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DOE OSTI2012

P50/P90 Analysis for Solar Energy Systems Using the System Advisor Model: Preprint

To secure competitive financing for a solar energy generation project, the economic risk associated with interannual solar resource variability must be quantified. One way to quantify this risk is to calculate exceedance probabilities representing the amount of energy expected to be produced by a plant. Many years of solar radiation and metereological data are required to determine these values,often called P50 or P90 values for the level of certainty they represent. This paper describes the two methods implemented in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM) to calculate P50 and P90 exceedance probabilities for solar energy projects. The methodology and supporting data sets are applicable to photovoltaic, solar water heating, and concentrating solar power(CSP) systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Bayesian methods can improve R -matrix analyses of data: The example of the d t reaction

The 3 H(d, n) 4 He reaction is of significant interest in nuclear astrophysics and nuclear applications. It is an important, early step in big-bang nucleosynthesis and a key process in nuclear fusion reactors. We use one- and two-level R-matrix approximations to analyze data on the cross section for this reaction at center-of-mass energies below 215 keV. We critically examine the data sets using a Bayesian statistical model that allows for both common-mode and additional point-to-point un- certainties. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to evaluate this R-matrix-plus-statistical model and find two-level R-matrix results that are stable with respect to variations in the channel radii. The S factor at 40 keV evaluates to 25.36(19) MeV b (68% credibility interval). We discuss our Bayesian analysis in detail and provide guidance for future applications of Bayesian methods to R-matrix analyses. We also discuss possible paths to further reduction of the S-factor uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A sharp interface model for deterministic simulation of dendrite growth

A high order level set model is developed for deterministic simulation of dendritic growth in unstable solidifying systems. The model captures motion of the front implicitly on a structured finite difference grid, enables calculation of its geometric properties and also applies boundary conditions on the immersed interface. Interfacial capillary effect is incorporated in the model through the Gibbs-Thomson condition. Canonical problems for evaluating grid convergence of the numerical method and validation tests for stability of a growing nucleus in the presence of isotropic surface tension are presented. The growth morphology of solidifying nuclei in undercooled metallic melts is quantitatively analyzed. Effects of crystal anisotropy and melt undercooling on the front geometry, propagation speed and formation of branched dendritic structures are examined. In conclusion, the complex morphological changes, such as remelting of secondary perturbations under specific conditions of undercooling, are also captured during the quantitative analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Generality of the GUGA MRCI Approach in COLUMBUS for Treating Complex Quantum Chemistry

The core part of the program system COLUMBUS allows highly efficient calculations using variational multireference (MR) methods in the framework of configuration interaction with single and double excitations (MR-CISD) and averaged quadratic coupled-cluster calculations (MR-AQCC), based on uncontracted sets of configurations and the graphical unitary group approach (GUGA). The availability of analytic MR-CISD and MR-AQCC energy gradients and analytic nonadiabatic couplings for MR-CISD enables exciting applications including, e.g., investigations of π-conjugated biradicaloid compounds, calculations of multitudes of excited states, development of diabatization procedures, and furnishing the electronic structure information for on-the-fly surface nonadiabatic dynamics. With fully variational uncontracted spin-orbit MRCI, COLUMBUS provides a unique possibility of performing high-level calculations on compounds containing heavy atoms up to lanthanides and actinides. Crucial for carrying out all of these calculations effectively is the availability of an efficient parallel code for the CI step. Configuration spaces of several billion in size now can be treated quite routinely on standard parallel computer clusters. Emerging developments in COLUMBUS, including the all configuration mean energy multiconfiguration self-consistent field method and the graphically contracted function method, promise to allow practically unlimited configuration space dimensions. Spin density based on the GUGA approach, analytic spin-orbit energy gradients, possibilities for local electron correlation MR calculations, development of general interfaces for nonadiabatic dynamics, and MRCI linear vibronic coupling models conclude this overview.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1984

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity Analysis of Occupant Preferences on Energy Usage in Residential Buildings: Preprint

