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At least 937 records · Page 52

Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Wind Energy Instrumentation Development Roadmap

The current instrumentation for observing the complex flow fields in and around wind plants struggles to match the fidelity of existing simulation tools. As a result, these measurement limitations create a hurdle for validating and assessing the quality of the wind plant numerical models. This roadmap for instrumentation development recommendations was created to offer guidance on narrowing the gap between measurement and simulation fidelity. A process was established to identify where gaps in instrumentation exist for wind energy test campaigns by analyzing the capabilities of instrumentation for capturing the various important phenomena at the necessary resolution for both the science goal and validation objectives. To this end, a multi-disciplinary team of experts on instrumentation, wind energy, and atmospheric science was assembled to identify these significant instrumentation needs. A recommendation for instrumentation to be developed is provided, and the framework developed through this process is expected to be useful to the design of future test campaigns. The mapping tools developed for this process will be distributed as part of a future International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program task on instrumentation development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Phosphorus out-diffusion in laser molten silicon

Laser doping via liquid phase diffusion enables the formation of defect free pn junctions and a tailoring of diffusion profiles by varying the laser pulse energy density and the overlap of laser pulses. We irradiate phosphorus diffused 100 oriented p-type float zone silicon wafers with a 5 μm wide line focused 6.5 ns pulsed frequency doubled Nd:YVO{sub 4} laser beam, using a pulse to pulse overlap of 40%. By varying the number of laser scans N{sub s} = 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 40 at constant pulse energy density H = 1.3 J/cm{sup 2} and H = 0.79 J/cm{sup 2} we examine the out-diffusion of phosphorus atoms performing secondary ion mass spectroscopy concentration measurements. Phosphorus doping profiles are calculated by using a numerical simulation tool. The tool models laser induced melting and re-solidification of silicon as well as the out-diffusion of phosphorus atoms in liquid silicon during laser irradiation. We investigate the observed out-diffusion process by comparing simulations with experimental concentration measurements. The result is a pulse energy density independent phosphorus out-diffusion velocity v{sub out} = 9 ± 1 cm/s in liquid silicon, a partition coefficient of phosphorus 1 < k{sub p} < 1.1 and a diffusion coefficient D = 1.4(±0.2)cm{sup 2}/s × 10{sup −3 }× exp[−183 meV/(k{sub B}T)].

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Analysis of the microbunching instability in a mid-energy electron linac

Microbunching instability usually exists in the linear accelerator (linac) of a free electron laser (FEL) facility. If it is not controlled effectively, the beam quality will be damaged seriously and the machine will not operate properly. In the electron linac of a soft X-ray FEL device, because the electron energy is not very high, the problem can become even more serious. As a typical example, the microbunching instability in the linac of the proposed Shanghai Soft X-ray Free Electron Laser facility (SXFEL) is investigated in detail by means of both analytical formulae and simulation tools. In the study, a new mechanism introducing random noise into the beam current profile as the beam passes through a chicane-type bunch compressor is proposed. The higher-order modes that appear in the simulations suggest that further improvement of the current theoretical model of the instability is needed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

SUMMIT v2.1 Summary Report

Standard Unified Modeling Mapping and Integration Toolkit (SUMMIT) is a software capability developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the direction and funding of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Science and Technology Directorate (S&T). SUMMIT is a scalable platform technology for linking together “best-in-class” models, data, and simulation tools to enable analysts, emergency planners and incident managers to more effectively, economically, and rapidly prepare, analyze, train, and respond to real or potential incidents. The SUMMIT software architecture was created under the Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) Project and was motivated by the issuance of Homeland Security Presidential Directive 8 (HSPD-8) which called for continuous improvement of our Nation’s preparedness to respond to catastrophic events. Furthermore, a state-of-the-art training and exercise facility called the National Exercise Simulation Center (NESC) was established within the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) headquarters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗

Development Status of Powered Descent for High-Mass Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Systems

Retropropulsion, initiated at supersonic conditions, provides both deceleration and control authority as an enabling capability for the delivery of human-scale payloads to the surface of Mars. There are no other presently viable approaches to the descent phase of flight for vehicles of such scales. NASA continues to dedicate investment in the maturation of powered descent in atmospheric environments, for the express application to large-scale entry, descent, and landing systems. Efforts focus on parametric, subscale, inert gas ground testing, rigorous validation of computational modeling approaches against these data, and the implementation of highly efficient, scalable simulation tools. This paper summarizes the current maturity of retropropulsion in a free-flight, atmospheric environment for vehicles with significant aerodynamic surface area, as well as the current status of efforts within NASA for ground testing, computational simulation, and flight testing.

