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At least 937 records · Page 52

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, Orion, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.

Staton, Eric↗

Corrosion study of bare and coated stainless steel

A program was conducted at Kennedy Space Center from February 1968 to February 1971 to evaluate the performance of austenitic stainless steel alloys used in fluid systems lines. For several years, there had been numerous failures of stainless steel hardware caused by pitting and stress corrosion cracking. Several alloys were evaluated for effectiveness of certain sacrificial-type protective coverings in preventing corrosion failures. Samples were tested in specially designed racks placed 91 meters (100 yards) above high-tide line at Cape Kennedy. It is concluded that: (1) unprotected tubing samples showed evidence of pitting initiation after 2 weeks; (2) although some alloys develop larger pits than others, it is probable that the actual pitting rate is independent of alloy type; (3) the deepest pitting occurred in the sheltered part of the samples; and (4) zinc-rich coatings and an aluminum-filled coating have afforded sacrificial protection against pitting for at least 28 months. It is believed that a much longer effective coating life can be expected.

Morrison, J. D.↗

Choosing reliability level for Shuttle-carried payloads

The paramount importance of high payload reliability is questioned in the light of payload recoverability in Spacelab and Space Shuttle experiments, and cost effectiveness through less stringent reliability requirements backed up by recovery and reflight of the experiment if necessary is considered. Ground rules and parameters for assessing reliability and recoverability in relation to mission cost effectiveness are advanced. Mission success probability (for one or several flights), experiment hardware cost, design reliability, cost of orbiting the experiment, support system reliability, and other relevant parameters are identified and discussed, and graphs of experimental total cost envelope are plotted. It is proposed that reliability and quality assurance standards be weighed against failure costs and penalties in the case of recoverable space systems.

Campbell, J. W.↗

Analytic redundance management for flight control sensors

The formulation and flight test results of an algorithm to detect and isolate the first failure of any one of 12 duplex control sensor signals (24 in all) being monitored are reviewed. The technique uses like signal differences for fault detection while relying upon analytic redundancy relationships among unlike quantities to isolate the faulty sensor. The fault isolation logic utilizes the modified sequential probability ratio test, which explicitly accommodates the inevitable, irreducible low frequency errors present in the analytic redundancy residuals. In addition, the algorithm used sensor output selftest, which takes advantage of the duplex sensor structure by immediately removing a hard failed sensor from control calculations and analytic redundancy relationships while awaiting a definitive fault isolation decision via analytic redundancy. This study represents a proof of concept demonstration of a methodology that is applied to duplex or higher flight control sensor configurations and, in addition, can monitor the health of one simplex signal per analytic redundancy relationship.

Deckert, J. C.↗

Random Matrix Approach to Quantum Adiabatic Evolution Algorithms

We analyze the power of quantum adiabatic evolution algorithms (Q-QA) for solving random NP-hard optimization problems within a theoretical framework based on the random matrix theory (RMT). We present two types of the driven RMT models. In the first model, the driving Hamiltonian is represented by Brownian motion in the matrix space. We use the Brownian motion model to obtain a description of multiple avoided crossing phenomena. We show that the failure mechanism of the QAA is due to the interaction of the ground state with the "cloud" formed by all the excited states, confirming that in the driven RMT models. the Landau-Zener mechanism of dissipation is not important. We show that the QAEA has a finite probability of success in a certain range of parameters. implying the polynomial complexity of the algorithm. The second model corresponds to the standard QAEA with the problem Hamiltonian taken from the Gaussian Unitary RMT ensemble (GUE). We show that the level dynamics in this model can be mapped onto the dynamics in the Brownian motion model. However, the driven RMT model always leads to the exponential complexity of the algorithm due to the presence of the long-range intertemporal correlations of the eigenvalues. Our results indicate that the weakness of effective transitions is the leading effect that can make the Markovian type QAEA successful.

