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Visions 2025 and Linkage to NEXT

This talk will describe the progress to date on creating a science-driven vision for the NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) in the post-2010 period. This effort began in the Fall of 2001 by organizing five science workgroups with representatives from NASA, academia and other agencies: Long-Term Climate, Medium-Term Climate, Extreme Weather, Biosphere & Ecosystems, and Solid Earth, Ice Sheets, & Sea Level. Each workgroup was directed to scope out one Big Question, including not just the science but the observational and modeling requirements, the information system requirements, and the applications and benefits to society. This first set of five Big Questions is now in hand and has been presented to the ESE Director. It includes: water resources, intraseasonal predictability, tropical cyclogenesis, invasive species, and sea level. Each of these topics will be discussed briefly. How this effort fits into the NEXT vision exercise and into Administrator O'Keefe's new vision for NASA will also be discussed.

Wiscombe, W.↗

Feasibility of making sound power measurements in the NASA Langley V/STOL tunnel test section

Based on exploratory acoustic measurements in Langley's V/STOL wind tunnel, recommendations are made on the methodology for making sound power measurements of aircraft components in the closed tunnel test section. During airflow, tunnel self-noise and microphone flow-induced noise place restrictions on the amplitude and spectrum of the sound source to be measured. Models of aircraft components with high sound level sources, such as thrust engines and powered lift systems, seem likely candidates for acoustic testing.

Brooks, T. F.↗

Interactions of simultaneous perturbations of stratospheric photochemistry

The combined effects of two specific ozone perturbation mechanisms are examined. The need to look back to predictions of the near past as well as the future as a means of testing model results is emphasized. The two perturbations examined are that due to chlorofluoromethane (CFM) release and that due to the air pollutants CO and nitrogen oxide. A steady-state model is used to investigate the characteristics of the stratospheric-tropospheric photochemical system for differing levels of CO and nitrogen oxide fluxes at the ground and for simultaneously changing the stratospheric from CFM release. Two basic scenarios chosen to illustrate the competing effects of the two types of perturbation use the time-dependence for chlorine radical buildup calculated for constant continued release of CFM's.

Butler, D. M.↗

The role of energetic O(+) precipitation in a mid-latitude aurora

It is shown that fluxes of precipitating energetic O(+) that have been observed by satellites in the topside ionosphere can explain the magnitude of the N2+(1 N) (first negative) 3914-angstroms and N2(2 P) (second positive) 3371-angstroms emission rate observed during a mid-latitude aurora over Logan, Utah (41 degrees N, 111 degrees W), on 21-22 September 1982. Heavy particle precipitation has previously been invoked to explain the anomalously high populations in the upper vibrational levels of the N2+(1 N) system that are evident in the observed emissions. An improved model is used to investigate the impact of precipitating heavy ions on the atmosphere. The nocturnal thermospheric heating rate and ionization rate during one of these events can be equivalent to the daytime EUV heating and ionization rates. The observed spectrum can be explained by energetic O(+) precipitation to within the uncertainties of the inputs to the model.

Ishimoto, M.↗

Autonomous planetary rover at Carnegie Mellon

This report describes progress in research on an autonomous robot for planetary exploration. In 1989, the year covered by this report, a six-legged walking robot, the Ambler, was configured, designed, and constructed. This configuration was used to overcome shortcomings exhibited by existing wheeled and walking robot mechanisms. The fundamental advantage of the Ambler is that the actuators for body support are independent of those for propulsion; a subset of the planar joints propel the body, and the vertical actuators support and level the body over terrain. Models of the Ambler's dynamics were developed and the leveling control was studied. An integrated system capable of walking with a single leg over rugged terrain was implemented and tested. A prototype of an Ambler leg is suspended below a carriage that slides along rails. To walk, the system uses a laser scanner to find a clear, flat foothold, positions the leg above the foothold, contacts the terrain with the foot, and applies force enough to advance the carriage along the rails. Walking both forward and backward, the system has traversed hundreds of meters of rugged terrain including obstacles too tall to step over, trenches too deep to step in, closely spaced rocks, and sand hills. In addition, preliminary experiments were conducted with concurrent planning and execution, and a leg recovery planner that generates time and power efficient 3D trajectories using 2D search was developed. A Hero robot was used to demonstrate mobile manipulation. Indoor tasks include collecting cups from the lab floor, retrieving printer output, and recharging when its battery gets low. The robot monitors its environment, and handles exceptional conditions in a robust fashion, using vision to track the appearance and disappearance of cups, onboard sonars to detect imminent collisions, and monitors to detect the battery level.

