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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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929 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Disruption of histone acetylation homeostasis reveals multilayered chromatin regulation for transcriptional resiliency

Background Epigenetic modifications, nucleosome occupancy, and three-dimensional chromatin architecture collectively create a multi-layered, highly interactive regulatory system for controlling genomic functionality. Dysregulation of epigenetic processes leads to a plethora of abnormalities including disease states. Therapies focused on epigenetic modulation can alter gene expression to correct dysfunction, though the perpetuation of these states and the relationships among chromatin regulatory layers is not well understood. Results Here, we investigated global and local chromatin structural and functional responses after acute histone deacetylase inhibitor treatment (suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid) in lung cancer cells across time. Treatment substantially increased global histone acetylation resulting in a pervasive but not distinctive signature. The spread of acetylation did not significantly impact global chromatin accessibility, and nucleosome remodeling largely occurred at finer scales in functionally relevant genomic regions. Indeed, both H 3 K 4 trimethylation, a mark of active transcription, and gene expression changes were altered in a controlled locus-specific manner, suggesting aberrant acetylation indirectly leads to balanced and bidirectional gene expression profiles from tighter regulation of other chromatin features. HDACi treatment induced (13%) genomic rearrangement in chromatin compartmentalization and moderate weakening of topologically associating domains. Conclusions Continuous wavelet analysis of these features demonstrates that scale-dependent, locus-specific factors influence the relationship between chromatin architecture and functional output, suggesting that regulation of transcription and nucleosome remodeling is not entirely (nor linearly) dependent upon large scale compartment exchange. Structural and functional responses are most pronounced early after treatment with partial persistence of differential local chromatin features and expression later in time; this highlights the plasticity of chromatin regulation, which may have implications for the efficacy of epigenetic treatments. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-layered regulation of transcription: in resilient systems, disruption of one chromatin feature does not distort the regulation of other features in supporting a transcriptional program that allows for survival.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) High Heat Flux Bellows for Component Alignment in High Microwave Environment

The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) device is a linear plasma device developed to perform plasma material interaction experiments under the conditions prototypic of a fusion reactor divertor. MPEX has multiple systems that must be precisely aligned to the plasma axis, including an electron cyclotron heating system that emits up to 400 kW of microwave power into the vacuum vessel. Five distinct systems require precise alignment on the MPEX device, thus requiring four bellows, all of which are adjacent to the plasma at a relatively high heat flux of approximately 47 kW/m2 and microwave power regions. The MPEX high heat flux bellows (HHFB) is designed to deliver 6 degrees of freedom positioning. The HHFB includes titanium–zirconium–molybdenum (TZM) inserts that are brazed into a Glidcop AL-15 body using a high-temperature braze alloy, thus blocking direct line of sight to an edge-welded bellows from the plasma and microwave screen to block microwaves from the bellows. Further, a custom ConFlat knife edge is machined into the Glidcop AL-15, so the vacuum flanges do not need a braze or weld joint on the vacuum interface. Fingerstock or copper mesh is used to restrict microwave power from entering the interstitial space between the water-cooled Glidcop AL-15 body and edge-welded bellows. Glidcop AL-15 was selected as the material of choice for the water-cooled body because it can maintain mechanical integrity at elevated temperatures, and it also allows for a high-temperature braze. TZM was selected for its machinability and compatibility with vacuum and plasma requirements. A test article is also being considered for a similarly shaped component, the MPEX limiter, that will demonstrate the integrity of the braze joint under high thermal load. Results from this testing will be extrapolated to deduce the lifetime and integrity of the HHFB design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lorentz Symmetry Group, Retardation, Intergalactic Mass Depletion and Mechanisms Leading to Galactic Rotation Curves

The general theory of relativity (GR) is symmetric under smooth coordinate transformations, also known as diffeomorphisms. The general coordinate transformation group has a linear subgroup denoted as the Lorentz group of symmetry, which is also maintained in the weak field approximation to GR. The dominant operator in the weak field equation of GR is thus the d’Alembert (wave) operator, which has a retarded potential solution. Galaxies are huge physical systems with dimensions of many tens of thousands of light years. Thus, any change at the galactic center will be noticed at the rim only tens of thousands of years later. Those retardation effects are neglected in the present day galactic modelling used to calculate rotational velocities of matter in the rims of the galaxy and surrounding gas. The significant differences between the predictions of Newtonian instantaneous action at a distance and observed velocities are usually explained by either assuming dark matter or by modifying the laws of gravity (MOND). In this paper, we will show that, by taking general relativity seriously without neglecting retardation effects, one can explain the radial velocities of galactic matter in the M33 galaxy without postulating dark matter. It should be stressed that the current approach does not require that velocities v are high; in fact, the vast majority of galactic bodies (stars, gas) are substantially subluminal—in other words, the ratio of $\frac{v}{c} \ll 1$. Typical velocities in galaxies are 100 km/s, which makes this ratio 0.001 or smaller. However, one should consider the fact that every gravitational system, even if it is made of subluminal bodies, has a retardation distance, beyond which the retardation effect cannot be neglected. Every natural system, such as stars and galaxies and even galactic clusters, exchanges mass with its environment, for example, the sun loses mass through solar wind and galaxies accrete gas from the intergalactic medium. This means that all natural gravitational systems have a finite retardation distance. The question is thus quantitative: how large is the retardation distance? For the M33 galaxy, the velocity curve indicates that the retardation effects cannot be neglected beyond a certain distance, which was calculated to be roughly 14,000 light years; similar analysis for other galaxies of different types has shown similar results. We demonstrate, using a detailed model, that this does not require a high velocity of gas or stars in or out of the galaxy and is perfectly consistent with the current observational knowledge of galactic and extra galactic material content and dynamics

