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DOE OSTI2026

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Classification of events from α -induced reactions in the MUSIC detector via statistical and ML methods

The Multi-Sampling Ionization Chamber (MUSIC) detector is typically used to measure nuclear reaction cross sections relevant for nuclear astrophysics, fusion studies, and other applications. From the MUSIC data produced in one experiment scientists carefully extract an order of 10 3 events of interest from about 10 9 total events, where each event can be represented by an 18-dimensional vector. However, the standard data classification process is based on expert driven, manually intensive data analysis techniques that require several months to identify patterns and classify the relevant events from the collected data. Here, to address this issue, we present a method for the classification of events originating from specific α-induced reactions by combining statistical and machine learning methods that require significantly less input from the domain scientist, relative to the standard technique. Here, we applied the new method to two experimental data sets and compared our results with those obtained using traditional methods. With few exceptions, the number of events classified by our method agrees within ±20% with the results obtained using traditional methods. With the present method, which is the first of its kind for the MUSIC data, we have established the foundation for the automated extraction of physical events of interest from experiments using the MUSIC detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

High fidelity multiphysics tightly coupled model for a lead cooled fast reactor concept and application to statistical calculation of hot channel factors

A tightly coupled multiphysics code system is established using the MOOSE framework for hot channel factor (HCF) evaluation on a Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) concept. The coupled system is driven by the Griffin multiphysics coupling capability under which the MOOSE Heat Transfer module and NekRS computational fluid dynamics solver are coupled for conjugate heat transfer using the Cardinal application. The coupled capability is demonstrated on an LFR assembly model based on materials and geometry of a prototypical lead-cooled fast reactor design by Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC. Moreover, the work integrates the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM) to perform calculations for statistical analysis of HCF. Furthermore, the coupling strategy and workflow demonstrated in this paper is not only useful for predicting accurate hot channel factors for different kinds of advanced reactors but also for other engineering applications such as control rod worth assessment, generation of high-fidelity database for Artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) training, design optimization and multi-resolution modeling.

Cardinal↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating MPI resource usage summary statistics

The Message Passing Interface (MPI) remains the dominant programming model for scientific applications running on today’s high-performance computing (HPC) systems. This dominance stems from MPI’s powerful semantics for inter-process communication that has enabled scientists to write applications for simulating important physical phenomena. MPI does not, however, specify how messages and synchronization should be carried out. Those details are typically dependent on low-level architecture details and the message characteristics of the application. Therefore, analyzing an application’s MPI resource usage is critical to tuning MPI’s performance on a particular platform. The result of this analysis is typically a discussion of the mean message sizes, queue search lengths and message arrival times for a workload or set of workloads. While a discussion of the arithmetic mean in MPI resource usage might be the most intuitive summary statistic, it is not always the most accurate in terms of representing the underlying data. In this paper, we analyze MPI resource usage for a number of key MPI workloads using an existing MPI trace collector and discrete-event simulator. Our analysis demonstrates that the average, while easy and efficient to calculate, is a useful metric for characterizing latency and bandwidth measurements, but may not be a good representation of application message sizes, match list search depths, or MPI inter-operation times. Additionally, we show that the median and mode are superior choices in many cases. We also observe that the arithmetic mean is not the best representation of central tendency for data that are drawn from distributions that are multi-modal or have heavy tails. Furthermore, the results and analysis of our work provide valuable guidance on how we, as a community, should discuss and analyze MPI resource usage data for scientific applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble average and nearest particle statistics in disperse multiphase flows

A relation between the ensemble average and the nearest particle statistics is derived. The relation accounts for interactions among all the particles, not only the nearest one, and can be used to study long-range particle interactions without the difficulty of a divergent integral. As an example, this relation is applied to calculate the particle sedimentation velocity to the first order of the particle volume fraction. Using the relation, an important particle–fluid–particle stress is introduced for general multiphase flows.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical characterization of a shock interacting with an inclined gas column

