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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Lattice Litany for Transition Metal Oxides

In this tribute to K Alex Müeller, I describe how his early insights have influenced future decades of research on perovskite ferroelectrics and more broadly transition metal oxides (TMOs) and related quantum materials. I use his influence on my own research journey to discuss impacts in three areas: structural phase transitions, precursor structure, and quantum paraelectricity. I emphasize materials functionality in ground, metastable, and excited states arising from competitions among lattice, charge, and spin degrees of freedom, which results in highly tunable landscapes and complex networks of multiscale configurations controlling macroscopic functions. I discuss competitions between short- and long-range forces as particularly important in TMOs (and related materials classes) because of their localized and directional metal orbitals and the polarizable oxygen ions. I emphasize crucial consequences of elasticity and metal–oxygen charge transfer

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Distribution System Research Roadmap; Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

The scope of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) office covers a number of distributed energy resource (DER) technologies, including distributed photovoltaics, smart buildings, wind, water, behind-the-meter-storage, and electric vehicles. The impact of these technologies on the distribution system is often assessed with an individual technology focus. Similarly, different technology offices often leverage different sets of tools, leading to analyses that are not comparable. EERE sought the ability to assess the impact of integrating multiple DER technologies, and to comprehensively address DER integration challenges across the portfolio of EERE technologies. This project built on existing work understanding technical challenges, mapped out the key research questions, assessed relevant capabilities across the national laboratory network, identified key gaps, and produced a research roadmap to inform EERE investment decisions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Simulation Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Stochastic Occupant Behaviors on Demand Flexibility in Typical Commercial Buildings

As one of the primary users of the electric grid, buildings and building equipment, including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, can be leveraged to provide the flexible demand needed to balance the grid. Typical strategies to achieve demand flexibility are to reduce electricity use during peak or critical periods by shutting down equipment or relaxing system setpoints, which will inevitably impact the occupants’ comfort. When occupants feel uncomfortable, they may take actions to regain their comfort, and some of those actions (such as turning on a personal fan) may have a negative impact on meeting the demand response goal. Therefore, it is important to incorporate occupant behaviors into the assessment ofthe building demand flexibility potential. In this study, a simulation framework that includes simulation of zone thermal loads, an HVAC system, and occupant behaviors, was developed to investigate the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility. A case study was conducted using a small office model from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Prototype Building Models to simulate the building envelope and zone loads. An agent-based occupant thermal behavior model was adapted to forecast occupants’ thermal comfort and their resulting thermal behaviors. An artificial neural network (ANN) based airflow model trained from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the zone was adopted to better predict the ambient environment of each occupant. An air-source heat pump simulation model that was calibrated from a real two-stage air-source heat pump system was used as the HVAC system. A typical load shedding event during peak hours was studied. Repeated simulations were conducted to capture the stochastic effects of occupant behaviors. The interplay between the demand flexibility, occupant comfort and behavior were analyzed by evaluating key performance indicators, including the energy use, occupant discomfort duration, and occupant behavior duration during the peak period. The results suggest that this framework can be used to analyze typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms ofdemand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

Chen, Zhelun↗

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Dimensionality-Dependent Electronic Properties of the Highly Conducting n-Type Polymer, Poly(benzodifurandione)

Poly(benzodifurandione) (n-PBDF) has garnered significant interest as it displays the highest reported n-type electrical conductivity among π-conjugated polymers. Earlier theoretical studies of n-PBDF could not rationalize this high conductivity. Here, we explore the geometric and electronic properties of two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) n-PBDF networks using first-principles calculations and tight-binding models. In 2D networks, a metallic electronic configuration occurs when considering a coplanar geometry with BDF moieties bounded to protons on the same side; however, backbone torsions disrupt the metallic behavior. In contrast, all 3D architectures consistently lead to a metallic nature, which is not impacted by variations in proton positions and stacking patterns. Tight-binding models allowed us to evaluate the respective strengths of intra- and interchain electronic couplings in n-PBDF. Altogether, our investigations provide a comprehensive picture into the electronic properties of n-PBDF and shed light on how they are affected by system dimensionality, proton positions, and stacking patterns.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multiple social platforms reveal actionable signals for software vulnerability awareness: A study of GitHub, Twitter and Reddit

