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At least 937 records · Page 52

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

Evaluation of Distributed Power Apportioning with Net Load Management Engine in Microgrids Using Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This article presents the performance evaluation of ratio consensus-based distributed power apportioning engine along with centralized net load management (NLM) engine that ensures viable and stable operation of an islanded microgrid. Managing net load variability in a microgrid with high penetrations of uncertain renewable generation and ever-changing load demands is a crucial need in order to ensure viable and stable operation of the microgrid. Centralized “dispatch-rule”-based and/or multi-agent-based distributed control of distributed energy resources (DERs) in microgrid are well accepted for microgrid by adapting ANSI/ISA-95-based hierarchical control architecture. In the application where microgrid network has large geographical span with multiple DERs dispersed in the network, high penetration of uncertain renewable energy resources, and ever-changing load demands, a judicious selection of techniques/solutions for managing net-load resources for maintaining viability and stability is required. With this motivation, this article proposes a novel solution to mitigate the challenges by incorporating a mixed centralized NLM engine and distributed power apportioning control of DERs and loads. A power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) -based experiment is conducted with the centralized NLM engine and the distributed power apportioning engine along with two commercial inverters. The experimental results validates the efficacy of the proposed method in ensuring viability and stability of a microgrid.

hardware-in-the-loop simulation↗

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Adhesively Bonded Copper and Polyimide for Flexible Printed Circuit Boards: A Data-Driven Degradation Study Under Accelerated Aging

The long-term durability of polyimide laminated adhesive based flexible printed circuit boards (PCBs) is critical to the microelectronics industry. The interface of the adhesive layer binding the polyimide and copper layers is particularly vulnerable since decreased bonding strength can lead to deadhesion, performance loss, and premature device failure. Here, in this study, adhesive-bonded polyimide and copper samples are subjected to 1000 h of damp heat exposure (85 °C/85%RH) to evaluate the impact of moisture and copper inclusion on the adhesive bonding performance. Significant copper diffusion through the adhesive layer is observed, which, combined with moisture uptake, is found to substantially weaken interfacial adhesion in copper-containing samples, thereby reducing device lifetime. Observed surface and bulk material changes are correlated to adhesion strength using the network structural equation modeling (netSEM) approach, resulting in a robust predictive model of performance degradation based on measurable materials properties.

Chemistry↗

Network traffic control for multi-homed end-hosts via SDN

Software-defined networking (SDN) is an emerging technology of efficiently controlling and managing computer networks, such as in data centres, wide-area networks, as well as in ubiquitous communication. In this study, the authors explore the idea of embedding the SDN components, represented by SDN controller and virtual switch, in end-hosts to improve network performance. In particular, the authors consider load balancing across multiple network interfaces on end-hosts with different link capacity scenarios. The authors have explored and implemented different SDN-based load-balancing approaches based on OpenFlow software switches, and have demonstrated the feasibility and the potential of this approach. The proposed system has been evaluated with MultiPath transmission control protocol (MPTCP). Furthermore, the proposed results demonstrated the potential of applying the SDN concepts on multi-homed devices resulting in an increase in achieved throughput of 55% compared to the legacy single network approach and 10% compared to the MPTCP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗

SD-WAN Evaluation Criteria for a Defense Information Systems Network Expeditionary Customer Edge

The Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) has identified a service provision gap midway between the capacity and capability of a Defense Information Systems Network (DISN) transport Edge Points of Presence (POP) and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Enterprise Classified Travel Kit (DECTK). Some deployed force 100-user Tactical Operations Centers are in field locations far removed from the DISN transport core, in challenging environmental conditions with limitations on space, weight, power, and cooling for network equipment. As part of a multi-phase project, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will gather and analyze requirements, design, develop, prototype, and test a miniaturized and ruggedized DISN Customer Edge POP scaled to support approximately 100 users in a field Tactical Operations Center. An Expeditionary Customer Edge (ECE) will be more suitable for field deployment than a DISN transport Edge POP, using ruggedized hardware and network function virtualization (NFV) to operate in challenging field environmental conditions, plus reduce weight, power, and cooling requirements. A key enabling technology for ECE is Software Defined Wide Area Networking (SD-WAN). This document provides: • A brief overview of SD-WAN use cases and how they apply to ECE • How SD-WAN technology compares to existing networks like DISN that use Optical Transport Networking (OTN) and Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) • SD-WAN functional requirements relevant to ECE • A description of an ECE Virtual Prototype, including simulated wide area network paths and a DISN-representative implementation of MPLS, in Cisco Modeling Labs • Detailed network flow walkthroughs • Evaluation criteria based on ECE-relevant SD-WAN functional requirements Finally, an appendix provides an informal evaluation of Speedify—a commercial retail Virtual Private Network service—against the ECE SD-WAN evaluation criteria.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Undergraduate Women in STEM Internship Program

In collaboration with the Universities Research Association, Inc. (URA), establishment of the Undergraduate Women in STEM Internship pilot program assists Fermi Research Alliance, LLC (FRA) with honoring its commitment to increasing gender, racial and ethnic workforce diversity. This focused initiative is intended to invite, support and yield a qualified pipeline of alumnae underrepresented in FRA’s science and technology management and technical staff positions. Interns in this program spend 10-12 weeks at Fermilab working under the direct leadership, guidance and supervision of scientists, engineers, computing professionals, technicians and staff across all directorates performing hands-on research. In addition, the intern cohort meets with mentors and advisors to grow their professional networks, to take part in engaging and inclusive intellectual discussions, to directly benefit from workplace resources, and to participate in professional development and social engagement opportunities. The design of each research project and the supervision, mentorship and evaluation is conducted by a scientific, engineering, computing professional at Fermilab.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Timing subsystem development: Network synchronization experiments

This paper describes a program in which several experimental timing subsystem prototypes were designed, fabricated, and field tested using a small network of troposcatter and microwave digital communication links. This equipment was responsible for modem/radio interfacing, time interval measurement, clock adjustment and distribution, synchronization technique, and node to node information exchange. Presented are discussions of the design approach, measurement plan, and performance assessment methods. Recommendations are made based on the findings of the test program and an evaluation of the design of both the hardware and software elements of the timing subsystem prototypes.

Backe, K. R.↗

A computer modeling methodology and tool for assessing design concepts for the Space Station Data Management System

A computer modeling tool is being developed to assess candidate designs for the Space Station Data Management System (DMS). The DMS is to be a complex distributed computer system including the processor, storage devices, local area networks, and software that will support all processing functions onboard the Space Station. The modeling tool will allow a candidate design for the DMS, or for other subsystems that use the DMS, to be evaluated in terms of parameters. The tool and its associated modeling methodology are intended for use by DMS and subsystem designers to perform tradeoff analyses between design concepts using varied architectures and technologies.

Jones, W. R.↗

Neural Network Classifies Teleoperation Data

Prototype artificial neural network, implemented in software, identifies phases of telemanipulator tasks in real time by analyzing feedback signals from force sensors on manipulator hand. Prototype is early, subsystem-level product of continuing effort to develop automated system that assists in training and supervising human control operator: provides symbolic feedback (e.g., warnings of impending collisions or evaluations of performance) to operator in real time during successive executions of same task. Also simplifies transition between teleoperation and autonomous modes of telerobotic system.