Boulatov, Alexei↗

Environmental Influence of Gravity and Pressure on Arc Tracking of Insulated Wires Investigated

Momentary short-circuit arcs between a defective polyimide-insulated wire and another conductor may thermally char (pyrolize) the insulating material. The charred polyimide, being conductive, can sustain the short-circuit arc, which may propagate along the wire through continuous pyrolization of the polyimide insulation (arc tracking). If the arcing wire is part of a multiple-wire bundle, the polyimide insulation of other wires within the bundle may become thermally charred and start arc tracking also (flash over). Such arc tracking can lead to complete failure of an entire wire bundle, causing other critical spacecraft or aircraft failures. Unfortunately, all tested candidate wire insulations for aerospace vehicles were susceptible to arc tracking. Therefore, a test procedure was designed at the NASA Lewis Research Center to select the insulation type least susceptible to arc tracking. This test procedure addresses the following three areas of concern: (1) probability of initiation, (2) probability of reinitiation (restrike), and (3) extent of arc tracking damage (propagation rate). Item 2 (restrike probability) is an issue if power can be terminated from and reapplied to the arcing wire (by a switch, fuse, or resettable circuit breaker). The degree of damage from an arcing event (item 3) refers to how easily the arc chars nearby insulation and propagates along the wire pair. Ease of nearby insulation charring can be determined by measuring the rate of arc propagation. Insulation that chars easily will propagate the arc faster than insulation that does not char very easily. A popular polyimide insulated wire for aerospace vehicles, MIL-W-81381, was tested to determine a degree of damage from an arcing event (item 3) in the following three environments: (1) microgravity with air at 1-atm pressure, (2) 1g with air at 1 atm, and (3) 1g within a 10^-6 Torr vacuum. The microgravity 1-atm air was the harshest environment, with respect to the rate of damage of arc tracking, for the 20 AWG (American Wiring Gauge) MIL-W-81381 wire insulation type . The vacuum environment resulted in the least damage. Further testing is planned to determine if the environmental results are consistent between insulation types and to evaluate the other two parameters associated with arc tracking susceptibility.

Source record↗

Gears Based on Carbon Nanotubes

Gears based on carbon nanotubes (see figure) have been proposed as components of an emerging generation of molecular- scale machines and sensors. In comparison with previously proposed nanogears based on diamondoid and fullerene molecules, the nanotube-based gears would have simpler structures and are more likely to be realizable by practical fabrication processes. The impetus for the practical development of carbon-nanotube- based gears arises, in part, from rapid recent progress in the fabrication of carbon nanotubes with prescribed diameters, lengths, chiralities, and numbers of concentric shells. The shafts of the proposed gears would be made from multiwalled carbon nanotubes. The gear teeth would be rigid molecules (typically, benzyne molecules), bonded to the nanotube shafts at atomically precise positions. For fabrication, it may be possible to position the molecular teeth by use of scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) or other related techniques. The capability to position individual organic molecules at room temperature by use of an STM tip has already been demonstrated. Routes to the chemical synthesis of carbon-nanotube-based gears are also under investigation. Chemical and physical aspects of the synthesis of molecular scale gears based on carbon nanotubes and related molecules, and dynamical properties of nanotube- based gears, have been investigated by computational simulations using established methods of quantum chemistry and molecular dynamics. Several particularly interesting and useful conclusions have been drawn from the dynamical simulations performed thus far: The forces acting on the gears would be more sensitive to local molecular motions than to gross mechanical motions of the overall gears. Although no breakage of teeth or of chemical bonds is expected at temperatures up to at least 3,000 K, the gears would not work well at temperatures above a critical range from about 600 to about 1,000 K. Gear temperature could probably be controlled by use of coolant gases. For a given application, the gears would work well at temperatures below the critical range, provided that the rotational energy was less than the energy required to tilt the teeth through an angle of 20 . The predominant mechanism of gear failure would be slippage caused by tilting of teeth. Gears would resume functioning if the slipping gears were decelerated sufficiently.

