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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesh-Sequenced Realizations for Evaluation of Subgrid-Scale Models for Turbulent Combustion

This paper develops a new approach for analysis of subgrid closures for turbulent combustion as modeled using direct quadrature (finite-rate chemistry) techniques. The approach, termed multiresolution analysis through mesh-sequenced realizations (MRA-MSR), conducts simultaneous, constrained large-eddy simulations on a set of hierarchically coarsened meshes. Furthermore, the availability of underlying fine-mesh (subgrid) data corresponding to coarse-mesh locations allows a clearer assessment of the effects of unresolved fluctuations on apparent reactivity. A key to MRA-MSR is the correlation of eddy structures at coarser mesh levels, which is facilitated by the transfer of filtered fine-mesh velocity information. A seven-mesh MRA-MSR hierarchy using three resolution levels is applied to one of the Sydney bluff-body stabilized methane–hydrogen flames. Analysis of the simultaneously evolved data at different resolution levels reveals several interesting trends. First, at high Damköhler numbers, there is clear evidence of attenuation of apparent reactivity due to the effects of unresolved fluctuations. Secondly, single-point, single-time filtered density functions of a normalized subgrid Damköhler number show a characteristic beta probability density function (PDF) form and display evidence of scale similarity. Interrogation of the MRA-MSR database also shows that the recently-proposed least-squares minimization (LSM) turbulence–chemistry interaction model can account for the observed diminishment in reactivity at high Damköhler numbers but cannot reduce scatter significantly. A new form of the LSM model, which makes use of the normalized subgrid Damköhler number beta PDF distribution, performs slightly better than the original model, illustrating the potential of MRA-MSR both in assessing existing closure concepts and in developing new ones.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Monitoring near Ithaca, New York, Reveals Nonuniform Distribution of Microseismicity in an Intraplate Region

Abstract Cornell University intends to use a deep direct-use geothermal system to heat its Ithaca, New York, campus. In preparation for this project, the Cornell Seismic Network has been monitoring the background seismicity in this intraplate region since 2019. From January 2020 to June 2023, 95 events were detected within 20 km of the proposed geothermal well site, with local magnitudes ranging from −1.02 to 0.56. None of these events appear in regional or national catalogs. Events locate in a narrow geographic band, with one-fourth exhibiting multimodal hypocentral probability peaks both near the surface and at 1–4 km depth. We relocate events with a joint hypocenter and 1D velocity model inversion, in addition to a fully nonlinear method, and then compare observations with synthetic waveforms. Together, these approaches provide strong evidence for >95% of events locating at the surface or within the 3-km-thick sedimentary sequence. We explore how anthropogenic activity and regional topographic stress may contribute to frequent surficial events. This information is critical for characterizing the background microseismicity for comparison during future geothermal operations. Ithaca’s geology of Paleozoic sediments overlying Precambrian crystalline basement is typical of many continental interiors, so these results also provide insight into intraplate microseismicity patterns.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum Divide and Compute: Exploring the Effect of Different Noise Sources

Abstract Our recent work (Ayral et al. in Proceedings of IEEE computer society annual symposium on VLSI, ISVLSI, pp 138–140, 2020. 10.1109/ISVLSI49217.2020.00034 ) showed the first implementation of the Quantum Divide and Compute (QDC) method, which allows to break quantum circuits into smaller fragments with fewer qubits and shallower depth. This accommodates the limited number of qubits and short coherence times of quantum processors. This article investigates the impact of different noise sources—readout error, gate error and decoherence—on the success probability of the QDC procedure. We perform detailed noise modeling on the Atos Quantum Learning Machine, allowing us to understand tradeoffs and formulate recommendations about which hardware noise sources should be preferentially optimized. We also describe in detail the noise models we used to reproduce experimental runs on IBM’s Johannesburg processor. This article also includes a detailed derivation of the equations used in the QDC procedure to compute the output distribution of the original quantum circuit from the output distribution of its fragments. Finally, we analyze the computational complexity of the QDC method for the circuit under study via tensor-network considerations, and elaborate on the relation the QDC method with tensor-network simulation methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating high resolution drone imagery and forest inventory to distinguish canopy and understory trees and quantify their contributions to forest structure and dynamics

