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At least 937 records · Page 52

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design and analysis of a wake model for spatially heterogeneous flow

Abstract. Methods of turbine wake modeling are being developed to more accurately account for spatially variant atmospheric conditions within wind farms. Most current wake modeling utilities are designed to apply a uniform flow field to the entire domain of a wind farm. When this method is used, the accuracy of power prediction and wind farm controls can be compromised depending on the flow-field characteristics of a particular area. In an effort to improve strategies of wind farm wake modeling and power prediction, FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) was developed to implement sophisticated methods of atmospheric characterization and power output calculation. In this paper, we describe an adapted FLORIS model that features spatial heterogeneity in flow-field characterization. This model approximates an observed flow field by interpolating from a set of atmospheric measurements that represent local weather conditions. The objective of this method is to capture heterogeneous atmospheric effects caused by site-specific terrain features, without explicitly modeling the geometry of the wind farm terrain. The implemented adaptations were validated by comparing the simulated power predictions generated from FLORIS to the actual recorded wind farm output from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) recordings and large eddy simulations (LESs). When comparing the performance of the proposed heterogeneous model to homogeneous FLORIS simulations, the results show a 14.6 % decrease for mean absolute error (MAE) in wind farm power output predictions for cases using wind farm SCADA data and a 18.9 % decrease in LES case studies. The results of these studies also indicate that the efficacy of the proposed modeling techniques may vary with differing site-specific operational conditions. This work quantifies the accuracy of wind plant power predictions under heterogeneous flow conditions and establishes best practices for atmospheric surveying for wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Scalable Bayesian Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Compressor is A Sensor (Final Report)

The performance of the heat pump system varies greatly depending on the refrigerant charge amount. Improving the refrigerant charge fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) method of vapor compression systems have the potential for increasing energy efficiency and reducing service cost. Previous studies to predict refrigerant charge amount are mostly empirical methods which require significant amount of experimental data for high accuracy. The primary goal of this research is to develop a charge fault detection method which requires only a few experimental data with high prediction accuracy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Prediction of Redox Potentials for the Late Actinides Cm to Lr Using Electronic Structure Methods

Our previously developed computational method for calculating the aqueous redox potentials of the early actinides has been extended to the later elements in the actinide series: Cm, Bk, Cf, Es, Fm, Md, No, and Lr in multiple oxidation states. These calculations were performed using density functional theory with small-core pseudopotentials and their associated basis sets. Solvation effects were considered via a supermolecule-continuum approach, with 30 water molecules representing two solvation shells. Both the COSMO and SMD implicit solvation models were utilized. The structural parameters and hydration numbers for Cm(III), Bk(III), Bk(IV), and Cf(III) are in reasonable agreement with the available experimental data. For redox processes involving atomic cations in solution, the B3LYP/COSMO approach predicted redox potentials to within ±0.2 V of experiment for most redox couples, consistent with our prior work. Inclusion of spin-orbit corrections in specific redox pairs, especially those with the later actinides in high oxidation states, yields improved results relative to calculations including only scalar-relativistic corrections. The An +m /An(0) redox potentials were calculated using a Born-Haber cycle incorporating sublimation, ionization, and hydration energies. Due to a lack of experimental data, three sets of ionization energies were used for the Born-Haber cycle. The calculated An(III/0) potentials showed better agreement with experimental data when using the COSMO solvation model and the test set comprising the NIST recommended ionization energies. Furthermore, the Md(II/0) potential was better described with the SMD model, whereas No(II/0) was not well described by all methods. Finally, the computational approach was able to predict redox potentials that for most cases agreed with the current available experimental or estimated data.

Actinides↗

RNA target highlights in CASP15 : Evaluation of predicted models by structure providers

Abstract The first RNA category of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction competition was only made possible because of the scientists who provided experimental structures to challenge the predictors. In this article, these scientists offer a unique and valuable analysis of both the successes and areas for improvement in the predicted models. All 10 RNA‐only targets yielded predictions topologically similar to experimentally determined structures. For one target, experimentalists were able to phase their x‐ray diffraction data by molecular replacement, showing a potential application of structure predictions for RNA structural biologists. Recommended areas for improvement include: enhancing the accuracy in local interaction predictions and increased consideration of the experimental conditions such as multimerization, structure determination method, and time along folding pathways. The prediction of RNA–protein complexes remains the most significant challenge. Finally, given the intrinsic flexibility of many RNAs, we propose the consideration of ensemble models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Conditional Latent Diffusion for High-Resolution Prediction of Electrochemical Surface Morphology

