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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Core-collapse supernova neutrino emission and detection informed by state-of-the-art three-dimensional numerical models

ABSTRACT Based on our recent three-dimensional core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations including both exploding and non-exploding models, we study the detailed neutrino signals in representative terrestrial neutrino observatories, namely Super-Kamiokande (Hyper-Kamiokande), DUNE, JUNO, and IceCube. We find that the physical origin of difference in the neutrino signals between 1D and 3D is mainly proto-neutron-star convection. We study the temporal and angular variations of the neutrino signals and discuss the detectability of the time variations driven by the spiral standing accretion shock instability (spiral SASI) when it emerges for non-exploding models. In addition, we determine that there can be a large angular asymmetry in the event rate (${\gtrsim} 50 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$), but the time-integrated signal has a relatively modest asymmetry (${\lesssim} 20 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$). Both features are associated with the lepton-number emission self-sustained asymmetry and the spiral SASI. Moreover, our analysis suggests that there is an interesting correlation between the total neutrino energy (TONE) and the cumulative number of neutrino events in each detector, a correlation that can facilitate data analyses of real observations. We demonstrate the retrieval of neutrino energy spectra for all flavours of neutrino by applying a novel spectrum reconstruction technique to the data from multiple detectors. We find that this new method is capable of estimating the TONE within the error of ∼20 per cent if the distance to the CCSN is ≲6 kpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Fractionation of the Early Terrestrial Atmospheres: Dynamical Escape

Hydrodynamic escape may have played a significant role in the early fractionation of the atmospheres of the terrestrial planets. This possibility has been demonstrated in the last two decades by numerous models that show radial, transonic flow of hydrogen can occur in the presence of sufficient solar EUV Hydrodynamic escape may have played a significant role in the early fractionation of the atmospheres of the terrestrial planets. This possibility has been demonstrated in the last two decades by numerous models that show radial, transonic flow of hydrogen can occur in the presence of sufficient solar EUV flux, thought to exist in the first 500 My. The models show that the larger the solar flux the greater the mass of the fractionating species, which are accelerated to escape speeds by the hydrogen wind through drag processes. As the atmospheres evolve and the solar EUV flux wanes, the maximum mass of flowing gas constituents decreases until all gases become static. We show that fractionation can continue beyond this point when non-radial flow and dynamically enhanced Jeans escape are considered. For example, the early terrestrial atmospheres are thought to have had large hydrogen contents, resulting in exobase altitudes of a planetary radius or more. In this case, rotational speeds at the exobases of Earth and Mars would be large enough so that light constituents would "spin" off and fractionate, especially at equatorial latitudes. Also, in the presence of transonic flow of hydrogen only, non-radial expansion throws heavier gases to high altitudes in the exosphere, accompanied by strong bulk speeds at the exobase, which results in enhanced thermal escape fluxes and fractionation. flux, thought to exist in the first 500 My. The models show that the larger the solar flux the greater the mass of the fractionating species, which are accelerated to escape speeds by the hydrogen wind through drag processes. As the atmospheres evolve and the solar EUV flux wanes, the maximum mass of flowing gas constituents decreases until all gases become static. We show that fractionation can continue beyond this point when non-radial flow and dynamically enhanced Jeans escape are considered. For example, the early terrestrial atmospheres are thought to have had large hydrogen contents, resulting in exobase altitudes of a planetary radius or more. In this case, rotational speeds at the exobases of Earth and Mars would be large enough so that light constituents would "spin" off and fractionate, especially at equatorial latitudes. Also, in the presence of transonic flow of hydrogen only, non-radial expansion throws heavier gases to high altitudes in the exosphere, accompanied by strong bulk speeds at the exobase, which results in enhanced thermal escape fluxes and fractionation.