Whittaker, William↗

Case study of a low-reflectivity pulsating microburst - Numerical simulation of the Denver, 8 July 1989, storm

Results from a 3D simulation of a very strong microburst, detected by the Low-Level Windshear Alert System, are presented. The simulation was performed using the Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) model (Proctor, 1987) which is a 3D nonhydrostatic cloud model that includes parameterizations for both liquid and ice-phase microphysics. Emphasis is placed om the pulsating characteristic and the very-low radar reflectivity of the event. The simulation revealed that the dissipating cloud induces a type-1 pulsating microburst event, with at least three distinct microburst pulses over a period of 20 min.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

Monitoring Coastal Marshes for Persistent Flooding and Salinity Stress

Our objective is to provide NASA remote sensing products that provide inundation and salinity information on an ecosystem level to support habitat switching models. Project born out of need by the Coastal Restoration Monitoring System (CRMS), joint effort by Louisiana Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey, for information on persistence of flooding by storm surge and other flood waters. The results of the this work support the habitat-switching modules in the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model, which provides scientific evaluation for restoration management. CLEAR is a collaborative effort between the Louisiana Board of Regents, the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (LDNR), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Anticipated results will use: a) Resolution enhanced time series data combining spatial resolution of Landsat with temporal resolution of MODIS for inundation estimates. b) Potential salinity products from radar and multispectral modeling. c) Combined inundation and salinity inputs to habitat switching module to produce habitat switching maps (shown at left)

Kalcic, Maria↗

Numerical Modeling of Nanoelectronic Devices

Nanoelectronic Modeling 3-D (NEMO 3-D) is a computer program for numerical modeling of the electronic structure properties of a semiconductor device that is embodied in a crystal containing as many as 16 million atoms in an arbitrary configuration and that has overall dimensions of the order of tens of nanometers. The underlying mathematical model represents the quantummechanical behavior of the device resolved to the atomistic level of granularity. The system of electrons in the device is represented by a sparse Hamiltonian matrix that contains hundreds of millions of terms. NEMO 3-D solves the matrix equation on a Beowulf-class cluster computer, by use of a parallel-processing matrix vector multiplication algorithm coupled to a Lanczos and/or Rayleigh-Ritz algorithm that solves for eigenvalues. In a recent update of NEMO 3-D, a new strain treatment, parameterized for bulk material properties of GaAs and InAs, was developed for two tight-binding submodels. The utility of the NEMO 3-D was demonstrated in an atomistic analysis of the effects of disorder in alloys and, in particular, in bulk In(x)Ga(l-x)As and in In0.6Ga0.4As quantum dots.

