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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Seismic DAS Observations of a large underground chemical explosion in dry tuff

On 18 October 2023 a 16.3-ton TNT equivalent chemical explosion was detonated underground at the Nevada National Security Site, generating a seismic event (Meyers et al., 2024). The associated seismic wavefield was measured on a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array with slant range distances from 27 m – 1123 m. The first arriving phase traveled at an apparent velocity of about 2640 m s -1 from 27 m to 420 m slant range and about 2470 m s -1 from 505 m to 1123 m slant range according to the first arrival moveouts on the DAS data. The first arrival from the explosion temporarily saturated the cable from a slant range of 27 m – 186 m and 0.009 s to 0.084 s post detonation. From 186 m slant range to 420 m slant range, peak strain rates of 5.6 x 10 6 nm m -1 s -1 were observed for the first arrival phase. For the first arrival from 505 m slant range to 1123 m slant range, peak strain rates reduced to 8.0 x 10 4 nm m -1 s -1 . A comparison of the scaled accelerations computed from DAS, the geophone pairs, and the measurements of co-located accelerometer pairs show common agreement at the scaled ranges of the single point sensors. This study adds to the body of work reporting near-source DAS observations of the seismic wavefields generated by underground chemical explosions. These results indicate that near-source DAS observations can refine interpretations of phase identification from single-point sensor observations. Phase identification could be one mechanism that contributes scatter to single point seismic measurements which would confound the performance of empirical relationships for small explosions. Removing that mechanism may therefore reduce interstation variability and increase empirical relationship performance for small explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seismic DAS observations of a large underground chemical explosion in dry tuff

On 18 October 2023 a 16.3-ton TNT equivalent chemical explosion was detonated underground at the Nevada National Security Site, generating a seismic event with a magnitude of 1.7 (Meyers et al., 2024). The associated seismic wavefield was measured on a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array with slant range distances from 27 m – 1123 m. The first arriving phase traveled at an apparent velocity of about 2640 m s -1 from 27 m to 420 m slant range and about 2470 m s -1 from 505 m to 1123 m slant range according to the first arrival moveouts on the DAS data. The first arrival from the explosion temporarily saturated the cable from a slant range of 27 m – 186 m and 0.009 s to 0.084 s post detonation. From 186 m slant range to 420 m slant range, peak strain rates of 5.6 x 10 6 nm m -1 s -1 were observed for the first arrival phase. For the first arrival from 505 m slant range to 1123 m slant range, peak strain rates reduced to 8.0 x 104 nm m -1 s -1 . A comparison of the scaled accelerations computed from DAS, the geophone pairs, and the measurements of co-located accelerometer pairs show common agreement at the scaled ranges of the single point sensors. This study adds to the body of work reporting near-source DAS observations of the seismic wavefields generated by underground chemical explosions. These results indicate that near-source DAS observations can refine interpretations of phase identification from single-point sensor observations. Phase identification could be one mechanism that contributes scatter to single point seismic measurements which would confound the performance of empirical relationships for small explosions. Removing that mechanism may therefore reduce interstation variability and increase empirical relationship performance for small explosions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extended Low Load Boiler Operation to Improve Performance and Economics of an Existing Coal Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The overall goal is to improve the performance and economics of existing coal fired power plants by extending low load boiler operation to lower loads than is currently achievable. The objective of this program is to develop and validate sensor hardware and analytical algorithms to lower plant operating expenses (OPEX) for the currently operating pulverized coal utility boiler fleet. Coal fired utility boilers are increasingly under grid dispatch pressure. In some cases, the coal fired cost of generation is noncompetitive with respect to natural gas generation and subsidized renewable sources. To remain profitable and remain fully compliant with existing environmental regulations, the installed coal fired fleet must find technologies which allow it to move into a more flexible cyclic load dispatch model. Today the installed coal fired utility fleet must be cost of generation competitive, fully emissions compliant, and responsive to the variability inherent in renewable energy generation sources. In the Phase I of the project, GE Steam Power, Inc. (GE) performed modeling of different operating scenarios for low load operation using an existing full plant dynamic model developed for a 660MW steam power plant. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable a stable and steady coal supply for low load pulverizer operation were identified and tested at the Pulverizer Development Facility (PDF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center in Bloomfield, Connecticut. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable stable combustion for low load operation were identified and tested at the 15 MWth Industrial Scale Burner facility (ISBF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center. A concept was developed to test the sensors and control algorithms, down selected after testing, at a full-scale coal fired power plant. A budget estimate was then developed, and the concept was implemented at an existing utility power plant. The specific objectives of the experimental work were to: • Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for monitoring coal pulverizer operation at lower loads to provide stable operation and appropriate coal fineness at lower coal throughput; Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for a Boiler Flame Stability Monitor to better balance air and fuel at each burner. This enables a reduction in a coal boiler’s safe low load power level while maintaining stable flame characteristics; Develop a concept in Phase I for low load operation of a full-scale power plant and develop a budget estimate for testing and execute the test plan at an existing plant in Phase II; Validate the capability of the extended low load boiler system to extend the minimum load operating point in a safe and reliable manner on an existing full-scale utility boiler. At the completion of this experimental study, GE has developed a set of sensors and analytic algorithms, down selected after testing, that have the potential to enable safe low load operation of a utility boiler. GE has also identified a host site for testing these identified sensors and analytic algorithms. GE has generated a full set of deliverables that provide sufficient information to proceed with the next step of testing at a host site. This includes a potential host site and budget estimate for concept testing at host site. In the Phase II of the project, a series of field tests were completed to validate the extended low load boiler operation, which consisted of detailed engineering, installation, commissioning, and testing the additional sensors and analytics for the coal-fired combustion system on an existing full-scale utility boiler. The optimization work has been supported by the host plant and endorsed by their engineering and operation staff.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Propellant Mass Gauging in a Spherical Tank under Micro-Gravity Conditions Using Capacitance Plate Arrays and Machine Learning

