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DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

AGFormer: Adaptive Spatiotemporal graph informed transformer for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for effective water resource management, yet most machine learning models focus on single-reservoir prediction and overlook spatial dependencies among hydrologically connected reservoirs. Here, we propose AGFormer (Adaptive Graph-Informed Transformer), an end-to-end framework that integrates adaptive graph learning with temporal sequence modeling for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting. A shared encoder and graph attention mechanism generate reservoir-specific embeddings, which are then processed by the Transformer-based encoder–decoder for multi-step inflow forecasting. We also introduce a pretraining paradigm to learn robust temporal embeddings from misaligned historical records. Evaluated on 30 reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin, AGFormer achieves superior seven-day-ahead forecasts, with NSE > 0.75 for 20 reservoirs—outperforming Encoder–Decoder LSTM, GCN+LSTM, and Transformer baselines. Adaptive graph learning captures dynamic inter-reservoir dependencies, and feature attribution aligns with snowmelt-driven hydrology. Incorporating forecasted meteorological inputs further enhances accuracy, demonstrating AGFormer’s potential to support reservoir management under dynamic hydrological conditions.

Adaptive graph learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using AI for Wave-front Estimation with the Rubin Observatory Active Optics System

Abstract The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will, over a period of 10 yr, repeatedly survey the southern sky. To ensure that images generated by Rubin meet the quality requirements for precision science, the observatory will use an active-optics system (AOS) to correct for alignment and mirror surface perturbations introduced by gravity and temperature gradients in the optical system. To accomplish this, Rubin will use out-of-focus images from sensors located at the edge of the focal plane to learn and correct for perturbations to the wave front. We have designed and integrated a deep-learning (DL) model for wave-front estimation into the AOS pipeline. In this paper, we compare the performance of this DL approach to Rubin’s baseline algorithm when applied to images from two different simulations of the Rubin optical system. We show the DL approach is faster and more accurate, achieving the atmospheric error floor both for high-quality images and low-quality images with heavy blending and vignetting. Compared to the baseline algorithm, the DL model is 40× faster, the median error 2× better under ideal conditions, 5× better in the presence of vignetting by the Rubin camera, and 14× better in the presence of blending in crowded fields. In addition, the DL model surpasses the required optical quality in simulations of the AOS closed loop. This system promises to increase the survey area useful for precision science by up to 8%. We discuss how this system might be deployed when commissioning and operating Rubin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Boundary-Aware Adversarial Learning Domain Adaption and Active Learning for Cross-Sensor Building Extraction

The use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for building extraction from remote sensing images has been widely studied and many public datasets have been made available for accelerating development of these CNN models. Yet adapting pretrained models at scale in real-world scenarios remains a challenging task. The main barrier is that certain new labels are still needed to compensate for domain shifting between the labeled data and new images that potentially cover new geographic locations or that are from a different sensor. In this article, we propose to add informatively labeled samples from a new image pool under the paradigm of active learning. To select the most useful samples based on model uncertainty, we first tackle the problem of uncalibrated uncertainty estimation due to distribution shifting by adapting feature extractors with boundary-based adversarial learning. Calibrated uncertainty is used as the query criterion in the active learning process, where the most uncertain samples are selected for annotation and included for model retraining. The proposed workflow was tested with three data pairs in which each workflow represents a scenario often encountered in real-world applications, including adapting pretrained models to new images collected with different sensors or to new geographic areas where appearances and types of buildings are very different. Compared to several baselines, including random sampling, temperature scaling (a well-known uncertainty calibration technique), different query strategies, and active domain adaptation methods, the proposed workflow shows that strategically querying a smaller set of samples for labeling achieves comparable or better building extraction performance. The proposed method reduces the number of labeled samples required to achieve sufficient model accuracy, thus significantly reducing hundreds of person-hours for labeled data creation. In addition, we include a few considerations when deploying this workflow in a GPU cluster that can be easily adapted to achieve operational building extraction model retraining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Inter-Comparison of Two Independent Site Test Interferometers Located in Goldstone, California: Initial Study Results