Tree growth and survival differ strongly between canopy trees (those directly exposed to overhead light), and understory trees. However, the structural complexity of many tropical forests makes it difficult to determine canopy positions. The integration of remote sensing and ground-based data enables this determination and measurements of how canopy and understory trees differ in structure and dynamics. Here we analyzed 2 cm resolution RGB imagery collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), also known as drone, together with two decades of bi-annual tree censuses for 2 ha of old growth forest in the Central Amazon. We delineated all crowns visible in the imagery and linked each crown to a tagged stem through field work. Canopy trees constituted 40% of the 1244 inventoried trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) > 10 cm, and accounted for ~70% of aboveground carbon stocks and wood productivity. The probability of being in the canopy increased logistically with tree diameter, passing through 50% at 23.5 cm DBH. Diameter growth was on average twice as large in canopy trees as in understory trees. Growth rates were unrelated to diameter in canopy trees and positively related to diameter in understory trees, consistent with the idea that light availability increases with diameter in the understory but not the canopy. The whole stand size distribution was best fit by a Weibull distribution, whereas the separate size distributions of understory trees or canopy trees > 25 cm DBH were equally well fit by exponential and Weibull distributions, consistent with mechanistic forest models. The identification and field mapping of crowns seen in a high resolution orthomosaic revealed new patterns in the structure and dynamics of trees of canopy vs. understory at this site, demonstrating the value of traditional tree censuses with drone remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning error distribution kernel‐enhanced neural network methodology for multi‐intersection signal control optimization

Traffic congestion has substantially induced significant mobility and energy inefficiency. Many research challenges are identified in traffic signal control and management associated with artificial intelligence (AI)-based models. For example, developing AI-driven dynamic traffic system models that accurately capture high-resolution traffic attributes and formulate robust control algorithms for traffic signal optimization is difficult. Additionally, uncertainties in traffic system modeling and control processes can further complicate traffic signal system controllability. To partially address these challenges, this study presents a novel, hybrid neural network model enhanced with a probability density function kernel shaping technique to formulate traffic system dynamics better and improve comprehensive traffic network modeling and control. The numerical experimental tests were conducted, and the results demonstrate that the proposed control approach outperforms the baseline control strategies and reduces overall average delays by 11.64% on average. By leveraging the capabilities of this innovative model, this study aims to address major challenges related to traffic congestion and energy inefficiency toward more effective and adaptable AI-based traffic control systems.

Wang, Hong [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗
DOE OSTI2024

Strong nebular emissions associated with Mg ii absorptions detected in the SDSS spectra of background quasars

ABSTRACT We present long-slit spectroscopic observations of 40 Galaxy On Top of Quasars (GOTOQs) at ${0.37 \leqslant z \leqslant 1.01}$ using the South African Large Telescope. Using this and available photometric data, we measure the impact parameters of the foreground galaxies to be in the range of 3–16 kpc with a median value of 8.6 kpc. This is the largest sample of galaxies producing Mg ii absorption at such low impact parameters. These quasar–galaxy pairs are ideal for probing the disc–halo interface. At such impact parameters, we do not find any anticorrelation between rest equivalent width (REW) of Ca ii, Mn ii, Fe ii, Mg ii, and Mg i absorption and impact parameter. These sight lines are typically redder than those of strong Mg ii absorbers, with the colour excess, E(B − V) for our sample ranging from −0.191 to 0.422, with a median value of 0.058. In the E(B − V) versus W3935 plane, GOTOQs occupy the same region as Ca ii absorbers. For a given E(B − V), we find larger W3935 than what has been found in the Milky Way, probably due to a smaller dust-to-gas ratio in GOTOQs. Galaxy parameters could be measured for twelve cases, and their properties seem to follow the trends found for strong Mg ii absorbers. Measuring the host galaxy properties for the full sample using HST photometry or AO-assisted ground-based imaging is important to gain insights into the relationship between the stellar mass of galaxies and the metal line REW distributions at low impact parameters.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data

This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Random Tensor Networks with Non-trivial Links

Abstract Random tensor networks are a powerful toy model for understanding the entanglement structure of holographic quantum gravity. However, unlike holographic quantum gravity, their entanglement spectra are flat. It has therefore been argued that a better model consists of random tensor networks with link states that are not maximally entangled, i.e., have non-trivial spectra. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of the entanglement properties of these networks. We employ tools from free probability, random matrix theory, and one-shot quantum information theory to study random tensor networks with bounded and unbounded variation in link spectra, and in cases where a subsystem has one or multiple minimal cuts. If the link states have bounded spectral variation, the limiting entanglement spectrum of a subsystem with two minimal cuts can be expressed as a free product of the entanglement spectra of each cut, along with a Marchenko–Pastur distribution. For a class of states with unbounded spectral variation, analogous to semiclassical states in quantum gravity, we relate the limiting entanglement spectrum of a subsystem with two minimal cuts to the distribution of the minimal entanglement across the two cuts. In doing so, we draw connections to previous work on split transfer protocols, entanglement negativity in random tensor networks, and Euclidean path integrals in quantum gravity.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal filtering and generation of entangled photons for quantum applications in the presence of noise

