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At least 937 records · Page 52

On Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for the Unit Commitment Problem

We provide a comprehensive overview of mixed-integer programming formulations for the unit commitment (UC) problem. UC formulations have been an especially active area of research over the past 12 years due to their practical importance in power grid operations, and this paper serves as a capstone for this line of work. We additionally provide publicly available reference implementations of all formulations examined. We computationally test existing and novel UC formulations on a suite of instances drawn from both academic and real-world data sources. Driven by our computational experience from this and previous work, we contribute some additional formulations for both generator production upper bounds and piecewise linear production costs. By composing new UC formulations using existing components found in the literature and new components introduced in this paper, we demonstrate that performance can be significantly improved—and in the process, we identify a new state-of-the-art UC formulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Leveraging Cell Expansion Sensing in State of Charge Estimation: Practical Considerations

Measurements such as current and terminal voltage that are typically used to determine the battery’s state of charge (SOC) are augmented with measured force associated with electrode expansion as the lithium intercalates in its structure. The combination of the sensed behavior is shown to improve SOC estimation even for the lithium ion iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry, where the voltage–SOC relation is flat (low slope) making SOC estimation using measured voltage difficult. For the LFP cells, the measured force has a non-monotonic F–SOC relationship. This presents a challenge for estimation as multiple force values can correspond to the same SOC. The traditional linear quadratic estimator can be driven to an incorrect SOC value. To address these difficulties, a novel switching estimation gain is used based on determining the operating region that corresponds to the actual SOC. Moreover, a drift in the measured force associated with a shift of the cell SOC–expansion behavior over time is addressed with a bias estimator for the force signal. The performance of Voltage-based (V) and Voltage and Force-based (V&F) SOC estimation algorithms are then compared and evaluated against a desired ±5% absolute error bound of the SOC using a dynamic stress test current protocol that tests the proposed estimation scheme across wide range of SOC and current rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Dimming the Lights: 2D Simulations of Deflagrations of Hybrid C/O/Ne White Dwarfs Using FLASH

The dimmest and most numerous outlier of the Type Ia supernova population, the Type Iax event, is increasingly being found in the results of observational campaigns. There is currently no single accepted model to describe these events. This 2D study explores the viability of modeling Type Iax events as a hybrid C/O/Ne white dwarf progenitor undergoing a deflagration using the multiphysics software FLASH. This hybrid was created using the stellar evolution code MESA, and its C-depleted core and mixed structure have demonstrated lower yields than traditional C/O progenitors in previous deflagration-to-detonation studies. To generate a sample, 30 “realizations” of this simulation were performed, the only difference being the shape of the initial match head used to start the deflagration. Consistent with earlier work, these realizations produce the familiar hot dense bound remnant surrounded by sparse ejecta. Our results indicate that the majority of the star remains unburned (∼70%) and bound (>90%). Our realizations produce total ejecta yields on the order of 10 −2 –10 −1 M ☉ , ejected 56 Ni yields on the order of 10 −4 –10 −2 M ☉ , and ejecta kinetic energies on the order of 10 48 –10 49 erg. Compared to yields inferred from recent observations of the dimmest Type Iax events—SN 2007qd, SN 2008ha, SN 2010ae, SN 2019gsc, SN 2019muj, SN 2020kyg, and SN 2021fcg—our simulation produces comparable 56 Ni yields but too-small total yields and kinetic energies. Reignition of the remnant is also seen in some realizations.

Hydrodynamical simulations↗

Dial

A key step in almost all scientific endeavors is answering the question: Given this data I already collected, what new data do I expect will yield the most useful information toward my scientific objective? The area of (sequential) experimental design has long been investigating answers to this question, but in recent years techniques from the machine learning subfield of active learning are increasingly applied. Researchers need a simple software tool for active learning applied to experimental design that can easily integrate into their existing workflows. This computer code, Dial, provides a microservice in ORNL's INTERSECT ecosystem for active learning applied to experimental design. By being part of the INTERSECT ecosystem, Dial is simple to integrate into any INTERSECT-based workflow. Dial provides multiple backend options, where a backend is an implementation of a specific active learning method. Users can select the backend that performs best for their application. Developers can also add new backends as needed. At its core, Dial receives a set of pre-existing measurements and input parameter bounds and then recommends one or more new sets of parameters to measure. Dial also includes interfaces to other microservices in the INTERSECT ecosystem so that it can be incorporated into INTERSECT campaigns. Dial provides a simple, yet powerful interface to convert automated INTERSECT workflows into autonomous workflows that adapt based on the results that are obtained. A shared microservice for active learning prevents duplicated effort by each application team implementing its own adaptive design of experiments tool.