Site Test Interferometers (STIs) have been deployed at two different locations at the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) tracking complex in Goldstone, California. An STI measures the difference in path length between a geostationary satellite and two antennas on the Earth, producing a measure of atmospheric phase fluctuations over spatial distances comparable to those between elements of possible microwave phased arrays. The purposes of the Goldstone STIs are to assess the suitability of Goldstone as an array site and to statistically characterize atmospheric induced delay fluctuations for application to future array scenarios.The two STI's are separated by 13 km across the Goldstone complex. Each instrument is composed of two small-diameter antennas and associated electronics separated by approx. 200 meters in a principally east-west configuration. The antennas continuously observe signals emitted by geo-stationary satellites and produce data that contain information on the phase difference between signals received by both antennas. The fluctuation in delay (or path length difference) statistics derived from these data sets can be used to infer power loss for particular array configurations.We report on a comparison of the root mean square (RMS) phase delay statistics estimated over 10-minute intervals between the two Goldstone STIs. We have achieved good statistical agreement between the data acquired from the two STIs, given that each instrument is observing different satellites, at different frequencies, over different baseline lengths, with very different implementations, and are located 13 km apart in widely separated terrain at different geodetic altitudes.

propagation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ibis Networks/WattIQ (IN2 Final Report)

Ibis Networks is a full-stack cleantech company that provides plug-level energy monitoring and control to solve energy and asset management problems for the enterprise. During DATES – DATES, an NREL research team worked with the Ibis team to validate their product, the InteliSocket. The Ibis InteliSocket is a pass-through plug-load energy monitor and controller that is designed to reduce energy wasted by common 120 V plug-in devices in commercial office buildings, such as computer peripherals, conference room AV equipment, and break-room appliances. The system can shut off supply power to these end uses via remote control, manual switches, pre-set schedules, or automated control algorithms. The scope of this IN2 project was the development and refinement of “smart” learning behavior algorithms (LBAs), which could help installation processes and dramatically expand the sockets’ capabilities and energy-saving potential by suggesting suitable control schedules that are based on monitored use patterns. While Ibis has the analytical and software expertise for algorithm development, the lack of test data, both in a controlled laboratory setting and in real-life deployment scenarios, represented a key barrier toward commercialization of the product. Assistance through the IN2 program provided an opportunity to conduct the needed “trial and error” algorithm development. The project included baseline field-data collection, laboratory testing, and field validation components, all of which were conducted at the NREL campus between April 2017 and July 2019.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2013

Improved Spacecraft Tracking and Navigation Using a Portable Radio Science Receiver

The Portable Radio Science Receiver (PRSR) is a suitcase-sized open-loop digital receiver designed to be small and easy to transport so that it can be deployed quickly and easily anywhere in the world. The PRSR digitizes, downconverts, and filters using custom hardware, firmware, and software. Up to 16 channels can be independently configured and recorded with a total data rate of up to 256 Mbps. The design and implementation of the system's hardware, firmware, and software is described. To minimize costs and time to deployment, our design leveraged elements of the hardware, firmware, and software designs from the existing full-sized operational (non-portable) Radio Science Receivers (RSR) and Wideband VLBI Science Receivers (WVSR), which have successfully supported flagship NASA deep space missions at all Deep Space Network (DSN) sites. We discuss a demonstration of the PRSR using VLBI, with one part per billion angular resolution: 1 nano-radian / 200 ?as synthesized beam. This is the highest resolution astronomical instrument ever operated solely from the Southern Hemisphere. Preliminary results from two sites are presented, including the European Space Agency (ESA) sites at Cebreros, Spain and Malargue, Argentina. Malargue's South American location is of special interest because it greatly improves the geometric coverage for spacecraft navigation in the Southern Hemisphere and will for the first time provide coverage to the 1/4 of the range of declination that has been excluded from reference frame work at Ka-band.

