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NASA NTRS2021

Acceleration Factors for Reliability Assessment of Polymer Tantalum Capacitors

Using polymer tantalum capacitors in Hi-Rel systems requires an assessment of the reliability characteristics of the parts. For this assessment, tantalum capacitors are typically subjected to reliability testing at temperatures and voltages exceeding their specified values, and the failure rate (FR) — or the probability of failure during use conditions — is calculated based on voltage and temperature acceleration factors. In this work, various types and lots of polymer tantalum capacitors have been tested at highly accelerated life test (HALT) conditions and the acceleration factors have been determined using different techniques. It has been shown that the behavior of capacitors under HALT conditions can be described based on the time-dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model, which explains the presence of infant mortality (IM) and wear-out failures using the same failure mechanisms and allows for an assessment of the acceleration factors. The difference in acceleration factors obtained using exponential and power models is discussed. Analysis shows that with proper derating, screening, and qualification testing, the reliability of frameless Hi-Rel COTS polymer tantalum capacitors is adequate for space missions.

Alex Eidelman↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Water Resources III: Analyzing Forest Disturbances and Climate Data in Bhutan to Create a Tool for Assisting the Himalayan Environment Rhythm Observation and Evaluation Systems (HEROES) Project

Forest disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks are a major concern in Bhutan, known to cause extensive tree mortality to pine and spruce forests. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER), the Bhutan Foundation, and the Karuna Foundation to assess forest changes for the districts of Bumthang and Haa from 2000 to 2018. The project used preprocessed meteorological data from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), along with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) to assess apparent forest disturbance occurrences and observed climate trends. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) was used to resolve variations in elevation and slope for mountainous regions. Using the Google Earth Engine LandTrendr (LT) code algorithm, along with Landsat data, the team developed an app called Forest Disturbances Detection Toolbox (FDDT) to assess forest changes in Bhutan. The app includes climate variables for the focus districts, along with LT variables, which allows the end users to further examine the cause of disturbances. The team compared geocoordinates for known disturbances with LT disturbance detection products. Although additional work is needed in the future to validate the project end products from the FDDT, the tool will be provided to the project partners to aid forest management efforts in Bhutan.

Tashi Choden↗

NASA NTRS2021

Acceleration Factors for Reliability Assessment of Polymer Tantalum Capacitors

Alex Eidelman↗

NASA NTRS2021

Yonkers Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Environmental and Social Drivers of Urban Heat Vulnerability and Model Urban Cooling Interventions in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, is located directly north of the Bronx in Westchester County and currently hosts a population of nearly 200,000. In response to increasing hot-weather episodes, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality is disproportionately affecting neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with Groundwork Hudson Valley to determine regions within Yonkers that are experiencing the most intense urban heat island effects, identify and rank sociodemographic and environmental determinants of increasing community-level vulnerability, map these vulnerabilities as a combined vulnerability index, complete a proximity analysis of walkability to local cooling centers and health facility locations, and model potential cooling strategies. The study area consisted of Yonkers, NY and the analyses used data from 2015-2020 (June through August). The project utilized NASA Earth observation products including Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). We assessed the benefits of different heat-mitigation scenarios by utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model. Results from these analyses can be used by Groundwork Hudson Valley, supporting the New York State’s Climate Safe Communities Certifiable Planning Actions, expanding knowledge on the relationship between historic redlining and environmental equity, and informing their Climate Safe Neighborhoods initiative to identify and prioritize mitigation efforts to abate the worst impacts of extreme heat.

