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NASA NTRS2020

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗

NASA NTRS2020

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates Over the Southern Ocean from Atmospheric Reanalyses

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and plays a significant role in the sea-ice mass balance in the polar regions. Over the Southern Ocean, precipitation is particularly uncertain due to the lack of direct observations in this remote and harsh environment. Here we demonstrate that precipitation estimates from 8 global reanalyses produce similar spatial patterns between 2000-2010, although their annual means vary by about 250 mm yr -1 (or 26 percent of the median values) and there is little similarity in their representation of interannual variability. ERA-Interim produces the smallest and CFSR produces the largest amount of precipitation overall. Rainfall and snowfall are partitioned in five reanalyses; snowfall suffers from the same issues as the total precipitation comparison, with ERA-Interim producing about 128 mm less snowfall and JRA-55 about 103 mm more rainfall compared to the other reanalyses. When compared to CloudSat-derived snowfall, these five reanalyses indicate similar spatial patterns, but differ in their magnitude. All reanalyses indicate precipitation on nearly every day of the year, with spurious values occurring on an average of about 60 days yr -1 resulting in an accumulation of about 4.5 mm yr -1 . While similarities in spatial patterns among the reanalyses suggest a convergence, the large spread in magnitudes points to issues with the background models in adequately reproducing precipitation rates, and the differences in the model physics employed. Further improvements to model physics are required to achieve confidence in precipitation rate, as well as the phase and frequency of precipitation in these products.

Linette N. Boisvert↗

NASA NTRS2021

JWST/MIRI Simulated Imaging: Insights into Obscured Star Formation and AGNs for Distant Galaxies in Deep Surveys

The James Webb Space Telescope MIRI instrument will revolutionize extragalactic astronomy with unprecedentedsensitivity and angular resolution in mid-IR. Here we assess the potential of MIRI photometry to constrain galaxyproperties in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science(CEERS)survey. We derive estimated MIRIfluxes fromthe spectral energy distributions(SEDs)of real sources that fall in a planned MIRI pointing. We also obtain MIRIfluxes for hypothetical active galactic nucleus(AGN)–galaxy mixed models varying the AGN fractionalcontribution to the total IR luminosity(fracAGN). Based on these modelfluxes, we simulate CEERS imaging(3.6 hrexposure)in six bands from F770W to F2100W usingMIRISIMand reduce these data usingJWST PIPELINE.Weperform point-spread-function-matched photometry withTPHOTandfit the source SEDs withX-CIGALE,simultaneously modeling photometric redshift and other physical properties. Adding the MIRI data, the accuracyof both redshift and fracAGNis generally improved by factors of2 for all sources atz3. Notably, for pure-galaxy inputs(fracAGN=0), the accuracy of fracAGNis improved by∼100 times thanks to MIRI. The simulatedCEERS MIRI data are slightly more sensitive to AGN detections than the deepest X-ray survey, based on theempiricalLX–L6μmrelation. Like X-ray observations, MIRI can also be used to constrain the AGN accretionpower(accuracy≈0.3 dex). Our work demonstrates that MIRI will be able to place strong constraints on the mid-IR luminosities from star formation and AGNs and thereby facilitate studies of the galaxy/AGN coevolution.

G Yang↗

NASA NTRS2023

Coronado Ecological Conservation: Assessing Vegetation Change Due to Border Wall Construction and Shifting Social Trails

Species monitoring is essential for mitigating the impacts of plant invasion, such as radical changes in an area’s ecosystem, degraded soil health, increased wildfire severity, landslides, and increased flooding. For this project, NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) to investigate invasive species in disturbed lands: specifically, areas affected by off-trail travel and U.S.-Mexico border construction activities. The team assessed how construction has impacted the distribution of Lehmann’s lovegrass and Russian thistle invasives throughout Coronado National Memorial, AZ from 1986-2022. Using data from Landsat 5 and 8, Sentinel-2, NAIP, and PlanetScope, the team computed NDVI, NDMI, MSAVI2, EVI, and Tasseled Cap Wetness, Brightness, and Greenness transformations as vegetation health indicators to input into various machine learning algorithms. To minimize noise, the team conducted Principal Component Analysis on vegetation indices and spectral bands before running k-means clustering and random forest classification algorithms. Between all datasets, the team found that the median area fully overtaken by invasive plants was 5.37% of the park’s total area in 2022. The NPS will use end products to help increase restoration efforts in disturbed areas with high concentrations of invasive plants, and this project can serve as a jumping off point for future invasive species monitoring. The NPS’s collection of ground data for 2022-2023, in conjunction with future data collection, will notably improve the accuracy of classification models, leading to more precise monitoring of invasive species spread over time.