Hartle, Richard E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Surface scattering properties estimated from modeling airborne multiple emission angle reflectance data

Here, researchers apply the Hapke function to airborne bidirectional reflectance data collected over three terrestrial surfaces. The objectives of the study were to test the range of natural surfaces that the Hapke model fits and to evaluate model parameters in terms of known surface properties. The data used are multispectral and multiple emission angle data collected during the Geologic Remote Sensing Field Experiment (GRSFE) over a mud-cracked playa, an artificially roughened playa, and a basalt cobble strewn playa at Lunar Lake Playa in Nevada. Airborne remote sensing data and associated field measurements were acquired at the same time. The airborne data were acquired by the Advanced Solid State Array Spectroradiometer (ASAS) instrument, a 29-spectral band imaging system. ASAS reflectance data for a cobble-strewn surface and an artificially rough playa surface on Lunar Lake Playa can be explained with the Hanke model. The cobble and rough playa sites are distinguishable by a single scattering albedo, which is controlled by material composition; by the roughness parameter, which appears to be controlled by the surface texture and particle size; and the symmetry factor of the single particle phase function, which is controlled by particle size and shape. A smooth playa surface consisting of compacted, fine-grained particles has reflectance variations that are also distinct from either the cobble site or rough playa site. The smooth playa appears to behave more like a Lambertian surface that cannot be modeled with the Hapke function.

Guinness, Edward A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Refinement of Models for VLBI Analysis

Continual refinement of models and estimation methods is an integral part of improving VLBI measurements of Earth orientation and position along with advances in instrumentation and observing strategy. The modeling of the troposphere continues to be challenging with recent improvements in treating the mean gradient and gradient variations affecting the terrestrial reference frame scale and celestial declinations near the current limits of accuracy. Revised models of nutation and solid Earth tides are implemented in CALC 9.0 to conform to the latest IERS Conventions along with other changes to facilitate use by VLBI correlators. Using data since 1995 the celestial reference frame has been extended and improved consistent with the definition and 0.25 mas accuracy limit of the ICRF. The current definition of the VLBI terrestrial reference frame places a floor on the accuracy of station velocities at the 0.4 mm/yr level. The establishment of the IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry) in the past year will provide a forum for further improvements of VLBI data analysis.

Ma, C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Simulated Water Well Performance on Mars

The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Recent discovery of exposed water ice scarps in Martian mid-latitudes has bolstered the evidence for massive amounts of almost pure water in these regions. These favorable indications of massive quantities of water have initiated studies of changes that could be made to human Mars missions if a means could be devised that would make this water available to these crews. The proposed paper will describe progress towards developing one approach for accessing and extracting water from these mid-latitude sources. This approach relies on mechanical drills to access the water ice through overlying debris. Once the ice has been accessed, a technique known as a Rodriguez Well is used to melt the ice, store the resulting water until it is needed, and then pump the water to the surface for use. Previous work in this area has utilized a computer simulation to predict the performance of the Rodriguez Well. This simulation was developed originally to predict performance in terrestrial polar regions. While the basic approach used in this model is appropriate for a similar well on Mars, several parameters were known to require a change to correctly model the Martian environment. Some of these parameters are empirical and require experiments simulating the Martian environment to determine their value. The proposed paper will describe the experiments set up to determine the value of these parameters and compare their numerical value to the terrestrial equivalent. Finally, the proposed paper will show results from the updated computer simulation and compare results with those determined from the original version of the simulation.

water↗
NASA NTRS1974

The GISS model of the global atmosphere

A description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection. Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Metal/silicate fractionation in the solar system.

Fractionation between the metal and silicate components of objects in the inner solar system has long been recognized as a necessity in order to explain the observed density variations of the terrestrial planets and the H-group, L-group dichotomy of the ordinary chondrites. This paper discusses the densities of the terrestrial planets in light of current physical and chemical models of processes in the solar nebula. It is shown that the observed density trends in the inner solar system need not be the result of special fractionation processes, and that the densities of the planets may be direct results of simultaneous application of both physical and chemical restraints on the structure of the nebula, most notably the variation of temperature with heliocentric distance. The density of Mercury is easily attributed to accretion at temperatures so high that MgSiO3 is only partially retained but Fe metal is condensed. The densities of the other terrestrial planet are shown to be due to different degrees of retention of S, O and H as FeS, FeO and hydrous silicates produced in chemical equilibrium between condensates and solar-composition gases.