Jillian Walechka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Earth Observations to Analyze Vegetation Phenology and Climatology in Bhutan to Identify Forest Disturbance

Changes in climate in the Himalayan region cause variability in temperature, precipitation, and phenology. It can also impact the health of coniferous forest ecosystems including increased damage due to aggressive forest pests. Forest disturbance from bark beetle is a major concern in Bhutan, sometimes causing extensive tree mortality to pine and spruce forests. Climatological trends and changes in vegetation phenology were analyzed and incorporated into a tool in Google Earth Engine that identified patches of forest disturbance in Bhutan. Preprocessed phenology and meteorological data from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), along with Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM)+, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) were used within the tool. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and phenology were analyzed throughout Bhutan, and forest disturbance caused by bark beetle was investigated in two districts of the country

Tashi Choden↗

NASA NTRS2021

Southern California Health & Air Quality: Using Remote Sensing to Detect the Frequency and Drivers of Red Tide Blooms in California to Assist in the Management of Human and Marine Exposure to Algal Toxins

In 2020, the dinoflagellate species Lingulodinium polyedra was measured at unprecedented levels off the southern California coast, raising concern for local communities. At high levels, L. polyedra can cause marine life mortality, food-borne illness, and respiratory-related health risks in humans. In partnership with the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Southwest Fisheries Science Center, the California Department of Public Health, and the University of California San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, this project utilized satellite imagery to visualize and analyze spatiotemporal trends of historical red tide events associated with L. polyedra. Using the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership’s (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Aqua’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Change Observation Mission – Climate (GCOM-C) Second Generation Global Imager (SGLI), the team assessed the validity of using multiple sensors in detecting chlorophyll-a as a proxy for dinoflagellate dominated-algal blooms. The results suggest that VIIRS imagery processed using the Color Index algorithm from Hu et al. (2013), amongst all other algorithms and Earth observations assessed, shows the most promise in identifying L. polyedra blooms. The end products included an ArcGIS Dashboard and Google Earth Engine tool that when combined, provided users with spatial and temporal trends, interactive interfaces to analyze the effectiveness of various sensors and algorithms, and an overall contribution to aid in the management of human health and the economy impacted by harmful algal blooms.

Harmful algal bloom↗

NASA NTRS2021

Air Pollution Scenario over Pakistan: Characterization and Ranking of Extremely Polluted Cities using Long-Term Concentrations of Aerosols and Trace Gases

Pakistan ranks third in the world in terms of mortality attributable to air pollution, with aerosol mass concentrations (PM2.5) consistently well above WHO (World Health Organization) air quality guidelines (AQG). However, regulation is dependent on a sparse network of air quality monitoring stations and insufficient ground data. This study utilizes long-term observations of aerosols and trace gases to characterize and rank the air pollution scenarios and pollution characteristics of 80 selected cities in Pakistan. Datasets used include (1) the Aqua and Terra (AquaTerra) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Level 2 Collection 6.1 merged Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products; (2) the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reanalysis PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 data; (3) the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis PM2.5 data, (4) the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and VCD of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), (5) the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) Nighttime Lights data, (6) MODIS Collection 6 Version 2 global monthly fire location data (MCD14ML), (7) population density, (8) MODIS Level 3 Collection 6 land cover types, (9) AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) Version 3 Level 2.0 data, and (10) ground-based PM2.5 concentrations from air quality monitoring stations. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analyses were performed by integrating with ground-based PM2.5 concentrations and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) air parcel back trajectories to identify potential pollution source areas which are responsible for extreme air pollution in Pakistan. Results show that the ranking of the top polluted cities depends on the type of pollutant considered and the metric used. For example, Jhang, Multan, and Vehari were characterized as the top three polluted cities in Pakistan when considering AquaTerra DTB AOD products; for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Lahore, Gujranwala, and Okara were the top three; for tropospheric NO2 VCD Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad and for PBL SO2 VCD Lahore, Mirpur, and Gujranwala. The results demonstrate that Pakistan’s entire population has been exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations for many years, with a mean annual value of 54.7 μg/cu. m, over all Pakistan from 2003 to 2020. This value exceeds Pakistan’s National Environmental Quality Standards (Pak-NEQS, i.e., <15 μg/cu. m annual mean) for ambient air defined by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) as well as the WHO Interim Target-1 (i.e., mean annual PM2.5 <35 μg/cu. m). The spatial analyses of the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases in terms of population density, nighttime lights, land cover types, and fire location data, and the PSCF analysis indicate that Pakistan’s air quality is strongly affected by anthropogenic sources inside of Pakistan, with contributions from surrounding countries. Statistically significant positive (increasing) trends in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, tropospheric NO2 VCD, and SO2 VCD were observed in ~89%, ~67%, ~48%, 91%, and ~88% of the Pakistani cities (80 cities), respectively. This comprehensive analysis of aerosol and trace gas levels, their characteristics in spatio-temporal domains, and their trends over Pakistan, is the first of its kind. Results will be helpful to the Ministry of Climate Change (Government of Pakistan), Pak-EPA, SUPARCO (Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission), policymakers, and the local research community to mitigate air pollution and its effects on human health.