Delta Differential One-Way (DOR)↗

NASA NTRS2006

Sensor to User - NASA/EOS Data for Coastal Zone Management Applications Developed from Integrated Analyses: Verification, Validation and Benchmark Report

The NASA Applied Sciences Program seeks to transfer NASA data, models, and knowledge into the hands of end-users by forming links with partner agencies and associated decision support tools (DSTs). Through the NASA REASoN (Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network) Cooperative Agreement, the Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRLSSC) is developing new products through the integration of data from NASA Earth-Sun System assets with coastal ocean forecast models and other available data to enhance coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. The recipient federal agency for this research effort is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The contents of this report detail the effort to further the goals of the NASA Applied Sciences Program by demonstrating the use of NASA satellite products combined with data-assimilating ocean models to provide near real-time information to maritime users and coastal managers of the Gulf of Mexico. This effort provides new and improved capabilities for monitoring, assessing, and predicting the coastal environment. Coastal managers can exploit these capabilities through enhanced DSTs at federal, state and local agencies. The project addresses three major issues facing coastal managers: 1) Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs); 2) hypoxia; and 3) freshwater fluxes to the coastal ocean. A suite of ocean products capable of describing Ocean Weather is assembled on a daily basis as the foundation for this semi-operational multiyear effort. This continuous realtime capability brings decision makers a new ability to monitor both normal and anomalous coastal ocean conditions with a steady flow of satellite and ocean model conditions. Furthermore, as the baseline data sets are used more extensively and the customer list increased, customer feedback is obtained and additional customized products are developed and provided to decision makers. Continual customer feedback and response with new improved products are required between the researcher and customer. This document details the methods by which these coastal ocean products are produced including the data flow, distribution, and verification. Product applications and the degree to which these products are used successfully within NOAA and coordinated with the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources (MDMR) is benchmarked.

Hall, Callie↗

NASA NTRS2021

Tracking Smoke from a Prescribed Fire and its Impacts on Local Air Quality using Temporally Resolved GOES-16 ABI Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) was used to track a smoke plume from a prescribed fire in northeastern Virginia on 8 March 2020. Weather and atmospheric conditions created a favorable environment to transport the plume through the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metro areas in the afternoon and concentrate smoke near the surface, degrading air quality for several hours. ABI AOD with 5-min temporal resolution and 2-km spatial resolution definitively identified the timing and geographic extent of the plume during daylight hours. Comparison to AERONET AOD indicates that ABI AOD captured the relative change in AOD due to passage of the smoke, with a mean absolute error of 0.047. Ground-based measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) confirm deteriorations in air quality coincident with the progression of the smoke. Ceilometer aerosol backscatter profiles verify plume transport timing and indicate that smoke aerosols were well mixed in a shallow boundary layer. This event illustrates the advantages of using multiple datasets to analyze the impacts of aerosols on ambient air quality. Given the quickly evolving nature of the event over several hours, ABI AOD provided information for the public and decision-makers that was not available from any other source, including polar-orbiting satellite sensors. This study suggests that PM2.5 concentrations estimated from ABI AOD can be used to fill in the gaps in nationwide regulatory PM2.5 monitor networks and may be a valuable addition to EPA’s PM2.5 NowCast of current air quality conditions.

satellite observations↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Celestial Reference Frame at X/Ka-band (8.4/32 GHz)

A celestial reference frame at X/Ka-band (8.4/32 GHz) has been constructed using fifty-one 24-hour sessions with the Deep Space Network. We report on observations which have detected 436 sources covering the full 24 hours of right ascension and declinations down to -45 deg. Comparison of this X/Ka-band frame to the S/X-band (2.3/8.4 GHz) ICRF2 shows wRMS agreement of 200 micro-arcsec in a cos delta and 290 micro-arcsec in delta. There is evidence for zonal errors at the 100 micro-arcsec level. Known errors include limited SNR, lack of phase calibration, troposphere mismodelling, and limited southern geometry. The motivations for extending the ICRF to frequencies above 8 GHz are to access more compact source morphology for improved frame stability, to provide calibrators for phase referencing, and to support spacecraft navigation at Ka-band.