A conditionally guided generative latent diffusion process that is trained on a set of experimental processing parameters and their associated resulting electron microscope images of the electrodeposition process is able to interpolate between processing parameters in a physically consistent way. Electrodeposition of rhenium with pulse and pulse-reverse waveforms is used as a model system, and the process is adaptable to other electrodeposition, electropolishing, or corrosion processes. The method is able to extrapolate, predicting estimates of material morphologies for experimental setups unseen in the training data. The results are demonstrated with experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting Radiation-Induced Plutonium Redox Chemistry using Multi-scale Modeling Methods

Over the the last 70 years plutonium (Pu) has been integral in the development of several technologies that have changed the world, yet our fundamental understanding of its chemistry is still far from complete. This is a testament to this element’s unique and complex properties, such as its ability to coexist as multiple oxidation states in aqueous solution. Careful manipulation of plutonium oxidation states is essential in the study and utilization of its rich chemistry. To achieve this level of control, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry is critical due to the unavoidable exposure of plutonium to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. For this reason, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multi-scale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu(IV) redox chemistry in concentrated nitric acid solutions (1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 M). Under these acidic, aqueous solution conditions, cobalt-60 gamma irradiation afforded negligible net change in the steady-state oxidation state distribution of Pu(IV). Multi-scale calculations, which are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicate that this observation is due to radiation-induced redox cycling between Pu(IV) and Pu(III), as achieved by the reduction of Pu(IV) by radiolytic nitrous acid and hydrogen peroxide, and the oxidation of Pu(III) by nitrate and hydroxyl radicals. These radiation-induced redox processes are augmented by plutonium’s inherent disproportionation reactions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Reactor antineutrino flux and anomaly

Reactor antineutrinos have played a significant role in establishing the standard model of particle physics and the theory of neutrino oscillations. In this article, we review the reactor antineutrino flux and in particular the reactor antineutrino anomaly (RAA) coined over a decade ago. RAA refers to a deficit of the measured antineutrino inverse beta decay rates at very short-baseline reactor experiments compared to the theoretically improved predictions (i.e. the Huber–Mueller model). Since the resolution of several previous experimental anomalies have led to the discovery of non-zero neutrino mass and mixing, many efforts have been invested to study the origin of RAA both experimentally and theoretically. The progress includes the observation of discrepancies in antineutrino energy spectrum between data and the Huber–Mueller model, the re-evaluation of the Huber–Mueller model uncertainties, the potential isotope-dependent rate deficits, and the better agreement between data and new model predictions using the improved summation method. Importantly, these developments disfavor the hypothesis of a light sterile neutrino as the explanation of RAA and supports the deficiencies of Huber–Mueller model as the origin. Looking forward, more effort from both the theoretical and experimental sides is needed to fully understand the root of RAA and to make accurate predictions of reactor antineutrino flux and energy spectrum for future discoveries.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Machine Learned Empirical Numerical Integrator from Simulated Data

Recently, a number of state-of-the-art surrogate machine learning (ML) models have been designed for global weather and climate prediction, which have been trained using reanalysis data products. Reanalysis data products are constructed using numerical model simulations that combine numerical integration of partial differential equations and parameterization schemes. These products are typically only archived and made available using coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions. This study explores the impact of the numerical generation methods used to produce the training datasets and the temporal resolution of those datasets on machine learning surrogate models. Using the nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) machine as an explainable ML technique, simple dynamical systems are emulated with ML models trained on data produced by three classical numerical integration schemes. NVAR is validated as a skillful ML method, capable of producing accurate predictions and, more importantly, reconstructing both the underlying dynamics and the numerical integration scheme used to generate the training data. However, the machine fails to generalize predictions on unseen test data generated by different numerical integration schemes, despite the underlying dynamical system being the same. This result provides a word of caution for the growing field of machine learning emulation of weather and climate dynamics. Furthermore, we illustrate using NVAR that training on temporally coarsened data may increase the required complexity of ML models and potentially introduce new numerical challenges. Finally, we discover that empirical integration schemes with arbitrary time-stepping sizes can be constructed directly from the data, which implies a potential for the development of empirical numerical integration schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capturing the Relative‐Humidity‐Sensitive Gas–Particle Partitioning of Organic Aerosols in a 2D Volatility Basis Set

