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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging problems of quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of meteorological time series data

Abstract Representativeness and quality of collected meteorological data impact accuracy and precision of climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical analyses and predictions. We developed a comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework, consisting of three major phases: Phase I—Preliminary data exploration, i.e., processing of raw datasets, with the challenging problems of time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase II—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme data; and Phase III—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The paper includes two use cases based on the time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado), and the Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) meteorological station. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control flow guided lock address prefetch and filtering

A method of prefetching target data includes, in response to detecting a lock-prefixed instruction for execution in a processor, determining a predicted target memory location for the lock-prefixed instruction based on control flow information associating the lock-prefixed instruction with the predicted target memory location. Target data is prefetched from the predicted target memory location to a cache coupled with the processor, and after completion of the prefetching, the lock-prefixed instruction is executed in the processor using the prefetched target data.

Mashimo, Susumu↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Voltage Regulation of Distribution Grid Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Model with Exogenous Inputs (NARX)

This article proposes data-driven control via a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) for real-time voltage regulation of a modified feeder using reactive power sources. Traditional voltage control strategies rely on rule-based heuristics or optimization techniques, which often require detailed system models and extensive computational resources. The NARX-based controller learns system dynamics from historical data and predicts optimal reactive power dispatch in real-time for voltage correction. The proposed approach is evaluated on a power system feeder model under varying load and network conditions. Simulation results demonstrate that the NARX-based controller achieves improved voltage regulation, offering higher adaptability to system fluctuations. This study highlights the potential of data-driven control for enhancing the reliability of power distribution networks.

Donge, Vrushabh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306062803)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for HVAC + Phase Change Material Thermal Energy Storage in Buildings

Phase-change material (PCM) thermal-energy storage (TES) integrated with HVAC and domestic hot water (DHW) can shift a large share of building thermal loads. By flattening and shifting loads, PCM TES reduces peak electricity use, eases stress on local and grid infrastructure, and lowers costs. It can also defer costly upgrades to service panels, distribution, and transmission. Higher energy density relative to chilled or hot water storage makes PCM TES practical for small, space limited, and retrofit projects, while packaged HVAC-integrated systems expand cost-effective load shifting to commercial buildings that previously lacked options. Despite this promise, deployment faces barriers. This paper presents challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned from lab and field integrations of PCM TES with packaged HVAC systems. Key challenges include misalignment between default heat pump controls tuned for direct-to-load operation and TES charge/discharge objectives, PCM properties that diverge from manufacturer claims and evolve with cycling, and high integration and deployment costs with off-the-shelf products. These studies underscore the need for factory built, integrated systems that arrive as prepackaged modules with proven controls, reducing design and installation effort and delivering predictable performance across projects. The paper outlines steps to enable viable and scalable PCM TES HVAC and DHW systems, including 1) validated methods that can be used to characterize PCM properties and TES system performance, 2) supervisory controls that optimize charge/discharge scheduling, and 3) factory integrated packaging that eliminates bespoke field engineering.

Dutton, Spencer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feedstock Supply Chain Analysis

Addressing the challenge of biomass feedstock variability that affects the optimization of processing and conversion processes, the project's goal is to maximize biorefinery economics by improving the process quality control of feedstock, which will lead to greater plant availability and predictable yields of high value biofuels and co-products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of MHD stability and active mode control on KSTAR for high confinement, disruption-free plasma