Filtering is commonly used in quantum optics to reject noise photons, and also to enable interference between independent photons. However, filtering the joint spectrum of photon pairs can reduce the inherent coincidence probability or loss-independent heralding efficiency. Here we investigate filtering for multiphoton applications based on entanglement and interference (e.g., quantum teleportation). We multiplex C-band entangled photons and C-band classical communications into the same long-distance fibers, which enables scalable low-loss quantum networking but requires filtering of spontaneous Raman scattering noise from classical light. Using tunable-bandwidth filters, low-jitter detectors, and polarization filters, we distribute wavelength-degenerate time-bin entangled photons in the C band (1536.5 nm) over 25 km/25 km standard fibers (50 km) each carrying 10 Gbit/s C-band classical data signals. Narrow filtering enables milliwatt-level C-band power, which exceeds the power achieved by comparable studies by roughly an order of magnitude and could feasibly support terabit per second classical rates. We evaluate how performance depends on pump and filter bandwidths, multipair emission, filter shapes, loss, phase matching, and how quantum information is measured. We find a trade-off between reducing noise impact and increasing single-mode purity, and discuss mitigation methods toward optimal multiphoton applications. Importantly, these results apply to noise in free space and in quantum devices (sources, frequency converters, switches, detectors, etc.) and provide insight into filter-induced degradation of single-photon purity and rates even in noise-free environments.

Thomas, Jordan M. [Fermilab; Northwestern U.]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying concordance of correlated cosmological data sets

We develop estimators of agreement and disagreement between correlated cosmological data sets. These account for data correlations when computing the significance of both tensions and excess confirmation while remaining statistically optimal. We discuss and thoroughly characterize different approaches commenting on the ones that have the best behavior in practical applications. We complement the calculation of their statistical distribution within the Gaussian model with one estimator that takes non-Gaussianities fully into account. To illustrate the use of our techniques, we apply these estimators to supernovae measurements of the distance-redshift relation, absolutely calibrated by the local distance ladder. The suite of best estimators that we discuss finds results that are in excellent agreement between estimators and find no indications of significant internal inconsistencies in this data set above the 1% probability threshold. Furthermore, this shows the robustness of local determinations of the Hubble constant to features in the distance-redshift relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Classification for Galaxy Blend Identification in LSST

Abstract A significant fraction of observed galaxies in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will overlap at least one other galaxy along the same line of sight, in a so-called “blend.” The current standard method of assessing blend likelihood in LSST images relies on counting up the number of intensity peaks in the smoothed image of a blend candidate, but the reliability of this procedure has not yet been comprehensively studied. Here we construct a realistic distribution of blended and unblended galaxies through high-fidelity simulations of LSST-like images, and from this we examine the blend classification accuracy of the standard peak-finding method. Furthermore, we develop a novel Gaussian process blend classifier model, and show that this classifier is competitive with both the peak finding method as well as with a convolutional neural network model. Finally, whereas the peak-finding method does not naturally assign probabilities to its classification estimates, the Gaussian process model does, and we show that the Gaussian process classification probabilities are generally reliable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Updated Visual Orbit of the Directly Imaged Exoplanet 51 Eridani b and Prospects for a Dynamical Mass Measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric (e=0.53{sub -0.13}{sup +0.09}) orbit at an intermediate inclination (i=136{sub -11}{sup +10} °), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semimajor axis of 11.1{sub -1.3}{sup +4.2} au and a period of 28.1{sub -4.9}{sup +17.2} yr, assuming a mass of 1.75 M{sub ⊙} for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigate the potential of using the absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51 Eri derived from a comparison of the Hipparcos and Gaia catalogs was found to be inconsistent at the 2σ–3σ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs and the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using Gaia astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating Gaia measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended 8 yr mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible (>98% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the Gaia scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars and a high mass for the planet (≳3.6 M {sub Jup}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modular Plasma Microreactor for Intensified Hydrogen Peroxide Production

Sustainable and decentralized manufacturing of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) has been extensively sought to replace the energy- and waste-intensive anthraquinone process. We introduce a helical biphasic microreactor in a coaxial dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) configuration as a modular, adaptable, and scalable intensified unit for H 2 O 2 production. Geometric and operating parameters such as electrode length, applied voltage, and gas and liquid flow rates can be tuned to regulate the residence time, delivered power, and gas–liquid interfacial area. In turn, these affect the key output parameters, i.e., H 2 O 2 concentration, production rate, and energy yield. We found a direct correlation between the H 2 O 2 production rate and the product of the interfacial area and residence time in the plasma region. We investigated the H 2 O 2 formation pathways using DMSO as an ·OH radical scavenger and found that H 2 O 2 forms by the dissolution of gaseous H 2 O 2 at low interfacial areas and is enhanced probably due to the interfacial recombination of ·OH radicals at a large gas–liquid interfacial area. The reactor temperature can also be externally controlled to intensify the production rate and energy yield of H 2 O 2 . Concentrations of up to 33 mM can be attained with a small footprint reactor that features a maximum energy yield of 4 g kWh –1 . Here, the plasma microreactor could epitomize a powerful process intensification tool for sustainable and distributed chemical manufacturing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