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic multi-machine analysis of the exhaust time-dependent behavior in tokamaks

The understanding of the time-scales and associated transient behavior of fusion exhaust plasmas plays a crucial role in its dynamic modeling and its control. This work presents an overview of experimental investigations of the exhaust dynamics in TCV, MAST-U, ASDEX-Upgrade, WEST, DIII-D, and JET. From the presented experiments, a clear picture arises on properties of the exhaust dynamics across machines. Particularly, we observe that the scrape-off layer equilibrates on fast time-scales ($>$ 70 Hz) and that exhaust dynamics measured in response to gas valve modulations mostly behave smoothly and linearly, with similarities across devices, across scenarios (H-mode, L-mode), injected species, and injection locations. The measurements presented have formed the basis for systematic exhaust control on the considered devices. We now present this database for the essential validation of dynamic exhaust models for reactor design and control.

control↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biofouling and Corrosion Study for a Novel Linear Guided Wave Energy Converter (Post Access Report)

The overall objective of this project was to examine the reliability and performance of antibiofouling coatings used for a wave energy converter (WEC) developed by E-Wave Technologies. The particular coatings were selected for their low toxicity and potential compatibility with aquaculture. The aim of this work was to 1) test coating solutions to prevent biofouling growth and saltwater corrosion on the static (paddle and attachment frame surface) components of the WEC that are submerged, 2) determine adhesion of the coatings to system components, and 3) assess the ease and effectiveness of biofouling cleaning to insure long term performance of the system. An analysis of commercial coatings was performed using methods to examine the prevention of biofouling and coating adhesion properties on two key materials of the WEC, which were 316L low carbon marine grade stainless steel (SS) and Ultra High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (PE). Three marine antifouling paints were selected based on their unique properties to test how different paint styles perform on different materials. The selected paints were ePaint Ecominder self-polishing paint with Zinc Omadine for slime control, Pettit ECO HRT Copper-Free ablative antifouling with Econea biocide, and Intersleek 1100SR foul release. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) prepared PE and SS substrates coated with the three paints and compared the performance against uncoated substrates when submerged in raw seawater for 3-, 6-, and 9-month (m) time periods. Results in adhesion testing indicated that Pettit and ePaint materials clearly bonded strongly to SS, but did not bond comparably well to PE. It was noted during adhesion testing that the Intersleek surfaces were especially difficult to test as the paint highly resists bonding to the epoxy adhesives used with the adherence testing platform. The wear rate of the coatings was not measured under this study; however, based on adhesion testing, coatings in the sliding regions of the Ewave device are expected to wear rapidly. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) evaluated the adhesion of three different paints to PE and SS substrates which were exposed to a marine environment for time intervals of 0, 3, 6, and 9 months. From qualitative visual analysis of the 3 in2 coupons when pulled from the tank, the 3 in2 coupons generally only appeared to have biofouling consisting of filamentous algae or diatoms, which all have relatively low mass and can be easily wiped from the surface of coupons. Qualitative visual analysis indicated that ECO HRT and Unpainted were consistently worse than Intersleek and Ecominder at all time points. Results provide insight to aid with down-selection of commercial coatings under static conditions to support reliability of the WEC and potential maintenance schedules. This investigation was conducted using small coupon samples suspended in seawater and the development of testing rigs for dynamic component level testing is needed for future work. In addition, the potential toxicity of these commercial coatings on aquaculture has not been determined by this study. One recommendation is to conduct toxicity investigations at the Environmental Toxicity Laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

