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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Status of Moog SureFly Hover Test and Progress on Noise Prediction Efforts

An update on the Moog SureFly vehicle acoustic hover test and predictions is presented. Data were acquired for a 15’ hover altitude. Preliminary predictions using CAMRAD coupled with ANOPP have been completed. The predictions are currently using a generic blade geometry. High resolution blade scans have been initiated for the same type of rotor as that used on the SureFly vehicle and the resulting coordinates will be implemented in future prediction efforts. Plans for a future hover test at higher altitudes are discussed.

jet noise↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Artificial Neural Network Approach to Predict Rotor-Airframe Acoustic Waveforms

A surrogate artificial neural network/machine learning model was developed to predict the acoustic interaction for a fixed-pitch rotor in proximity to a downstream cylindrical airframe typical of small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) platforms. The model was trained to predict the acoustic waveform under representative hover conditions as a function of rotational speed, airframe proximity, and observer angle. Training data were acquired in an anechoic chamber on both isolated rotors and rotor-airframe configurations. Acoustic amplitude and phase of the revolution-averaged interaction were predicted, which required up to 25 harmonics to capture the impulse event caused by the blade’s approach and departure from the airframe. Prediction performance showed, on average, that the models could estimate the acoustic amplitude and phase over the relevant harmonics for unseen conditions with 86% and 75% accuracy, respectively, enabling a time domain reconstruction of the waveform for the range of geometric and flow parameters tested.

acoustics↗
NASA NTRS2023

Development of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3)

Robust prediction of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is among the key priorities of the space weather community. In the framework of NASA’s Early Stage Innovation Program, we develop the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3: https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow the users to retrieve the database records. In particular, SEP3 lists the API examples to query each data source potentially important for the SEP prediction. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs (https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3/search.php) and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. In addition, we have added a CDAW SEP catalog and a LASCO/SOHO CME catalog and introduced the possibility of displaying the properties of the connected events (parental solar flares and CMEs for SEPs) on the search page. The interactive widget has the capability to display GOES soft X-ray and proton flux time series from different satellites with the GOES flare records on top of them. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of the solar proton events based on the statistical properties of the GOES soft X-ray and proton fluxes and investigate machine-learning approaches to the SEP prediction.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Artificial Neural Network Approach to Predict Rotor-Airframe Acoustic Waveforms

A surrogate artificial neural network/machine learning model was developed to predict the acoustic interaction for a fixed-pitch rotor in proximity to a downstream cylindrical airframe typical of small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) platforms. The model was trained to predict the acoustic waveform under representative hover conditions as a function of rotational speed, airframe proximity, and observer angle. Training data were acquired in an anechoic chamber on both isolated rotors and rotor-airframe configurations. Acoustic amplitude and phase of the revolution-averaged interaction were predicted, which required up to 25 harmonics to capture the impulse event caused by the blade’s approach and departure from the airframe. Prediction performance showed, on average, that the models could estimate the acoustic amplitude and phase over the relevant harmonics for unseen conditions with 86% and 75% accuracy, respectively, enabling a time domain reconstruction of the waveform for the range of geometric and flow parameters tested.

acoustics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictions of Line Chilldown Boiling Regime Transitions by a Coupled CFD-Sub-Grid Boiling Model Validated against 1G LN2 Experiments

Propellant storage and transfer during future long-duration missions will involve fuel depot operations in which a donor depot tank is used to fill a receiver spacecraft tank with a cryogenic propellant. Prior to the on-Orbit filling operation both the receiver tank and the transfer line must be cooled. The line chilldown process involves transition between boiling regimes in microgravity that will be quite different from their 1g ground-based counterparts. Since the cryogenic propellant itself will be used to perform the chilldown process, the time constants to cool the wall and the amount of fuel that will be used become important design considerations. In this light, the focus of the present work is to capture the flow boiling characteristics of a cryogenic fluid, namely, liquid nitrogen, during the chill-down of a transfer line using CFD modelling and simulations. The cryogenic chill-down process involves different flow boiling regimes: film boiling, transition boiling and nucleate boiling. The prediction of transition between these regimes in a CFD framework is new and challenging. The present work addresses this challenge by employing a volume-of-fluid (VOF) based methodology with Lee phase change model to predict the film boiling regime of the chill-down process in ANSYS Fluent®. The transition and nucleate boiling regimes are predicted by incorporating a sub-grid model that accounts for bubble nucleation, growth, shedding frequency, and departure diameter. The sub-grid model is implemented into Fluent via a user-defined function for wall-fluid heat flux calculations. The sub-grid model is similar in formulation to the well-known Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) boiling model. The CFD model is validated against published experimental data for liquid nitrogen chill-down of a heated stainless-steel pipe in 1g. Predicted results shows good agreement of wall temperature, rewetting temperature, and transition between film and nucleate boiling with the experimental measurements for several different LN2 flowrates in the vertical orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of this modeling approach are presented and discussed.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗
NASA NTRS2024