Residential buildings, accounting for 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States, are suitable for demand-side management (DSM) programs to support effective and economical operation of the power system. A home energy management system (HEMS) enables residential buildings to participate in such programs. It is important to account for occupant preferences in HEMS to ensure occupant satisfaction while participating in DSM programs. For example, people who prefer a higher thermal comfort level are likely to consume more energy. In this study, we used foresee™, a HEMS developed by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), to perform a sensitivity analysis of occupant preferences with the following objectives: minimize utility cost, minimize carbon footprint, and maximize thermal comfort. To incorporate the preferences into the HEMS, the SMARTER method was used to derive a set of weighting factors for each objective. We performed week-long building energy simulations using a model of a home in Fort Collins, Colorado, where there is mandatory time-of-use electricity rate structure. The foreseeTM HEMS was used to control the home with six different sets of occupant preferences. The study shows that occupant preferences can have a significant impact and is important to consider when modeling residential buildings. Results show that the HEMS could achieve energy reduction ranging from 3% to 21%, cost savings ranging from 5% to 24%, and carbon emission reduction ranging from 3% to 21%, while maintaining a low thermal discomfort level ranging from 0.78 K-hour to 6.47 K-hour in a one-week period during winter. These outcomes quantify the impact of varying occupant preferences and will be useful for controlling the electrical grid and developing HEMS solutions.

carbon footprint↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantum Chemical Approach for Calculating Stability Constants of Mercury Complexes

Stability constants are central to the multi-scale modeling of the thermodynamic speciation, cycling, and transport of mercury (Hg) and other contaminants in aquatic environments. However, for Hg, experimental values for many relevant complexes are not available, and for others can span ranges in excess of 10 log units. The missing data and large uncertainties mean there are significant knowledge gaps in predictions of thermodynamic speciation. As an alternative to experimental measurements, thermodynamic quantities can be calculated with quantum chemical methods. Among these, density functional theory (DFT) with a polarizable continuum solvent combines accuracy with practicability. In this paper, we present an accurate and quick approach in which we use DFT with continuum solvation to calculate stability constants of Hg complexes with inorganic and low molecular-weight organic ligands in aqueous solution. Specifically, we use the M06/[SDD]6-31+G(d,p) level of theory in combination with a modified version of the SMD solvent model in which the solute radii are re-optimized with a scaled solvent-accessible surface (sSAS) approach. For the set of 37 Hg complexes used for optimization, which contain environmentally relevant functional groups and have reliable experimental stability constants, we obtain a mean unsigned error of 1.4 log units. Testing the method on an independent set of 12 Hg complexes reproduces the experimental stability constants to a mean unsigned error of 1.6 log units. Finally, this approach is a substantial step toward generally applicable rapid stability constant derivation for a wide range of Hg complexes, including those present in dissolved organic matter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Halotyrosine Antibody that Detects Increased Protein Modifications in Asthma Patients

Background-Airway inflammation plays an important pathophysiological role in asthma. Eosinophils produce hypobromite and bromotyrosine while neutrophils produce hypochlorite and chlorotyrosine. Objective-To evaluate halotyrosine modifications of individual airway proteins as a marker of inflammation in asthma using an antibody-based assay. Methods-We developed a novel monoclonal antibody (BTK-94C) that binds halogenated tyrosine residues, and used this antibody in a custom enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) microarray platform to examine halotyrosine levels in 23 proteins in three independent sets of sputum samples (52 samples total). Results-In 15 subjects with either no asthma, or with asthma characterized by high or low sputum eosinophil counts, we found associations between increased halotyrosine levels of at least three proteins and severity of airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR). Treatment with mepolizumab in 17 patients with sputum eosinophilia markedly reduced the sputum eosinophilia and significantly reduced halotyrosine levels in one sputum protein. Further analysis of 10 subjects with neutrophilic asthma and 10 health controls demonstrated a broad increase in halotyrosine in the patients with airway neutrophilia. Conclusions-Significantly higher levels of halotyrosine are associated with asthma in the asthma phenotypes we examined. The halotyrosine levels correlated with indirect AHR in the form of exercise-induced bronchoconstriction. Clinical Implication-An antibody-based assay for tyrosine halogenation in specific proteins may prove useful for assessing airway inflammation in asthma. Capsule Summary-An antibody to measure protein monobrominated tyrosine and other halotyrosine modifications was developed and used to evaluate halogenation in specific proteins in the airways for the first time. Associations were found between levels of halotyrosine and exercise-induced bronchoconstriction, and eosinophil and neutrophil inflammation in sputum from asthma patients. The ELISA developed here can be easily translated into a clinical test.