Coronado National Memorial↗

DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of the Milky Way’s thin disc radial metallicity gradient with K2 asteroseismic ages

ABSTRACT The radial metallicity distribution of the Milky Way’s disc is an important observational constraint for models of the formation and evolution of our Galaxy. It informs our understanding of the chemical enrichment of the Galactic disc and the dynamical processes therein, particularly radial migration. We investigate how the metallicity changes with guiding radius in the thin disc using a sample of red giant stars with robust astrometric, spectroscopic, and asteroseismic parameters. Our sample contains 668 stars with guiding radii 4 < Rg < 11 kpc and asteroseismic ages covering the whole history of the thin disc with precision ${\approx} 25 {{\, \rm per\ cent}}$. We use MCMC analysis to measure the gradient and its intrinsic spread in bins of age and construct a hierarchical Bayesian model to investigate the evolution of these parameters independently of the bins. We find a smooth evolution of the gradient from ≈−0.07 dex kpc−1 in the youngest stars to ≈−0.04 dex kpc−1 in stars older than 10 Gyr, with no break at intermediate ages. Our results are consistent with those based on asteroseismic ages from CoRoT, with that found in Cepheid variables for stars younger than 1 Gyr, and with open clusters for stars younger than 6 Gyr. For older stars we find a significantly lower metallicity in our sample than in the clusters, suggesting a survival bias favouring more metal-rich clusters. We also find that the chemical evolution model of Chiappini '09 is too metal poor in the early stages of disc formation. Our results provide strong new constraints for the growth and enrichment of the thin disc and radial migration, which will facilitate new tests of model conditions and physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Optimization of the performance of a tandem microchannel plate detector as a function of interplate spacing and voltage

The effect of varying the size of the gap voltage and spacing on the performance of a tandem pair of microchannel plates (MCP) is investigated. Results show that increasing the voltage in the gap increases the gain of the pair and also produces a narrower Gaussian pulse-height distribution, although beyond a critical voltage the gain of the channel plate pair is found to plateau. A model is developed which explains the nonlinear gain behavior of individual microchannels and the behavior of the electron cloud emitted from the first MCP as it spreads out between the two MCPs and hits the surface of the second. The model calculates the plateau voltage as a function of the gap size, the gain of each MCP, and the diameter of the channels, and is found to show good agreement with the observed results. It is concluded that interplate gaps of up to several millimeters can be accommodated without a significant degradation in pulse-height distribution.

Rogers, D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

High-Resolution Modeling of the Predictability of Convective Systems, and Influences by Absorbing Aerosols Over Northern India and the Himalayas Foothills During Boreal Summer

The Himalayas foothills region (HFR) is an important component of the South Asian monsoon. To the south, the HFR borders the fertile, populous, and heavily polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). To the north, it rises to great height (approx. 4-5 km) to the Tibetan Plateau over a distance of less than 100 km. The HFR itself consists of complex mountainous terrain, with strong orographic forcing for precipitation. During the late spring and early summer, dust aerosol from the Thar and Middle East deserts , as well as moisture from the Arabian Sea were transported to the western part of the western part of the IGP and foothills spurs pre-monsoon severe thunderstorm over the region. During the monsoon season (mid June -August) convection from the Bay of Bengal, spread along the foothills northwestward to northern Pakistan. Recent climate model studies and preliminary observations have indicted not only the importance of dynamical forcing of precipitation in the HFR, but also possible strong impacts by the dense aerosols, from both local sources, and remote transport, that blanket the IGP from late spring up to the onset of the monsoon in June, and during monsoon breaks in July. In this work, we use the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (Nu-WRF) model to study the predictability ( 1-7 days) South Asian monsoon rainfall system. Results of 7 -day forecast experiments using an embedded domain of 27 km and 9 km resolution were conducted for the period June 11- July 15, 2008, with and without aerosol forcing are carried out to assess the intrinsic predictability of rainfall over the HFR, and possible impacts by aerosol direct effect, and possible connection of large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Deception Detection Model Robustness To Linguistic Variation

With the increasing use of automated, machine learning-driven tools and the downstream impact that algorithmic judgements can have, it is critical to develop models that are robust to evolving or manipulated inputs. Evaluating the reliability of multimodal models across linguistic variations to understand model susceptibility to intentional linguistic adversarial attacks as well as natural linguistic variations is essential in this pursuit. We present extensive analysis of model robustness and susceptibility to linguistic variations in the setting of deceptive news detection, a difficult classification task that is an increasingly important problem to solve with the impact of misinformation spread online. We evaluate the effectiveness of incorporating adversarial defense strategies and measure model susceptibility to state-of-the-art adversarial attacks using two types of linguistic attacks — character and word perturbations. We consider two multiclass prediction tasks — a 3-way classification of tweets as trustworthy, propaganda, or disinformation; and a 4-way classification as clickbait, hoax, satire, or conspiracy — and compare the performance of three embeddings that have been state-of-the-art for several NLP tasks — GloVe, ELMo, and BERT — to highlight consistent trends in susceptibility, high confidence misclassifications, and high impact failures. We find that character or mixed ensemble models are the most effective defense mechanisms and that character perturbations are a more effective attack than word perturbations for deception classification.