Propellant mass gauging under micro-gravity conditions is a challenging task due to the unpredictable position and shape of the fuel body inside the tank. Micro-gravity conditions are common for orbiting satellites and rockets that operate on limited fuel supplies. Capacitance sensors have been investigated for this task in recent years; however, the effect of various positions and shapes of the fuel body is not analyzed in detail. In this paper, we investigate this with various fill types, such as annular, core-annular, and stratified fills at different positions. We compare the performance among several curve-fitting-based approaches and a machine-learning-based approach, the latter of which offers superior performance in estimating the fuel content.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Online and Offline Identification of False Data Injection Attacks in Battery Sensors Using a Single Particle Model

The cells in battery energy storage systems are monitored, protected, and controlled by battery management systems whose sensors are susceptible to cyberattacks. False data injection attacks (FDIAs) targeting batteries’ voltage sensors affect cell protection functions and the estimation of critical battery states like the state of charge (SoC). Inaccurate SoC estimation could result in battery overcharging and over discharging, which can have disastrous consequences on grid operations. This paper proposes a three-pronged online and offline method to detect, identify, and classify FDIAs corrupting the voltage sensors of a battery stack. To accurately model the dynamics of the series-connected cells a single particle model is used and to estimate the SoC, the unscented Kalman filter is employed. FDIA detection, identification, and classification was accomplished using a tuned cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm, which was compared with a baseline method, the chi-squared error detector. Online simulations and offline batch simulations were performed to determine the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Throughout the batch simulations, the CUSUM algorithm detected attacks, with no false positives, in 99.83% of cases, identified the corrupted sensor in 97% of cases, and determined if the attack was positively or negatively biased in 97% of cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotopic fractionation as in-situ sensor of subsurface reactive flow and precursor for rock failure