Long-pulse plasma operation at high normalized beta, $β_N$, above the $\textit{n}$= 1 ideal MHD no-wall stability limit in KSTAR is presently limited by tearing instabilities rather than resistive wall modes. H-mode plasma operation during the recent KSTAR device campaign produced discharges having strong $\textit{m/n}$= 2/1 tearing instabilities at $β_N$ lower than the ideal MHD no-wall beta limit. The unstable tearing mode consequently reduced plasma confinement and toroidal plasma rotation significantly. We report the experiment confirmed that an extended duration of electron cyclotron heating (ECH) at the initial phase of the discharge plays a critical role in mode destabilization. To study destabilizing mechanisms that affect the mode growth, the stability of the observed tearing modes from plasmas with significantly different $β_N$ is computed by using the resistive DCON code and the M3D-C 1 code. Equilibrium reconstructions that include constraints from internal profile diagnostics, and computed fast particle pressure are used as input for reliable computation of stability. The classical tearing stability index, Δ', from resistive DCON is computed to be unstable when the island is fully saturated with large amplitude, while the unstable mode is not computed by M3D-C 1 . The modified Rutherford equation (MRE) describing the evolution of the island width has been constructed for KSTAR plasmas by using plasma parameters computed by the TRANSP code. The MRE model estimates a saturated island width corresponding to ~10% of the plasma minor radius for equilibrium at high $β_N$ 3 having a stable Δ' from the resistive DCON. In preparation for long-pulse plasma operation at higher beta utilizing increased plasma heating power, a resistive wall mode (RWM) active feedback control algorithm has been completed and enabled on KSTAR. To accurately determine the $\textit{n}$= 1component produced by RWMs, an algorithm has been developed that includes magnetic sensor compensation of the prompt applied field and the field from the induced current on the passive conductors. Use of multiple toroidal sensor arrays is enabled by modifying the sensor toroidal angles assumed in mode decomposition to include the effect of varied mode helicities in the outboard region where the mode measurement is made. This analysis on stability, transport, and control provides the required foundation for disruption prediction and avoidance research on KSTAR.

resistive wall mode (RWM)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in prediction of tokamak experiments with theory-based models

The successful validation of theory-based models of transport, MHD stability, heating and current drive, with tokamak measurements over the last 20 years, has laid the foundation for a new era where these models can be routinely used in a "predict first" approach to design and predict the outcomes of experiments on tokamaks today. The capability to predict the plasma confinement and core profiles with a quantified uncertainty, based on a multi-machine, international, database of experience, will provide confidence that a proposed discharge will remain within the operational limits of the tokamak. Developing this predictive capability for the first generation of burning plasma devices, beginning with ITER, and progressing to tokamak demonstration reactors, is a critical mission of fusion energy research. Major advances have been made implementing this predict first methodology on today's tokamaks. In this work, an overview of several of these recent advances will be presented, providing the integrated modeling foundations of the experimental successes. The first steps to include boundary plasmas, and tokamak control systems, have been made. A commitment to predicting experiments as part of the planning process is needed in order to collect predictive accuracy data and evolve the models and software into a robust whole discharge pulse design simulator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the regime of thermodynamic control for solid-state reactions during ternary metal oxide synthesis

The success of solid-state synthesis often hinges on the first intermediate phase that forms, which determines the remaining driving force to produce the desired target material. Recent work suggests that when reaction energies are large, thermodynamics primarily dictates the initial product formed, regardless of reactant stoichiometry. Here, we validate this principle and quantify its constraints by performing in situ characterization on 37 pairs of reactants. These experiments reveal a threshold for thermodynamic control in solid-state reactions, whereby initial product formation can be predicted when its driving force exceeds that of all other competing phases by ≥60 milli–electron volt per atom. In contrast, when multiple phases have a comparable driving force to form, the initial product is more often determined by kinetic factors. Analysis of the Materials Project data shows that 15% of possible reactions fall within the regime of thermodynamic control, highlighting the opportunity to predict synthesis pathways from first principles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chespa: Streamlining Expansive Chemical Space Evaluation of Molecular Sets