Software vulnerabilities are flaws in computer systems that leave users open to attack. In many cases, these vulnerabilities go unnoticed and remain unresolved in codebases. Thus, awareness of software vulnerabilities among the public is crucial to ensure effective cybersecurity practices, the development of high quality software, and ultimately national security. This awareness can be better understood by studying the spread and evolution of software vulnerability discussions in online communities. This work is the first to evaluate and contrast how discussions about software vulnerabilities spread on three social platforms -- Twitter, GitHub, and Reddit. To lay the groundwork, we showcase a novel fundamental framework for measuring information spread that identifies the spread mechanisms and observables across platforms, the units of information, and the groups of measurements that can be applied to focus on a specific phenomena e.g., information cascades. We then analyze and contrast social network topologies for three example social networks and measure the scale and speed of the spread of discussion of specific vulnerabilities to understand how far and how widely they spread, how many users participate in discussions, and the duration of their spread. To demonstrate the awareness of more impactful software vulnerabilities, a subset of our analysis focuses on vulnerabilities targeted during recent major cyber attacks as well as vulnerabilities exploited by advanced persistent threat groups. We discover that usually, vulnerability discussions start on GitHub, before occurring on Twitter and Reddit. While studying how some user-level and content-level characteristics influence vulnerability spread, we observe that Twitter discussions started by users predicted to be humans have larger size, breadth, depth, adoption rate, lifetime, and structural virality compared to those started by users predicted to be bots. On Reddit, we contrast the differences in thread structure that originate from posts with positive, negative and neutral polarity. We find that posts that are positive have larger, deeper and wider discussions compared to negative and neutral posts. We anticipate the results of our analysis to not only increase the understanding of software vulnerability awareness but also inform models for simulating information spread across multiple social environments online.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model Exploration of an Information-Based Healthcare Intervention Using Parallelization and Active Learning

This paper describes the application of a large-scale active learning method to characterize the parameter space of a computational agent-based model developed to investigate the impact of CommunityRx, a clinical information-based health intervention that provides patients with personalized information about local community resources to meet basic and self-care needs. Additionally, the diffusion of information about community resources and their use is modeled via networked interactions and their subsequent effect on agents' use of community resources across an urban population. A random forest model is iteratively fitted to model evaluations to characterize the model parameter space with respect to observed empirical data. We demonstrate the feasibility of using high-performance computing and active learning model exploration techniques to characterize large parameter spaces; by partitioning the parameter space into potentially viable and non-viable regions, we rule out regions of space where simulation output is implausible to observed empirical data. We argue that such methods are necessary to enable model exploration in complex computational models that incorporate increasingly available micro-level behavior data. We provide public access to the model and high-performance computing experimentation code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transient Coupled Chemical-Thermal-Fluid Field Simulation for Sealed Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Canister

As the first step toward developing three-dimensional (3D) multi-physics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for unsealed and vented canister storage system, a 3D CFD model coupled with bulk gas radiolysis reactions was developed first for sealed DOE standard canisters filled with inert gas and trace amount of air and water. The workflow for constructing canister-scale 3D CFD models and coupling with gas phase radiolysis reactions were established, which can be readily extended to unsealed, vented canister storage system. This interim milestone report documents the theory of the model, workflow to establish radiolysis reaction network, and initial simulations of the evolutions of thermal fields and hydrogen gas concentrations within sealed DOE standard canisters over long period of time. In addition, a mesh refinement test was done to show that increasing the models mesh refinement had negligible impact upon the temperature profiles.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Predicting Nugget Size of Resistance Spot Welds Using Infrared Thermal Videos With Image Segmentation and Convolutional Neural Network

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is a widely adopted joining technique in automotive industry. Recent advancement in sensing technology makes it possible to collect thermal videos of the weld nugget during RSW using an infrared (IR) camera. The effective and timely analysis of such thermal videos has the potential of enabling in situ nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld nugget by predicting nugget thickness and diameter. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated to be effective in analyzing imaging data in many applications. However, the thermal videos in RSW present unique data-level challenges that compromise the effectiveness of most pre-trained DL models. We propose a novel image segmentation method for handling the RSW thermal videos to improve the prediction performance of DL models in RSW. The proposed method transforms raw thermal videos into spatial-temporal instances in four steps: video-wise normalization, removal of uninformative images, watershed segmentation, and spatial-temporal instance construction. The extracted spatial-temporal instances serve as the input data for training a DL-based NDE model. The proposed method is able to extract high-quality data with spatial-temporal correlations in the thermal videos, while being robust to the impact of unknown surface emissivity. Overall, our case studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better prediction of nugget thickness and diameter than predicting without the transformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A density-functional theory study of the Al/AlOx/Al tunnel junction

