Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model structural error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Learning to concentrate: multi-tracer forecasts on local primordial non-Gaussianity with machine-learned bias

Local primordial non-Gaussianity (LPNG) is predicted by many non-minimal models of inflation, and creates a scale-dependent contribution to the power spectrum of large-scale structure (LSS) tracers, whose amplitude is characterized by b Φ . Knowledge of b Φ for the observed tracer population is therefore crucial for learning about inflation from LSS. Recently, it has been shown that the relationship between linear bias b 1 and b Φ for simulated halos exhibits significant secondary dependence on halo concentration. We leverage this fact to forecast multi-tracer constraints on ${f}^{loc}_{NL}$. We train a machine learning model on observable properties of simulated IllustrisTNG galaxies to predict b Φ for samples constructed to approximate DESI emission line galaxies (ELGs) and luminous red galaxies (LRGs). We find σ(${f}^{loc}_{NL}$) = 2.3, and σ(${f}^{loc}_{NL}$) = 3.7, respectively. These forecasted errors are roughly factors of 3, and 35% improvements over the single-tracer case for each sample, respectively. When considering both ELGs and LRGs in their overlap region, we forecast σ(${f}^{loc}_{NL}$) = 1.5 is attainable with our learned model, more than a factor of 3 improvement over the single-tracer case, while the ideal split by b Φ could reach σ(${f}^{loc}_{NL}$) < 1. In conclusion, we also perform multi-tracer forecasts for upcoming spectroscopic surveys targeting LPNG (MegaMapper, SPHEREx) and show that splitting tracer samples by b Φ can lead to an order-of-magnitude reduction in projected σ(${f}^{loc}_{NL}$) for these surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Spectral functions with the density matrix renormalization group: Krylov-space approach for correction vectors

Frequency-dependent correlations, such as the spectral function and the dynamical structure factor, help illustrate condensed matter experiments. Within the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) framework, an accurate method for calculating spectral functions directly in frequency is the correction-vector method. The correction vector can be computed by solving a linear equation or by minimizing a functional. Our paper proposes an alternative to calculate the correction vector: to use the Krylov-space approach. Further, this paper also studies the accuracy and performance of the Krylov-space approach, when applied to the Heisenberg, the t-J, and the Hubbard models. The cases we studied indicate that the Krylov-space approach can be more accurate and efficient than the conjugate gradient, and that the error of the former integrates best when a Krylov-space decomposition is also used for ground state DMRG.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Fast Mix Table Construction for Material Discretization

An effective hybrid Monte Carlo--deterministic implementation typically requires the approximation of a continuous geometry description with a discretized piecewise-constant material field. The inherent geometry discretization error can be reduced somewhat by using material mixing, where multiple materials inside a discrete mesh voxel are homogenized. Material mixing requires the construction of a ``mix table,'' which stores the volume fractions in every mixture so that multiple voxels with similar compositions can reference the same mixture. Mix table construction is a potentially expensive serial operation for large problems with many materials and voxels. We formulate an efficient algorithm to construct a sparse mix table in $O(\text{number of voxels}\times \log \text{number of mixtures})$ time. The new algorithm is implemented in ADVANTG and used to discretize continuous geometries onto a structured Cartesian grid. When applied to an end-of-life MCNP model of the High Flux Isotope Reactor with 270 distinct materials, the new method improves the material mixing time by a factor of 100 compared to a naive mix table implementation.