Thousands of chemical properties can be calculated for small molecules, which can be used to place the molecules within the context of a broader “chemical space.” These definitions vary based on compounds of interest and the goals for the given chemical space definition. Here, we introduce a customizable (i.e., modular) Python module, chespa, built to easily assess different chemical space definitions through cluster-ing of compounds in these spaces and visualize trends of these clusters. To demonstrate this, chespa currently streamlines prediction of vari-ous molecule descriptors (predicted chemical properties, molecular substructures, AI-based chemical space, and chemical class ontology) in order to test 6 different chemical space definitions. Furthermore, we investigated how these varying definitions trend with mass spectrometry (MS)-based observability, i.e., the ability of a molecule to be observed with MS (e.g., as a function of the molecule ionizability), using an example data set from the U.S. EPA's Non-Targeted Analysis Collaborative Trial (ENTACT), where blinded samples had been analyzed previously, providing 1,398 data points. Improved understanding of observability would offer many advantages in small molecule identifica-tion, such as (i) a priori selection of experimental conditions based on suspected sample composition, (ii) the ability to reduce the number of candidate structures during compound identification by removing those less likely to ionize, and, in turn, (iii) a reduced false discovery rate and increased confidence in identifications. Factors controlling observability are not fully understood, making prediction of this property non-trivial and a prime candidate for chemical space analysis. Chespa is available at github.com/pnnl/chespa.

Nunez, Jamie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electronic Structure Progression across the ACu 2 Q 2 (MQ 2 ) n Semiconductor Series

Moving beyond the engineering of known materials and elemental substitution within common structure types is critical for designing unique properties. Here, we present a new homologous series, ACu 2 Q 2 (MQ 2 ) n (A = Sr, Ba, 2Na; MQ 2 = ZrS2, HfSe 2 ), establishing 11 new members. In β-BaCu 2 Q 2 and Na 2 Cu 2 Se 2 (n = 0), the [Cu 2 Q 2 ] 2– motifs extend in two dimensions, whereas those in α-BaCu 2 Q 2 extend in three dimensions. Hence, there are two structural evolutions within the ACu 2 Q 2 (MQ 2 )n family driven by the polymorphism of the host structures. MQ 2 (n → ∞) displays 2D layers of edge-sharing [MQ 6 ] 8– octahedra that are 1-octahedron-thick and connected via van der Waals bonding. Each insertion of MQ 2 into ACu 2 Q 2 incorporates [MQ 6 ] 8– octahedra extending infinitely in one direction, confined to being 1-octahedron-thick in the second direction, with n controlling the number of [MQ 6 ] 8– octahedra in the third direction. Therefore, increasing n predictively expands the [Cu 2 MnQ 2n+2 ] 2– network in the direction controlled by n and relative to the A + /A 2+ ions. We demonstrate that for a given set of elements, one can enforce a “Host(Insertion)n” formula to systematically evolve both crystal and electronic structures from the host (n = 0) to the insertion (n → ∞) materials through intermediate values of n. Specifically, the energetic misalignment of the electronic band extrema of the parents predictively determines the band extrema and the resulting band gaps of all intermediate n members.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecovoltaic solar energy development can promote grassland bird communities

Ecologically informed photovoltaic (PV) developments that co-prioritize PV electricity generation with ecosystem function (‘ecovoltaics’) have emerged as a promising land sharing strategy to minimize ecological conflicts associated with PV solar energy development. While habitat-focused ecovoltaic designs can conceptually benefit biodiversity by offsetting or enhancing impacts of PV development, foundational field research is needed to examine how wildlife respond to these novel ecosystems. We conducted passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in 2023 and 2024 at 13 solar facilities and paired control sites to investigate avian community responses to ecovoltaic facilities in the Midwestern United States. Compared to control sites (row crop agricultural fields), we found that ecovoltaic sites supported more grassland bird species throughout a 17-week monitoring period between May and September. Grassland bird communities on ecovoltaic sites were also more stable than on agricultural controls, as measured by the Jaccard dissimilarity index. We also used PAM-based weekly species occurrences in an occupancy-modelling framework to investigate the influence of PV development and other landscape variables on grassland bird occupancy. 10 out of 13 modelled grassland bird species had greater predicted occupancy probabilities (ψ) on PV sites than control sites. Synthesis and applications. Our findings suggest that properly sited and developed ecovoltaic solar facilities in human altered landscapes can improve habitat for birds and other wildlife, but further research is needed to understand which species may benefit most from these novel ecosystems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Arbitrary electro-optic bandwidth and frequency control in lithium niobate optical resonators