Abstract Aerosol water affects the physicochemical properties and mass concentration of organic aerosols (OA), but it is typically omitted by air quality, weather, and climate models. We compare two classes of simplified models to estimate the OA water uptake and gas–particle partitioning of organic compounds. One class uses a single‐hygroscopicity‐parameter (κ) approach while the other is based on the reduced‐complexity Binary Activity Thermodynamics (BAT) model. We show that a BAT‐based two‐dimensional volatility basis set (VBS) model always predicts a higher OA mass concentration at elevated relative humidity (RH), for example, ∼16% at 80% RH, than any variation of theκ‐based method considered—even when BAT‐VBS predicts a lower water uptake. The main reason being that the BAT‐VBS model captures variations in effective saturation mass concentration of organics (C*) with RH, a feature that other VBS methods lack. The BAT‐VBS framework offers an efficient, RH‐sensitive treatment for reduced‐complexity OA modeling.

Geology↗

Leveraging Inequality-Constrained Data for Enhanced Liquidus Temperature Prediction in Nuclear Waste Glass Melts

Inequality-constrained data are frequently discarded in engineering, leading to significant information loss in data-scarce domains like glass characterization in nuclear waste vitrification. This paper presents a nonparametric censored-data regression framework based on an l1-norm optimization criterion that leverages slack variables to integrate left-, right-, and interval-constrained observations into training without distributional assumptions. Validated on synthetic data and a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) for predicting liquidus temperature (TL), the method improved R2 from 0.60 to 0.89 and reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 48% (51.46 to 26.89?rC) on deterministic values. The traditional models failed to satisfy any inequality constraints while the proposed l1-norm PINN satisfies 81.25% of the constraints. The proposed framework effectively extracts actionable information from previously unusable data to enhance predictive accuracy, reduce epistemic uncertainty, and ensure physical consistency in complex industrial applications.

Garcia-Morado, Erick↗

Physics-constrained machine learning for electrodynamics without gauge ambiguity based on Fourier transformed Maxwell’s equations

We utilize a Fourier transformation-based representation of Maxwell’s equations to develop physics-constrained neural networks for electrodynamics without gauge ambiguity, which we label the Fourier–Helmholtz–Maxwell neural operator method. In this approach, both of Gauss’s laws and Faraday’s law are built in as hard constraints, as well as the longitudinal component of Ampère–Maxwell in Fourier space, assuming the continuity equation. An encoder–decoder network acts as a solution operator for the transverse components of the Fourier transformed vector potential, $\hat{A}_⟂(k,t)$, whose two degrees of freedom are used to predict the electromagnetic fields. This method was tested on two electron beam simulations. Among the models investigated, it was found that a U-Net architecture exhibited the best performance as it trained quicker, was more accurate and generalized better than the other architectures examined. We demonstrate that our approach is useful for solving Maxwell’s equations for the electromagnetic fields generated by intense relativistic charged particle beams and that it generalizes well to unseen test data, while being orders of magnitude quicker than conventional simulations. We show that the model can be re-trained to make highly accurate predictions in as few as 20 epochs on a previously unseen data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

AI-Based Protein Interaction Screening and Identification (AISID)

In this study, we presented an AISID method extending AlphaFold-Multimer’s success in structure prediction towards identifying specific protein interactions with an optimized AISIDscore. The method was tested to identify the binding proteins in 18 human TNFSF (Tumor Necrosis Factor superfamily) members for each of 27 human TNFRSF (TNF receptor superfamily) members. For each TNFRSF member, we ranked the AISIDscore among the 18 TNFSF members. The correct pairing resulted in the highest AISIDscore for 13 out of 24 TNFRSF members which have known interactions with TNFSF members. Out of the 33 correct pairing between TNFSF and TNFRSF members, 28 pairs could be found in the top five (including 25 pairs in the top three) seats in the AISIDscore ranking. Surprisingly, the specific interactions between TNFSF10 (TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, TRAIL) and its decoy receptors DcR1 and DcR2 gave the highest AISIDscore in the list, while the structures of DcR1 and DcR2 are unknown. The data strongly suggests that AlphaFold-Multimer might be a useful computational screening tool to find novel specific protein bindings. This AISID method may have broad applications in protein biochemistry, extending the application of AlphaFold far beyond structure predictions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Black-box statistical prediction of lossy compression ratios for scientific data