INTEGRATE - Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements

The INTEGRATE (Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements) project is developing a new inverse-design capability for the aerodynamic design of wind turbine rotors using invertible neural networks. This AI-based design technology can capture complex non-linear aerodynamic effects while being 100 times faster than design approaches based on computational fluid dynamics. This project enables innovation in wind turbine design by accelerating time to market through higher-accuracy early design iterations to reduce the levelized cost of energy. INVERTIBLE NEURAL NETWORKS Researchers are leveraging a specialized invertible neural network (INN) architecture along with the novel dimension-reduction methods and airfoil/blade shape representations developed by collaborators at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) learns complex relationships between airfoil or blade shapes and their associated aerodynamic and structural properties. This INN architecture will accelerate designs by providing a cost-effective alternative to current industrial aerodynamic design processes, including: - Blade element momentum (BEM) theory models: limited effectiveness for design of offshore rotors with large, flexible blades where nonlinear aerodynamic effects dominate - Direct design using computational fluid dynamics (CFD): cost-prohibitive - Inverse-design models based on deep neural networks (DNNs): attractive alternative to CFD for 2D design problems, but quickly overwhelmed by the increased number of design variables in 3D problems AUTOMATED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS FOR TRAINING DATA GENERATION - MERCURY FRAMEWORK The INN is trained on data obtained using the University of Marylands (UMD) Mercury Framework, which has with robust automated mesh generation capabilities and advanced turbulence and transition models validated for wind energy applications. Mercury is a multi-mesh paradigm, heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework. The framework incorporates three flow solvers at UMD, 1) OverTURNS, a structured solver on CPUs, 2) HAMSTR, a line based unstructured solver on CPUs, and 3) GARFIELD, a structured solver on GPUs. The framework is based on Python, that is often used to wrap C or Fortran codes for interoperability with other solvers. Communication between multiple solvers is accomplished with a Topology Independent Overset Grid Assembler (TIOGA). NOVEL AIRFOIL SHAPE REPRESENTATIONS USING GRASSMAN SPACES We developed a novel representation of shapes which decouples affine-style deformations from a rich set of data-driven deformations over a submanifold of the Grassmannian. The Grassmannian representation as an analytic generative model, informed by a database of physically relevant airfoils, offers (i) a rich set of novel 2D airfoil deformations not previously captured in the data , (ii) improved low-dimensional parameter domain for inferential statistics informing design/manufacturing, and (iii) consistent 3D blade representation and perturbation over a sequence of nominal shapes. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DEMONSTRATION - COUPLING WITH NREL WISDEM Researchers have integrated the inverse-design tool for 2D airfoils (INN-Airfoil) into WISDEM (Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model), a multidisciplinary design and optimization framework for assessing the cost of energy, as part of tech-transfer demonstration. The integration of INN-Airfoil into WISDEM allows for the design of airfoils along with the blades that meet the dynamic design constraints on cost of energy, annual energy production, and the capital costs. Through preliminary studies, researchers have shown that the coupled INN-Airfoil + WISDEM approach reduces the cost of energy by around 1% compared to the conventional design approach. This page will serve as a place to easily access all the publications from this work and the repositories for the software developed and released through this pr...

aerodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Double-null power-sharing dynamics in MAST-U

Maintaining an effective double-null (DN) configuration is expected to be challenging in reactor-scale tokamak devices. As divertor power-sharing is closely linked to the magnetic topology, even minor variations can lead to fast power-sharing fluctuations which exacerbate the already daunting exhaust challenge. While the static aspects of DN power-sharing have been extensively studied across various devices, this paper presents the first detailed investigation of its dynamic behaviour. We employ dedicated H-mode experiments in MAST-U, in Super-X divertor configuration, featuring perturbation frequencies up to 200 Hz. Our results clearly show no significant dynamic damping of the power-sharing within this frequency range: the divertor responds equally to both fast and slow perturbations. Moreover, the dynamic response also aligns with quasi-static results from slow ramps, implying that static power-sharing models remain valid even for fast fluctuations. Occasionally, some deviations from the otherwise mainly linear behaviour are observed, alongside notable scatter and asymmetries between upwards and downwards trajectories. These observations are likely linked to changes in core conditions, though the underlying mechanisms remain unclear and require further study.

divertor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of High-efficiency and Cost-effective Forged Ingot Niobium Technology for Science Frontiers and Accelerator Applications