Mars↗

Development Status of Powered Descent for High-Mass Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Systems

Retropropulsion, initiated at supersonic conditions, provides both deceleration and control authority as an enabling capability for the delivery of human-scale payloads to the surface of Mars. There are no other presently viable approaches to the descent phase of flight for vehicles of such scales. NASA continues to dedicate investment in the maturation of powered descent in atmospheric environments, for the express application to large-scale entry, descent, and landing systems. Efforts focus on parametric, subscale, inert gas ground testing, rigorous validation of computational modeling approaches against these data, and the implementation of highly efficient, scalable simulation tools. This paper summarizes the current maturity of retropropulsion in a free-flight, atmospheric environment for vehicles with significant aerodynamic surface area, as well as the current status of efforts within NASA for ground testing, computational simulation, and flight testing.

Ashley Korzun↗

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems using MOOSE

As an increasing number of companies look toward commercial Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) designs, there is a pressing need to understand the physics of thick-wall chamber gas dynamics. The thick liquid wall approach implements a renewable wall to mitigate the fusion target emissions, thereby reducing the radiation damage rate and significantly extending the lifetime of chamber structures, leading to increased plant availability and reduced waste streams in comparison to dry wall chamber designs. It is necessary, however, to assess the critical performance and safety aspects of these systems. For example, it is crucial to predict (1) where the mass ablated from the liquid walls will vent, which determines the placement of condensing surfaces; (2) debris propagation up the beam lines, which provides essential information for design and protection requirements; (3) peak pressures and impulse on chamber walls, which affect chamber structural design; and (4) momentum transfer to the liquid jets, which constrains the shape and positioning of the jets. In turn, the chamber design and its liquid walls affect shielding requirements, material activation, and tritium fuel cycle. Currently available simulation tools, however, are unable to accurately capture key thick-wall chamber dynamics. Significant assumptions are often made to simplify the system and reduce computational cost and modeling capability needs, but the impact of these assumptions on simulation predictions has not been evaluated. For example, no three-dimensional simulations can be found in the open literature to evaluate gas venting and momentum transfer to the jets with simulations using two-dimensional domains to represent complex three-dimensional geometries. Moreover, limited studies have been dedicated to jet breakup due to both turbulence and neutron heating, and no studies have been found that evaluate how jet breakup can impact shock-jet interaction. Furthermore, effects of radiative heat transfer have rarely been included for the hydrodynamic phase of shock propagation, and integration of proper equations of state in shock dynamics codes has been mostly exploratory. In this study, we use the flexible, high-fidelity Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to model these complex phenomena and inform design and safety studies. Capabilities to model thick-wall chamber gas dynamics are being developed, and the impact of the assumptions listed above (i.e., two-dimensional vs three-dimensional, absence of jet breakout, no radiative heat transfer, and ideal gas behavior) are being quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems Using MOOSE-based Multiphysics Simulations