The aluminum oxide tunnel junction is a key component of the majority of superconducting quantum devices. For high-quality, reproducible, and scalably manufacturable qubits, the ability to fabricate Josephson junctions (JJs) with a targeted critical current and high uniformity is essential. In this study, we use first-principles modeling to assess fundamental aspects of the atomic structure of both amorphous and crystalline aluminum oxide tunnel junctions and relate the structure to predicted performance metrics. We use modified ab initio molecular dynamics to develop realistic models of the tunnel junction, from which interface roughness and local thickness fluctuations are analyzed in an unbiased manner by training a neural network to identify the boundary between metal and oxide. We show that the effective thickness of the insulating part of the junction can be different from the apparent physical thickness. We calculate the rate of Cooper pair tunneling for the atomically resolved electrostatic potential using direct numerical solution in 3D, which shows a channeling effect that impacts the junction critical current. The predicted critical current is a useful JJ design parameter that can be accessed from the ab initio calculations without fitting parameters. To assess the limits of uniformity and fabrication choices (e.g., oxidation vs epitaxy), we compare the amorphous junctions to crystalline models, which show order of magnitude more efficient tunneling compared to the amorphous case, underlining the connection between atomistic structure and Cooper pair tunneling efficiency. Further, this work provides a foundation for ab initio materials design and evaluation to help accelerate future development of improved tunnel junctions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Autonomous scanning probe microscopy investigations over WS2 and Au{111}

Abstract Individual atomic defects in 2D materials impact their macroscopic functionality. Correlating the interplay is challenging, however, intelligent hyperspectral scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS) mapping provides a feasible solution to this technically difficult and time consuming problem. Here, dense spectroscopic volume is collected autonomously via Gaussian process regression, where convolutional neural networks are used in tandem for spectral identification. Acquired data enable defect segmentation, and a workflow is provided for machine-driven decision making during experimentation with capability for user customization. We provide a means towards autonomous experimentation for the benefit of both enhanced reproducibility and user-accessibility. Hyperspectral investigations on WS 2 sulfur vacancy sites are explored, which is combined with local density of states confirmation on the Au{111} herringbone reconstruction. Chalcogen vacancies, pristine WS 2 , Au face-centered cubic, and Au hexagonal close-packed regions are examined and detected by machine learning methods to demonstrate the potential of artificial intelligence for hyperspectral STS mapping.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Study of wrap mode impact on Pseudomonas aeruginosa motion in the chemotactic field of fungi

An agent-based discrete computational model biologically calibrated to Pseudomonas aeruginosa migration is used to explore the impacts of bacterial reversals and wrap mode on the efficiency of motion in different environments, both with and without chemotaxis. It is first shown that wrap mode increases the exploration of continuous multimodal chemotactic profiles such as those produced by biologically relevant fungal networks. For cells undergoing a run-reverse pattern, it is shown that the bacteria are likely to remain at the first local chemoattractant maximal production site on a hypha they find. However, with wrap mode, the bacteria can more easily escape these local sites to further explore their neighboring environment along the fungi, suggesting that wrap mode may be beneficial for migration along the fungi in liquid. In a different set of simulations of bacterial motion close to an isolated chemotactic source, wrap mode is shown to increase the ability of a bacterium to reorient toward the source while reducing the overall motion required for similar chemotactic efficiency as a run-reverse strategy, suggesting a potential metabolic benefit. In contrast, model simulations show that wrap mode can increase the rate of dispersal of P. aeruginosa in a nonchemotactic environment.

Hansen, Austin [University of California, Riversid↗

Prokaryotic responses to a warm temperature anomaly in northeast subarctic Pacific waters

Recent studies on marine heat waves describe water temperature anomalies causing changes in food web structure, bloom dynamics, biodiversity loss, and increased plant and animal mortality. However, little information is available on how water temperature anomalies impact prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) inhabiting ocean waters. This is a nontrivial omission given their integral roles in driving major biogeochemical fluxes that influence ocean productivity and the climate system. Here we present a time-resolved study on the impact of a large-scale warm water surface anomaly in the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean, colloquially known as the Blob, on prokaryotic community compositions. Multivariate statistical analyses identified significant depth- and season-dependent trends that were accentuated during the Blob. Moreover, network and indicator analyses identified shifts in specific prokaryotic assemblages from typically particle-associated before the Blob to taxa considered free-living and chemoautotrophic during the Blob, with potential implications for primary production and organic carbon conversion and export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A limit on the total lepton number in the Universe from BBN and the CMB

