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At least 937 records · Page 52

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inferring relative dose-dependent color center populations in proton irradiated thoria single crystals using optical spectroscopy

In this work, we have utilized photoluminescence spectroscopy and optical ellipsometry to characterize the dose-dependence of the photoluminescence emission intensity and changes in optical absorption of thoria single crystals subject to irradiation with energetic protons at room- and elevated-temperatures. The photoluminescence peaks and the optical absorption bands are attributed to creation of new electronic states emerging from defects resulting from displacement damage. These bands are most likely associated with electrons trapped at the oxygen vacancy sites similar to color centers formed in other irradiated oxides and halides. Our experimental observations are supported by a standard density functional theory calculation of the electronic structure in pristine and oxygen vacancy-bearing thoria crystals. The dose-dependence of the intensity of the photoluminescence peaks is used to parameterize a rate theory model that estimates the concentration of color centers in the irradiated crystals. This parameterization provides optimized migration barrier parameters for oxygen interstitials and vacancies that simultaneously capture the optical response of the crystals irradiated at room- and elevated-temperature. These optical spectroscopy techniques offer a promising pathway to characterize the population of color centers formed at the sites of oxygen anion vacancies, particularly in irradiated nuclear fuels, where atomic-level defects cannot be readily imaged using electron microscopy. When combined with other direct and indirect characterization tools, our approach can provide new insight into defect formation and accumulation in energy materials over single atomic to extended length scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers) to simulate organized convection, principally mesoscale convective systems. With the use of convective parameterization, high precipitation biases in model simulations are typically observed over the peaks of mountain ranges. To address this issue, the Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization scheme has been modified with new diagnostic equations to compute the updraft velocity, the convective available potential energy closure assumption, and the convective trigger function. The scheme has been adapted for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). A numerical weather prediction-type simulation is conducted for the North American Monsoon Experiment Intensive Observing Period 2 and a regional climate simulation is performed, by dynamically downscaling. In both of these applications, there are notable improvements in the WRF model-simulated precipitation due to the better representation of organized, propagating convection. The use of the modified KF scheme for atmospheric model simulations may provide a more computationally economical alternative to improve the representation of organized convection, as compared to convective-permitting simulations at the kilometer scale or a super-parameterization approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prognostic residual mean flow in an ocean general circulation model and its relation to prognostic Eulerian mean flow

Recent work has shown that taking the thickness-weighted average (TWA) of the Boussinesq equations in buoyancy coordinates results in exact equations governing the prognostic residual mean flow where eddy–mean flow interactions appear in the horizontal momentum equations as the divergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux tensor (EPFT). It has been proposed that, given the mathematical tractability of the TWA equations, the physical interpretation of the EPFT, and its relation to potential vorticity fluxes, the TWA is an appropriate framework for modeling ocean circulation with parameterized eddies. The authors test the feasibility of this proposition and investigate the connections between the TWA framework and the conventional framework used in models, where Eulerian mean flow prognostic variables are solved for. Using the TWA framework as a starting point, this study explores the well-known connections between vertical transfer of horizontal momentum by eddy form drag and eddy overturning by the bolus velocity, used by Greatbatch and Lamb and Gent and McWilliams to parameterize eddies. After implementing the TWA framework in an ocean general circulation model, we verify our analysis by comparing the flows in an idealized Southern Ocean configuration simulated using the TWA and conventional frameworks with the same mesoscale eddy parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part II: Modeling Study

Abstract Part I of this series presented a detailed overview of postfrontal mixed-phase clouds observed during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign. In Part II, we focus on a multiday (23–26 February 2018) case with the aim of understanding ice production as well as model sensitivity to ice process parameterizations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The control simulation with the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme underestimates the ice content and overestimates the supercooled liquid water content, contrary to the bias common in global climate models. The simulations targeted at ice production processes show negligible sensitivity to cloud droplet number concentrations. Further, neither increasing ice nuclei particle (INP) concentrations to an unrealistic level nor adjusting it to MARCUS field estimations alone guarantees more ice production in the model. However, the simulated clouds are found to be highly sensitive to the implementation of immersion freezing, the thresholding of condensation/deposition freezing initiation, and the rime splintering process. By increasing immersion freezing of cloud droplets, relaxing thresholds for condensation/deposition freezing, or removing rime splintering thresholds, the model significantly improves its performance in producing ice. The relaxation of the immersion freezing temperature threshold to the observed cloud-top temperature suggests an in-cloud seeder–feeder mechanism. The results of this work call for an increase in observations of INP, especially over the remote Southern Ocean and at relatively high temperatures, and measurements of ice particle size distributions to better constrain ice nucleating processes in models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Lower length scale model for palladium attack of silicon carbide in TRISO fuel

