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Accessing Phonon Polaritons in Hyperbolic Crystals by Angle-Resolved Photoemission Spectroscopy

Recently studied hyperbolic materials host unique phonon-polariton (PP) modes. The ultrashort wavelengths of these modes, as well as their low damping, hold promise for extreme subdiffraction nanophotonics schemes. Polar hyperbolic materials such as hexagonal boron nitride can be used to realize long-range coupling between PP modes and extraneous charge degrees of freedom. The latter, in turn, can be used to control and probe PP modes. In this work we analyze coupling between PP modes and plasmons in an adjacent graphene sheet, which opens the door to accessing PP modes by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES). A rich structure in the graphene ARPES spectrum due to PP modes is anticipated, providing a new probe of PP modes and their coupling to graphene plasmons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of equilibrium ohmic and nonequilibrium swarm models for monitoring conduction electron evolution in high-altitude EMP calculations

Here, atmospheric electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events are important physical phenomena that occur through both man-made and natural processes. Radiation-induced currents and voltages in EMP can couple with electrical systems, such as those found in satellites, and cause significant damage. Due to the disruptive nature of EMP, it is important to accurately predict EMP evolution and propagation with computational models. CHAP-LA (Compton High Altitude Pulse-Los Alamos) is a state-of-the-art EMP code that solves Maxwell inline images equations for gamma source-induced electromagnetic fields in the atmosphere. In EMP, low-energy, conduction electrons constitute a conduction current that limits the EMP by opposing the Compton current. CHAP-LA calculates the conduction current using an equilibrium ohmic model. The equilibrium model works well at low altitudes, where the electron energy equilibration time is short compared to the rise time or duration of the EMP. At high altitudes, the equilibration time increases beyond the EMP rise time and the predicted equilibrium ionization rate becomes very large. The ohmic model predicts an unphysically large production of conduction electrons which prematurely and abruptly shorts the EMP in the simulation code. An electron swarm model, which implicitly accounts for the time evolution of the conduction electron energy distribution, can be used to overcome the limitations exhibited by the equilibrium ohmic model. We have developed and validated an electron swarm model previously in Pusateri et al. (2015). Here we demonstrate EMP damping behavior caused by the ohmic model at high altitudes and show improvements on high-altitude, upward EMP modeling obtained by integrating a swarm model into CHAP-LA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Near-Wall Reynolds-Stress Closure Without Wall Normals

Turbulent wall-bounded complex flows are commonly encountered in engineering practice and are of considerable interest in a variety of industrial applications. The presence of a wall significantly affects turbulence characteristics. In addition to the wall effects, turbulent wall-bounded flows become more complicated by the presence of additional body forces (e.g. centrifugal force and Coriolis force) and complex geometry. Most near-wall Reynolds stress models are developed from a high-Reynolds-number model which assumes turbulence is homogenous (or quasi-homogenous). Near-wall modifications are proposed to include wall effects in near-wall regions. In this process, wall normals are introduced. Good predictions could be obtained by Reynolds stress models with wall normals. However, ambiguity arises when the models are applied in flows with multiple walls. Many models have been proposed to model turbulent flows. Among them, Reynolds stress models, in which turbulent stresses are obtained by solving the Reynolds stress transport equations, have been proved to be the most successful ones. To apply the Reynolds stress models to wall-bounded flows, near-wall corrections accounting for the wall effects are needed, and the resulting models are called near-wall Reynolds stress models. In most of the existing near-wall models, the near-wall corrections invoke wall normals. These wall-dependent near-wall models are difficult to implement for turbulent flows with complex geometry and may give inaccurate predictions due to the ambiguity of wall normals at corners connecting multiple walls. The objective of this study is to develop a more general and flexible near-wall Reynolds stress model without using any wall-dependent variable for wall-bounded turbulent flows. With the aid of near-wall asymptotic analysis and results of direct numerical simulation, a new near-wall Reynolds stress model (NNWRS) is formulated based on Speziale et al.'s high-Reynolds-stress model with wall-independent near-wall corrections. Moreover, only one damping function is used for flows with a wide range of Reynolds numbers to ensure that the near-wall modifications diminish away from the walls.