We present a statistical characterization of the interaction between a planar shock and a finite-diameter, cylindrical column of dense gas based on three-dimensional, large-eddy simulation results. In the simulation, the column of gas is initially inclined at an angle $\alpha _0$ with respect to the shock plane. Effects of the initial column angle on the mixing characteristics are examined at Mach number 2.0 for column incline angles $1^\circ$ , $5^\circ$ , $10^\circ$ and $30^\circ$ . Mean velocity profiles show that the column angle affects the gas velocity components in the vertical plane, but not in the spanwise direction. The gas undergoes higher initial upward acceleration at larger initial column incline angles. With time, the gas motion tends to become one-dimensional in the streamwise direction. Initially, velocity fluctuations are most intense within the interior of the column, but concentrate near the column leading edge over time. At high wavenumbers $\kappa$ , the turbulent kinetic energy spectra follow a power-law scaling of $\kappa ^{-1}$ . The structure functions of the mass fraction do not clearly demonstrate power-law scaling except at early times for $\alpha _0=30^\circ$ , manifesting overall trends very similar to those observed in earlier experiments. Probability distributions of the mass fraction show independence of the mean and the standard deviation of the mixed gas on $\alpha _0$ . The column angle was also found to have little effect on the mixing efficiency characterized by the molecular mixedness. Velocity components in the streamwise and transverse directions tend towards a bimodal distribution for larger $\alpha _{0}$ .

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Chemocatalytic Route to Stereoregular Poly(3-hydroxyhexanoate) and Its Statistical and Tri-Block Copolymers

Poly(3-hydroxyhexanoate) (P3HHx)-based poly(3- hydroxyalkanoate)s (PHAs) are biologically produced, commercially implemented PHAs, but little is known in the open literature about the structure and property characterizations of discrete, authentic homopolymer P3HHx, and its copolymers with poly(3- hydroxybutyrate) (P3HB). Here, we introduce a chemocatalytic route to stereoregular (both isotactic and syndiotactic) P3HHx and PHA copolymers with P3HB, including statistical copolymer P3HBHx with various levels of 3HHx incorporation and discrete hard−soft−hard triblock copolymer P3HB-b-P3HHx-b-P3HB, and present extensive characterizations of their structures, thermal properties, and mechanical performance. The synthesis is efficiently achieved by one-pot polymerization of eight-membered di(n-propyl) and dimethyl (for copolymerization) diolides catalyzed by chiral molecular catalysts. Notably, P3HBHx can be rapidly produced in quantitative yield and exhibits high molar mass (M n up to 551 kg/mol) as well as both high modulus (up to 1.39 GPa) and ductility (up to 445%), while P3HB-b-P3HHx-b-P3HB further extends application temperature windows by possessing a unique combination of low T g (−18 °C) and high T m (154 °C) values. These findings highlight the stereomicrostructural and architectural versatility of chemocatalytic routes to PHAs, which, in turn, can be utilized to largely tune the PHA thermal properties and mechanical performance.

Biopolymers↗

DOE OSTI2025

First-Principles Statistical Mechanics Study of Magnetic Fluctuations and Order–Disorder in the Spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 Cathode

While significant magnetic interactions exist in lithium transition metal oxides, commonly used as Li-ion cathodes, the interplay between magnetic couplings, disorder, and redox processes remains poorly understood. In this work, we focus on the high-voltage spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO) cathode as a model system on which to apply a computational framework that uses first principles-based statistical mechanics methods to predict the finite temperature magnetic properties of materials and provide insights into the complex interplay between magnetic and chemical degrees of freedom. Density functional theory calculations on multiple distinct Ni–Mn orderings within the LNMO system, including the ordered ground-state structure (space group P4332), reveal a preference for a ferrimagnetic arrangement of the Ni and Mn sublattices due to strong antiferromagnetic superexchange interactions between neighboring Mn 4+ and Ni 2+ ions and ferromagnetic Mn–Mn and Ni–Ni couplings, as revealed by magnetic cluster expansions. These results are consistent with qualitative predictions using the Goodenough-Kanamori-Anderson rules. Simulations of the finite temperature magnetic properties of LNMO are conducted using Metropolis Monte Carlo. We find that a “semiclassical” Monte Carlo sampling method based on the Heisenberg Hamiltonian accurately predicts experimental magnetic transition temperatures observed in magnetometry measurements. This study highlights the importance of a robust computational toolkit that accurately captures the complex chemomagnetic interactions and predicts finite temperature magnetic behavior to help analyze experimental magnetic and magnetic resonance spectroscopy data acquired ex situ and operando.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Crystallization of Bottlebrush Statistical Copolymers of Polystyrene and Poly(ethylene oxide)