Klimeck, Gerhard↗

A Multi-Purpose Modular Electronics Integration Node for Exploration Extravehicular Activity

As NASA works to develop an effective integrated portable life support system design for exploration Extravehicular activity (EVA), alternatives to the current system s electrical power and control architecture are needed to support new requirements for flexibility, maintainability, reliability, and reduced mass and volume. Experience with the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has demonstrated that the current architecture, based in a central power supply, monitoring and control unit, with dedicated analog wiring harness connections to active components in the system has a significant impact on system packaging and seriously constrains design flexibility in adapting to component obsolescence and changing system needs over time. An alternative architecture based in the use of a digital data bus offers possible wiring harness and system power savings, but risks significant penalties in component complexity and cost. A hybrid architecture that relies on a set of electronic and power interface nodes serving functional models within the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) is proposed to minimize both packaging and component level penalties. A common interface node hardware design can further reduce penalties by reducing the nonrecurring development costs, making miniaturization more practical, maximizing opportunities for maturation and reliability growth, providing enhanced fault tolerance, and providing stable design interfaces for system components and a central control. Adaptation to varying specific module requirements can be achieved with modest changes in firmware code within the module. A preliminary design effort has developed a common set of hardware interface requirements and functional capabilities for such a node based on anticipated modules comprising an exploration PLSS, and a prototype node has been designed assembled, programmed, and tested. One instance of such a node has been adapted to support testing the swingbed carbon dioxide and humidity control element in NASA s advanced PLSS 2.0 test article. This paper will describe the common interface node design concept, results of the prototype development and test effort, and plans for use in NASA PLSS 2.0 integrated tests.

Hodgson, Edward↗

Impact Simulation of Composite Panels for Aerospace Applications

The aerospace research community has been working towards the development of a comprehensive framework for the design of composite structures at the component, subassembly, assembly, and system levels. Such a framework requires accurate, efficient and easy-to-use mathematical and computational models that are in sync with physical reality. The research work in this paper is designed to help an aerospace structural engineer move towards this goal by simulating dynamic impact to composite panels. First, the existing orthotropic visco-elastic visco-plastic material model in LS-DYNA commercial finite element program, MAT_COMPOSITE_TABULATED_PLASTICITY_DAMAGE (MAT_213) is enhanced with the development and use of rate-dependent damage data. Using state-of-the-art experimental procedures, impact validation test data are created. Second, the versatility of the constitutive model is examined by its ability to simulate a low velocity (27 ft/s, 8 m/s) impact test, and two high velocity impact tests (385–417 ft/s, 117–127 m/s) that straddle the ballistic limit of the projectile and the composite panels. Third, these impact events are modeled using three different finite element types – under-integrated and fully-integrated solid elements, and fully-integrated thin shell elements. Insight into accuracy versus numerical efficiency is gained by comparing the performance of solid versus thin shell elements. The numerical results show that accurate predictions of these impact events can be obtained with reasonable effort and care.

Simulations↗

Modeling of Blood Lead Levels in Astronauts Exposed to Lead from Microgravity-Accelerated Bone Loss

Human exposure to lead has been associated with toxicity to multiple organ systems. Studies of various population groups with relatively low blood lead concentrations (<10 μg/dL) have indicated associations of blood lead level with lower cognitive test scores in children, later onset of puberty in girls, and increased blood pressure and cardiovascular mortality rates in adults. Cognitive effects are considered by regulatory agencies to be the most sensitive endpoint at low doses. Although ~95% of the body burden of lead is stored in the bones, the adverse effects of lead correlate with the concentration of lead in the blood better than with that in the bones. NASA has found that prolonged exposure to microgravity during spaceflight results in a significant loss of bone minerals, the extent of which varies from individual to individual and from bone to bone, but generally averages about 0.5% per month. During such bone loss, lead that had been stored in bones would be released along with calcium. The effects on the concentration of lead in the blood (PbB) of various concentrations of lead in drinking water (PbW) and of lead released from bones due to accelerated osteoporosis in microgravity, as well as changes in exposure to environmental lead before, during, and after spaceflight were evaluated using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that incorporated exposure to environmental lead both on earth and in flight and included temporarily increased rates of osteoporosis during spaceflight.