Yuan, S. P.↗

Geometric phase of a qubit driven by a phase noise laser under non-Markovian dynamics

Robustness of the geometric phase (GP) with respect to the environmental effects is a basic condition for an effective quantum computation. Here, we study quantitatively the GP of a two-level atom system driven by a phase noise laser under non-Markovian dynamics in terms of different parameters involved in the whole system. We find that with the change of the damping coupling, the GP is very sensitive to its properties exhibiting long collapse and revival phenomena, which play a significant role in enhancing the stabilization and control of the system dynamics. Moreover, we show that the GP can be considered as a tool for testing and characterizing the nature of the qubit–environment coupling. Due to the significance of how a system is quantum correlated with its environment in the construction of a scalable quantum computer, the entanglement dynamics between the qubit with its environment under external classical noise is evaluated and investigated during the time evolution. -- Highlights: •Geometric phase under noise phase laser. •Dynamics of the geometric phase under non-Markovian dynamics in the presence of classical noise. •Solution of master equation of the system in terms atomic inversion. •Nonlocal correlation between the system and its environment under non-Markovianity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Uncertainty-Aware, Structure-Preserving Machine Learning Approach for Domain Shift Detection From Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of Structural Systems

Complex structural systems deployed for aerospace, civil, or mechanical applications must operate reliably under varying operational conditions. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems help ensure the reliability of these systems by providing continuous monitoring of the state of the structure. SHM relies on synthesizing measured data with a predictive model to make informed decisions about structural states. However, these models—which may be thought of as a form of a digital twin—need to be updated continuously as structural changes (e.g., due to damage) arise. We propose an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input state space and then encodes a distance-aware mechanism via a Gaussian process (GP) kernel. The proposed approach leverages the spectral-normalized neural GP algorithm to combine the flexibility of neural networks with the advantages of GP, subjected to structure-preserving constraints, to produce an uncertainty-aware model. This model is used to detect domain shift due to structural changes that cannot be observed directly because they may be spatially isolated (e.g., inside a joint or localized damage). This work leverages detection theory to detect domain shift systematically given statistical features of the prediction variance produced by the model. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear structure being subjected to damage conditions. In conclusion, it is shown that the proposed approach is able to rely on distances of the transformed input state space to predict increased variance in shifted domains while being robust to normative changes.

Algorithms↗

Environment-assisted non-Markovian speedup dynamics control

For the damped Jaynes–Cummings model in the weak system–environment coupling regime, a scheme to manipulate the non-Markovian dynamics has been previously proposed in the controllable environment. We here mainly focus on the two-Lorentzian model and the band-gap model, which are composed by adding a new Lorentzian spectrum to the original single-Lorentzian spectrum. By manipulating the parameters of the new added Lorentzian spectrum, i.e., changing the weights of the two Lorentzians, and tuning the spectral width of the new second Lorentzian, the dynamical crossover from Markovian to non-Markovian is achieved in the weak system–environment coupling regime. In addition, according to the controllable non-Markovian dynamics behavior, the roles of the parameters of the environment on the speedup evolution of the system are discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Three dimensional particle-in-cell simulation of particle acceleration by circularly polarised inertial Alfven waves in a transversely inhomogeneous plasma

The process of particle acceleration by left-hand, circularly polarised inertial Alfven waves (IAW) in a transversely inhomogeneous plasma is studied using 3D particle-in-cell simulation. A cylindrical tube with, transverse to the background magnetic field, inhomogeneity scale of the order of ion inertial length is considered on which IAWs with frequency 0.3{omega}{sub ci} are launched that are allowed to develop three wavelength. As a result time-varying parallel electric fields are generated in the density gradient regions which accelerate electrons in the parallel to magnetic field direction. Driven perpendicular electric field of IAWs also heats ions in the transverse direction. Such numerical setup is relevant for solar flaring loops and earth auroral zone. This first, 3D, fully kinetic simulation demonstrates electron acceleration efficiency in the density inhomogeneity regions, along the magnetic field, of the order of 45% and ion heating, in the transverse to the magnetic field direction, of 75%. The latter is a factor of two times higher than the previous 2.5D analogous study and is in accordance with solar flare particle acceleration observations. We find that the generated parallel electric field is localised in the density inhomogeneity region and rotates in the same direction and with the same angular frequency as the initially launched IAW. Our numerical simulations seem also to suggest that the 'knee' often found in the solar flare electron spectra can alternatively be interpreted as the Landau damping (Cerenkov resonance effect) of IAWs due to the wave-particle interactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Magnesium Technology 2019