Lossy compressors are increasingly adopted in scientific research, tackling volumes of data from experiments or parallel numerical simulations and facilitating data storage and movement. In contrast with the notion of entropy in lossless compression, no theoretical or data-based quantification of lossy compressibility exists for scientific data. Users rely on trial and error to assess lossy compression performance. As a strong data-driven effort toward quantifying lossy compressibility of scientific datasets, we provide a statistical framework to predict compression ratios of lossy compressors. Our method is a two-step framework where (i) compressor-agnostic predictors are computed and (ii) statistical prediction models relying on these predictors are trained on observed compression ratios. Proposed predictors exploit spatial correlations and notions of entropy and lossyness via the quantized entropy. We study 8+ compressors on 6 scientific datasets and achieve a median percentage prediction error less than 12%, which is substantially smaller than that of other methods while achieving at least a 8.8× speedup for searching for a specific compression ratio and 7.8× speedup for determining the best compressor out of a collection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hardware-Based Emulator with Deep Learning Model for Building Energy Control and Prediction Based on Occupancy Sensors’ Data

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest source of residential energy consumption. Occupancy sensors’ data can be used for HVAC control since it indicates the number of people in the building. HVAC and sensors form a typical cyber-physical system (CPS). In this paper, we aim to build a hardware-based emulation platform to study the occupancy data’s features, which can be further extracted by using machine learning models. In particular, we propose two hardware-based emulators to investigate the use of wired/wireless communication interfaces for occupancy sensor-based building CPS control, and the use of deep learning to predict the building energy consumption with the sensor data. We hypothesize is that the building energy consumption may be predicted by using the occupancy data collected by the sensors, and question what type of prediction model should be used to accurately predict the energy load. Another hypothesis is that an in-lab hardware/software platform could be built to emulate the occupancy sensing process. The machine learning algorithms can then be used to analyze the energy load based on the sensing data. To test the emulator, the occupancy data from the sensors is used to predict energy consumption. The synchronization scheme between sensors and the HVAC server will be discussed. We have built two hardware/software emulation platforms to investigate the sensor/HVAC integration strategies, and used an enhanced deep learning model—which has sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (Seq2Seq LSTM)—with an attention model to predict the building energy consumption with the preservation of the intrinsic patterns. Because the long-range temporal dependencies are captured, the Seq2Seq models may provide a higher accuracy by using LSTM architectures with encoder and decoder. Meanwhile, LSTMs can capture the temporal and spatial patterns of time series data. The attention model can highlight the most relevant input information in the energy prediction by allocating the attention weights. The communication overhead between the sensors and the HVAC control server can also be alleviated via the attention mechanism, which can automatically ignore the irrelevant information and amplify the relevant information during CNN training. Our experiments and performance analysis show that, compared with the traditional LSTM neural network, the performance of the proposed method has a 30% higher prediction accuracy.

Ye, Zhijing↗

Spinodal enhancement of fluctuations in nucleus-nucleus collisions

Subensemble Acceptance Method (SAM) [1, 2] is an essential link between measured event-by-event fluctuations and their grand canonical theoretical predictions such as lattice QCD. The method allows quantifying the global conservation law effects in fluctuations. In its basic formulation, SAM requires a sufficiently large system such as created in central nucleus-nucleus collisions and sufficient space-momentum correlations. Directly in the spinodal region of the First Order Phase Transition (FOPT) different approximations should be used that account for finite size effects. Thus, we present the generalization of SAM applicable in both the pure phases, metastable and unstable regions of the phase diagram [3]. Obtained analytic formulas indicate the enhancement of fluctuations due to crossing the spinodal region of FOPT and are tested using molecular dynamics simulations. A rather good agreement is observed. Using transport model calculations with interaction potential we show that the spinodal enhancement of fluctuations survives till the later stages of collision via the memory effect [4]. However, at low collision energies the space-momentum correlation is not strong enough for this signal to be transferred to second and third order cumulants measured in momentum subspace. This result agrees well with recent HADES data on proton number fluctuations at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 2.4 GeV which are found to be consistent with the binomial momentum space acceptance [5].

Poberezhnyuk, Roman↗