Asthma, sputum, halotyrosine, airway hyperresponsi↗

DOE OSTI2015

Depth-resolved registration of transesophageal echo to x-ray fluoroscopy using an inverse geometry fluoroscopy system

Purpose: Image registration between standard x-ray fluoroscopy and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) has recently been proposed. Scanning-beam digital x-ray (SBDX) is an inverse geometry fluoroscopy system designed for cardiac procedures. This study presents a method for 3D registration of SBDX and TEE images based on the tomosynthesis and 3D tracking capabilities of SBDX. Methods: The registration algorithm utilizes the stack of tomosynthetic planes produced by the SBDX system to estimate the physical 3D coordinates of salient key-points on the TEE probe. The key-points are used to arrive at an initial estimate of the probe pose, which is then refined using a 2D/3D registration method adapted for inverse geometry fluoroscopy. A phantom study was conducted to evaluate probe pose estimation accuracy relative to the ground truth, as defined by a set of coregistered fiducial markers. This experiment was conducted with varying probe poses and levels of signal difference-to-noise ratio (SDNR). Additional phantom and in vivo studies were performed to evaluate the correspondence of catheter tip positions in TEE and x-ray images following registration of the two modalities. Results: Target registration error (TRE) was used to characterize both pose estimation and registration accuracy. In the study of pose estimation accuracy, successful pose estimates (3D TRE < 5.0 mm) were obtained in 97% of cases when the SDNR was 5.9 or higher in seven out of eight poses. Under these conditions, 3D TRE was 2.32 ± 1.88 mm, and 2D (projection) TRE was 1.61 ± 1.36 mm. Probe localization error along the source-detector axis was 0.87 ± 1.31 mm. For the in vivo experiments, mean 3D TRE ranged from 2.6 to 4.6 mm and mean 2D TRE ranged from 1.1 to 1.6 mm. Anatomy extracted from the echo images appeared well aligned when projected onto the SBDX images. Conclusions: Full 6 DOF image registration between SBDX and TEE is feasible and accurate to within 5 mm. Future studies will focus on real-time implementation and application-specific analysis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Digital Application Specific Integrated Circuit Design

Single radiation effects can be transient and static. The charge collected from radiation has a prompt (drift) and a slow (diffusion) component. This current spike causes disparate results: SEU, SET, SEB, MBU, and more. A system level SEE mitigation technique, used to overcome, is the triple module redundancy (TMR). TMR for system Verilog (TMR4SV), written in Python, is the first step towards design IP triplication. It allows various triplication methods for flip flops, clocks, and logic.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Protein Conformational States—A First Principles Bayesian Method

Automated identification of protein conformational states from simulation of an ensemble of structures is a hard problem because it requires teaching a computer to recognize shapes. We adapt the naïve Bayes classifier from the machine learning community for use on atom-to-atom pairwise contacts. The result is an unsupervised learning algorithm that samples a ‘distribution’ over potential classification schemes. We apply the classifier to a series of test structures and one real protein, showing that it identifies the conformational transition with >95% accuracy in most cases. A nontrivial feature of our adaptation is a new connection to information entropy that allows us to vary the level of structural detail without spoiling the categorization. This is confirmed by comparing results as the number of atoms and time-samples are varied over 1.5 orders of magnitude. Further, the method’s derivation from Bayesian analysis on the set of inter-atomic contacts makes it easy to understand and extend to more complex cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2011

Marker-Based Hierarchical Segmentation and Classification Approach for Hyperspectral Imagery

The Hierarchical SEGmentation (HSEG) algorithm, which is a combination of hierarchical step-wise optimization and spectral clustering, has given good performances for hyperspectral image analysis. This technique produces at its output a hierarchical set of image segmentations. The automated selection of a single segmentation level is often necessary. We propose and investigate the use of automatically selected markers for this purpose. In this paper, a novel Marker-based HSEG (M-HSEG) method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. First, pixelwise classification is performed and the most reliably classified pixels are selected as markers, with the corresponding class labels. Then, a novel constrained marker-based HSEG algorithm is applied, resulting in a spectral-spatial classification map. The experimental results show that the proposed approach yields accurate segmentation and classification maps, and thus is attractive for hyperspectral image analysis.

Tarabalka, Yuliya↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Marker-Based Approach for the Automated Selection of a Single Segmentation from a Hierarchical Set of Image Segmentations

The Hierarchical SEGmentation (HSEG) algorithm, which combines region object finding with region object clustering, has given good performances for multi- and hyperspectral image analysis. This technique produces at its output a hierarchical set of image segmentations. The automated selection of a single segmentation level is often necessary. We propose and investigate the use of automatically selected markers for this purpose. In this paper, a novel Marker-based HSEG (M-HSEG) method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. Two classification-based approaches for automatic marker selection are adapted and compared for this purpose. Then, a novel constrained marker-based HSEG algorithm is applied, resulting in a spectral-spatial classification map. Three different implementations of the M-HSEG method are proposed and their performances in terms of classification accuracies are compared. The experimental results, presented for three hyperspectral airborne images, demonstrate that the proposed approach yields accurate segmentation and classification maps, and thus is attractive for remote sensing image analysis.