Magnesium and its alloys are being investigated widely for applications that require extraordinarily high strength-to-weight ratio, vibration damping, electromagnetic shielding, reduction in carbon footprint, sustainability improvements, and low toxicity. In the past decade or so, this drive has led to increased adoption of magnesium and its alloys in everyday products and it is no longer regarded as an esoteric material. The overarching goal of its widespread adoption and replacement of conventional materials such as steel and aluminum alloys has been restricted due to the cost of the material, limited sources of primary material, alloying constraints, high chemical reactivity, and challenges associated with its plasticity. Researchers/scientists, engineers, and economists from industry, government agencies/laboratories, and academic institutions alike are actively developing roadmaps for next-generation products and addressing these challenges as quickly as possible through unique and innovative methods. The TMS Magnesium Committee has been actively involved in providing a platform to these entities for disseminating the latest information, developments, and cutting-edge research and development, and showcasing the latest trends related to magnesium and its alloys through the Magnesium Technology Symposium, which takes place every year at the annual TMS conference. This proceedings edition/volume retains the essence of this long-standing tradition. The 20th volume, Magnesium Technology 2019, is the proceedings of the Magnesium Technology Symposium held during the 148th TMS Annual Meeting & Exhibition in San Antonio, Texas, March 10–14, 2019. This proceeding captures commentaries and papers from 16 different nations who presented their work; the papers have been categorized systematically, based on topics pertaining to casting and solidification, thermomechanical processing, deformation mechanisms, modeling, corrosion, recycling, and applications.

Joshi, Vineet V.↗

A finite-element-based perturbation model for the rotordynamic analysis of shrouded pump impellers: Part 2: User's guide

This report describes the computational steps involved in executing a finite-element-based perturbation model for computing the rotor dynamic coefficients of a shrouded pump impeller or a simple seal. These arise from the fluid/rotor interaction in the clearance gap. In addition to the sample cases, the computational procedure also applies to a separate category of problems referred to as the 'seal-like' category. The problem, in this case, concerns a shrouded impeller, with the exception that the secondary, or leakage, passage is totally isolated from the primary-flow passage. The difference between this and the pump problem is that the former is analytically of the simple 'seal-like' configuration, with two (inlet and exit) flow-permeable stations, while the latter constitutes a double-entry / double-discharge flow problem. In all cases, the problem is that of a rotor clearance gap. The problem here is that of a rotor excitation in the form of a cylindrical whirl around the housing centerline for a smooth annular seal. In its centered operation mode, the rotor is assumed to give rise to an axisymmetric flow field in the clearance gap. As a result, problems involving longitudinal or helical grooves, in the rotor or housing surfaces, go beyond the code capabilities. Discarding, for the moment, the pre- and post-processing phases, the bulk of the computational procedure consists of two main steps. The first is aimed at producing the axisymmetric 'zeroth-order' flow solution in the given flow domain. Detailed description of this problem, including the flow-governing equations, turbulence closure, boundary conditions, and the finite-element formulation, was covered by Baskharone and Hensel. The second main step is where the perturbation model is implemented, with the input being the centered-rotor 'zeroth-order' flow solution and a prescribed whirl frequency ratio (whirl frequency divided by the impeller speed). The computational domain, in the latter case, is treated as three dimensional, with the number of computational planes in the circumferential direction being specified a priori. The reader is reminded that the deformations in the finite elements are all infinitesimally small because the rotor eccentricity itself is a virtual displacement. This explains why we have generically termed the perturbation model the 'virtually' deformable finite-element category. The primary outcome of implementing the perturbation model is the tangential and radial components, F(sub theta)(sup *) and F(sub r)(sup *) of the fluid-exerted force on the rotor surface due to the whirling motion. Repetitive execution of the perturbation model subprogram over a sufficient range of whirl frequency ratios, and subsequent interpolation of these fluid forces, using the least-square method, finally enable the user to compute the impeller rotor dynamic coefficients of the fluid/rotor interaction. These are the direct and cross-coupled stiffness, damping, and inertia effects of the fluid/rotor interaction.