Garcia, H.↗

Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems

In late fiscal year 2020, the Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project began the process of formulating an investment strategy to support development of the technologies required for a high-power (megawatt-class) nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system capable of performing human-scale missions. This activity was initiated concurrent with several high-level studies and assessments were either under way or had just concluded. Studies of human-scale Mars missions have been performed several times over the past two decades. One of the most recent studies examined opposition-class human Mars missions to occur in the late 2030s timeframe [1,2]. The mission architecture assumed a hybrid NEP/chem-propelled vehicle that used a high specific impulse (Isp) NEP-system and a liquid oxygen (LOx)-liquid methane high thrust chemical stage (two 110 kN (25 klbf) thrust, 365 s Isp engines) for maneuvers performed to enter and exit gravity wells. Trajectory analyses performed in this study showed that such a mission could be performed with 2-4 MWe directed into the electric propulsion system (operating for 20,000+ hours), with the large range representing different opposition-class Mars mission opportunities and permutations on the trajectory design, concept of operations, and technology choices. In 2020, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) performed a study to evaluate the maturity of the different technologies required for nuclear propulsion systems [3]. The executive summary of this report provided the following top-level conclusions: • “The majority of critical technologies for… NEP/Chem… systems are relatively immature” • “TRLs [technology readiness levels] in the literature are often overestimated” • “The majority of critical technologies… for NEP/Chem… systems are at a relatively high level of advancement degree of difficulty (AD2 > 4) for maturation, requiring a dual development approach” • “The proper assessment of baseline TRL and AD2 values and the estimation of requirements and resources required for advancement have been consistent issues for NEP,” • “Non-advocate reviews should occur at the start of a technology program and at all key milestones.” In 2021, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) issued a separate report [4] identifying the “primary technical and programmatic challenges, merits, and risks for maturing space nuclear propulsion technologies of interest to a future human Mars exploration mission.” That work contained several important findings, including: • “Developing a MWe-class NEP system for the baseline mission would require increasing power by orders of magnitude relative to NEP system flight- or ground-based technology demonstrations completed to date.” • “Subscale in-space flight testing of NEP systems cannot address many of the risks and potential failure modes associated with the baseline mission NEP system. With sufficient M&S [modeling & simulation] and ground testing, including modular subsystem tests at full scale and power, flight qualification requirements can be met by the cargo missions that will precede the first crewed mission to Mars. Fully integrated ground testing may not be required.” • “As a result of low and intermittent investment over the past several decades, it is unclear if even an aggressive program would be able to develop an NEP system capable of executing the baseline mission in 2039.” These efforts motivated the SNP project to investigate the technologies available for a megawatt-class high power nuclear electric propulsion system. That system is illustrated schematically in Figure 1 and is comprised of five separate top-level critical technology elements (CTEs). 1. Nuclear Reactor – Thermal power source for the system, utilizing high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) as the nuclear fuel. Reactor radiation shielding is also included in this CTE. 2. Power Conversion – Operates as a thermodynamic cycle, accepting nuclear reactor thermal power as an input and converting it to mechanical power. 3. Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) – Accepts as an input mechanical power from the power conversion system, which is used to generate electrical power. The PMAD system also distributes the generated electrical power to all other parts of the spacecraft, including the high-power EP system. The PMAD system may also perform duties such as isolation, fault detection, and power transformation/rectification for different spacecraft systems, including the thrusters. 4. Electric Propulsion (EP) – Accepts as an input electrical power, which is used to accelerate a propellant to high speeds to produce thrust. This system includes the power processing unit (PPU), which converts the power it receives to the correct current and voltage required by the thrusters, and the propellant storage and feed systems, which contain and meter the flow of propellant to the thrusters. 5. Thermal Management (Radiators/Heat Rejection) – The cold side of the thermodynamic power conversion cycle, accepts thermal power from the power conversion system and radiatively rejects that heat to space. In this paper, we describe the SNP project formulation and investment strategy that aims to accomplish the research and development required to advance the technology readiness for each CTE. The strategy relies heavily upon experimental testing supported by modeling and simulation to yield realistic assessments of the technologies, which in turn will be used to inform future NEP system-level design decisions and any potential technology downselects.