Drane, Lance [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

Software reliability: Additional investigations into modeling with replicated experiments

The effects of programmer experience level, different program usage distributions, and programming languages are explored. All these factors affect performance, and some tentative relational hypotheses are presented. An analytic framework for replicated and non-replicated (traditional) software experiments is presented. A method of obtaining an upper bound on the error rate of the next error is proposed. The method was validated empirically by comparing forecasts with actual data. In all 14 cases the bound exceeded the observed parameter, albeit somewhat conservatively. Two other forecasting methods are proposed and compared to observed results. Although demonstrated relative to this framework that stages are neither independent nor exponentially distributed, empirical estimates show that the exponential assumption is nearly valid for all but the extreme tails of the distribution. Except for the dependence in the stage probabilities, Cox's model approximates to a degree what is being observed.

Nagel, P. M.↗

The SURE Reliability Analysis Program

The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The program is based on computational methods recently developed for the NASA Langley Research Center. These methods provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

Butler, R. W.↗

The SURE reliability analysis program

The SURE program is a new reliability tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The program is based on computational methods recently developed for the NASA Langley Research Center. These methods provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

Butler, R. W.↗

SURE reliability analysis: Program and mathematics

The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The computational methods on which the program is based provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Optimal controllers for finite wordlength implementation

When a controller is implemented in a digital computer, with A/D and D/A conversion, the numerical errors of the computation can drastically affect the performance of the control system. There exists realizations of a given controller transfer function yielding arbitrarily large effects from computational errors. Since, in general, there is no upper bound, it is important to have a systematic way of reducing these effects. Optimum controller designs are developed which take account of the digital round-off errors in the controller implementation and in the A/D and D/A converters. These results provide a natural extension to the Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) theory since they reduce to the standard LQG controller when infinite precision computation is used. But for finite precision the separation principle does not hold.

Liu, K.↗

Freezable Radiator Coupon Testing and Full Scale Radiator Design

Freezable radiators offer an attractive solution to the issue of thermal control system scalability. As thermal environments change, a freezable radiator will effectively scale the total heat rejection it is capable of as a function of the thermal environment and flow rate through the radiator. Scalable thermal control systems are a critical technology for spacecraft that will endure missions with widely varying thermal requirements. These changing requirements are a result of the space craft s surroundings and because of different thermal loads during different mission phases. However, freezing and thawing (recovering) a radiator is a process that has historically proven very difficult to predict through modeling, resulting in highly inaccurate predictions of recovery time. This paper summarizes tests on three test articles that were performed to further empirically quantify the behavior of a simple freezable radiator, and the culmination of those tests into a full scale design. Each test article explored the bounds of freezing and recovery behavior, as well as providing thermo-physical data of the working fluid, a 50-50 mixture of DowFrost HD and water. These results were then used as a tool for developing correlated thermal model in Thermal Desktop which could be used for modeling the behavior of a full scale thermal control system for a lunar mission. The final design of a thermal control system for a lunar mission is also documented in this paper.