Baskharone, Erian A.↗

Finite Element Modeling of a Cylindrical Contact Using Hertzian Assumptions

The turbine blades in the high-pressure fuel turbopump/alternate turbopump (HPFTP/AT) are subjected to hot gases rapidly flowing around them. This flow excites vibrations in the blades. Naturally, one has to worry about resonance, so a damping device was added to dissipate some energy from the system. The foundation is now laid for a very complex problem. The damper is in contact with the blade, so now there are contact stresses (both normal and tangential) to contend with. Since these stresses can be very high, it is not all that difficult to yield the material. Friction is another non-linearity and the blade is made out of a Nickel-based single-crystal superalloy that is orthotropic. A few approaches exist to solve such a problem and computer models, using contact elements, have been built with friction, plasticity, etc. These models are quite cumbersome and require many hours to solve just one load case and material orientation. A simpler approach is required. Ideally, the model should be simplified so the analysis can be conducted faster. When working with contact problems determining the contact patch and the stresses in the material are the main concerns. Closed-form solutions for non-conforming bodies, developed by Hertz, made out of isotropic materials are readily available. More involved solutions for 3-D cases using different materials are also available. The question is this: can Hertzian1 solutions be applied, or superimposed, to more complicated problems-like those involving anisotropic materials? That is the point of the investigation here. If these results agree with the more complicated computer models, then the analytical solutions can be used in lieu of the numerical solutions that take a very long time to process. As time goes on, the analytical solution will eventually have to include things like friction and plasticity. The models in this report use no contact elements and are essentially an applied load problem using Hertzian assumptions to determine the contact patch dimensions.

Knudsen, Erik↗

Magnesium Technology 2020

Magnesium and its alloys are being investigated widely for applications that require extraordinarily high strength-to-weight ratio, vibration damping, electromagnetic shielding, reduction in carbon footprint, sustainability improvements, and low toxicity. In the past decade or so, this drive has led to increased adoption of magnesium and its alloys in everyday products and it is no longer regarded as an esoteric material. The overarching goal of its widespread adoption and replacement of conventional materials such as steel and aluminum alloys has been restricted because of the cost of the material, limited sources of primary material, alloying constraints, high chemical reactivity, and challenges associated with its plasticity. Researchers, scientists, engineers, and economists from industry, government agencies and laboratories, and academic institutions alike are actively developing roadmaps for next-generation products and addressing these challenges as quickly as possible through unique and innovative methods. The TMS Magnesium Committee has been actively involved in providing a platform to these entities for disseminating the latest information, developments, and cutting-edge research and development, and showcasing the latest research and development trends related to magnesium and its alloys through the Magnesium Technology Symposium, which takes place every year at the TMS Annual Meeting. This proceedings volume retains the essence of this longstanding tradition. The twenty-first volume in the series, Magnesium Technology 2020, is the proceedings of the Magnesium Technology Symposium held during the 149th TMS Annual Meeting & Exhibition in San Diego, CA, February 23–27, 2020. The volume captures commentaries and papers from 15 different countries. The papers have been categorized systematically based on topics pertaining to magnesium production, casting and solidification, thermomechanical processing, deformation mechanisms, modeling, corrosion, and applications. The symposium began with keynote sessions that featured several distinguished invited speakers from government organizations and academia, who provided their perspectives on the state of the art, goals, and opportunities in magnesium alloy research and development. Dr. Carlos Tomé from Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, discussed 3D characterization of mechanical twins across grain boundaries. This was followed by a talk on hierarchically structured ultrafine-grained magnesium alloys by Dr. Rajiv Mishra from the University of North Texas, USA, who presented an example of using friction stir additive manufacturing for implementing such microstructures at a component level. Dr. Mark Horstemeyer from Liberty University, USA, presented an overview of fatigue modeling to capture the corrosion-fatigue behavior of magnesium alloys. The final talk in this session was presented by Dr. Bin Jiang from Chongqing University, China, who presented a novel extrusion approach for achieving high-strength magnesium alloy plates.