Fiorini, Paolo↗

Predicted Performance of On-Off Systems for Precise Satellite Attitude Control

An investigation has been made of the use of on-off reaction jets for precision attitude control of a satellite. Since a symmetrical vehicle is assumed, only single-axis control needs to be considered. The responses to initial disturbances and also limit-cycle characteristics for several systems have been evaluated. Calculated results indicate that realistic values of settling time and fuel consumption for the example considered can be obtained. The performance of a given system depends on the characteristics of the error detector used. In cases where the detector output was saturated for a relatively low error input, the settling time deteriorated when a lead network was used to provide damping. This deterioration could be eliminated if a separate rate signal to produce vehicle rate limiting were available. As an alternate approach, two systems were investigated which used a timed sequence of torques and could operate with a detector output of very small linear range. Although the performance of these systems was poorer than that of the lead network system without detector saturation, the performance was better than that of the lead network system with low values of detector saturation. The effects on limit-cycle characteristics of hysteresis, lead network constants, dead zone, and thrust time delays were also investigated.

Brown, Stuart C.↗

Electrostatic Discharge Effects on Thin Film Resistors

Recently, open circuit failures of individual elements in thin film resistor networks have been attributed to electrostatic discharge (ESD) effects. This paper will discuss the investigation that came to this conclusion and subsequent experimentation intended to characterize design factors that affect the sensitivity of resistor elements to ESD. The ESD testing was performed using the standard human body model simulation. Some of the design elements to be evaluated were: trace width, trace length (and thus width to length ratio), specific resistivity of the trace (ohms per square) and resistance value. However, once the experiments were in progress, it was realized that the ESD sensitivity of most of the complex patterns under evaluation was determined by other design and process factors such as trace shape and termination pad spacing. This paper includes pictorial examples of representative ESD failure sites, and provides some options for designing thin film resistors that are ESD resistant. The risks of ESD damage are assessed and handling precautions suggested.

Sampson, Michael J.↗

Machine Learning Surrogates of a Fuel Matrix Degradation Process Model for Performance Assessment of a Nuclear Waste Repository

Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Further, using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO 3 2- , O 2 , Fe 2+ , and H 2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO 2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Variable Coding and Modulation Experiment Using NASA's Space Communication and Navigation Testbed

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Space Communication and Navigation Testbed on the International Space Station provides a unique opportunity to evaluate advanced communication techniques in an operational system. The experimental nature of the Testbed allows for rapid demonstrations while using flight hardware in a deployed system within NASA's networks. One example is variable coding and modulation, which is a method to increase data-throughput in a communication link. This paper describes recent flight testing with variable coding and modulation over S-band using a direct-to-earth link between the SCaN Testbed and the Glenn Research Center. The testing leverages the established Digital Video Broadcasting Second Generation (DVB-S2) standard to provide various modulation and coding options. The experiment was conducted in a challenging environment due to the multipath and shadowing caused by the International Space Station structure. Performance of the variable coding and modulation system is evaluated and compared to the capacity of the link, as well as standard NASA waveforms.

waveforms↗

Thermal conductivity of two-dimensional disordered fibrous materials defined by interfiber thermal contact conductance and intrinsic conductivity of fibers

A general framework for the theoretical analysis and numerical calculations of the effective thermal conductivity of two-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic disordered fibrous materials is developed in this work based on the model of random contacts between soft-core spherocylinders. The analysis accounts for the interfiber contact conductance and intrinsic conductivity of fibers and is performed in a wide space of governing parameters that includes the fiber aspect ratio, Biot number calculated for a single thermal contact between fibers, and material density ranging from values corresponding to the percolation threshold up to those characteristic of dense fiber networks. For dense networks, exact theoretical equations for the thermal conductivity of materials composed of spherocylinders with an arbitrary aspect ratio and Biot number are derived. The effect of the intrinsic conductivity of fibers on the thermal transport in fibrous materials is found to depend on the density of contacts and can be significant in sufficiently dense fiber networks even if the Biot number for a single thermal contact is small. Semiempirical corrections to the theoretical equations are derived for small and moderate fiber densities. The power law exponent describing the approximate dependence of the conductivity on the density parameter is found to vary from values close to 1 up to values exceeding 2 when evaluated within different finite ranges of the density parameter. This finding explains the variability of scaling laws for thermal conductivity of fibrous materials suggested in the literature based on numerical simulations performed in different regions of the space of material parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