Lillibridge, Sean T.↗

Platform for Testing Robotic Vehicles on Simulated Terrain

The variable terrain tilt platform (VTTP) is a means of providing simulated terrain for mobility testing of engineering models of the Mars Exploration Rovers. The VTTP could also be used for testing the ability of other robotic land vehicles (and small vehicles in general) to move across terrain under diverse conditions of slope and surface texture, and in the presence of obstacles of various sizes and shapes. The VTTP consists mostly of a 16-ft-(4.88-m)-square tilt table. The tilt can be adjusted to any angle between 0 (horizontal) and 25 . The test surface of the table can be left bare; can be covered with hard, high-friction material; or can be covered with sand, gravel, and/or other ground-simulating material or combination of materials to a thickness of as much as 6 in. (approx. 15 cm). Models of rocks, trenches, and other obstacles can be placed on the simulated terrain. For example, for one of the Mars- Rover tests, a high-friction mat was attached to the platform, then a 6-in.- ( 15 cm) deep layer of dry, loose beach sand was deposited on the mat. The choice of these two driving surface materials was meant to bound the range of variability of terrain that the rover was expected to encounter on the Martian surface. At each of the different angles at which tests were performed, for some of the tests, rocklike concrete obstacles ranging in height from 10 to 25 cm were placed in the path of the rover (see figure). The development of the VTTP was accompanied by development of a methodology of testing to characterize the performance and modes of failure of a vehicle under test. In addition to variations in slope, ground material, and obstacles, testing typically includes driving up-slope, down-slope, cross-slope, and at intermediate angles relative to slope. Testing includes recording of drive-motor currents, wheel speeds, articulation of suspension mechanisms, and the actual path of the vehicle over the simulated terrain. The collected data can be used to compute curves that summarize torque, speed, power-demand, and slip characteristics of wheels during the traverse.

Lindemann, Randel↗

Structural Verification of the First Orbital Wonder of the World - The Structural Testing and Analysis of the International Space Station (ISS)

The International Space Station (ISS) can be considered one of the structural engineering wonders of the world. On par with the World Trade Center, the Colossus of Rhodes, the Statue of Liberty, the Great Pyramids, the Petronas towers and the Burj Khalifa skyscraper of Dubai, the ambition and scope of the ISS structural design, verification and assembly effort is a truly global success story. With its on-orbit life projected to be from its beginning in 1998 to the year 2020 (and perhaps beyond), all of those who participated in its development can consider themselves part of an historic engineering achievement representing all of humanity. The structural design and verification of the ISS could be the subject of many scholarly papers. Several papers have been written on the structural dynamic characterization of the ISS once it was assembled on-orbit [1], but the ground-based activities required to assure structural integrity and structural life of the individual elements from delivery to orbit through assembly and planned on-orbit operations have never been totally summarized. This paper is intended to give the reader an overview of some of the key decisions made during the structural verification planning for the elements of the U.S. On-Orbit Segment (USOS) as well as to summarize the many structural tests and structural analyses that were performed on its major elements. An effort is made for this paper to be summarily comprehensive, but as with all knowledge capture efforts of this kind, there are bound to be errors of omission. Should the reader discover any of these, please feel free to contact the principal author. The ISS (Figure 1) is composed of pre-integrated truss segments and pressurized elements supplied by NASA, the Russian Federal Space Agency (RSA), the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Each of these elements was delivered to orbit by a launch vehicle and connected to one another either robotically or autonomously. The primary structure of each element was assembled and verified by teams of responsible structural engineers within and among their respective agencies and agency contractors.

Zipay, John J.↗

Integrated Flight/Structural Mode Control for Very Flexible Aircraft Using L1 Adaptive Output Feedback Controller

This paper explores application of adaptive control architecture to a light, high-aspect ratio, flexible aircraft configuration that exhibits strong rigid body/flexible mode coupling. Specifically, an L(sub 1) adaptive output feedback controller is developed for a semi-span wind tunnel model capable of motion. The wind tunnel mount allows the semi-span model to translate vertically and pitch at the wing root, resulting in better simulation of an aircraft s rigid body motion. The control objective is to design a pitch control with altitude hold while suppressing body freedom flutter. The controller is an output feedback nominal controller (LQG) augmented by an L(sub 1) adaptive loop. A modification to the L(sub 1) output feedback is proposed to make it more suitable for flexible structures. The new control law relaxes the required bounds on the unmatched uncertainty and allows dependence on the state as well as time, i.e. a more general unmatched nonlinearity. The paper presents controller development and simulated performance responses. Simulation is conducted by using full state flexible wing models derived from test data at 10 different dynamic pressure conditions. An L(sub 1) adaptive output feedback controller is designed for a single test point and is then applied to all the test cases. The simulation results show that the L(sub 1) augmented controller can stabilize and meet the performance requirements for all 10 test conditions ranging from 30 psf to 130 psf dynamic pressure.