Development of Forged Ingot Niobium Technology: Worlds science frontier programs and SRF accelerator applications demand high performance and cost-effective SRF accelerator technology [1-8]. Fine-grain (FG) and Large-grain (LG) ingot niobium technologies have been very well developed and implemented in all the present-day accelerator projects. However, forged ingot niobium technology which is the focus of this development proposal will be much more cost-effective and expected to have several technical advantages. FG niobium sheet production is very complex involving more than ten processing steps making them prone to contamination. As a result, they are very expensive to produce and require stringent QA procedure to be ready for SRF cavity production. The accelerating cavity process steps are also numerous and require strict procedures in order to achieve high accelerating gradients and quality factors needed for science frontier programs. LG niobium disc production, directly sliced from the ingot, is relatively simple and straight forward to keep surface cleanness. The disc production cost is significantly low compared to FG niobium sheet production. However, there are (some) draw backs due to non-homogeneity of the grain boundary distribution, resulting in non-uniform mechanical properties and complex cavity fabrication, although the LG cavities achieve the expected high-gradient performance goals with lower cost. Medium-grain (MG) niobium disk production may be realized with a new approach/process, the disc directly sliced from the forged ingot, involves a simpler process steps contributing major production cost reduction [9]. These discs are expected to be superior as they tend to be homogenous with uniform sub millimeter grains and mechanical properties. We are eagerly looking forward to developing the forged ingot niobium SRF accelerator technology for the benefit of the world-wide science frontier programs, green energy subcritical nuclear energy systems and a wide variety of industrial applications including the production of radio isotopes and nuclear transmutation applications. Measurement of thermal characteristics of the forged ingot niobium: Measurement of the thermal diffusivity, D, of superconducting MG niobium is important to be understood in comparison with FG sheet and LG disc, as well as that of advanced composite material of Nb3Sn film sputtered on forged ingot Nb, which will be determined using transient pump-probe thermo-modulation [10,11]. Transient thermo-modulation is based on using an ultrafast laser pulse to heat the superconducting materials by a few K, then a synchronized laser pulse probes the reflectance of the heated material. For thin films on a substrate (e.g, 100-nm Nb3Sn on Nb), it takes <100 ps for the heat to reach the substrate by diffusion. Therefore, an ultrafast method is needed to probe D of the studied material. D will be measured from room temperature to liquid helium temperatures. Fundamental Research: The increase of rf loss in SRF cavities is related to trapping of residual magnetic field during the cavity cool-down. The study suggested that the micro structure plays the role in flux trapping sensitivity. The research includes the flux trapping and expulsion study as forged ingot niobium goes through several mechanical deformations, crystallization leading to the optimal SRF cavity performance. Furthermore, the cavity made from FG, MG, and LG sheet/disc will be compared to understand the optimal re-crystallization temperature that cavity needed to be heat treated which minimize the flux trapping and increase SRF cavity performance. References: 1. S. Belomestnykh, Overview of recent SRF developments for ERLs, presented at the SRF 2015, Whistler, BC, Canada (2015). 2. A. Yamamoto, M. Yamanaka and G. Myneni, Ingot Nb based SRF Technology for the International Linear Collider, in Science and Technology of Ingot Niobium for Superconducting Radio Frequency Applications, AIP Conf. Proc. 1687, 030005-1 ? 03005-6, 2015 3. Report of the Workshop on Energy and Environmental Applications of Accelerators, DOE Workshop Report. https://science.osti.gov/-/media/hep/pdf/Reports/2020/CASM_WorkshopReport.pdf? la=en&hash=AEB0B318ED0436B1C5FF4EE0FDD6DEB84C2F15B2 4. G. Ciovati, et al., Design of a cw, low-energy, high-power superconducting linac for environmental applications, Phys. Rev. Accel. Beams 21, 091601 (2018). 5. P. Dhakal, et al., Effect of high temperature heat treatments on the quality factor of a large-grain superconducting radio-frequency niobium cavity, Phys. Rev. ST Accel. Beams 16, 042001 (2013). 6. P. Kneisel et al., Review of ingot niobium as a material for superconducting radio frequency accelerating cavities, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research A 774, 133 (2015). 7. G. Ciovati, P. Dhakal, and G. R, Myneni, Superconducting radio-frequency cavities made from medium and low-purity niobium ingots, Supercond. Sci. Technol. 29, 064002 (2016). 8. M. Drury et al., commissioning of the prototype C75 cavities in a CEBAF cryomodule, in Proc. of IPAC 2018, Vancouver, BC, Canada (2018) 9. Feasibility of forged-ingot niobium disc and SRF cavity fabrication technology recently demonstrated in cooperation of ATI, BSCE, and KEK (2020). 10. Hani E. Elsayed-Ali, ?Measurements of heat transport in thin films by ultrafast laser-based techniques,? 3rd International Conference on Thermal Issues in Emerging Technologies Theory and Applications, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 347 ? 350 (2010). DOI: 10.1109/ThETA17616.2010 11. W. M. G. Ibrahim, H. E. Elsayed-Ali, M. Schinn, and C. A. Bonner, Jr., ?Ultrafast investigation of electron dynamics in multilayer metals,? Int. J. Heat and Mass Transfer, 47(10?11), 2261?2268 (2004).

Myneni, G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