At temperatures below the QCD phase transition, any substantial lepton number in the Universe can only be present within the neutrino sector. In this work, we systematically explore the impact of a non-vanishing lepton number on Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) and the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Relying on our recently developed framework based on momentum averaged quantum kinetic equations for the neutrino density matrix, we solve the full BBN reaction network to obtain the abundances of primordial elements. We find that the maximal primordial total lepton number L allowed by BBN and the CMB is -0.12 (-0.10) ≤ L ≤ 0.13 (0.12) for NH (IH), while specific flavor directions can be even more constrained. This bound is complementary to the limits obtained from avoiding baryon overproduction through sphaleron processes at the electroweak phase transition since, although numerically weaker, it applies at lower temperatures and is obtained completely independently. We publicly release the C++ code COFLASY-C on GitHub (https://github.com/mariofnavarro/COFLASY/tree/COFLASY-C) which solves for the evolution of the neutrino quantum kinetic equations numerically.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Secondary Crash Identification using Crowdsourced Waze User Reports

Secondary crashes are crashes that occur as a result of the nonrecurrent congestion originating from primary crashes, and always have a greater impact on safety and traffic than a single crash. A better understanding of secondary crashes would benefit traffic incident management, and this requires accurate identification of secondary crashes. This study explores using crowdsourced Waze user reports to identify secondary crashes. Here, a network-based clustering algorithm is proposed to extract the primary crash cluster, including all user reports originating from the primary crash, and any crash that occurred within the cluster would be a secondary crash. This method works as a filter to select accurate primary–secondary relationships, thus precisely identifying secondary crashes. A case study is performed with crashes occurring from June to December 2019 on a 30-mi stretch of I-40 in Knoxville, TN. A static threshold method (crash duration and 10 mi) was used to preselect the potential primary–secondary crash pairs, and 75 out of 708 crashes were identified as potential secondary crashes. Based on the preselected primary–secondary crash pairs, 17 secondary crashes were obtained with the proposed method and the results were compared with one of the commonly used methods, the speed contour plot method. Though the proposed method captured fewer secondary crashes, it did identify several secondary crashes that could not be observed with the speed contour plot method. The results showed the applicability of the method and the potential of crowdsourced Waze user reports in secondary crash identification.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Non-Rare Earth Magnesium Bumper Beams

Magna will team with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE™) of rectangular and multi-zoned extrusion profiles using non-RE Mg. It is envisioned that the ShAPE™ process, developed during this project for non-circular profiles, will serve as the foundation for fabrication of full-scale bumper beams of the future where near net-shapes are extruded directly from castings in a single step, without the need for costly rare earth additives. In this project, the ShAPE™ process will be developed for a rectangular profile measuring 1” x 2” with a 0.06” wall thickness. Successful extrusion of rectangular cross sections is a critical step along the path toward profiles with multiple zones. With the process established for a rectangular profile, the project will then make advancements toward multi-zoned cross sections. A magnesium alloy bumper beam offers a 35% weight savings compared to aluminum alloys and 60% compared to high strength steels. The bumper beam was chosen as the first component to target because the geometry can have a fairly simple 0.6-0.12 inch wall/web thickness, generally compatible with PNNL’s knowledge base and equipment capability surrounding ShAPE™. The bumper component offers commercial value by providing mass reduction in the front of the vehicle along with ride and handling benefit. PNNL has demonstrated the ability to ShAPE™ process non-RE Mg tubing with high strength, ductility and energy absorption. It has been shown that ShAPE™ extruded ZK60 and Mg2Si tubing with 0.30 inch diameter and 0.03 inch wall thickness have similar energy absorption to AA6061-T6. This is due to significant grain refinement, breakdown and dispersion of second phases, and the ability to eliminate anisotropy in compressive/tensile strength by aligning texture 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Scalability of the ShAPE™ process has been demonstrated in ZK60 by fabricating 2.0 inch diameter tubing with 0.06 and 0.12 inch wall thicknesses having concentricity as tight as 1.3%. These tubes exhibit an ultimate tensile strength of 260-300 MPa and room temperature ductility of >20% parallel, perpendicular and 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Aluminum bumpers represent approximately 54% of the NA light vehicle market. If the research effort is successful, providing a 30% mass reduction at equal cost relative to aluminum bumpers, it is anticipated that 25% market penetration would be realized over the next 5 year and 50% market share by 2030. 100% of the aluminum automotive bumpers are sourced from the tier network, providing resourcing opportunity based on equal performance, reduced mass and cost equivalent lower than aluminum bumpers. Due to the relatively low vehicle content, magnesium components are currently shredded and 100% recycled with aluminum content in the US, presenting a positive life cycle impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