Muhammad Bilal↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

NASA NTRS2021

Recovery: Fast and Slow—Vegetation Response During the 2012–2016 California Drought

The 2012–2016 California Drought severely impacted natural vegetation across a wide range of environmental gradient. Although several studies have reported an increase in plant water stress and mortality, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem productivity responses and the associated environmental and biological drivers remain unclear. Here, using Enhanced Vegetation Index from the Moderate resolution imaging spectrometer, we found that 45% of the natural ecosystems showed an abrupt change (breakpoint [BP]) in productivity during 2012–2016. There were three major contrasting temporal patterns of productivity responses: (i) a steady increase under higher temperature followed by a decline due to accumulated moisture depletion (high elevation forest) or temperature decrease (high elevation nonforest), (ii) gradual decline during the drought followed by a rapid recovery within 1 year after drought stress was partially relieved, and (iii) both a gradual decline and an abrupt decline. The magnitude of abrupt changes was negatively correlated (r = −0.80, p < 0.001) with initial gradual changes. Overall, changes during BP offset, on average, 57% of the preceding gradual responses. The spatial variability in ecosystem response patterns is driven by both environmental and biological factors. Particularly, for forests, positive BP was driven by increasing rainfall and decreasing temperature, while negative BP was mainly driven by the precipitation anomaly. By 2019, 33% of the natural vegetation have recovered to the level of EVI in 2010. Ecosystem responses to multiyear droughts can influence ecosystem dynamics in a complex pattern. Multiple ecohydrological factors should be considered to understand and predict the long-term drought impacts on ecosystems.

Xi Yang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Storm Surge and Ponding Explain Mangrove Dieback in Southwest Florida Following Hurricane Irma

Mangroves buffer inland ecosystems from hurricane winds and storm surge. However, their ability to withstand harsh cyclone conditions depends on plant resilience traits and geomorphology. Using airborne lidar and satellite imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma, we estimated that 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage, with largest impacts in tall forests (>10 m). Mangroves on well-drained sites (83%) resprouted new leaves within one year after the storm. By contrast, in poorly-drained inland sites, we detected one of the largest mangrove diebacks on record (10,760 ha), triggered by Irma. We found evidence that the combination of low elevation (median = 9.4 cm asl), storm surge water levels (>1.4 m above the ground surface), and hydrologic isolation drove coastal forest vulnerability and were independent of tree height or wind exposure. Our results indicated that storm surge and ponding caused dieback, not wind. Tidal restoration and hydrologic management in these vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas can reduce mangrove mortality and improve resilience to future cyclones.

David Lagomasino↗

NASA NTRS2022

Yonkers Urban Development II: Leveraging NASA Earth Observations to Support Modeling Urban Cooling Interventions and Urban Heat Vulnerability in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, located in Westchester County, is experiencing rising temperatures which are a growing threat to the health and safety of its residents. Furthermore, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality disproportionately affects neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. To better understand these inequities, Groundwork Hudson Valley and NASA DEVELOP collaborated for a second term to evaluate community-level heat vulnerability, landcover distribution, street-level thermal comfort, and modeled urban cooling interventions. This team applied 2019 5-year American Community Survey (ACS) data and social and biophysical heat vulnerability variables established by the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH), along with land surface temperature (LST) data collected from Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ISS ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) to identify communities in Yonkers in need of prioritized cooling intervention at the census tract level. Data from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) provided relevant meteorological data for the ENVI-met model to conduct street-level thermal observations and model tree canopy cooling interventions in the Yonkers neighborhoods of Kimball and Old 7th Ward. The project results will support the prioritization and equitable distribution of cooling infrastructure in identified neighborhoods. Additionally, Groundwork Hudson Valley will use the analyses as a heat literacy tool to improve advocacy efforts and inform both residents and officials about how investment in deliberate modification to tree canopy cover improves the city’s thermal environment and helps mitigate extreme heat.