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages

Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Critical Heat Flux of Liquid Hydrogen, Liquid Methane, and Liquid Oxygen: A Review of Available Data and Predictive Tools

Available experimental data dealing with critical heat flux (CHF) of liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ), liquid methane (LCH 4 ), and liquid oxygen (LO 2 ) in pool and flow boiling are compiled. The compiled data are compared with widely used correlations. Experimental pool boiling CHF data for the aforementioned cryogens are scarce. Based on only 25 data points found in five independent sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for predicting the pool CHF of LH 2 . Only two experiments with useful CHF data for the pool boiling of LCH 4 could be found. Four different correlations including the correlation of Lurie and Noyes (1964) can predict the pool boiling CHF of LCH 4 within a factor of two for more than 70% of the data. Furthermore, based on the 19 data points taken from only two available sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for the prediction of pool CHF of LO 2 . Flow boiling CHF data for LH 2 could be found in seven experimental studies, five of them from the same source. Based on the 91 data points, it is suggested that the correlation of Katto and Ohno (1984) be used to predict the flow CHF of LH 2 . No useful data could be found for flow boiling CHF of LCH 4 or LO 2 . The available databases for flow boiling of LCH 4 and LO 2 are generally deficient in all boiling regimes. This deficiency is particularly serious with respect to flow boiling.

Multi-Phase Flow↗
NASA NTRS2023

Critical Heat Flux of Liquid Hydrogen, Liquid Methane, and Liquid Oxygen: A Review of Available Data and Predictive Tools

Available experimental data dealing with critical heat flux (CHF) of liquid hydrogen (LH2), liquid methane (LCH4), and liquid oxygen (LO2) in pool and flow boiling are compiled. The compiled data are compared with widely used correlations. Experimental pool boiling CHF data for the aforementioned cryogens are scarce. Based on only 25 data points found in five independent sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for predicting the pool CHF of LH2. Only two experiments with useful CHF data for the pool boiling of LCH4 could be found. Four different correlations including the correlation of Lurie and Noyes (1964) can predict the pool boiling CHF of LCH4 within a factor of two for more than 70% of the data. Furthermore, based on the 19 data points taken from only two available sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for the prediction of pool CHF of LO2. Flow boiling CHF data for LH2 could be found in seven experimental studies, five of them from the same source. Based on the 91 data points, it is suggested that the correlation of Katto and Ohno (1984) be used to predict the flow CHF of LH2. No useful data could be found for flow boiling CHF of LCH4 or LO2. The available databases for flow boiling of LCH4 and LO2 are generally deficient in all boiling regimes. This deficiency is particularly serious with respect to flow boiling.

Multi-Phase Flow↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival Using A Supervised Learning Approach

We present a novel data-driven approach for prediction of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of aircraft in the terminal area via the implementation of a Random Forest regression model. The model uses data fused from a number of sources (flight track, weather, flight plan information, etc.) and provides predictions for the remaining flight time for aircraft landing at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. The predictions are made when the aircraft is at a distance of 200-miles from the airport. The results show that the model is able to predict estimated time of arrival to within ± 5 min for 90% of the flights in the test data with the mean absolute error being lower at 145 seconds. This paper covers the entire pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, setup and training of the ML model, and the results obtained for DFW.

Machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of TAO Observation System on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Since the early 1990’s, the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array has been instrumental for observing Kelvin and Rossby wave propagation which is key for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. However, recent funding and programmatical issues have highlighted the need to rigorously assess the impact of the TAO observing system on ENSO predictions. Therefore, we evaluate the TAO using data assimilation observation denial experiments (also known as Observing System Evaluation or OSE experiments). This presentation will evaluate the TAO observing impact on both reanalyses and prediction of the big 2015 El Nino. We have completed reanalyses for July 2014-Dec 2015 for both the CONTROL experiment (that assimilates all available data) and the NOTAO experiment (that is identical to the CONTROL but withholds all TAO observations) using the best available NASA GEOS-S2S V3 seasonal prediction system. Validation of these reanalyses shows that TAO assimilation generally improves comparisons of temperature and salinity versus gridded in situ observations. Temperature is universally improved above the thermocline near the equator, but the biggest improvement is found in the eastern Pacific, just below the thermocline, where the variation of the thermocline defines ENSO events. In addition, a surprising result is that even with relatively few observations, salinity is improved throughout the equatorial region except near 120oW near the surface. ENSO forecasts were performed that were initialized from these CONTROL and NOTAO reanalyses. For the 9-month forecasts which were initialized in January, July, and October 2015, the NINO3.4 SST shows that the CONTROL forecasts are warmer and closer to observations than the NOTAO forecasts. We will show that upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer amplifies the ENSO signal due to TAO assimilation. Prior to (after) April 2015, this upwelling is caused by relatively stronger Rossby (Kelvin) waves in the CONTROL than in the NOTAO experiments.