reference systems catalog↗

NASA NTRS2016

Experimenting Galileo on Board the International Space Station

The SCaN Testbed is an advanced integrated communications system and laboratory facility installed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2012. The testbed incorporates a set of new generation of Software Defined Radio (SDR) technologies intended to allow researchers to develop, test, and demonstrate new communications, networking, and navigation capabilities in the actual environment of space. Qascom, in cooperation with ESA and NASA, is designing a Software Defined Radio GalileoGPS Receiver capable to provide accurate positioning and timing to be installed on the ISS SCaN Testbed. The GalileoGPS waveform will be operated in the JPL SDR that is constituted by several hardware components that can be used for experimentations in L-Band and S-Band. The JPL SDR includes an L-Band Dorne Margolin antenna mounted onto a choke ring. The antenna is connected to a radio front end capable to provide one bit samples for the three GNSS frequencies (L1, L2 and L5) at 38 MHz, exploiting the subharmonic sampling. The baseband processing is then performed by an ATMEL AT697 processor (100 MIPS) and two Virtex 2 FPGAs. The JPL SDR supports the STRS (Space Telecommunications Radio System) that provides common waveform software interfaces, methods of instantiation, operation, and testing among different compliant hardware and software products. The standard foresees the development of applications that are modular, portable, reconfigurable, and reusable. The developed waveform uses the STRS infrastructure-provided application program interfaces (APIs) and services to load, verify, execute, change parameters, terminate, or unload an application. The project is divided in three main phases. 1)Design and Development of the GalileoGPS waveform for the SCaN Testbed starting from Qascom existing GNSS SDR receiver. The baseline design is limited to the implementation of the single frequency Galileo and GPS L1E1 receiver even if as part of the activity it will be to assess the feasibility of a dual frequency implementation (L1E1+L5E5a) in the same SDR platform.2)Qualification and test the GalileoGPS waveform using ground systems available at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Experimenters can have access to two SCaN Testbed ground based systems for development and verification: the Experimenter Development System (EDS) that is intended to provide initial opportunity for software testing and basic functional validation and the Ground Integration Unit (GIU) that is a high fidelity version of the SCaN Testbed flight system and is therefore used for more controlled final development testing and verification testing.3)Perform in-orbit validation and experimentation: The experimentation phase will consists on the collection of raw measurements (pseudorange, Carrier phase, CN0) in space, assessment on the quality of the measurements and the receiver performances in terms of signal acquisition, tracking, etc. Finally computation of positioning in space (Position, Velocity and time) and assessment of its performance.(Complete abstract in attached document).

GPS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Experimenting Galileo on Board the International Space Station

Galileo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single-shot femtosecond laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy in low-density gases

Single-shot fs laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has been used to interrogate low-density gases of H 2 ⁠, CH 4 ⁠, CO 2 ⁠, and H 2 O ranging from 0.5 × 10 15 to 9.1 × 10 15 cm −3 (15–275 mTorr). Strong spectral signatures were observed above the noise baseline for each test gas at all densities considered. Unique molecular signatures were observed for both CH 4 and CO 2 along with atomic features for each gas. The LIBS intensity response with respect to density was determined for each species using Voigt lineshape fitting or numerical integration. Finally, the collection and analysis of LIBS spectra of composite mixtures of CH 4 –CO 2 and CH 4 –H 2 demonstrates that the extraction of individual densities from gas mixtures is feasible at low densities.

