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A Multi-Year Effort to Forward the Validation of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models

To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of solar energetic particle (SEP) model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed by the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) in close collaboration with the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), and the Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB). SPHINX is being developed to evaluate the SEP Scoreboards (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/sep/), which are being used by SRAG to support space radiation operations for Mission Control. SPHINX is also being developed through a series of community challenges, which have defined a list of challenge events and a prescribed set of rules of participation. The participation of the research community has enabled the generalization of the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models and fully exercised the framework. The most recent challenge includes 30 SEP events and 33 non-event (quiet) periods and was supported by two dedicated SEPVAL working meetings, one in the US and one in Europe (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/community-workshops/ccmc-sepval-2023/). Here, we describe SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-VIVID, which will eventually be made available for public use. We present selected results, outcomes, and lessons learned from the SEPVAL working meetings and validation results of the SEP Scoreboards from 2019 to present. These efforts aim to define a set of community standards for SEP model validation and describe the current state-of-the-art of SEP model performance.

Kathryn Whitman↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Kepler Light Curve of V344 LYR: Constraining the Thermal-Viscous Limit Cycle Instability

We present time dependent modeling based on the accretion disk limit cycle model for a 90 d light curve of the short period SU UMa-type dwarf nova V344 Lyr taken by Kepler. The unprecedented precision and cadence (1 minute) far surpass that generally available for long term light curves. The data encompass a super outburst, preceded by three normal (i.e., short) outbursts and followed by two normal outbursts. The main decay of the super outburst is nearly perfectly exponential, decaying at a rate approx.12 d/mag, while the much more rapid decays of the normal outbursts exhibit a faster-than-exponential shape. We show that the standard limit cycle model can account for the light curve, without the need for either the thermal-tidal instability or enhanced mass transfer.

Cannizzo, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Studies of Particle Acceleration, Transport and Radiation in Impulsive Phase of Solar Flares

Solar activity and its most prominent aspect, the solar flares, have considerable influence on terrestrial and space weather. Solar flares also provide a suitable laboratory for the investigation of many plasma and high energy processes important in the magnetosphere of the Earth and many other space and astrophysical situations. Hence, progress in understanding of flares will have considerable scientific and societal impact. The primary goal of this grant is the understanding of two of the most important problems of solar flare physics, namely the determination of the energy release mechanism and how this energy accelerates particles. This is done through comparison of the observations with theoretical models, starting from observations and gradually proceeding to theoretically more complex situations as the lower foundations of our understanding are secured. It is generally agreed that the source of the flare energy is the annihilation of magnetic fields by the reconnection process. Exactly how this energy is released or how it is dissipated remains controversial. Moreover, the exact mechanism of the acceleration of the particles is still a matter of debate. Data from many spacecrafts and ground based instruments obtained over the past decades have given us some clues. Theoretical analyses of these data have led to the standard thick target model (STT) where most of the released energy goes into an (assumed) power law spectrum of accelerated particles, and where all the observed radiations are the consequence of the interaction of these particles with the flare plasma. However, some theoretical arguments, and more importantly some new observations, have led us to believe that the above picture is not complete. It appears that plasma turbulence plays a more prominent role than suspected previously, and that it is the most likely agent for accelerating particles. The model we have developed is based on production of a high level of plasma waves and turbulence in the reconnection region above a flare loop. This turbulence accelerates particles stochastically which radiate some of their energy in this region but carry most of their energy to the footpoints of the loop, where they lose all their energy and radiate bulk of the observed radiation as in the traditional thick target model. In the past we have worked on various aspects of this model. We have evaluated the interaction rates of the plasma waves with electrons and ions, developed theoretical frameworks for the acceleration, transport and radiative processes, and produced numerical codes for the investigation of these processes. The goal of this grant has been further development and testing of this new paradigm, with emphases on the relative acceleration of electrons and ions and on a comprehensive investigation of the turbulence generation, cascade, and damping processes. We review several pieces of important evidence that we have uncovered indicating the crucial roles of turbulence, in and we describe accomplishments during the past two years of this grant.