Jaffe, Richard↗

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk under off-nominal conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk likelihood of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused due to wind is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic simulation model of the vehicle. Likelihood of risk for the flight plan is then analyzed based on generating the probability of collision for each point in the trajectory. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, distance from obstacles, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

Portia Banerjee↗

The PAU Survey: narrow-band photometric redshifts using Gaussian processes

Here, we study the performance of the hybrid template machine learning photometric redshift (photo- z ) algorithm delight , which uses Gaussian processes, on a subset of the early data release of the Physics of the Accelerating Universe Survey (PAUS). We calibrate the fluxes of the 40 PAUS narrow bands with six broad-band fluxes ( uBVriz ) in the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS) field using three different methods, including a new method that utilizes the correlation between the apparent size and overall flux of the galaxy. We use a rich set of empirically derived galaxy spectral templates as guides to train the Gaussian process, and we show that our results are competitive with other standard photometric redshift algorithms. delight achieves a photo- z 68th percentile error of σ 68 = 0.0081(1 + z ) without any quality cut for galaxies with i auto < 22.5 as compared to 0.0089(1 + z ) and 0.0202(1 + z ) for the bpz and annz 2 codes, respectively. delight is also shown to produce more accurate probability distribution functions for individual redshift estimates than bpz and annz 2. Common photo- z outliers of delight and bcnz 2 (previously applied to PAUS) are found to be primarily caused by outliers in the narrow-band fluxes, with a small number of cases potentially indicating spectroscopic redshift failures in the reference sample. In the process, we introduce performance metrics derived from the results of bcnz 2 and delight , allowing us to achieve a photo- z quality of σ 68 < 0.0035(1 + z ) at a magnitude of i auto < 22.5 while keeping 50 per cent objects of the galaxy sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reinforced Ammo Can Validation Test Report for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

A research effort was conducted to investigate the effects of an unintentional internal detonation of energetic materials on a small transportation container called the “Reinforced Ammo Can” (RAC), which is currently approved for the transport of energetic materials up to 2 grams net explosive weight (NEW) onsite at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The project used experimental testing of the containers based on simulated results conducted by a Missouri S & T explosives engineering graduate student while on an internship working in explosives safety at LLNL. The proposed experimental testing consisted of 20 central detonation tests in separate Reinforced Ammo Can containers to verify their high explosive (HE) containment capability. RAC containers are required for transporting secondary explosives on site at LLNL Site 200 in quantities between 300 mg and 2 grams of Trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent NEW. Currently, the LLNL Environmental Safety and Health (ES&H) Manual states that the RAC containers are permissible for on-site transportation of secondary explosives up to 2 grams NEW by approved HE handlers with the approval of an Explosives Safety Expert (ESE). Simulated results indicated that tensile failure of the closure mechanism on the container is the most likely failure mode, and showed potential occurrence at the 2 gram NEW threshold. Experimental validation tests were conducted indicating failure/rupture of the containers lid with venting of the detonation products at the 2 gram NEW test threshold with an explosive mass safety factor of 1.3. Failure consisted of impact opening the container latch mechanism resulting in potential ejection of the lid depending on the orientation of the charge within the confinement. This analysis solely is an evaluation of the response of the containment if a detonation were to occur, it does NOT consider the probability of such an event.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Central peaks in lunar craters - Morphology and morphometry

Fresh lunar craters with diameters from 17 to 175 km are found to display a linear relationship between the central peak morphology and morphometry and such critical crater parameters as rim crest diameter, floor diameter, and substrate. Some other previously established linear relationships have been cited as evidence that floor diameter, peak height, and peak ring diameter are related to the kinetic energy of impact. The two new relations derived in the present work would therefore indicate that the central peaks, too, are related to the kinetic energy of impact, and probably begin to form early in the cratering event as suggested by Milton and Roddy (1972) and Head (1978). There seems to be no obvious reason to expect such linear relationships between central peak diameter and rim crest and floor diameter if the peaks are formed by gravity induced failure of the transient cavity, as suggested by Dence et al. (1968).

Hale, W.↗

The influence of structural response on sympathetic detonation

The role that a munition's structural response plays in the ignition process and the development of violent reactions and detonations is explored. The munition's structural response is identified as one of the factors that influences reaction violence. If the structural response of a round is known, this knowledge can be used to redstruce the probability that a large explosion would result from the sequential detonation of individual rounds within a large storage array. The response of an acceptor round was studied. The castings fail in the same manner regardless of whether or not there is a fill material present in the round. These failures are caused by stress waves which are transformed from compressive waves to tensile waves by reflection as the impact energy moves around the casting. Since these waves move in opposite directions around the projectile circumference and collide opposite the point of impact, very high tensile forces are developed which can crack the casing.