As an increasing number of companies look toward commercial Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) designs, there is a pressing need to understand the physics of thick-wall chamber gas dynamics. The thick liquid wall approach implements a renewable wall to mitigate the fusion target emissions, thereby reducing the radiation damage rate and significantly extending the lifetime of chamber structures, leading to increased plant availability and reduced waste streams in comparison to dry wall chamber designs. It is necessary, however, to assess the critical performance and safety aspects of these systems. For example, it is crucial to predict (1) where the mass ablated from the liquid walls will vent, which determines the placement of condensing surfaces; (2) debris propagation up the beam lines, which provides essential information for design and protection requirements; (3) peak pressures and impulse on chamber walls, which affect chamber structural design; and (4) momentum transfer to the liquid jets, which constrains the shape and positioning of the jets. In turn, the chamber design and its liquid walls affect shielding requirements, material activation, and tritium fuel cycle. Currently available simulation tools, however, are unable to accurately capture key thick-wall chamber dynamics. Significant assumptions are often made to simplify the system and reduce computational cost and modeling capability needs, but the impact of these assumptions on simulation predictions has not been evaluated. For example, no three-dimensional simulations can be found in the open literature to evaluate gas venting and momentum transfer to the jets with simulations using two-dimensional domains to represent complex three-dimensional geometries. Moreover, limited studies have been dedicated to jet breakup due to both turbulence and neutron heating, and no studies have been found that evaluate how jet breakup can impact shock-jet interaction. Furthermore, effects of radiative heat transfer have rarely been included for the hydrodynamic phase of shock propagation, and integration of proper equations of state in shock dynamics codes has been mostly exploratory. In this study, we use the flexible, high-fidelity Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to model these complex phenomena and inform design and safety studies. Capabilities to model thick-wall chamber gas dynamics are being developed, and the impact of the assumptions listed above (i.e., two-dimensional vs three-dimensional, absence of jet breakout, no radiative heat transfer, and ideal gas behavior) are being quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SCALE depletion capabilities for molten salt reactors and other liquid-fueled systems

Nuclear reactor systems that use fuel dissolved in a liquid have the potential for enhanced safety characteristics, improved fuel-cycle outcomes, and more efficient isotope-production configurations. In these reactor systems, the fueled liquid may simultaneously undergo irradiation, physical and chemical removal processes, and fueling. The modeling and simulation of this transmutation and decay with material additions and removals is an ongoing research area. An accurate simulation tool is critical to the reactor and fuel-cycle design, reactor deployment, and source-term characterization for these advanced reactor systems. The work described herein involved implementing, testing, and applying the capability to perform reactor physics simulations within the Oak Ridge National Laboratory-developed SCALE suite for nuclear systems analyses and design, leveraging much of its pedigree in quality-assurance and reactor-analysis capabilities. The functionalities to simulate irradiation with material feeds and removals had been added in ORIGEN, and the TRITON reactor physics sequence was extended to calculate the total removed material and track external nonirradiated mixtures to estimate separate processing or waste streams. Results from these capabilities align with analytical expectations obtained from ORIGEN for simplified test cases and with expectations for a molten salt reactor application. This implementation, available with the SCALE 6.3 release, provides for a more efficient and accurate material accountability methodology, allowing for the characterization, design, and analysis of the complete isotopic material inventory of advanced liquid-fueled systems for a variety of applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A novel approach for selecting typical hot-year (THY) weather data

The global climate change has resulted in not only warmer climate conditions but also more frequent extreme weather events, such as heat waves. However, the impact of heat waves on the indoor environment has been investigated in a limited manner. In this research, the indoor thermal environment is analyzed using a building performance simulation tool for a typical residential building in multiple cities in China, over a time period of 60 years using actual measured weather data, in order to gain a better understanding of the effect of heat wave events. The simulation results were used to analyze the indoor environment during hot summers. A new kind of weather data referred to as the typical hot year was defined and selected based on the simulated indoor environment during heat waves. The typical hot-year weather data can be used to simulate the indoor environment during extreme heat events and for the evaluation of effective technologies and strategies to mitigate against the impact of heat waves on the energy demand of buildings and human health. The limitations of the current study and future work are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison of thermal zone aggregation methods

The impact of increasing energy prices on building operation budgets has fueled demand for more energy-efficient structures. Existing building energy simulation tools generate an immense amount of data yet comparatively little knowledge. This paper introduces a framework that allows aggregation-based model reduction to operate on geometric building information models. The resulting aggregation sequence provides designers with faster simulations and affords insight into complex multi-scale thermal interactions. A comparison of the trade-off between simulation speed and accuracy for three hierarchical cluster partitioning methods concludes the discussion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of Turbulent Combustion Models for Simulating Prechamber Ignition in a Natural Gas Engine