Here, bottlebrush statistical copolymers (BSCPs) with poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) and polystyrene (PS) side chains grafted to a polynorbornene (PNB) backbone were synthesized by ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). The impact of the glassy PS side chains on the crystallization of the PEO side chains as a function of the backbone length, grafting densities, and fraction of the PS and PEO side chains is described. The bottlebrush architecture, where the side chains are anchored to the backbone, inherently constrains the mobility of PEO. Compared with the bulk crystallization temperature of PEO, the higher glass transition temperature of PS places further constraints on PEO crystallization. The limited mobility of PEO leads to cold crystallization behavior during heating. Reduced grafting densities, in turn, reduce side-chain crowding, leading to less extended pendant structures. The degree of crystallinity of PEO was found to decrease at lower grafting densities to a point where crystallization was not observed. The average distance between bottlebrush backbones increased linearly with the backbone length, suggesting that the backbone forms a distinct mesodomain. For BSCPs with asymmetric volume fractions of PS and PEO side chains, the degree of crystallinity of PEO increases with a change from cold crystallization to normal nucleation and growth during cooling, as a result of reduced constraints on PEO mobility by the glassy PS side chains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Analysis of Intertube Tunneling Contacts in the Macroscopic Electrical Conductivity of Carbon Nanotube Fibers

Here, this study investigates the influence of tunneling contact resistances between carbon nanotubes (CNTs) on electron transport and electrical conductivity of macroscopic carbon nanofibers (CNFs), which profoundly impacts the performance of CNT thin film electronics, CNF electron emitters and cathodes, and energy conversion and storage devices. Utilizing a self-consistent electrical contact model coupling a transmission line model with tunneling current, we calculate the contact resistances of a plethora of CNT-CNT contacts within a CNF fiber, which consists of aligned, densely packed CNTs. A statistical analysis is conducted, using Gaussian distributions to account for variations in contact lengths, tunneling gap distances, and single CNT aspect ratios, to calculate the CNT-CNT contact resistance and the overall resistance of CNT fiber. By scaling our model to a macroscopic level, our results are in good agreement with experimental measurements. Our calculation suggests that while increasing the contact overlap length diminishes individual CNT-CNT contact resistance, it could paradoxically increase macroscopic CNT fiber resistance for a given constant CNF mass density, which is due to that fact that a larger overlap length allows more CNTs to pack along an electrical conduction path per unit length, leading to more tunneling contact junctions connected in series and thus less number of parallel conduction paths within the fiber cross section. Increasing tunneling gap distance increases both individual contact and overall fiber resistance. This research provides a simple design tool for tailoring CNT fiber electrical properties to promote real-world applications using CNTs or similar low-dimensional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Solid-State Electrode–Electrolyte Interface of a Model System Using First-Principles Statistical Mechanics and Thin-Film X-ray Characterization

Intermixing of atomic species at the electrode-electrolyte boundaries can impact the properties of the interfaces in solid-state batteries. Herein, this work uses first-principles statistical mechanics along with experimental characterization to understand intermixing at the electrode-electrolyte interface. For the model presented in this work, lithium manganese oxide (LiMn 2 O 4 , LMO) and lithium lanthanum titanate (Li 3x La 2/3-x TiO 3 , LLTO) are employed as the cathode and electrolyte, respectively. The results of the computational work show that Ti-Mn intermixing at the interface is significant at synthesis temperatures. The experimental results in this work find that, at some critical temperatures between 600 and 700 degrees C for material preparation, the interface of LLTO-LMO becomes blurred. Calculations predict that the interface is unstable with regard to Ti-Mn intermixing starting at 0 K, suggesting that the critical temperature found in the experiment is related to kinetics. The work overall suggests that, in designing a solid-state battery, the fundamental reactions such as intermixing need to be considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Finite-Temperature Structures of Supported Subnanometer Catalysts Inferred via Statistical Learning and Genetic Algorithm-Based Optimization