adversarial evaluation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pluminate: Quantifying aerosol injection behavior from simulation, experimentation and observations

Marine aerosol injections are a key component in further understanding of both the potentials of deliberate injection for marine cloud brightening (MCB), a potential climate intervention (CI) strategy, and key aerosol-cloud interaction behaviors that currently form the largest uncertainty in global climate model (GCM) predictions of our climate. Since the rate of spread of aerosols in a marine environment directly translates to the effectiveness and ability of aerosol injections in impacting cloud radiative forcing, it is crucial to understand the spatial and temporal extent of injected-aerosol effects following direct injection into marine environments. The ubiquity of ship-injected aerosol tracks from satellite imagery renders observational validation of new parameterizations possible in 2D, however, 3D compatible data is more scarce, and necessary for the development of subgrid scale parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions in GCMs. This report introduces two novel parameterizations of atmospheric aerosol injection behavior suitable for both 3D (GCM-compatible) and 2D (observation-related) modeling. Their applicability is highlighted using a wealth of different observational data: small and larger scale salt-aerosol injection experiments conducted at SNL, 3D large eddy simulations of ship-injected aerosol tracks and 2D satellite images of ship tracks. The power of experimental data in enhancing knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions is in particular emphasized by studying key aerosol microphysical and optical properties as observed through their mixing in cloud-like environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

EUPDF: Eulerian Monte Carlo Probability Density Function Solver for Applications With Parallel Computing, Unstructured Grids, and Sprays

The success of any solution methodology used in the study of gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model the various complex and rate controlling processes associated with the spray's turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation, and spreading rates, as well as convective and radiative heat transfer and other phenomena. The phenomena to be modeled, which are controlled by these processes, often strongly interact with each other at different times and locations. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. The influence of turbulence in a diffusion flame manifests itself in several forms, ranging from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime to the distributed combustion regime, depending upon how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. Conventional turbulence models have difficulty treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the composition joint probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices (such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions) because it can account for nonlinear chemical reaction rates without making approximations. In an attempt to advance the state-of-the-art in multidimensional numerical methods, we at the NASA Lewis Research Center extended our previous work on the PDF method to unstructured grids, parallel computing, and sprays. EUPDF, which was developed by M.S. Raju of Nyma, Inc., was designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase and/or spray solvers. EUPDF can use an unstructured mesh with mixed triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral elements. The application of the PDF method showed favorable results when applied to several supersonic-diffusion flames and spray flames. The EUPDF source code will be available with the National Combustion Code (NCC) as a complete package.

Raju, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Pure Marine Aerosol Model, for Use in Remote Sensing Applications

Retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and related parameters from satellite measurements typically involve prescribed models of aerosol size and composition, and are therefore dependent on how well these models are able to represent the radiative behaviour of real aerosols, This study uses aerosol volume size distributions retrieved from Sun-photometer measurements at 11 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) island sites, spread throughout the world's oceans, as a basis to define such a model for unpolluted maritime aerosols. Size distributions are observed to be bimodal and approximately lognormal, although the coarse mode is skewed with a long tail on the low-radius end, The relationship of AOD and size distribution parameters to meteorological conditions is also examined, As wind speed increases, so do coarse-mode volume and radius, The AOD and Angstrom exponent (alpha) show linear relationships with wind speed, although there is considerable scatter in all these relationships, limiting their predictive power. Links between aerosol properties and near-surface relative humidity, columnar water vapor, and sea surface temperature are also explored. A recommended bimodal maritime model, which is able to reconstruct the AERONET AOD with accuracy of order 0.01-0.02, is presented for use in aerosol remote sensing applications. This accuracy holds at most sites and for wavelengths between 340 nm and 1020 nm. Calculated lidar ratios are also provided, and differ significantly from those currently used in Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) processing.