Tarabalka, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Modified Light Use Efficiency Model for Assessment of Carbon Sequestration in Grasslands of Kazakhstan: Combining Ground Biomass Data and Remote-sensing

A modified light use efficiency (LUE) model was tested in the grasslands of central Kazakhstan in terms of its ability to characterize spatial patterns and interannual dynamics of net primary production (NPP) at a regional scale. In this model, the LUE of the grassland biome (εn) was simulated from ground-based NPP measurements, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and meteorological observations using a new empirical approach. Using coarse-resolution satellite data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), monthly NPP was calculated from 1998 to 2008 over a large grassland region in Kazakhstan. The modelling results were verified against scaled up plot-level observations of grassland biomass and another available NPP data set derived from a field study in a similar grassland biome. The results indicated the reliability of productivity estimates produced by the model for regional monitoring of grassland NPP. The method for simulation of εn suggested in this study can be used in grassland regions where no carbon flux measurements are accessible.

Kazakhstan↗

DOE OSTI2016

Developing Performance Cost Index Targets for ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Appendix G – Performance Rating Method

Appendix G, the Performance Rating Method in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 has been updated to make two significant changes for the 2016 edition, to be published in October of 2016. First, it allows Appendix G to be used as a third path for compliance with the standard in addition to rating beyond code building performance. This prevents modelers from having to develop separate building models for code compliance and beyond code programs. Using this new version of Appendix G to show compliance with the 2016 edition of the standard, the proposed building design needs to have a performance cost index (PCI) less than targets shown in a new table based on building type and climate zone. The second change is that the baseline design is now fixed at a stable level of performance set approximately equal to the 2004 code. Rather than changing the stringency of the baseline with each subsequent edition of the standard, compliance with new editions will simply require a reduced PCI (a PCI of zero is a net-zero building). Using this approach, buildings of any era can be rated using the same method. The intent is that any building energy code or beyond code program can use this methodology and merely set the appropriate PCI target for their needs. This report discusses the process used to set performance criteria for compliance with ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 and suggests a method for demonstrating compliance with other codes and beyond code programs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Developing Performance Cost Index Targets for ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Appendix G – Performance Rating Method - Rev.1

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Machine learning properties of binary wurtzite superlattices

The burgeoning paradigm of high-throughput computations and materials informatics brings new opportunities in terms of targeted materials design and discovery. The discovery process can be significantly accelerated and streamlined if one can learn effectively from available knowledge and past data to predict materials properties efficiently. Indeed, a very active area in materials science research is to develop machine learning based methods that can deliver automated and cross-validated predictive models using either already available materials data or new data generated in a targeted manner. In the present paper, we show that fast and accurate predictions of a wide range of properties of binary wurtzite superlattices, formed by a diverse set of chemistries, can be made by employing state-of-the-art statistical learning methods trained on quantum mechanical computations in combination with a judiciously chosen numerical representation to encode materials’ similarity. These surrogate learning models then allow for efficient screening of vast chemical spaces by providing instant predictions of the targeted properties. Moreover, the models can be systematically improved in an adaptive manner, incorporate properties computed at different levels of fidelities and are naturally amenable to inverse materials design strategies. Finally, while the learning approach to make predictions for a wide range of properties (including structural, elastic and electronic properties) is demonstrated here for a specific example set containing more than 1200 binary wurtzite superlattices, the adopted framework is equally applicable to other classes of materials as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2010

Effect of Microscopic Damage Events on Static and Ballistic Impact Strength of Triaxial Braid Composites

The reliability of impact simulations for aircraft components made with triaxial-braided carbon-fiber composites is currently limited by inadequate material property data and lack of validated material models for analysis. Methods to characterize the material properties used in the analytical models from a systematically obtained set of test data are also lacking. A macroscopic finite element based analytical model to analyze the impact response of these materials has been developed. The stiffness and strength properties utilized in the material model are obtained from a set of quasi-static in-plane tension, compression and shear coupon level tests. Full-field optical strain measurement techniques are applied in the testing, and the results are used to help in characterizing the model. The unit cell of the braided composite is modeled as a series of shell elements, where each element is modeled as a laminated composite. The braided architecture can thus be approximated within the analytical model. The transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA is utilized to conduct the finite element simulations, and an internal LS-DYNA constitutive model is utilized in the analysis. Methods to obtain the stiffness and strength properties required by the constitutive model from the available test data are developed. Simulations of quasi-static coupon tests and impact tests of a represented braided composite are conducted. Overall, the developed method shows promise, but improvements that are needed in test and analysis methods for better predictive capability are examined.

Littell, Justin D.↗