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuels rely on silicon carbide (SiC) as the primary barrier for metallic fission product (FP) release. Palladium (Pd) generated by fission degrades the SiC layer, resulting in the formation of lamellar layers of palladium silicides (PdxSi) and carbon (C) perpendicular to the direction of attack. The Pd attack has been hypothesized to be responsible for failure of the SiC layer and enhance FP release. To better understand and quantify Pd attack of SiC in TRISO particles, a multiscale, mechanistic model of Pd transport is being developed by the NEAMS program. Previous work provided an initial hypothesis for modeling lamellar microstructure formation in SiC due to Pd attack using a phase-field model. The work described in this report builds on the previous model by using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to parameterize the phase-field model kinetics, and build a reduced order model in BISON using the improved mesoscale Pd penetration model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

ACCMIP↗

Simulated wind farm wake sensitivity to configuration choices in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.8.1

Wakes from wind farms can extend over 50 km downwind in stably stratified conditions. These wakes can undermine power production at downwind turbines, adversely impacting revenue. As such, wind farm wake impacts must be considered in wind resource assessments, especially in regions of dense wind farm development. The open-source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model includes a wind farm parameterization to estimate wind farm wake effects, but model configuration choices can influence the resulting predictions of wind farm wakes. These choices include vertical resolution, horizontal resolution, and whether or not to include the addition of turbulent kinetic energy generated by the rotating wind turbines. Despite the sensitivity to model configuration, no clear guidance currently exists for these options. Here we compare simulated wind farm wakes produced by varying model configurations with meteorological observations near a land-based wind farm in flat terrain over several diurnal cycles. A WRF configuration comprised of horizontal resolutions of 3 km or 1 km paired with a vertical resolution of 10 m provides the most accurate representation of wind farm wake effects, such as the correct surface warming and elevated wind speed deficit. The inclusion of turbine-generated turbulence is also critical to produce accurate surface warming and should not be omitted.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Study of Multi-Scale Cloud Processes Over the Tropical Western Pacific Using Cloud-Resolving Models Constrained by Satellite Data

Clouds in the tropical western Pacific are an integral part of the large scale environment. An improved understanding of the multi-scale structure of clouds and their interactions with the environment is critical to the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) program for developing and evaluating cloud parameterizations, understanding the consequences of model biases, and providing a context for interpreting the observational data collected over the ARM Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. Three-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs) are powerful tools for developing and evaluating cloud parameterizations. However, a significant challenge in using CRMs in the TWP is that the region lacks conventional data, so large uncertainty exists in defining the large-scale environment for clouds. This project links several aspects of the ARM program, from measurements to providing improved analyses, and from cloud-resolving modeling to climate-scale modeling and parameterization development, with the overall objective to improve the representations of clouds in climate models and to simulate and quantify resolved cloud effects on the large-scale environment. Our objectives will be achieved through a series of tasks focusing on the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ARM data. Our approach includes: - Perform assimilation of COSMIC GPS radio occultation and other satellites products using the WRF Ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation system to represent the tropical large-scale environment at 36 km grid resolution. This high-resolution analysis can be used by the community to derive forcing products for single-column models or cloud-resolving models. - Perform cloud-resolving simulations using WRF and its nesting capabilities, driven by the improved regional analysis and evaluate the simulations against ARM datasets such as from TWP-ICE to optimize the microphysics parameters for this region. A cirrus study (Mace and co-authors) already exists for TWP-ICE using satellite and ground-based observations. - Perform numerical experiments using WRF to investigate how convection over tropical islands in the Maritime Continent interacts with large-scale circulation and affects convection in nearby regions. - Evaluate and apply WRF as a testbed for GCM cloud parameterizations, utilizing the ability of WRF to run on multiple scales (from cloud resolving to global) to isolate resolution and physics issues from dynamical and model framework issues. Key products will be disseminated to the ARM and larger community through distribution of data archives, including model outputs from the data assimilation products and cloud resolving simulations, and publications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Reducing tropical precipitation biases in CESM — Tests of unified parameterizations with ARM observations