Kurt A Polzin↗

Correleation of the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Models in Thermal Desktop

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III was launched on February 19, 2017 and mounted to the International Space Station (ISS) to begin its three-year mission. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Correlation of the thermal model is important since the payload will be expected to survive a three-year mission on ISS under varying thermal environments. Three major thermal vacuum (TVAC) tests were completed during the development of the SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP); two subsystem-level tests and a payload-level test. Additionally, a characterization TVAC test was performed in order to verify performance of a system of heater plates that was designed to allow the IP to achieve the required temperatures during payload-level testing; model correlation was performed for this test configuration as well as those including the SAGE III flight hardware. This document presents the methods that were used to correlate the SAGE III models to TVAC at the subsystem and IP level, including the approach for modeling the parts of the payload in the thermal chamber, generating pre-test predictions, and making adjustments to the model to align predictions with temperatures observed during testing. Model correlation quality will be presented and discussed, and lessons learned during the correlation process will be shared.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5. Diurnal cycles are explicitly resolved by merging geostationary satellite observations with CERES and MODIS. Atmospheric state data are provided from a frozen version of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office- Data Assimilation System at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition to improving the accuracy of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, CERES also produces radiative fluxes at the surface and at several levels in the atmosphere using radiative transfer modeling, constrained at the TOA by CERES (ERBE was limited to the TOA). In all, CERES uses 11 instruments on 7 spacecraft all integrated to obtain climate accuracy in TOA to surface fluxes. This presentation will provide an overview of several new CERES datasets of interest to the climate community (including a new adjusted TOA flux dataset constrained by estimates of heat storage in the Earth system), show direct comparisons between CERES ad ERBE, and provide a detailed error analysis of CERES fluxes at various time and space scales. We discuss how observations can be used to reduce uncertainties in cloud feedback and climate sensitivity and strongly argue why we should NOT "call off the quest".

Loeb, Norman G.↗

Alternative Metrics for Evaluating the Resilence of Advanced Life Support Systems

Ensuring the safety of the crew is a key performance requirement of a life support system. However, a number of conceptual and practical difficulties arise when devising metrics to concretely measure the ability of a life support system to maintain critical functions in the presence of anticipated and unanticipated faults. Resilience is a dynamic property of a life support system that depends on the complex interactions between faults, controls and system hardware. We review some of the approaches to understanding the robustness or resilience of complex systems being developed in diverse fields such as ecology, software engineering and cell biology and discuss their applicability to regenerative life support systems. We also consider how approaches to measuring resilience vary depending on system design choices such as the definition and choice of the nominal operating regime. Finally, we explore data collection and implementation issues such as the key differences between the instantaneous or conditional and average or overall measures of resilience. Extensive simulation of a hybrid computational model of a water revitalization subsystem (WRS) with probabilistic, component-level faults provides data about off-nominal behavior of the system. The data are used to consider alternative measures of resilience as predictors of the system's ability to recover from component-level faults.

Bell, Ann Maria↗

Assessing Version 4 of the SMAP L4_SM Data Product

Version 4 of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product benefits from an improved land surface modeling system. Surface soil moisture is typically drier by several volumetric percent in Version 4 compared to Version 3, whereas root zone soil moisture is wetter in Version 4 in some regions and drier in others. Results from core validation site comparisons show that Version 4 of the L4_SM data product meets the accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the RMSE after removal of the long-term mean difference (ubRMSE). The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM data at the 9 km scale is 0.039 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture and 0.029 m3 m-3 for root zone soil moisture, below the 0.04 m3 m-3 requirement. L4_SM surface and root zone soil moisture estimates are more skillful than model-only simulation estimates that are not informed by SMAP brightness temperature observations, with statistically significant improvements at the 5% level for surface soil moisture R and anomaly R values. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from more than 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results.

Reichle, R.↗