Sayer, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Noise from Supersonic Coaxial Jets: Mean Flow Predictions - Part 1

Recent theories for supersonic jet noise have used an instability wave noise generation model to predict radiated noise. This model requires a known mean flow that has typically been described by simple analytic functions for single jet mean flows. The mean flow of supersonic coaxial jets is not described easily in terms of analytic functions. To provide these profiles at all axial locations, a numerical scheme is developed to calculate the mean flow properties of a coaxial jet. The Reynolds-averaged, compressible, parabolic boundary layer equations are solved using a mixing length turbulence model. Empirical correlations are developed to account for the effects of velocity and temperature ratios and Mach number on the shear layer spreading. Both normal velocity profile and inverted velocity profile coaxial jets are considered. The mixing length model is modified in each case to obtain reasonable results when the two stream jet merges into a single fully developed jet. The mean flow calculations show both good qualitative and quantitative agreement with measurements in single and coaxial jet flows.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

DOE OSTI2012

Hot-electron production and suprathermal heat flux scaling with laser intensity from the two-plasmon-decay instability

The fully kinetic reduced-description particle-in-cell (RPIC) method has been applied to simulations of two-plasmon-decay (TPD) instability, driven by crossed laser beams, in an inhomogeneous plasma for parameters consistent with recent direct-drive experiments related to laser-driven inertial fusion. The nonlinear saturated state is characterized by very spiky electric fields, with Langmuir cavitation occurring preferentially inside density channels produced by the ponderomotive beating of the crossed laser beams and the primary TPD Langmuir waves (LWs). The heated electron distribution function is, in all cases, bi-Maxwellian, with instantaneous hot-electron temperatures in the range 60-100 keV. The net hot-electron energy flux out of the system is a small fraction ({approx}1% to 2%) of the input laser intensity in these simulations. Scalings of the hot-electron temperature and suprathermal heat flux as functions of the laser intensity are obtained numerically from RPIC simulations. These simulations lead to the preliminary conclusion that Langmuir cavitation and collapse provide dissipation by producing suprathermal electrons, which stabilize the system in saturation and drive the LW spectrum to the small dissipation scales at the Landau cutoff. The Langmuir turbulence originates at an electron density 0.241 Multiplication-Sign the laser's critical density, where the crossed laser beams excite a 'triad' mode-a common forward LW plus a pair of backward LWs. Remnants of this 'triad' evolve in k-space and dominate the time-averaged energy spectrum. At times exceeding 10 ps, the excited Langmuir turbulence spreads toward lower densities. Comparisons of RPIC simulations with the extended Zakharov model are presented in appropriate regimes, and the necessary requirements for the validity of a quasi-linear Zakharov model (where the spatially averaged electron-velocity distribution is evolved) are verified by RPIC simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Mathematical models for cochannel interference in FH/MFSK multiple-access systems

FH/MFSK has been proposed for a multiuser spread spectrum digital communication system to combat both self-jamming and intentional jamming. An independence assumption at the energy detector outputs is used to evaluate such a system for a digitized voice mobile radio system (Yue, 1981). This paper presents a correlated model and compares its performance to an independence model under the symbol error probability criterion. A Gaussian process model is also developed for comparison. It is found that the conventional Gaussian approximation is inadequate in predicting the number of users that can be accommodated by an FH/MFSK system using the conventional receiver. Furthermore, for the cases evaluated, the independence model provides an excellent approximation to the correlated model. Additionally, a conditional Chernoff bound is presented for the more general case of frequency-hopping systems with multiple hops per symbol.

Yan, T.-Y.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of the indoor far-field aerosol transmission in a model commercial office building

As businesses gradually reopen and employees return to work, the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants through airborne transmission via the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems of commercial building raises concerns. Since the general practice in commercial buildings is to use low-efficiency air filters and given that indoor air is generally recycled, the degree to which cross-zone aerosol transmission occurs is of interest. To quantify the cross-zone aerosol transmission, experiments were conducted using a synthetic test aerosol in the five zones on the first floor of a model commercial office building at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Because the synthetic aerosol was tagged with fluorescent salt, the aerosol generated from the source zone can be distinguished from the background aerosols due to its unique fluorescent signal. Data from cross-zone campaigns showed that submicron-aerosol transmission was higher than the micron aerosols. In campaigns with doors closed, the submicron aerosol transmission was less than 16% and less than 11% for micron aerosol transmission. Finally, opening the interior doors that connecting different zones can significantly enhance the aerosol transmission for zones at the close proximity to the source, but has less impact on those farther away.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

High quantum efficiency photocathode simulation for the investigation of novel structured designs

A computer model in CST Studio Suite has been developed to evaluate several novel geometrically enhanced photocathode designs. This work was aimed at identifying a structure that would increase the total electron yield by a factor of two or greater in the 1–30 keV range. The modeling software was used to simulate the electric field and generate particle tracking for several potential structures. The final photocathode structure has been tailored to meet a set of detector performance requirements, namely, a spatial resolution of <40 μm and a temporal spread of 1–10 ps. We present the details of the geometrically enhanced photocathode model and resulting static field and electron emission characteristics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