Tamara Barbakova↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Boreal Forest Spruce Beetle Health Status at the Individual Crown Scale Using Fused Spectral and Structural Data

The frequency and severity of spruce bark beetle outbreaks are increasing in boreal forests leading to widespread tree mortality and fuel conditions promoting extreme wildfire. Detection of beetle infestation is a forest health monitoring (FHM) priority but is hampered by the challenges of detecting early stage (“green”) attack from the air. There is indication that green stage might be detected from vertical gradients of spectral data or from shortwave infrared information distributed within a single crown. To evaluate the efficacy of discriminating “non-infested”, “green”, and “dead” health statuses at the landscape scale in Alaska, USA, this study conducted spectral and structural fusion of data from: (1) Unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral (6 cm) + structure from motion point clouds (~700 pts per sq. m); and (2) Goddard Lidar Hyperspectral Thermal (G-LiHT) hyperspectral (400 to 1000 nm, 0.5 m) + SWIR-band lidar (~32 pts per sq.m). We achieved 78% accuracy for all three health statuses using spectral + structural fusion from either UAV or G-LiHT and 97% accuracy for non-infested/dead using G-LiHT. We confirm that UAV 3D spectral (e.g., greenness above versus below median height in crown) and lidar apparent reflectance metrics (e.g., mean reflectance at 99th percentile height in crown), are of high value, perhaps capturing the vertical gradient of needle degradation. In most classification exercises, UAV accuracy was lower than G-LiHT indicating that collecting ultra-high spatial resolution data might be less important than high spectral resolution information. While the value of passive optical spectral information was largely confined to the discrimination of non-infested versus dead crowns, G-LiHT hyperspectral band selection (~400, 675, 755, and 940 nm) could inform future FHM mission planning regarding optimal wavelengths for this task. Interestingly, the selected regions mostly did not align with the band designations for our UAV multispectral data but do correspond to, e.g., Sentinel-2 red edge bands, suggesting a path forward for moderate scale bark beetle detection when paired with suitable structural data.

Janice Cessna↗

NASA NTRS2022

Useful Life of Tantalum Capacitors

Currently, the major reliability characteristic of tantalum capacitors is the failure rate, which is a constant used to characterize random failures of electronic components. However, contemporary MnO2 and polymer tantalum capacitors have both infant mortality (IM) and wear-out (WO) failures. This requires assessments of the useful life of the parts that is limited by the time of inception of WO failures that can be determined using an adequate reliability model and results of highly accelerated life testing (HALT). In this presentation, a modified time dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model is used to describe both IM and WO failures during HALT. Specifics of physical processes resulting in degradation and failures in polymer and MnO2 tantalum capacitors are discussed, and the increase of IM failures with the level of stress is explained. The model justifies exponential dependence of the acceleration factors on voltage and predicts higher values of the voltage acceleration constant for IM compared to WO failures.

tantalum capacitors↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tribology Induced Water Pump Bearing Failure