Jordon, J. Brian↗

Propagation of excitation in long 1D chains: Transition from regular quantum dynamics to stochastic dynamics

The quantum dynamics problem for a 1D chain consisting of 2N + 1 sites (N Much-Greater-Than 1) with the interaction of nearest neighbors and an impurity site at the middle differing in energy and in coupling constant from the sites of the remaining chain is solved analytically. The initial excitation of the impurity is accompanied by the propagation of excitation over the chain sites and with the emergence of Loschmidt echo (partial restoration of the impurity site population) in the recurrence cycles with a period proportional to N. The echo consists of the main (most intense) component modulated by damped oscillations. The intensity of oscillations increases with increasing cycle number and matrix element C of the interaction of the impurity site n = 0 with sites n = {+-}1 (0 < C {<=} 1; for the remaining neighboring sites, the matrix element is equal to unity). Mixing of the components of echo from neighboring cycles induces a transition from the regular to stochastic evolution. In the regular evolution region, the wave packet propagates over the chain at a nearly constant group velocity, embracing a number of sites varying periodically with time. In the stochastic regime, the excitation is distributed over a number of sites close to 2N, with the populations varying irregularly with time. The model explains qualitatively the experimental data on ballistic propagation of the vibrational energy in linear chains of CH{sub 2} fragments and predicts the possibility of a nondissipative energy transfer between reaction centers associated with such chains.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Chaotic Excitation and Tidal Damping in the GJ 876 System

The M-dwarf GJ 876 is the closest known star to harbor a multi-planetary system. With three outer planets locked in a chaotic Laplace-type resonance and an appreciably eccentric short-period super-Earth, this system represents a unique exposition of extrasolar planetary dynamics. A key question that concerns the long-term evolution of this system, and the fate of close-in planets in general, is how the significant eccentricity of the inner-most planet is maintained against tidal circularization on timescales comparable to the age of the universe. Here, we employ stochastic secular perturbation theory and N-body simulations to show that the orbit of the inner-most planet is shaped by a delicate balance between extrinsic chaotic forcing and tidal dissipation. As such, the planet’s orbital eccentricity represents an indirect measure of its tidal quality factor. Based on the system’s present-day architecture, we estimate that the extrasolar super-Earth GJ 876 d has a tidal Q ∼ 10{sup 4}–10{sup 5}, a value characteristic of solar system gas giants.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

LES Analysis of Loss Anomaly in a Turbine Blade with Large Trailing Edge Radius

There is great interest in the usage of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) as a turbine blade material. CMCs can tolerate higher temperatures than alloyed metallic blades, resulting in better thermal efficiency of gas turbine engines. However, depending on the manufacturing process of the CMC, blades may have a larger trailing edge thickness. The design space therefore needs to be updated due to the resulting flow physics. Recently, experimental results acquired at NASA Glenn Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade Rig showed that a loss measure generally increased with increasing trailing edge thickness. For one case however, the losses initially decreased with increasing Reynolds number but rose and peaked at Re ~1.24x10 6 and then subsequently dropped to the original pre-peak trend. A possible cause of this intriguing phenomenon was speculated to be transonic vortex shedding, which is the mechanism of vortex shedding promoted by reflected shed pressure waves at the trailing edge at relatively high Reynolds numbers and higher Mach numbers. A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) analysis or a low-resolution large eddy simulation (LES) does not reproduce this apparent anomaly and thus it is worth performing a wall-resolved LES (the total mesh count of ~290 million cells) to investigate the aerodynamics of the CMC blade in the context of transonic vortex shedding. Our numerical results at Re=1,246,350 show that the pressure waves generated by the vortex shedding in the wake travel upstream and significantly influence the transition and separation on the suction side thus enhancing the said vortex shedding in the wake. This feedback seems not to hold under a low-Re condition (Re=621,900). The Reynolds number dependence was also examined by numerical perturbation of the pressure waves in the wake and by examining how such perturbation attenuates or endures. It is confirmed that the perturbation of the pressure waves is quickly damped.

LES↗

Feasibility Study of SDAS Instrumentation's Ability to Identify Mobile Launcher (ML)/Crawler-Transporter (CT) Modes During Rollout Operations