Johnson, Seth R↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to avoid multiple scattering in strongly scattering SANS and USANS samples

Small Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) and Ultra Small Angle Neutron Scattering (USANS) are the only available experimental techniques to provide seamless non-destructive measurements of the geometry of the accessible and inaccessible pore structure of rocks from sub-nanopore size to the scale of macropores. They have therefore become the measurement of choice for tight reservoir rocks such as organic rich shales. A simplifying assumption in the analysis is, however, that during the path of neutrons through the sample each neutron is only scattered once. Shales are samples with a high scattering power and Multiple Scattering (MS) may occur which requires special modelling for deconvolution of the results. The approach to avoid MS is to simply reduce the sample thickness to <0.15–0.5 mm. Here, in this work, we present a systematic method on wavelength selection and preparation of samples to optimise extraction of microstructural data and minimise parasitic errors. Experimentally measured SAS transmission (TSAS) values are used as a practical criterion for estimation of the extent of MS. Generous beamtime allocations allowed robust testing revealing that sample thicknesses can be twice as thick as predicted using the standard protocol. Analysing thicker samples is particularly beneficial for statistically relevant characterisation of heterogeneous samples making the new protocol the method of choice for such samples.

(U)SANS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Benchmarking density functionals for hydrogen-helium mixtures with quantum Monte Carlo: Energetics, pressures, and forces

An accurate understanding of the phase diagram of dense hydrogen and helium mixtures is a crucial component in the construction of accurate models of Jupiter, Saturn, and Jovian extrasolar planets. Though DFT based rst principles methods have the potential to provide the accuracy and computational e ciency required for this task, recent benchmarking in hydrogen has shown that achieving this accuracy requires a judicious choice of functional, and a quanti cation of the errors introduced. In this work, we present a quantum Monte Carlo based benchmarking study of a wide range of density functionals for use in hydrogen-helium mixtures at thermodynamic conditions relevant for Jovian planets. Not only do we continue our program of benchmarking energetics and pressures, but we deploy QMC based force estimators and use them to gain insights into how well the local liquid structure is captured by di erent density functionals. We nd that TPSS, BLYP and vdW-DF are the most accurate functionals by most metrics, and that the enthalpy, energy, and pressure errors are very well behaved as a function of helium concentration. Beyond this, we highlight and analyze the major error trends and relative di erences exhibited by the major classes of functionals, and estimate the magnitudes of these e ects when possible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Fast patient-specific Monte Carlo brachytherapy dose calculations via the correlated sampling variance reduction technique

Purpose: To demonstrate potential of correlated sampling Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation to improve the calculation efficiency for permanent seed brachytherapy (PSB) implants without loss of accuracy. Methods: CMC was implemented within an in-house MC code family (PTRAN) and used to compute 3D dose distributions for two patient cases: a clinical PSB postimplant prostate CT imaging study and a simulated post lumpectomy breast PSB implant planned on a screening dedicated breast cone-beam CT patient exam. CMC tallies the dose difference, {Delta}D, between highly correlated histories in homogeneous and heterogeneous geometries. The heterogeneous geometry histories were derived from photon collisions sampled in a geometrically identical but purely homogeneous medium geometry, by altering their particle weights to correct for bias. The prostate case consisted of 78 Model-6711 {sup 125}I seeds. The breast case consisted of 87 Model-200 {sup 103}Pd seeds embedded around a simulated lumpectomy cavity. Systematic and random errors in CMC were unfolded using low-uncertainty uncorrelated MC (UMC) as the benchmark. CMC efficiency gains, relative to UMC, were computed for all voxels, and the mean was classified in regions that received minimum doses greater than 20%, 50%, and 90% of D{sub 90}, as well as for various anatomical regions. Results: Systematic errors in CMC relative to UMC were less than 0.6% for 99% of the voxels and 0.04% for 100% of the voxels for the prostate and breast cases, respectively. For a 1 x 1 x 1 mm{sup 3} dose grid, efficiency gains were realized in all structures with 38.1- and 59.8-fold average gains within the prostate and breast clinical target volumes (CTVs), respectively. Greater than 99% of the voxels within the prostate and breast CTVs experienced an efficiency gain. Additionally, it was shown that efficiency losses were confined to low dose regions while the largest gains were located where little difference exists between the homogeneous and heterogeneous doses. On an AMD 1090T processor, computing times of 38 and 21 sec were required to achieve an average statistical uncertainty of 2% within the prostate (1 x 1 x 1 mm{sup 3}) and breast (0.67 x 0.67 x 0.8 mm{sup 3}) CTVs, respectively. Conclusions: CMC supports an additional average 38-60 fold improvement in average efficiency relative to conventional uncorrelated MC techniques, although some voxels experience no gain or even efficiency losses. However, for the two investigated case studies, the maximum variance within clinically significant structures was always reduced (on average by a factor of 6) in the therapeutic dose range generally. CMC takes only seconds to produce an accurate, high-resolution, low-uncertainly dose distribution for the low-energy PSB implants investigated in this study.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting Multi-Material Composite Structures with Homogenized Composite Properties