Greater utilization of subsurface reservoirs perturbs in-situ chemical-mechanical conditions with wide ranging consequences from decreased performance to project failure. Understanding the chemical precursors to rock deformation is critical to reducing the risks of these activities. To address this need, we investigated the coupled flow-dissolution- precipitation-adsorption reactions involving calcite and environmentally-relevant solid phases. Experimentally, we quantified (1) stable isotope fractionation processes for strontium during calcite nucleation and growth, and during reactive fluid flow; (2) consolidation behavior of calcite assemblages in the common brines. Numerically, we quantified water weakening of calcite using molecular dynamics simulations; and quantified the impact of calcite dissolution rate on macroscopic fracturing using finite element models. With microfluidic experiments and modeling, we show the effect of local flow fields on the dissolution kinetics of calcite. Taken together across a wide range of scales and methods, our studies allow us to separate the effects of reaction, flow, and transport, on calcite fracturing and the evolution of strontium isotopic signatures in the reactive fluids.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Irradiation Results of Commercial Neutron and Gamma Sensors at the Ohio State University Research Reactor

This report serves to present the evaluation results of commercial radiation detectors (SPNDs) with the potential to accomplish the data objectives—having sufficient gamma and fast neutron sensitivity—at temperatures near 650°C. The detectors chosen for evaluation are gamma ion chambers from Exosens (previously known as Photonis) models CRGA11 and CRGE32 and tantalum-based self-powered neutron detectors (Ta-SPND) from Mirion. The evaluation was performed in a series of heat irradiations from ambient to 850°C in the 9.5-inch dry tube furnace at the Ohio State University Research Reactor (OSURR). Ion chamber counting curves were measured to evaluate sensor operability at temperature. Detector sensitivity to reactor power and temperature were measured and presented in curve fit parameters. The curve fit equations were used to identify the suggested operational temperatures based on reactor power. Overall, it was evaluated that the CRGA11 was not significantly affected by temperatures up to 650°C and is operable—with higher temperature-contributed signals—up to 700°C. The CRGE32 was more affected by the high temperatures compared to the CRGA11. As a result of increasing temperature, the leakage current was a dominating factor. While the detector can operate up to 600°C and 700°C with lowered high voltage, it is not recommended unless a suitably strong gamma flux field is present. Finally, Ta SPND did not demonstrate good performance beyond 350°C due to the presence of an unknown phenomenon at changing temperatures. The study of the phenomenon is an active research topic outside the scope of this project.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An analysis of controlled detachment by seeding various impurity species in high performance scenarios on DIII-D and EAST

Experiments at DIII-D and EAST have demonstrated simultaneous high confinement, divertor detachment, and active control of detachment level, all of which are required for ITER. Comparing detachment control via T e and J sat , it appears that is the most straightforward sensor to use for accessing detachment onset, while J sat offers more precise control of degree of detachment. Based on these results, control using nitrogen seeding has so far shown the best ability to follow a target value with the low disruptivity and little to no degradation of performance when an Internal Transport Barrier (ITB) is present, but not all facilities allow its use. Neon seeding also can be paired with feedback control with low impact on core performance as long as there is no disruption, however shots with neon seeding commonly disrupted during these experiments. Argon is effective in EAST, but tends to degrade performance (by ≈ 10%β p ) when detachment is achieved. With ideal conditions and strike point position control, data from a single Langmuir probe are an acceptable input to the control algorithm, but this simple system is easily defeated by strike point displacement comparable to the T e or J sat scale lengths. The presence of an ITB seems to be critical to retaining core performance in detachment in these parameter ranges, as the pedestal pressure tends to decrease as a result of impurity seeding.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Latent Neural ODE for Integrating Multi-Timescale Measurements in Smart Distribution Grids

Under a smart grid paradigm, there has been an increase in sensor installations to enhance situational awareness. The measurements from these sensors can be leveraged for real-time monitoring, control, and protection. However, these measurements are typically irregularly sampled. These measure-ments may also be intermittent due to communication bandwidth limitations. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a novel latent neural ordinary differential equations (LODE) approach to aggregate the unevenly sampled multivariate time-series measurements. The proposed approach is flexible in performing both imputations and predictions while being computationally efficient. Simulation results on IEEE 37 bus test systems illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.