In state-of-the-art climate models, each cloud type is treated using its own separate cloud parameterization and its own separate microphysics parameterization. This use of separate schemes for separate cloud regimes is undesirable because it is theoretically unfounded, it hampers interpretation of results, and it leads to the temptation to overtune parameters. In this grant, we are creating a climate model that contains a unified cloud parameterization and a unified microphysics parameterization. This model will be used to address the problems of excessive frequency of drizzle in climate models and excessively early onset of deep convection in the Tropics over land. The resulting model will be compared with ARM observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Parameterized Lateral Mixing on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in a Coupled Climate Model

This study examines the impact of changing the lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi is poorly constrained, with values ranging across an order of magnitude in climate models. The ACC is difficult to accurately simulate, and there is a large spread in eastward transport in the Southern Ocean (SO) in these models. This paper examines how much of that spread can be attributed to different eddy parameterization coefficients. A coarse-resolution, fully coupled model suite was run with A Redi = 400, 800, 1200, and 2400 m 2 s -1 . Additionally, two simulations were run with two-dimensional representations of the mixing coefficient based on satellite altimetry. Relative to the 400 m 2 s -1 case, the 2400 m 2 s -1 case exhibits 1) an 11% decrease in average wind stress from 50° to 65°S, 2) a 20% decrease in zonally averaged eastward transport in the SO, and 3) a 14% weaker transport through the Drake Passage. The decrease in transport is well explained by changes in the thermal current shear, largely due to increases in ocean density occurring on the northern side of the ACC. In intermediate waters these increases are associated with changes in the formation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the deep increases are associated with changes in the wind stress curl allowing Antarctic Bottom Water to escape and flow northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP‐ICE Case Study

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved‐cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale‐aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Colloid-Facilitated Transport: Studies Related to CFM Project at GTS

Presentation Summary: Insights have been gained as to how to obtain defensible answers to predict radionuclide transport in fractured granites. However, site specific studies still need to be performed to to gain confidence in the prediction; The CFT ladder should be applied to evaluate the potential for enhanced transport with colloids, but most indications are that only very small fractions of strongly-sorbing radionuclides will be capable of CFT over repository time and distance scales; CFT requires very slow desorption from colloids AND very slow filtration of the RN-bearing colloids (relative to time scales of interest); Interrogating such slow processes is a challenge, especially if they are associated with a very small fraction of colloids or very small fraction of sorption sites on colloids (or both); Intuitively, one might expect that stable colloids generated from wasteform degradation that have radionuclides incorporated into their structure (as opposed to asorption association) might pose the biggest risk; Experiments have informed generic modeling approach, including GDSA; Experiments have provided insights into how experimental designs can be tailored and improved to address site-specific and scenario-specific issues; Different host rocks, EBS vs. natural system, and DPC concept can all, in principle, be addressed via different parameterizations of the generic model, with the understanding that parameterizations must be developed through site- and scenario-specific experimental testing

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Sensitivity of transpiration to subsurface properties: Exploration with a 1-D model

The amount of moisture transpired by vegetation is critically tied to the moisture supply accessible to the root zone. In a Mediterranean climate, integrated evapotranspiration (ET) is typically greater in the dry summer when there is an uninterrupted period of high insolation. We present a 1-D model to explore the subsurface factors that may sustain ET through the dry season. The model includes a stochastic parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, root water uptake efficiency, and hydraulic redistribution by plant roots. Model experiments vary the precipitation, the magnitude and seasonality of ET demand, as well as rooting profiles and rooting depths of the vegetation. The results show that the amount of subsurface moisture remaining at the end of the wet winter is determined by the competition among abundant precipitation input, fast infiltration, and winter ET demand. The weathered bedrock retains math formula of the winter rain and provides a substantial moisture reservoir that may sustain ET of deep-rooted (>8 m) trees through the dry season. A small negative feedback exists in the root zone, where the depletion of moisture by ET decreases hydraulic conductivity and enhances the retention of moisture. Hence, hydraulic redistribution by plant roots is impactful in a dry season, or with a less conductive subsurface. Suggestions for implementing the model in the CESM are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Representation of atmosphere-induced heterogeneity in land–atmosphere interactions in E3SM–MMFv2

In the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), where parameterizations of convection and turbulence are replaced by a 2-D cloud-resolving model (CRM), there are multiple options to represent land–atmosphere interactions. Here, we propose three different coupling strategies, namely the (1) coupling of a single land surface model to the global grid (MMF), (2) coupling a single land copy directly to the embedded CRM (SFLX2CRM), and (3) coupling a single copy of land model to each column of the CRM grid (MAML). In the MAML (Multi-Atmosphere Multi-Land) framework, a land model is coupled to CRM at the CRM-grid scale by coupling an individual copy of a land model to each CRM grid. Therefore, we can represent intra-CRM heterogeneity in the land–atmosphere interaction processes. There are 5-year global simulations run using these three coupling strategies, and we find some regional differences but overall small changes with respect to whether a land model is coupled to CRM or a global atmosphere. In MAML, the spatial heterogeneity within CRM induces stronger turbulence, which leads to the changes in soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and precipitation. However, the differences in the MAML from the other two cases are rather weak, suggesting that the impact of using MAML does not justify the increase in cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