NASA’s In-Space Propulsion facility experienced two infant mortality water pump bearing failures during a recent refurbishment campaign, the cause or causes of which were unclear. A forensic failure study was undertaken that included site visits, collection and examination of physical evidence and a bearing and pump design review. The pumps are large (2000 hp) vertical turbine design machines that utilize metallic sleeve bearings cooled and lubricated by the pumped fluid (water). Though initial possible root cause for the failures were attributed to improper fabrication and debris contamination, detailed examination of failure surfaces combined with bearing design revealed that the failure mode was thermal seizure brought on by inadequate cooling flow. An unusual contributing factor was that the use of grease as an assembly lubricant, as opposed to a fluid like oil, appears to have exacerbated the rather than alleviated the thermal runaway by blocking water flow. Resolution of the problem was achieved through the design and installation of dedicated bearing lubrication water feed system.

bearings↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

NASA NTRS2022

Premature Deaths in Africa Due to Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios

Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to fine particulate matter in Africa under a “baseline” scenario with high material consumption, population growth, and warming to that projected under a sustainability scenario with lower consumption, population growth, and warming. Evaluating the mortality impacts of these exposures, we find that under the low warming scenario annual premature deaths due to PM2.5 are reduced by roughly 515,000 by 2050 relative to the high warming scenario (100,000, 175,000, 55,000, 140,000, and 45,000 in Northern, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa, respectively). This reduction rises to ∼800,000 by the 2090s, though by that time much of the difference is attributable to the projected differences in population. By contrast, during the first half of the century benefits are driven predominantly by emissions changes. Depending on the region, we find large intermodel spreads of ∼25%–50% in projected future exposures owing to different physics across the ensemble of 6 global models. The spread of projected deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter, including uncertainty in the exposure-response function, are reduced in every region to ∼20%–35% by the non-linear exposure-response function. Differences between the scenarios have an even narrower spread of ∼5%–25% and are highly statistically significant in all regions for all models. These results provide valuable information for policy-makers to consider when working toward climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals.

PM2.5↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impact of Pacific Ocean Heatwaves on Phytoplankton Community Composition

Since 2013, marine heatwaves have become recurrent throughout the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean and are expected to increase in intensity relative to historic norms. Among the ecological ramifications associated with these high temperature anomalies are increased mortality of higher trophic organisms such as marine mammals and seabirds, which are likely triggered by changes in the composition of phytoplankton, the base of the marine trophic food web. Here, we assimilated satellite ocean color data into an ocean biogeochemical model to describe changes in the abundance of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) during the last decade's (2010s) warm anomalies in the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean. We find important changes associated with the "Blob" warm anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska, where reduced silica supply led to a switch in community composition from diatoms to dinoagellates, resulting in an increase in surface ocean chlorophyll during the Summer-Fall of 2014. A more dramatic change was observed in the equatorial Pacific, where the extreme warm conditions of the 2016 El Niño resulted in a major decline of about 40 % in surface chlorophyll, which was associated with a nearly total collapse in diatoms.

Pacific Ocean↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

New York Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Ash Distribution and Inform Emerald Ash Borer Control

Since their first sightings in the U.S. in 2002, emerald ash borer beetles (Agrilus planipennis; EAB) have killed millions of native ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees across 35 states. Infected ash stands frequently exhibit complete mortality, with the predicted result being the functional extinction of native ash in U.S. forests. In August of 2020, EAB was discovered in the 6.1-million-acre Adirondack Park. The team’s partners at the Adirondack Park Invasive Plant Program (APIPP) desired ash tree distribution and EAB susceptibility information to help improve EAB bio-control efficiency and apply the methodology to future invasive programs. To assist, the team mapped ash tree distribution using NASA Earth observations from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), along with hyperspectral imagery from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Field data from the Monitoring and Managing Ash (MaMA) project, iMapInvasives and iNaturalist databases, and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) provided ground truthing for mapping and modeling. Results indicate that for ash detection, the team’s Spectral Angle Mapping (SAM) hyperspectral classification is slightly more sensitive but less accurate than multispectral Random Forest (RF) classification, though neither method was above a ~20% detection rate. End products include maps of ash extent derived from both imagery types, a model forecasting future spread scenarios based on current EAB presence, and outreach materials. These products inform APIPP’s management decisions and facilitate public awareness of EAB’s threat to communities within the region.

Liam Megraw↗