E. Hackert↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On Generalizably Improving RANS Predictions of Flow Separation and Reattachment

This work presents progress in an ongoing data-driven turbulence modeling effort at NASA Langley Research Center to improve predictions for separated flows. Two augmentation strategies are presented – one to improve predictions for the point of reattachment after smooth-body separation, and another to improve predictions for flow separation due to prolonged adverse pressure gradients. The reattachment augmentation was inspired from lessons learned during attempts at using field inversion and machine learning (FIML); however, it is prescribed as a conventional analytic closed-form expression. Results show that, when introduced into the SST k-w model, it shortens the otherwise overpredicted separation bubble length for three cases characterized by different Reynolds numbers and flow geometries. The second augmentation, which addresses flow separation under prolonged adverse pressure gradients, is inferred via FIML and applied as a neural network within the Spalart-Allmaras model. It uses features that are chosen such that the presented results show an improved predictive accuracy for the training case without affecting other cases where the augmentation is not needed. Further testing is required to establish the generalizability of this augmentation. The rationale behind the chosen features that serve as inputs to both these augmentations is also presented for the benefit of the reader.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

State-Specific Kinetic Modeling for Predictions of Radiative Heating in H 2 /He Entry Flows

A 23-species State-to-State (StS) thermochemical model for H 2 /He mixtures is developed and used to simulate 1-D shocks at conditions relevant for ice and gas giant entry flows. To implement this StS model, a literature review of the state-specific excitation and ionization rates of atomic H is first performed. While electron impact rates from various sources are found to be in relatively good agreement, large discrepancies are found in the limited data available on heavy particle impact rates. To investigate the impact of these discrepancies on the predicted shock and radiance profiles, simulations are performed for three different versions of the kinetic model, each with a different set of heavy particle impact rates from the literature. Of these three models, two are found to over-predict and one is found to under-predict the radiance values seen in corresponding experimental data from the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. A sensitivity analysis to the electron and heavy particle impact rates is then performed, from which an improved kinetic model with modified rates is proposed. This modified kinetic model is found to reproduce the total integrated radiance seen in the EAST experiments accurately. This suggests that the associated radiative heating that would be encountered by an entry probe in these environments would be well predicted by this kinetic model. However, some discrepancies are still found i the relative contributions to the total radiance from different spectral features, suggesting that additional improvements to the kinetic model still need to be made.

Outer Planet↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗
NASA NTRS2024

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

rare earth silicates↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal Prediction of an Extreme Temperature Index over the United States

Heat extremes have the potential to cause significant societal harm; advanced warming of the frequency of these events for a given season could help with planning and mitigation measures. While an individual temperature extreme event may not be predictable on seasonal time scales, the number of such events could be. In this study, we use an index representing the number of extreme days per summer to examine the ability of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system to predict summertime temperature extremes over the continental United States. The index is defined as the number of days per summer (June-August) where the daily mean temperature is above the calendar-day 90th percentile and is computed for 1991-2020 using the GEOS-S2S seasonal retrospective forecasts as well as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). Temporal correlations are assessed over this period at the grid point scale, indicating significant correlation between the retrospective forecasts and MERRA-2, particularly in the western half of the United States. Spatial correlations between the retrospective forecast and MERRA-2 indices are computed over the United States for each year revealing year-to-year variability in the forecast skill. We investigate local and remote processes associated with increased prediction skill of summertime temperature extremes in a given year.

Natalie Thomas↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Land-Atmosphere Coupling Simulation and Its Role in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling can significantly influence subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. During periods of strong L-A coupling, land-atmosphere feedbacks are expected to enhance the memory of the system and therefore also the predictability and prediction skill. This study aims to evaluate S2S prediction of ambient surface air temperature under conditions of strong versus weak L-A coupling in forecasts.

Yuna Lim↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Inlet Broadband Acoustic Liner Predictions to Quiet Technology Demonstrator 3 Flight Data

Companion acoustic liner attenuation predictions and flight data representative of certification conditions are analyzed to determine the validation quality and gain an understanding of current prediction shortcomings. These comparisons are limited to the inlet broadband component of fan noise. Two prediction methods are assessed: a traditional, semiempirical model, and a computational approach with a parabolic duct propagation code coupled with a Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings solver for free-field propagation. The semiempirical method is widely used for aircraft system noise predictions, but does not explicitly account for several physical parameters important for sound attenuation. The computational approach includes these effects, but requires a significant increase in cycle time. For the three-degree-of-freedom (3DOF) liner tested, both methods have a bias error less than 0.5 dB for cutback and takeoff power settings, and a much larger 3–4 dB bias for approach power setting. The standard deviation of each method varies between 1–2 dB for different conditions. The similar performance of both approaches illustrates that, in this instance, the additional complexity of the computational approach does not provide a clear improvement over the semiempirical method. Planned improvements to the numerical grid and source assumptions may result in reevaluation of this conclusion in later work.

aircraft system noise↗