multi time-scale measurements↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian-based response expansion and uncertainty quantification using sparse measurement sets

Systems subjected to dynamic loads often require monitoring of their vibrational response, but limitations on the total number and placement of the measurement sensors can hinder the data-collection process. Here, we present an indirect approach to estimate a system’s full-field dynamic response, including all uninstrumented locations, using response measurements from sensors sparsely located on the system. This approach relies on Bayesian inference that utilizes a system model to estimate the full-field response and quantify the uncertainty in these estimates. By casting the estimation problem in the frequency domain, this approach utilizes the modal frequency response functions as a natural, frequency-dependent weighting scheme for the system mode shapes to perform the expansion. This frequency-dependent weighting scheme enables an accurate expansion, even with highly correlated mode shapes that may arise from spatial aliasing due to the limited number of sensors, provided these correlated modes do not have natural frequencies that are closely spaced. Furthermore, the inherent regularization mechanism that arises in this Bayesian-based procedure enables the utilization of the full set of system mode shapes for the expansion, rather than any reduced subset. This approach can produce estimates when considering a single realization of the measured responses, and with some modification, it can also produce estimates for power spectral density matrices measured from many realizations of the responses from statistically stationary random processes. A simply supported beam provides an initial numerical validation, and a cylindrical test article excited by acoustic loads in a reverberation chamber provides experimental validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanoscale Three-Dimensional Imaging of Integrated Circuits Using a Scanning Electron Microscope and Transition-Edge Sensor Spectrometer

X-ray nanotomography is a powerful tool for the characterization of nanoscale materials and structures, but it is difficult to implement due to the competing requirements of X-ray flux and spot size. Due to this constraint, state-of-the-art nanotomography is predominantly performed at large synchrotron facilities. We present a laboratory-scale nanotomography instrument that achieves nanoscale spatial resolution while addressing the limitations of conventional tomography tools. The instrument combines the electron beam of a scanning electron microscope (SEM) with the precise, broadband X-ray detection of a superconducting transition-edge sensor (TES) microcalorimeter. The electron beam generates a highly focused X-ray spot on a metal target held micrometers away from the sample of interest, while the TES spectrometer isolates target photons with a high signal-to-noise ratio. This combination of a focused X-ray spot, energy-resolved X-ray detection, and unique system geometry enables nanoscale, element-specific X-ray imaging in a compact footprint. The proof of concept for this approach to X-ray nanotomography is demonstrated by imaging 160 nm features in three dimensions in six layers of a Cu-SiO 2 integrated circuit, and a path toward finer resolution and enhanced imaging capabilities is discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate–Mediated Graphene Sensor for Electrochemical Detection of the Antibiotic Drug: Ciprofloxacin

The present study involves detecting and determining CIP by a new electrochemical sensor based on graphene (Gr) in the presence of sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) employing voltammetric techniques. Surface morphology studies of the sensing material were analyzed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) and atomic force microscope (AFM). In the electroanalysis of CIP at the developed electrode, an enhanced anodic peak response was recorded, suggesting the electro-oxidation of CIP at the electrode surface. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of the electrolytic solution, scan rate, accumulation time, and concentration variation on the electrochemical behavior of CIP. The possible electrode mechanism was proposed based on the acquired experimental information. A concentration variation study was performed using differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in the lower concentration range, and the fabricated electrode achieved a detection limit of 2.9 × 10 -8 M. The proposed sensor detected CIP in pharmaceutical and biological samples. The findings displayed good recovery, with 93.8% for tablet analysis and 93.3% to 98.7% for urine analysis. The stability of a developed electrode was tested by inter- and intraday analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Instantaneous mesh load factor ( K γ ) measurements in a wind turbine gearbox using fiber-optic strain sensors