Composite structures inherently develop residual stresses during their curing process. Driven predominately by mismatched thermal strains between differing materials or ply orientations, but also affected by curing process phenomena like polymer shrinkage, these residual stresses can lead to failure within composite structures. There are several methods varying in complexity that can be used to model the development of residual stresses, all of which are capable of capturing sufficient detail to understand the residual stress state at the ply level. However, explicitly modeling all plies of a layup in a composite structure can be prohibitively expensive based on the number of plies, structure size, and required element size. The computational cost can be reduced through the homogenization of the composite layup without losing much fidelity of the overall response of the structure. The homogenization process reduces the many plies of a laminate to a single lamina that reduces complexity and increases the mesh size where a single element can span multiple plies. This report focuses on verification and validation efforts for a homogenization process using a suite of finite element simulations rather than an analytic solution derived from classical laminate theory. Initial verification using representative element volumes indicated there was minimal error in the homogenization process; however, this compounded to a small, but acceptable error in strip and split ring experimental composite structures. The error does under predict the residual stress state in the strip and split ring and should be accounted for when simulating composite structures with homogenized properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variation in surface properties as error sources in dynamic temperature measurements

Most temperature measurement methods rely upon the assumption of a single uniform source as part of the analysis in inferring an observed temperature T from the surface of a material. This is true for the radiometric and spectroscopic methods we rely upon in shock physics. However, there are obvious cases where this is a poor assumption that can cause large errors in analysis, such as the measurement of emission from a surface composed of more than one material, such as a rusted surface of Fe and Fe 2 O 3 , or a multi-material surface that could be produced through alloying methods (e.g., mokume gane) or 3D printing. Here we perform an initial examination of the effects of varied surface properties upon the analysis using idealized test data to constrain when we may have better confidence in the resulting calculations. We also examine the structures of the fits to test whether, in principle, comparing the fit with ideal gray bodies would reveal such a structure and enable the researcher to identify when a two-temperature fitting model should be used instead of a single- T model or a wavelength-dependent emissivity model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2018

A digital twin for rapid qualification of 3D printed metallic components

The customized production of complex components by 3D printing has been hailed as a potentially transformative tool in manufacturing with important applications in health care, automotive and aerospace industries. However, after about a quarter of a century of research and development, only a handful of commercial alloys can be printed and the market value of all 3D printed products now amounts to a negligible portion of the manufacturing economy. This difficulty is attributable to a remarkable diversity in structure and properties of the printed components and susceptibility to defects. In addition, the current practice of qualifying components by prolonged trial and error with expensive printing equipment and feed stock material confine the printed products to a niche market where the high product cost and the delay in the qualification are not critical factors. In this report we explain how a digital twin or a digital replica of the printing machine will reduce the number of trial and error tests to obtain desired product attributes and reduce the time required for part qualification to make the printed components cost effective. It is shown that a comprehensive digital twin of 3D printing machine consisting of mechanistic, control and statistical models of 3D printing, machine learning and big data can reduce the volume of trial and error testing, reduce defects and shorten time between the design and production.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fourier-like Thermal Relaxation of Nanoscale Explosive Hot Spots