Petrosian, Vahe↗
NASA NTRS1979

A marching method for calculating line and continuum radiation in high energy flow fields

A method is presented for calculating nongrey radiative fluxes and intensities in a highly ionized, low temperature plasma with extreme line broadening. The method was developed to study radiative heating phenomena in the mass-injected hypersonic shock-layer environments characteristic of outer planet atmospheric entry, although it is not limited to such studies. The radiative properties model assumed local thermodynamic equilibrium and used standard continuum and molecular band models. The atomic line model, however, used a frequency-marching method for the frequency integration, which not only accounted completely for line overlapping (reabsorption) effects, but compared favorably in economy with the best equivalent-width methods. An assessment of hydrogen line-far-wing treatments, with recommendations for engineering models, is also presented.

Bolz, C. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A multigenerational Monte Carlo model of a comet coma

A steady state multigenerational Monte Carlo model was developed to describe the distribution of a neutral coma species which was produced after several photodissociation steps. This distribution can be compared with either line profiles derived from long slit spectroscopic observations or narrow band imaging, and be used to determine the elemental abundances present in the comet coma. A Monte Carlo model was chosen due to limitations in standard forms of more analytic models, such as those of Haser and Festou. In contrast to the analytical models, the Monte Carlo method can be modified to include new physical parameters.

Ferro, Anthony J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Application of Navier-Stokes code PAB3D with kappa-epsilon turbulence model to attached and separated flows

A three-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver was used to determine how accurately computations can predict local and average skin friction coefficients for attached and separated flows for simple experimental geometries. Algebraic and transport equation closures were used to model turbulence. To simulate anisotropic turbulence, the standard two-equation turbulence model was modified by adding nonlinear terms. The effects of both grid density and the turbulence model on the computed flow fields were also investigated and compared with available experimental data for subsonic and supersonic free-stream conditions.

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An Occupational Performance Test Validation Program for Fire Fighters at the Kennedy Space Center

We evaluated performance of a modified Combat Task Test (CTT) and of standard fitness tests in 20 male subjects to assess the prediction of occupational performance standards for Kennedy Space Center fire fighters. The CTT consisted of stair-climbing, a chopping simulation, and a victim rescue simulation. Average CTT performance time was 3.61 +/- 0.25 min (SEM) and all CTT tasks required 93% to 97% maximal heart rate. By using scores from the standard fitness tests, a multiple linear regression model was fitted to each parameter: the stairclimb (r(exp 2) = .905, P less than .05), the chopping performance time (r(exp 2) = .582, P less than .05), the victim rescue time (r(exp 2) = .218, P = not significant), and the total performance time (r(exp 2) = .769, P less than .05). Treadmill time was the predominant variable, being the major predictor in two of four models. These results indicated that standardized fitness tests can predict performance on some CTT tasks and that test predictors were amenable to exercise training.

Schonfeld, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Examination of Soil Moisture Retrieval Using SIR-C Radar Data and a Distributed Hydrological Model

A major objective of soil moisture-related hydrological-research during NASA's SIR-C/X-SAR mission was to determine and compare soil moisture patterns within humid watersheds using SAR data, ground-based measurements, and hydrologic modeling. Currently available soil moisture-inversion methods using active microwave data are only accurate when applied to bare and slightly vegetated surfaces. Moreover, as the surface dries down, the number of pixels that can provide estimated soil moisture by these radar inversion methods decreases, leading to less accuracy and, confidence in the retrieved soil moisture fields at the watershed scale. The impact of these errors in microwave- derived soil moisture on hydrological modeling of vegetated watersheds has yet to be addressed. In this study a coupled water and energy balance model operating within a topographic framework is used to predict surface soil moisture for both bare and vegetated areas. In the first model run, the hydrological model is initialized using a standard baseflow approach, while in the second model run, soil moisture values derived from SIR-C radar data are used for initialization. The results, which compare favorably with ground measurements, demonstrate the utility of combining radar-derived surface soil moisture information with basin-scale hydrological modeling.