Single-atom catalysts (SACs) minimize noble metal utilization and can alter the activity and selectivity of supported metal nanoparticles. However, the morphology of active centers, including single atoms and subnanometer clusters of a few atoms, remains elusive due to experimental challenges. The computational cost to describe numerous cluster shapes and sizes makes direct first-principles calculations impractical. We present a computational framework to enable structure determination for single-atom and subnanometer cluster catalysts. As a case study, we obtained the low energy structures of Pd n (n = 1-21) clusters supported on CeO 2 (111), which are critical components of automobile three-way catalysts. Trained on density functional theory data, a three-dimensional cluster expansion is established using statistical learning to describe the Hamiltonian and predict energies of supported Pdn clusters of any structure. Low energy stable and metastable structures are identified using a Metropolis Monte Carlo-based genetic algorithm in the canonical ensemble at 300 K. We observe that supported single atoms sinter to form bilayer clusters and large cluster isomers share similarities in both shape and energy, and elucidate the significance of the support and microstructure on cluster stability. We discovered a simple surrogate structure-energy model, where the energy per atom scales with the square root of the average first coordination number, which can be used to estimate energies and compare the stability of clusters. Our framework, applicable to any metal/support system, fills an important methodological gap to predict the stability of supported metal catalysts in the subnanometer regime.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Counterintuitive Compatibilization of Poly(-Valerolactone) and Poly(L-Lactic Acid) by Statistical Copolymers toward Compostable and Recyclable Packaging

Poly(δ-valerolactone) (PVL) and poly(l-lactic acid) (PLLA) are bioderivable, compostable, and chemically recyclable plastics with synergistic properties for addressing plastic waste accumulation in receiving environments. Though recyclable-by-design polymers often fall short of competing with incumbent materials, blending affords a means to leverage individual component strengths toward ideal tunable properties. Polymer blends are often immiscible, but a range of methodologies are available to promote mixing. Here, we report on the compatibilization of 9 immiscible PVL and PLLA blends with three different compatibilization agents: thermoplastic starch, synthesized PVL-co-PLLA statistical copolymers (SCPs), and synthesized PVL-b-PLLA block-type copolymers. Resulting degrees of compatibilization are observed through scanning electron microscopy, corroborated by thermal and mechanical analyses monitoring performance as a function of microdomain size. Small-angle and wide-angle X-ray scattering experiments are conducted to observe the influence of compatibilizers on individual crystalline phases to further elucidate material behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations provide key insights into the interfacial interactions between homopolymers and compatibilizers. Finally, a suite of end-of-life avenues is established by biodegradation in industrial composting conditions, chemical recycling by deconstruction to hydroxymethyl esters, and direct chemical depolymerization to lactone precursors in mixed feed. Overall, we highlight several promising blends and the counterintuitive SCP compatibilization phenomenon toward high-performance, sustainable materials.

Compatibilization, copolymer compatibilizer, bio-b↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistically Steady State Large-Eddy Simulations Forced by an Idealized GCM: 1. Forcing Framework and Simulation Characteristics

Using large-eddy simulations (LES) systematically has the potential to inform parameterizations of subgrid-scale (SGS) processes in general circulation models (GCMs), such as turbulence, convection, and clouds. Here we show how LES can be run to emulate grid columns of GCMs to generate a library of LES across a cross-section of dynamical regimes. The LES setup replicates the thermodynamic and water budgets in GCM grid columns. Resolved horizontal and vertical transports of heat and water and large-scale pressure gradients from the GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES satisfies the same (slab-ocean) surface boundary conditions as the GCM, leaving the LES temperatures free to adjust. Radiative transfer is treated in a unied but highly idealized manner (a semi-gray atmosphere without cloud radiative effects) in both the GCM and LES. We show that the LES with these forcing and boundary conditions reaches statistically steady states without nudging to reference profiles. These steady states provide a training dataset for developing GCM parameterizations. The same LES setup also provides a good basis for studying the cloud response to global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Properties of Magnetic Structures and Energy Dissipation during Turbulent Reconnection in the Earth's Magnetotail

Here, we present the first statistical study of magnetic structures and associated energy dissipation observed during a single period of turbulent magnetic reconnection, by using the in situ measurements of the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission in the Earth's magnetotail on 26 July 2017. The structures are selected by identifying a bipolar signature in the magnetic field and categorized as plasmoids or current sheets via an automated algorithm which examines current density and plasma flow. The size of the plasmoids forms a decaying exponential distribution ranging from subelectron up to ion scales. The presence of substantial number of current sheets is consistent with a physical picture of dynamic production and merging of plasmoids during turbulent reconnection. The magnetic structures are locations of significant energy dissipation via electric field parallel to the local magnetic field, while dissipation via perpendicular electric field dominates outside of the structures. Significant energy also returns from particles to fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