Hot spots are local regions of high temperature that are widely considered to govern explosive initiation. Hot spot dynamics rests on a delicate balance between heat generation due to chemical reactions and heat loss through thermal conduction, making accurate determinations of the conductivity under extreme conditions a key component of predictive explosive models. We develop here an approach to directly determine the thermal transport properties of explosive hot spots with realistic initial structures through a combination of molecular dynamics (MD) and diffusive heat equation (HEq) modeling. Effective thermal conductivity values are determined by fitting HEq models to MD predictions of long timescale hot spot relaxation. The approach is applied to model hot spots in the molecular crystalline explosive 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) for a range of shock strengths and two limiting cases for impact orientation. Isotropic and anisotropic HEq models yield similar results, despite TATB exhibiting some of the largest and most anisotropic thermal conductivity values for explosive near normal conditions. The conductivity is found to be a strong function of density, which parametrically captures dependence on temperature, pressure, and material state. The associated root-mean-square errors of the fitted HEq models are approximately 5% of MD predicted final equilibrium temperatures. Here, the conductivity values determined here for TATB hot spots are considerably larger than those used in a prior hot spot criticality study, which may significantly impact predictions for critical hot spot sizes. The approach provides a convenient foundation for determining the effective thermal conductivity for hot spot problems in other explosives and directly yields information on reasonable approximations that might be taken in higher-level models for those materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Motion Planning Algorithms for Safety and Quantum Computing Efficiency

Motion planning remains a fundamental problem in robotics. Sampling-based algorithms use randomization to allow efficient solutions to this complex problem. As mobile robots and autonomous vehicles become more prevalent in everyday life, motion planning must be applied to increasingly challenging scenarios. Safety has become a paramount concern in motion planning for ensuring robotic applications enrich human lives. To date, many motion planning techniques to increase safety in the face of uncertain and dynamic environments have been developed. This dissertation first addresses distributional safety of Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees (RRT) through our algorithm W-Safe RRT. To acknowledge distributional uncertainty and poor modeling, W-Safe RRT uses the Wasserstein metric to provide a probabilistic bound on the distributional distance between a robot and obstacles. Human-interpretable environmental agent classification allows online safety margin adaptation. We propose and analyze an integrating region method for online classification that increases actor labeling accuracy based on behavioral feature values when compared to state of the art methods. The method performs class assignments based on local maximum likelihood in a created behavioral feature-space, allowing a notion of classification uncertainty. Model-based methods with safety guarantees can quickly become computationally in tractable, especially with multiple agents, higher dimensions, and plentiful unknowns. Sampling based algorithms have been parallelized for computation with multi-core computers and GPUs. We consider the use of quantum algorithms and computers for sampling-based motion planning for the first time. Quantum computing performs operations on superpositions of states and can solve certain problems much more efficiently than classical computers, but introduces previously unseen challenges. With Quantum-RRT, we recast the motion planning problem into a database-search structure and use Quantum Amplitude Amplification to find reachable states in the database with a quadratic performance increase over classical methods. We address two error sources with this method: quantum measurement and quantum oracle errors. We then extend this method to Parallel Quantum-RRT, which uses a manager-worker architecture with multiple parallel quantum workers to increase database search efficiency. We compare algorithm architectures and characterize probabilities of multiple workers finding solutions. Lastly, we test in simulation the quantum algorithms against classical versions in a wide variety of scenarios, concluding that a similar parallelization improvement is to be found in the quantum case as was found in the parallelization of classical RRT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2022