The Space Launch System (SLS) and its Mobile Launcher (ML) will be transported to the launch pad via the Crawler-Transporter (CT) system. Rollout (i.e., transportation) loads produce structural loads on the integrated SLS/Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) launch vehicle which are of a concern with respect to fatigue. As part of the risk reduction process and in addition to the modal building block test approach that has been adopted by the SLS Program, acceleration data will be obtained during rollout for use in modal parameter estimation. There are several occurrences where the ML/CT will be transported either into the Vertical Assembly Building (VAB) or to the launch pad and back without the SLS stack as part of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) Integrated Test and Checkout (ITCO). NASA KSC EGS has instrumentation installed on both the ML and CT to record data during rollout, at the launch pad, and during liftoff. The EGS instrumentation on the ML, which includes accelerometers, is referred to as the Sensor Data Acquisition System (SDAS). The EGS instrumentation on the CT, which also includes accelerometers, is referred to as the CT Data Acquisition System (CTDAS). The forces and accelerations applied to the ML and CT during a rollout event will be higher than any of the planned building block modal tests. This can be very beneficial in helping identify nonlinear behavior in the structure. Developing modal parameters from the same test hardware in multiple boundary conditions and under multiple levels of excitation is a key step in developing a well correlated FEM. The purpose of this study was three fold. First, determine the target modes of the ML/CT in its rollout configuration. Second, determine if the test degrees of freedom (DOF) corresponding to the layout of the SDAS/CTDAS accelerometers (i.e. position and orientation) is sufficient to identify the target modes. Third, determine if the Generic Rollout Forcing Functions (GRFF's) is sufficient for identifying the ML/CT target modes accounting for variations in CT speed, modal damping, and sensor/ambient background noise levels. The finding from the first part of this study identified 28 target modes of the ML/CT rollout configuration based upon Modal Effective Mass Fractions (MEFF) and engineering judgement. The finding from the second part of this study showed that the SDAS/CTDAS accelerometers (i.e. position and orientation) are able to identify a sufficient number of the target modes to support model correlation of the ML/CT FEM. The finding from the third part of this study confirms the GRFFs sufficiently excite the ML/CT such that varying quantities of the defined target modes should be able to be extracted when utilizing an Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA) Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) analysis approach. An EMA analysis approach was used because Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) tools were not available and the GRFFs were sufficiently uncorrelated. Two key findings from this third part of the study are that the CT speed does not show a significant impact on the ability to extract the modal parameters and that keeping the ambient background noise observed at each accelerometer location at or below 30 µgrms is essential to the success of this approach.

Winkel, James P.↗

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SAO and Kelvin Waves in the EuroGRIPS GCMS and the UK Meteorological Offices Analyses

This work is an intercomparison of four tropospheric-stratospheric climate models, the Unified Model (UM) of the U.K. Meteorological Office (UKMO), the model of the Free University in Berlin (FUB). the ARPEGE-climat model of the National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM), and the Extended UGAMP GCM (EUGCM) of the Center for Global Atmospheric Modelling (CGAM), against the UKMO analyses. This comparison has been made in the framework of the "GSM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS). SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) aims are to investigate the effects of the middle atmosphere on climate and the GRIPS purpose is to organized a comprehensive assessment of current Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models (MACMs). The models integrations were made without identical contraints e.g. boundary conditions, incoming solar radiation). All models are able to represent the dominant features of the extratropical circulation. In this paper, the structure of the tropical winds and the strengths of the Kelvin waves are examined. Explanations for the differences exhibited. between the models. as well as between models and analyses, are also proposed. In the analyses a rich spectrum of waves (eastward and westward) is present and contributes to drive the SAO (SemiAnnual Oscillation) and the QBO (Quasi-Biennal Oscillation). The amplitude of the Kelvin waves is close to the one observed in UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) data. In agreement with observations, the Kelvin waves generated in the models propagate into the middle atmosphere as wave packets which underlines convective forcing origin. In most models, slow Kelvin waves propagate too high and are hence overestimated in the upper stratosphere and in the mesosphere, except for the UM which is more diffusive. These waves are not sufficient to force realistic westerlies of the QBO or SAO westerly phases. If the SAO is represented by all models only two of them are able to generate westerlies between 10 hPa and 50 hPa. The importance of the role played by subgrided gravity waves is more and more recognized. Actually, the EUGCM which includes a parametrization of gravity waves with a non-zero phase speed is able to simulate. with however some unrealistic features, clear easterly to westerly transitions as well as westerlies downward propagations. Thermal damping is also important in the westerlies forcing in the stratosphere. The model ARPEGE-climat shows more westerlies in the stratosphere than tile other three models probably due to the use of a simplified scheme to predict the ozone distribution in the middle atmosphere.

Amodei, M.↗