The mesh load factor, K γ , describes how loads are shared between planet gears and has become one of the key design challenges in modern wind turbine gearboxes. Planet load sharing directly impacts tooth root stresses, a critical driver of torque density and gearbox reliability. Experimental evaluation of K γ is typically performed from sun gear tooth root strain gauge measurements, which are complex. Furthermore, such measurements can only provide an average value of load sharing. The present study describes an alternative method to evaluate the mesh load factor in wind turbine gearboxes based on fiber-optic strain sensors installed on the outer surface of the fixed ring gear. We present the results of an extensive measurement campaign to evaluate this novel sensing solution installed on the input planetary stage of a 2-MW wind turbine gearbox at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus (Colorado, USA). The number of strain sensors on the ring gear was selected as an integer multiple of the number of planets, which has enabled an instantaneous evaluation of the mesh load factor. The effect of operating conditions on the planet load-sharing behavior of the gearbox has been investigated. The mesh load factor measured for operating conditions close to rated was below 1.05, well below IEC 61400-4 standard requirements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of the AstroPix Prototype Module for the Barrel Imaging Calorimeter at the ePIC Detector and in Space-Based Payloads

AstroPix is a high-voltage CMOS (HV-CMOS) monolithic active pixel sensor originally developed to enable precision gamma-ray imaging and spectroscopy in the medium-energy regime (~100 keV–100 MeV) based on the groundwork laid by ATLASpix and MuPix. It features a 500 μm pixel pitch, in-pixel amplification and digitization, and low power consumption (~3-4 mW/cm2), making it scalable for large-area, multilayer telescope detector planes. The detectors have a designed dynamic range of 25 keV to 700 keV. With these features, AstroPix meets the requirements of future space-based high-energy telescopes and the imaging layers of the Barrel Imaging Calorimeter (BIC) in the Electron-Proton/Ion Collider (ePIC) detector at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). For the space-based payload, AstroPix is being integrated into sounding rocket and balloon payloads to demonstrate the technical readiness of the devices. For BIC, AstroPix-based imaging layers interleaved within the lead/scintillating-fiber (Pb/SciFi) sampling calorimeter provide granular shower imaging, enabling key performance features such as electron/pion or gamma/neutral pion separation. As part of the ongoing detector R&D efforts, we have been testing various AstroPix_v3 configurations: the single chip, a quad-chip assembly, a three-layer stack of quad chips, and a 9-chip module that represents the smallest prototype unit of the BIC imaging layer. This presentation will highlight recent performance test results from these AstroPix detector configurations.

Kim, Bobae (ORCID:0000000295396815)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Bottom Anode Monitoring in DC Electric Arc Furnaces Using Fiber-Optic Sensors

A pin style bottom anode employs conductive steel rods that serve as the pathway for the high electrical power through rammed refractory at the bottom of a DC Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). Anode wear during operation is important to monitor, as anode replacement is expensive and impacts EAF productivity. Liquid steel penetration into the un-sintered refractory layer can result from rapid electrical power ramp-up, dips in furnace temperature, or operating the anode for too long between EAF campaigns. In extreme cases, the liquid steel may penetrate the bottom of the furnace when anode wear progresses too close to the bottom shell, which is extremely dangerous and must be avoided. The current state of the art for monitoring bottom anode wear employs thermocouples imbedded in the anode pins at points in the anode. However, this approach is not sensitive enough to detect localized damage to the anode, especially when cracking occurs. Here, the present work utilizes fiber optic sensors to monitor the health of the anode, by creating a real-time spatially distributed temperature map of the anode. Unlike the traditional thermocouples, these sensors can be mounted at significantly greater depths, provide distributed temperature measurements, and can withstand temperatures of up to 900°C. Additionally, they are able to perform temperature measurements with a spatial resolution of 1.3 mm at a 5 Hz acquisition rate, providing unprecedented high-density real time monitoring of anode health and increasing the efficiency, and safety of EAF operation.

Bottom Anode↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty for deep learning based forecasting and flow-reconstruction using neural architecture search ensembles

Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks — forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. In conclusion, we demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.

Deep ensembles↗