Hsu, A. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Combustion Processes in Hybrid Rocket Engines

In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in the development of hybrid rocket engines for advanced launch vehicle applications. Hybrid propulsion systems use a solid fuel such as hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) along with a gaseous/liquid oxidizer. The performance of hybrid combustors depends on the convective and radiative heat fluxes to the fuel surface, the rate of pyrolysis in the solid phase, and the turbulent combustion processes in the gaseous phases. These processes in combination specify the regression rates of the fuel surface and thereby the utilization efficiency of the fuel. In this paper, we employ computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques in order to gain a quantitative understanding of the physical trends in hybrid rocket combustors. The computational modeling is tailored to ongoing experiments at Penn State that employ a two dimensional slab burner configuration. The coordinated computational/experimental effort enables model validation while providing an understanding of the experimental observations. Computations to date have included the full length geometry with and with the aft nozzle section as well as shorter length domains for extensive parametric characterization. HTPB is sed as the fuel with 1,3 butadiene being taken as the gaseous product of the pyrolysis. Pure gaseous oxygen is taken as the oxidizer. The fuel regression rate is specified using an Arrhenius rate reaction, which the fuel surface temperature is given by an energy balance involving gas-phase convection and radiation as well as thermal conduction in the solid-phase. For the gas-phase combustion, a two step global reaction is used. The standard kappa - epsilon model is used for turbulence closure. Radiation is presently treated using a simple diffusion approximation which is valid for large optical path lengths, representative of radiation from soot particles. Computational results are obtained to determine the trends in the fuel burning or regression rates as a function of the head-end oxidizer mass flux, G=rho(e)U(e), and the chamber pressure. Furthermore, computation of the full slab burner configuration has also been obtained for various stages of the burn. Comparisons with available experimental data from small scale tests conducted by General Dynamics-Thiokol-Rocketdyne suggest reasonable agreement in the predicted regression rates. Future work will include: (1) a model for soot generation in the flame for more quantitative radiative transfer modelling, (2) a parametric study of combustion efficiency, and (3) transient calculations to help determine the possible mechanisms responsible for combustion instability in hybrid rocket motors.

Venkateswaran,S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

It's Only a Phase: Applying the 5 Phases of Clinical Trials to the NSCR Model Improvement Process

NASA limits astronaut radiation exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer (REID) at the upper 95% confidence level. Since astronauts approach this limit, it is important that the estimate of REID be as accurate as possible. The NASA Space Cancer Risk 2012 (NSCR-2012) model has been the standard for NASA's space radiation protection guidelines since its publication in 2013. The model incorporates elements from U.S. baseline statistics, Japanese atomic bomb survivor research, animal models, cellular studies, and radiation transport to calculate astronaut baseline risk of cancer and REID. The NSCR model is under constant revision to ensure emerging research is incorporated into radiation protection standards. It is important to develop guidelines, however, to determine what new research is appropriate for integration. Certain standards of transparency are necessary in order to assess data quality, statistical quality, and analytical quality. To this effect, all original source code and any raw data used to develop the code are required to confirm there are no errors which significantly change reported outcomes. It is possible to apply a clinical trials approach to select and assess the improvement concepts that will be incorporated into future iterations of NSCR. This poster describes the five phases of clinical trials research, pre-clinical research, and clinical research phases I-IV, explaining how each step can be translated into an appropriate NSCR model selection guideline.