Density functional theory of water with the machine-learned DM21 functional

The delicate interplay between functional-driven and density-driven errors in density functional theory (DFT) has hindered traditional density functional approximations (DFAs) from providing an accurate description of water for over 30 years. Recently, the deep-learned DeepMind 21 (DM21) functional has been shown to overcome the limitations of traditional DFAs as it is free of delocalization error. To determine if DM21 can enable a molecular-level description of the physical properties of aqueous systems within Kohn–Sham DFT, we assess the accuracy of the DM21 functional for neutral, protonated, and deprotonated water clusters. Furthermore, we find that the ability of DM21 to accurately predict the energetics of aqueous clusters varies significantly with cluster size. Additionally, we introduce the many-body MB-DM21 potential derived from DM21 data within the many-body expansion of the energy and use it in simulations of liquid water as a function of temperature at ambient pressure. We find that size-dependent functional-driven errors identified in the analysis of the energetics of small clusters calculated with the DM21 functional result in the MB-DM21 potential systematically overestimating the hydrogen-bond strength and, consequently, predicting a more ice-like local structure of water at room temperature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Configurational-Bias Monte Carlo Back-Mapping Algorithm for Efficient and Rapid Conversion of Coarse-Grained Water Structures into Atomistic Models

Coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations represent a powerful approach to simulate longer time scale and larger length scale phenomena than those accessible to all-atom models. The gain in efficiency, however, comes at the cost of atomistic details. The reverse transformation, also known as back-mapping, of coarse grained beads into their atomistic constituents represents a major challenge. Most existing approaches are limited to specific molecules or specific force-fields and often rely on running a long time atomistic MD of the back-mapped configuration to arrive at an optimal solution. Such approaches are problematic when dealing with systems with high diffusion barriers. Here, we introduce a new extension of the configurational-bias-Monte-Carlo (CBMC) algorithm, which we term the crystalline-configurational-bias-Monte-Carlo (C-CBMC) algortihm, that allows rapid and efficient conversion of a coarse-grained model back into its atomistic representation. Although the method is generic, we use a coarse-grained water model as a representative example and demonstrate the back-mapping or reverse transformation for model systems ranging from the ice-liquid water interface to amorphous and crystalline ice configurations. A series of simulations using the TIP4P/Ice model are performed to compare the new CBMC method to several other standard Monte Carlo and Molecular Dynamics based back-mapping techniques. In all the cases, the C-CBMC algorithm is able to find optimal hydrogen bonded configuration many thousand evaluations/steps sooner than the other methods compared within this paper. For crystalline ice structures such as a hexagonal, cubic, and cubic-hexagonal stacking disorder structures, the C-CBMC was able to find structures that were between 0.05 and 0.1 eV/water molecule lower in energy than the ground state energies predicted by the other methods. Detailed analysis of the atomistic structures show a significantly better global hydrogen positioning when contrasted with the existing simpler back-mapping methods. The error in the RDFs of backmapped relative to reference configuration for the CCBMC, MD, and MC were found to be 6.9, 8.7, and 12.9 respectively for the hexagonal system. For the cubic system the relative error of the RDFs for the CCBMC, MD, and MC were found to be 18.2, 34.6, and 39.0 respectively. Finally, our results demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of our new back-mapping approach, especially for crystalline systems where simple force-field based relaxations have a tendency to get trapped in local minima.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

A TWO-YEAR TIME DELAY FOR THE LENSED QUASAR SDSS J1029+2623

We present 279 epochs of optical monitoring data spanning 5.4 years from 2007 January to 2012 June for the largest image separation (22.''6) gravitationally lensed quasar, SDSS J1029+2623. We find that image A leads the images B and C by {Delta} t {sub AB} = (744 {+-} 10) days (90% confidence); the uncertainty includes both statistical uncertainties and systematic differences due to the choice of models. With only a {approx}1% fractional error, the interpretation of the delay is limited primarily by cosmic variance due to fluctuations in the mean line-of-sight density. We cannot separate the fainter image C from image B, but since image C trails image B by only 2-3 days in all models, the estimate of the time delay between images A and B is little affected by combining the fluxes of images B and C. There is weak evidence for a low level of microlensing, perhaps created by the small galaxy responsible for the flux ratio anomaly in this system. Interpreting the delay depends on better constraining the shape of the gravitational potential using the lensed host galaxy, other lensed arcs, and the structure of the X-ray emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