixture of legacy coal waste, plastic waste, and refuse-derived fuel (RDF). The testing will provide information on gasification reaction efficiency/performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design to 50 megawatt electric (MWe) (equivalent hydrogen production). Tests will also be performed on a bench-scale fluidized-bed gasifier for comparison purposes. The results of this testing will be used to specify the range of feedstock blends that can be successfully gasified as well as quantify gasifier outputs based on specific blends.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