Elgart, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Axisymmetric Two-Dimensional Computation of Magnetic Field Dragging in Accretion Disks

In this paper we model a geometrically thin accretion disk interacting with an externally imposed, uniform, vertical magnetic field. The accretion flow in the disk drags and distorts field lines, amplifying the magnetic field in the process. Inside the disk the radial component of the field is sheared into a toroidal component. The aim of this work is to establish the character of the resultant magnetic field and its dependence on the disk's parameters. We concentrate on alpha-disks driven by turbulent viscosity. Axisymmetric, two-dimensional solutions are obtained without taking into account the back-reaction of the magnetic field on the structure of the disk. The character of the magnetic field depends strongly on the magnitude of the magnetic Prandtl number, P . We present two illustrative examples of viscous disks: a so-called 'standard' steady state model of a disk around a compact star (e.g., cataclysmic variable), and a steady state model of a proto-planetary disk. In both cases, P = 1, P = 10(sup -1), and P = 10(sup -2) scenarios are calculated. Significant bending and magnification of the magnetic field is possible only for disks characterized by P of the order of 10(sup -2). In such a case, the field lines are bent sufficiently to allow the development of a centrifugally driven wind. Inside the disk the field is dominated by its toroidal component. We also investigate the dragging of the magnetic field by a nonviscous protoplanetary disk described by a phenomenological model. This scenario leads to large distortion and magnification of the magnetic field.

Reyes-Ruiz, Mauricio↗
NASA NTRS2018

Coronal Hard X-Ray Sources Revisited

This paper reports on the re-analysis of solar flares in which the hard X-rays (HXRs) come predominantly from the corona rather than from the more usual chromospheric footpoints. All of the 26 previously analyzed event time intervals, over 13 flares, are re-examined for consistency with a flare model in which electrons are accelerated near the top of a magnetic loop which has a sufficiently high density to stop most of the electrons by Coulomb collisions before they can reach the footpoints. Of particular importance in the previous analysis was the finding that the length of the coronal HXR source increased with energy in the 20–30 keV range. However, after allowing for the possibility that footpoint emission at the higher energies affects the inferred length of the coronal HXR source, and using analysis techniques that suppress the possible influence of such footpoint emission, we conclude that there is no longer evidence that the length of the HXR coronal sources increase with increasing energy. In fact, for the six flares and 12 time intervals that satisfied our selection criteria, the loop lengths decreased on average by 1.0 ± 0.2 arcsec between 20 and 30 keV, with a standard deviation of 3.5 arcsec. We find strong evidence that the peak of the coronal HXR source increases in altitude with increasing energy. For the thermal component of the emission, this is consistent with the standard CHSKP flare model in which magnetic reconnection in a coronal current sheet results in new hot loops being formed at progressively higher altitudes. The explanation for the nonthermal emission is not so clear.

Gamma rays↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Radiative Transfer Model for Climate Calculations

This paper describes a radiative transfer model developed to accurately predict the atmospheric radiant flux in both the infrared and the solar spectrum with a minimum of computational effort. We use a newly developed k-distribution model for both the thermal and solar parts of the spectrum. We employ a generalized two-stream approximation for the scattering by aerosol and clouds. To assess the accuracy of the model, the results are compared to other more detailed models for several standard cases in the solar and thermal spectrum. We perform several calculations focussing primarily on the question of absorption of solar radiation by gases and aerosols. We estimate the accuracy of the k-distribution to be approx. 1 W/sq m for the gaseous absorption in the solar spectrum. We estimate the accuracy of the two-stream method to be 3-12 W/sq m for the downward solar flux and 1-5 W/sq m for the upward solar flux at the top of atmosphere depending on the optical depth of the aerosol layer. We also show that the effect of ignoring aerosol absorption on the downward solar flux at the surface is 50 W/sq m for the TARFOX aerosol for an optical depth of 0.5 and 150 W/sq m for a highly absorbing mineral aerosol. Thus, we conclude that the uncertainty introduced by the aerosol solar radiative properties (and merely assuming some "representative" model) can be considerably larger than the error introduced by the use of a two-stream method.