QuadTune version 1: a regional tuner for global atmospheric models

When a new, better-formulated physical parameterization is introduced into a global atmospheric model, aspects of the global model solutions are sometimes degraded. Then, in order to use the new global model to address science questions, there is an incentive to restore its accuracy. Oftentimes this restoration is achieved by tuning of model parameter values. Unfortunately, the retuning process is expensive because characterizing the parameter dependence requires numerous time-consuming global simulations. To reduce the cost of tuning, this manuscript introduces a “poor man's” model tuner, “QuadTune”. QuadTune carves the globe into regions and approximates the model parameter dependence through the use of an uncorrelated quadratic emulator (i.e., response surface). The simplicity of the emulator reduces the required number of global model simulations and aids explainability of tuner behavior. Tuning removes parametric error but leaves behind model structural error. Structural error manifests itself as regional residual biases, such as stubborn biases and tuning trade-offs. To visualize these residual biases, QuadTune's software includes a set of diagnostic plots. This paper illustrates the use of the plots for characterizing residual biases with an example tuning problem.

Environmental sciences↗

Evaluation of cloud-resolving model simulations of midlatitude cirrus with ARM and A-train observations

Cirrus clouds are ubiquitous in the upper troposphere and still constitute one of the largest uncertainties in climate predictions. Our paper evaluates cloud-resolving model (CRM) and cloud system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations of a midlatitude cirrus case with comprehensive observations collected under the auspices of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program and with spaceborne observations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration A-train satellites. The CRM simulations are driven with periodic boundary conditions and ARM forcing data, whereas the CSRM simulations are driven by the ERA-Interim product. Vertical profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speeds are reasonably well simulated by the CSRM and CRM, but there are remaining biases in the temperature, wind speeds, and relative humidity, which can be mitigated through nudging the model simulations toward the observed radiosonde profiles. Simulated vertical velocities are underestimated in all simulations except in the CRM simulations with grid spacings of 500 m or finer, which suggests that turbulent vertical air motions in cirrus clouds need to be parameterized in general circulation models and in CSRM simulations with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 1 km. The simulated ice water content and ice number concentrations agree with the observations in the CSRM but are underestimated in the CRM simulations. The underestimation of ice number concentrations is consistent with the overestimation of radar reflectivity in the CRM simulations and suggests that the model produces too many large ice particles especially toward the cloud base. Simulated cloud profiles are rather insensitive to perturbations in the initial conditions or the dimensionality of the model domain, but the treatment of the forcing data has a considerable effect on the outcome of the model simulations. Despite considerable progress in observations and microphysical parameterizations, simulating the microphysical, macrophysical, and radiative properties of cirrus remains challenging. Comparing model simulations with observations from multiple instruments and observational platforms is important for revealing model deficiencies and for providing rigorous benchmarks. But, there still is considerable need for reducing observational uncertainties and providing better observations especially for relative humidity and for the size distribution and chemical composition of aerosols in the upper troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A consistent prescription of stratospheric aerosol for both radiation and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Here we describe an updated parameterization for prescribing stratospheric aerosol in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The need for a new parameterization is motivated by the poor response of the CESM1 (formerly referred to as the Community Climate System Model, version 4, CCSM4) simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to colossal volcanic perturbations to the stratospheric aerosol layer (such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption or the 1883 Krakatau eruption) in comparison to observations. In particular, the scheme used in the CMIP5 simulations by CESM1 simulated a global mean surface temperature decrease that was inconsistent with the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, and the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office (HADCRUT4). The new parameterization takes advantage of recent improvements in historical stratospheric aerosol databases to allow for variations in both the mass loading and size of the prescribed aerosol. An ensemble of simulations utilizing the old and new schemes shows CESM1's improved response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. Most significantly, the new scheme more accurately simulates the temperature response of the stratosphere due to local aerosol heating. Here, results also indicate that the new scheme decreases the global mean temperature response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption by half of the observed temperature change, and modelled climate variability precludes statements as to the significance of this change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