Watson, J. L.↗

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

Contrasting actions of pressor agents in severe autonomic failure

BACKGROUND: Orthostatic hypotension is the most disabling symptom of autonomic failure. The choice of a pressor agent is largely empiric, and it would be of great value to define predictors of a response. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In 35 patients with severe orthostatic hypotension due to multiple system atrophy or pure autonomic failure, we determined the effect on seated systolic blood pressure (SBP) of placebo, phenylpropanolamine (12.5 mg and 25 mg), yohimbine (5.4 mg), indomethacin (50 mg), ibuprofen (600 mg), caffeine (250 mg), and methylphenidate (5 mg). In a subgroup of patients, we compared the pressor effect of midodrine (5 mg) with the effect of phenylpropanolamine (12.5 mg). RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the pressor responses between patients with multiple system atrophy or pure autonomic failure. When compared with placebo, the pressor response was significant for phenylpropanolamine, yohimbine, and indomethacin. In a subgroup of patients, we confirmed that this pressor effect of phenylpropanolamine, yohimbine, and indomethacin corresponded to a significant increase in standing SBP. The pressor responses to ibuprofen, caffeine, and methylphenidate were not significantly different from placebo. Phenylpropanolamine and midodrine elicited similar pressor responses. There were no significant associations between drug response and autonomic function testing, postprandial hypotension, or plasma catecholamine levels. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that significant increases in systolic blood pressure can be obtained in patients with orthostatic hypotension due to primary autonomic failure with phenylpropanolamine in low doses or yohimbine or indomethacin in moderate doses. The response to a pressor agent cannot be predicted by autonomic function testing or plasma catecholamines. Therefore, empiric testing with a sequence of medications, based on the risk of side effects in the individual patient and the probability of a response, is a useful approach.

Clinical Trial↗

SSME Propellant Path Leak Detection

The complicated high-pressure cycle of the space shuttle main engine (SSME) propellant path provides many opportunities for external propellant path leaks while the engine is running. This mode of engine failure may be detected and analyzed with sufficient speed to save critical engine test hardware from destruction. The leaks indicate hardware failures which will damage or destroy an engine if undetected; therefore, detection of both cryogenic and hot gas leaks is the objective of this investigation. The primary objective of this phase of the investigation is the experimental validation of techniques for detecting and analyzing propellant path external leaks which have a high probability of occurring on the SSME. The selection of candidate detection methods requires a good analytic model for leak plumes which would develop from external leaks and an understanding of radiation transfer through the leak plume. One advanced propellant path leak detection technique is obtained by using state-of-the-art technology infrared (IR) thermal imaging systems combined with computer, digital image processing, and expert systems for the engine protection. The feasibility of IR leak plume detection is evaluated on subscale simulated laboratory plumes to determine sensitivity, signal to noise, and general suitability for the application.

Roger Crawford↗

A Probabilistic Approach of Incorporating Safety and Reliability in System Designs for a Manned Mission to Mars

Conceptual stages in mission design often lack the input of quantitative safety and reliability assessments, simply because failure rates or other data are not yet available for systems that have not yet been designed. Absence of such data should not, however, prevent the development of a quantitative risk models with placeholders for missing data. Functions (that is, actions the systems must perform) in mission design will eventually require system probabilities of success, and there could be much learned from surrogate data, adequately bounded in uncertainty, used in a large event tree model of a complex mission.

Railsback, Jan W.↗

Risk Management: A Practical Design Tool For Space Systems and Technology Development

Over the past two decades, risk management and risk analysis have emerged throughout the business community in the United States (US) as prominent planning and development strategies used to mitigate risk of failure and ensure a high return on investment (ROI) for business endeavors (financial and otherwise). They are generic tools that can be applied to any business regardless of the sector (i.e., government, university, private) and have been used by the Federal government in the form of institutional practices aimed at maximizing the probability of success in business activities. One US Federal agency that incorporates risk management and analysis techniques into business and/or engineering activities is the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The present work is a discussion on mission, spacecraft and instrument design (as well as technology development) and the role of risk management, analysis and mitigation as a fundamental tool in the design process.

Silk, Eric A.↗