Bergstrom, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The X-Ray Lightcurve of Eta Carinae: Refinement of the Orbit and Evidence for Phase Dependent Mass Loss

We solve the RXTE X-ray lightcurve of the extremely luminous and massive star eta Carinae with a colliding wind emission model to refine the ground-based orbital elements. The sharp decline to X-ray minimum at the end of 1997 fixes the date of the last periastron passage at 1997.95 +/- 0.05, not 1998.13 as derived from ground-based radial velocities. This helps resolve a discrepancy between the ground-based radial velocities and spatially-resolved velocity measures obtained by STIS. The X-ray data are consistent with a mass function f(M) approx. = 1.5, lower than the value f(M) approx. = 7.5 previously reported, so that the masses of eta Carinae and the companion are M(sub eta) greater than or = 80 solar mass and M(sub c) approx. 30 solar mass respectively. In addition the X-ray data suggest that the mass loss rate from eta Carinae is generally less than 3 x 10(exp -4) solar mass/yr, about a factor of 5 lower than that derived from some observations in other wavebands. We could not match the duration of the X-ray minimum with any standard colliding wind model in which the wind is spherically symmetric and the mass loss rate is constant. However we show that we can match the variations around X-ray minimum if we include an increase of a factor of approx. 20 in the mass loss rate from eta Carinae for approximately 80 days following periastron. If real, this excess in M would be the first evidence of enhanced mass flow off the primary when the two stars are close (presumably driven by tidal interactions). Our interpretation of the X-ray data suggest that the ASCA and RXTE X-ray spectra near the X-ray minimum are significantly contaminated by unresolved hard emission (E greater than or = 2 keV) from sonic other nearby source, probably associated with scattering of tile colliding wind emission by circumstellar dust. Based on the X-ray fluxes the distance to n Carinae is 2300 pc with formal uncertainties of only approx. 10%.

Corcoran, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

Wang, Donghai↗
NASA NTRS2001

Electronic Model of a Ferroelectric Field Effect Transistor

A pair of electronic models has been developed of a Ferroelectric Field Effect transistor. These models can be used in standard electrical circuit simulation programs to simulate the main characteristics of the FFET. The models use the Schmitt trigger circuit as a basis for their design. One model uses bipolar junction transistors and one uses MOSFET's. Each model has the main characteristics of the FFET, which are the current hysterisis with different gate voltages and decay of the drain current when the gate voltage is off. The drain current from each model has similar values to an actual FFET that was measured experimentally. T'he input and o Output resistance in the models are also similar to that of the FFET. The models are valid for all frequencies below RF levels. No attempt was made to model the high frequency characteristics of the FFET. Each model can be used to design circuits using FFET's with standard electrical simulation packages. These circuits can be used in designing non-volatile memory circuits and logic circuits and is compatible with all SPICE based circuit analysis programs. The models consist of only standard electrical components, such as BJT's, MOSFET's, diodes, resistors, and capacitors. Each model is compared to the experimental data measured from an actual FFET.

MacLeod, Todd C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Dynamic model with scale-dependent coefficients in the viscous range

The standard dynamic procedure is based on the scale-invariance assumption that the model coefficient C is the same at the grid and test-filter levels. In many applications this condition is not met, e.g. when the filter-length, delta, approaches the Kolmogorov scale, and C(delta approaches eta) approaches O. Using a priori tests, we show that the standard dynamic model yields the coefficient corresponding to the test-filter scale (alpha delta) instead of the grid-scale (delta). Several approaches to account for scale dependence are examined and/or tested in large eddy simulation of isotropic turbulence: (a) take the limit alpha approaches 1; (b) solve for two unknown coefficients C(Delta) and C(alpha delta) in the least-square-error formulation; (c) the 'bi-dynamic model', in which two test-filters (e.g. at scales 2(delta) and 4(delta) are employed to gain additional information on possible scale-dependence of the coefficient, and an improved estimate for the grid-level coefficient is obtained by extrapolation, (d) use theoretical predictions for the ratio C(alpha delta)/C(delta) and dynamically solve for C(delta). None of these options is found to be entirely satisfactory, although the last approach appears applicable to the viscous range.

Meneveau, C.↗