Lewis, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. Evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. Simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5-7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year-1. This large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Groundwater storage↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACe) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5–7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year−1. this large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Bailing Li↗
NASA NTRS1993

Magellan vertical polarization radar observations

The Magellan high-gain radar antenna system was designed to transmit and receive signals in a pure linear polarization state. The nominal mapping configuration placed this linear polarization direction parallel to the surface of Venus, providing SAR image data in the HH polarization (horizontal transmit and receive) and radiothermal emission data in the H (horizontal - receive only) polarization. During Magellan's extended mission (cycles 2 and 3), two brief experiments were conducted in which the spacecraft was rotated 90 degrees along the axis of the antenna boresight, producing SAR data in the VV polarization and emission data in the V polarization. This study focuses on the SAR results from the first experiment, which included portions of the highly reflective Beta Regio highlands. Theoretical models of polarimetric backscatter, along with experimental data from terrestrial surfaces, predict VV backscatter cross section values to be higher than HH values for most natural surfaces. Randomly polarized ('depolarized') backscatter from rough surfaces is expected in equal amounts for either incident polarization. Roughness differences will therefore be more pronounced in HH measurements than in VV, because the depolarized random component makes up a proportionately larger fraction of the HH backscatter. In addition, HH cross section values are observed to fall off more rapidly than VV values with increasing incidence angle. Slope-related backscatter differences will, therefore, be more pronounced in HH images. The small perturbation polarimetric scattering model also predicts higher VV to HH ratios for surfaces of high dielectric constant.

Plaut, Jeffrey J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Models of atmosphere-ecosystem-hydrology interactions: Approaches and testing

Interactions among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the hydrological cycle have been the subject of investigation for many years, although most of the research has had a regional focus. The topic is broad, including the effects of climate and hydrology on vegetation, the effects of vegetation on hydrology, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the atmosphere, and interactions of the cycles via material flux such as solutes and trace gases. The intent of this paper is to identify areas of critical uncertainty, discuss modeling approaches to resolving those problems, and then propose techniques for testing. I consider several interactions specifically to illustrate the range of problems. These areas are as follows: (1) cloud parameterizations and the land surface, (2) soil moisture, and (3) the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Schimel, David S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solubility Product of Vanadinite Pb 5 (VO 4 ) 3 Cl at 25 °C—A Comprehensive Approach to Incongruent Dissolution Modeling

Although vanadinite (Pb 5 (VO 4 ) 3 Cl occurs in abundance in various terrestrial geochemical systems of natural and anthropogenic origin and is seriously considered as a potential nuclear waste sequestering agent, its actual application is severely limited by a lack of understanding of its basic thermodynamic parameters. In this regard, the greatest challenge is posed by its incongruent dissolution, which is a pivotal hurdle for effective geochemical modeling. Our paper presents an universal approach for geochemical computing of systems undergoing incongruent dissolution which, along with unique, long-term experiments on vanadinites’ stability, allowed us to determine the mineral solubility constant. The dissolution experiments were carried out at pH = 3.5 for 12 years. Vanadinite has dissolved incongruently, continuously re-precipitating into chervetite (Pb 2 V 2 O 7 ) with the two minerals remaining in mutual equilibrium until termination of the experiments. The empirically derived solubility constant K sp,V,298 = 10 –91.89 ± 0.05 of vanadinite was determined for the first time. The proposed modeling method is versatile and can be adopted to other mineral systems undergoing incongruent dissolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal and Long‐Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress

Abstract Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007–2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS‐derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