Lean combustion is a promising strategy to increase thermal efficiency in an internal combustion engine, by exploiting a favorable specific heat ratio of the fresh mixture while simultaneously suppressing the heat losses to the cylinder wall. However, unstable ignition and slow flame propagation at fuel-lean conditions lead to large cycle-to-cycle variability and limit the high-efficiency engine operating range. Prechamber ignition is considered an effective concept to extend the lean operating limit, by providing spatially distributed ignition with multiple turbulent flame-jets and enabling a faster combustion rate compared to the conventional spark ignition approach. From a numerical modeling standpoint to date science base and available simulation tools are inadequate to properly understand and predict the combustion processes in prechamber ignited engines. In this paper, conceptually different Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) combustion models widely adopted in the engine modeling community are used to simulate the ignition and combustion processes in a medium-duty natural gas engine with a prechamber spark-ignition system. Here, a flamelet-based turbulent combustion model, i.e., G-equation, and a multizone well-stirred reactor model are employed for this modeling study. Simulation results are compared with experimental data in terms of in-cylinder pressure and heat release rate. Finally, the analysis of the performance of the two models is carried out to highlight the strengths and limitations of the two evaluated approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MO-FG-CAMPUS-IeP1-02: Dose Reduction in Contrast-Enhanced Digital Mammography Using a Photon-Counting Detector

Purpose: Photon-counting detectors (PCDs) allow multi-energy X-ray imaging without additional exposures and spectral overlap. This capability results in the improvement of accuracy of material decomposition for dual-energy X-ray imaging and the reduction of radiation dose. In this study, the PCD-based contrast-enhanced dual-energy mammography (CEDM) was compared with the conventional CDEM in terms of radiation dose, image quality and accuracy of material decomposition. Methods: A dual-energy model was designed by using Beer-Lambert’s law and rational inverse fitting function for decomposing materials from a polychromatic X-ray source. A cadmium zinc telluride (CZT)-based PCD, which has five energy thresholds, and iodine solutions included in a 3D half-cylindrical phantom, which composed of 50% glandular and 50% adipose tissues, were simulated by using a Monte Carlo simulation tool. The low- and high-energy images were obtained in accordance with the clinical exposure conditions for the conventional CDEM. Energy bins of 20–33 and 34–50 keV were defined from X-ray energy spectra simulated at 50 kVp with different dose levels for implementing the PCD-based CDEM. The dual-energy mammographic techniques were compared by means of absorbed dose, noise property and normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE). Results: Comparing to the conventional CEDM, the iodine solutions were clearly decomposed for the PCD-based CEDM. Although the radiation dose for the PCD-based CDEM was lower than that for the conventional CEDM, the PCD-based CDEM improved the noise property and accuracy of decomposition images. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that the PCD-based CDEM allows the quantitative material decomposition, and reduces radiation dose in comparison with the conventional CDEM. Therefore, the PCD-based CDEM is able to provide useful information for detecting breast tumor and enhancing diagnostic accuracy in mammography.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Resolution Simulations of Geological CO 2 Injection: Application to the SPE11 Benchmark

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) will play a critical role in decarbonization and in facilitating the transition to clean energy systems. Because CO 2 is highly mobile, ensuring its safe and permanent injection into subsurface geological formations involves monitoring over larger spatial domains and longer time periods than is typical for hydrocarbon reservoirs. This can benefit from simulation tools capable of modeling key CO 2 trapping mechanisms, particularly those optimized for speed and scalability on high-performance computing systems. Using isothermal versions of the SPE11B and SPE11C benchmark cases, we conduct a mesh refinement study simulating CO 2 injection into kilometer-scale rock formations at centimeter resolution with the GEOS open-source simulation framework. We focus on how mesh refinement improves the accuracy of convective mixing in both 2D and 3D simulations. The computational costs associated with achieving a converged solution highlight the need for predictive upscaling techniques. A systematic performance scaling analysis—including both central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) architectures—complements the “Results” section.

Geosciences↗