In situ tunable photonic filters and memories are important for emerging quantum and classical optics technologies. However, most photonic devices have fixed resonances and bandwidths determined at the time of fabrication. Here we present an in situ tunable optical resonator on thin-film lithium niobate. By leveraging the linear electro-optic effect, we demonstrate widely tunable control over resonator frequency and bandwidth on two different devices. We observe up to ∼50 × tuning in the bandwidth over ∼50 V with linear frequency control of ∼230 MHz/V. We also develop a closed-form model predicting the tuning behavior of the device. This paves the way for rapid phase and amplitude control over light transmitted through our device.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous Closed-Loop Experimental Characterization and Dynamic Model Validation of a Scaled Underwater Kite

This paper presents the closed-loop experimental framework and dynamic model validation for a 1/12-scale underwater kite design. The pool-based tow testing framework described herein, which involves a fully actuated, closed-loop controlled kite and flexible tether, significantly expands upon the capabilities of any previously developed open-source framework for experimental underwater kite characterization. Specifically, the framework has allowed for the validation of three closed-loop flight control strategies, along with a critical comparison between dynamic model predictions and experimental results. In this paper, we provide a detailed presentation of the experimental tow system and kite setup, describe the control algorithms implemented and tested, and quantify the level of agreement between our multi-degree-of-freedom kite dynamic model and experimental data. Finally, we also present a sensitivity analysis that helps to identify the most influential parameters to kite performance and further explain the remaining mismatches between the model and data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of operational strategies for rich gas enhanced oil recovery based on a pilot test in the Bakken tight oil reservoir

Horizontal well drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing have been demonstrated as effective approaches for stimulating oil production in the Bakken tight oil reservoir. However, after multiple years of production, primary oil recovery in the Bakken is generally less than 10% of the estimated original oil in place. Gas huff ‘n’ puff (HnP) has been tested in the Bakken Formation as an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) method; however, most field pilot test results showed no significant incremental oil production. One of the factors affecting HnP EOR performance is premature gas breakthrough, which is one of the most critical issues observed in the field because of the presence of interwell fractures. Consequently, injected gas rapidly reaches adjacent production wells without contacting reservoir rock and increasing oil recovery. Proper conformance control is therefore needed to avoid early gas breakthrough and improve EOR performance. In this study, a rich gas EOR pilot in the Bakken was carefully analyzed to collect the essential reservoir and operational data. A simulation model with 16 wells was then developed to reproduce the production history and predict the EOR performance with and without conformance control. EOR operational strategies, including single- and multiple-well HnP, with different gas injection constraints were investigated. The simulation results of single-well HnP without conformance control showed that a rich gas injection rate of at least 10 MMscfd was needed to yield meaningful incremental oil production. The strategy of conformance control via water injection could significantly improve oil production in the HnP well, but injecting an excessive amount of water also leads to water breakthrough and loss of oil production in the offset wells. By analyzing the production performance of the wells individually, the arrangement of wells was optimized for multiple-well HnP EOR. The multiwell results showed that rich gas EOR could improve oil production up to 7.4% by employing conformance control strategies. Furthermore, replacing rich gas with propane as the injection gas could result in 14% of incremental oil production.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning framework for layer-wise porosity prediction in metal powder bed fusion using thermal signatures

Abstract Part quality manufactured by the laser powder bed fusion process is significantly affected by porosity. Existing works of process–property relationships for porosity prediction require many experiments or computationally expensive simulations without considering environmental variations. While efforts that adopt real-time monitoring sensors can only detect porosity after its occurrence rather than predicting it ahead of time. In this study, a novel porosity detection-prediction framework is proposed based on deep learning that predicts porosity in the next layer based on thermal signatures of the previous layers. The proposed framework is validated in terms of its ability to accurately predict lack of fusion porosity using computerized tomography (CT) scans, which achieves a F1-score of 0.75. The framework presented in this work can be effectively applied to quality control in additive manufacturing. As a function of the predicted porosity positions, laser process parameters in the next layer can be adjusted to avoid more part porosity in the future or the existing porosity could be filled. If the predicted part porosity is not acceptable regardless of laser parameters, the building process can be stopped to minimize the loss.

42 ENGINEERING↗