Artificial neural networks↗

NASA NTRS2021

Wilson Corners SWMU 001 2019-2020 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2019 and 2020 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code. The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. Sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology investigations in October 2020 and April 2021. The activities presented in this report include three field events: (1) December 2019 -groundwater gauging of 38 monitoring wells and sampling of 36 monitoring wells; (2) May 2020 - groundwater sampling of 7 monitoring wells; and (3) December 2020 - groundwater gauging of 49 monitoring wells and sampling of 43 monitoring wells. During the December 2019 and May 2020 events, monitoring wells were sampled using passive diffusion bags and were analyzed for a “full list” of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including Freon 113. During the December 2020 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a “select list” of VOCs, including Freon 113. The following conclusions can be made based on the 2019 and 2020 LTM results: •In December 2019 and December 2020, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west with the individual zones only varying by occasional northerly and southerly components. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site. •The GCTL plume continues to extend both horizontally and vertically beyond our current monitoring well network. •The vertical extent of VOCs was historically generally delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells WILC-MW0078 and WILC-MW0130 that were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 LTM indicate that groundwater VOC concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. •Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2019 and 2020 LTM events. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed during this reporting period, including recent DPT groundwater sampling conducted for the implementation of an air sparge system, the following recommendations are provided: •Install 10 new monitoring wells, which will be sampled along with 49 existing monitoring wells, to assist with delineation of the low concentration plume. The wells are listed inTable 4-1, and the proposed locations are presented on Figures4 -1 through 4-5. (Figures 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, and 4-5 also show updated plumes and proposed performance monitoring well locations. This information will be discussed and presented under a separate cover.) •Modify the annual LTM sampling plan as presented inTable 4-1. •Sampling for future events at the site will be conducted using low flow pumping methods. The next annual LTM sampling event is currently planned for December 2021. Please note the 10 new monitoring wells will not be installed before this event but will be installed as part of the upcoming IM construction and will be sampled during baseline sampling, along with the 49 existing monitoring wells. Following this sampling event, it is recommended that the Annual LTM be combined with the performance monitoring under the IM implementation, and LTM be temporarily discontinued. Objectives of the 2021 LTM are to: (i) evaluate groundwater gradient and flow direction by collecting depth to water measurements from LTM wells; (ii) continue monitoring the peripheral VOC trends in the northern, southern, and western portions of the site by monitoring existing wells and installing and monitoring new wells as recommended; and (iii) monitor select internal plume wells.

Jennifer Lynn Joyal↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging the Gap Between LLMs and LNS with Dynamic Data Format and Architecture Codesign

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in the past few years. However, their training and inference demand exceptional computational and memory resources. Quantization has been shown as an effective approach to mitigate the cost, with the mainstream data types reduced from FP32 to FP16/BF16 and recently FP8 in the latest NVIDIA H100 GPUs. With increasingly aggressive quantization, however, the conventional floating-point formats suffer from limited precision in representing numbers around zero. Recently, NVIDIA demonstrated the potential of using a Logarithmic Number System (LNS) for the next generation of tensor cores. While LNS mitigates the hurdles in representing small numbers, in this work we observed a mismatch between LNS and the emerging Large Language Models (LLM), where LLM exhibits significant outliers when directly adopting the LNS format. In this paper, we present a data-format/architecture codesign to bright this gap. On the format side, we propose a dynamic LNS format to flexibly represent outliers at a higher precision, by exploiting asymmetry in the LNS representation and identifying outliers through a per-vector basis. On the architecture side, for demonstration, we realize the dynamic LNS format in a systolic array, which can handle the irregularity of the outliers at runtime. We implement our approach on an Alveo U280 FPGA as a prototype. Experimental results show that our design can effectively handle the outliers and resolve the mismatch between LNS and LLM, contributing to an accuracy improvement of 15.4% and 16% over the floating-point and the original LNS baselines, using four state-of-the-art LLM models. Our observation and design lay a solid foundation for the large-scale adoption of the LNS format in the next-generation deep learning hardware.

Haghi, Pouya↗