Che, Jiaxing↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗

Hyperbolic Rendezvous at Mars: Risk Assessments and Mitigation Strategies

Given the current interest in the use of flyby trajectories for human Mars exploration, a key requirement is the capability to execute hyperbolic rendezvous. Hyperbolic rendezvous is used to transport crew from a Mars centered orbit, to a transiting Earth bound habitat that does a flyby. Representative cases are taken from future potential missions of this type, and a thorough sensitivity analysis of the hyperbolic rendezvous phase is performed. This includes early engine cutoff, missed burn times, and burn misalignment. A finite burn engine model is applied that assumes the hyperbolic rendezvous phase is done with at least two burns.

Jedrey, Ricky↗

First Order Temporal Logic Monitoring with BDDs

Runtime verification is aimed at analyzing execution traces stemming from a running program or system. The traditional purpose is to detect the lack of conformance with respect to a formal specification. Numerous efforts in the field have focused on monitoring so-called parametric specifications, where events carry data, and formulas can refer to such. Since a monitor for such specifications has to store observed data, the challenge is to have an efficient representation and manipulation of Boolean operators, quantification, and lookup of data. The fundamental problem is that the actual values of the data are not necessarily bounded or provided in advance. In this work we explore the use of Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) for representing observed data. Our experiments show a substantial improvement in performance compared to related work.

Ulus, Dogan↗

Moon to Mars (M2M): Exploration Atmosphere

As humans leave the bounds of Earth to explore the lunar surface and beyond, crew will don extravehicular activity (EVA) suits to learn more about these extraterrestrial environments, establish sustained presence, and perform needed upgrades and maintenance to their space vehicle and habitation systems. Spacefaring vehicle and habitation design will need to support these EVA excursions while ensuring crew health and safety. A crucial technological design advancement towards this goal is the use of a lower pressure exploration atmosphere (EA) that enables high efficiency EVA, rather than the sea level atmosphere of 14.7 psia, 21% oxygen (O 2 ) found on the International Space Station, Shuttle, and most other Russian and Chinese space vehicles and stations. Early space vehicles (Mercury through Apollo Programs) used a 5 psia, 100% O 2 environment, which eliminated the need for pre-EVA denitrogenation protocols, simplified the life support system to a single gas, and saved structural mass. For longer duration missions (Skylab), a diluent gas was added, changing the atmosphere to 5 psia, 70-74% O 2 to prevent atelectasis while remaining normoxic. As in-flight science became a top priority, Shuttle and ISS atmospheres were chosen to operate at sea level allowing for simpler ground-based study control conditions. Consequently this led to long pre-EVA denitrogenation protocols involving up to 4 hours of O 2 prebreathe because the EVA suit still operated at a low pressure of 4.3 psid. To increase operational efficiency, the Shuttle was retroactively certified to operate using 10.2 psia, 26.5% O 2 , reducing O 2 prebreathe time to 40-75 min. Current plans for M2M habitats on the Lunar surface require EVA, thus EA recommendation became 8 psia and 32% O 2 but was revised to 8.2 psia and 34% O 2 to decrease hypoxia exposure. Unfortunately, the benefits of EA in support of safe and efficient EVAs comes with the challenge of fire management in a higher-than-normal O 2 % environment. Although known for decades, the recommended forward work to address fire management has only recently begun. Current flammability tests include examining material propagation and ignition sources as well as fire mitigation processes to better understand these properties for proposed new EA environments. Fire safety, DCS risk, and mission design all contribute to the multifaceted parameters of EA. Thus while it is clear that EA is required to achieve the goals of future exploratory space missions, final specifications are still being evaluated for optimizing crew health and safety.

space atmosphere↗