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DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to an Agent-Based Model of Pantoea

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful simulation technique which describes a complex dynamic system based on its interacting constituent entities. While the flexibility of ABM enables broad application, the complexity of real-world models demands intensive computing resources and computational time; however, a metamodel may be constructed to gain insight at less computational expense. Here, we developed a model in NetLogo to describe the growth of a microbial population consisting of Pantoea . We applied 13 parameters that defined the model and actively changed seven of the parameters to modulate the evolution of the population curve in response to these changes. We efficiently performed more than 3,000 simulations using a Python wrapper, NL4Py . Upon evaluation of the correlation between the active parameters and outputs by random forest regression, we found that the parameters which define the depth of medium and glucose concentration affect the population curves significantly. Subsequently, we constructed a metamodel, a dense neural network, to predict the simulation outputs from the active parameters and found that it achieves high prediction accuracy, reaching an R 2 coefficient of determination value up to 0.92. Our approach of using a combination of ABM with random forest regression and neural network reduces the number of required ABM simulations. The simplified and refined metamodels may provide insights into the complex dynamic system before their transition to more sophisticated models that run on high-performance computing systems. The ultimate goal is to build a bridge between simulation and experiment, allowing model validation by comparing the simulated data to experimental data in microbiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MW-Class SOFC Pilot System Development

The overall objective of this project is to develop a low-cost, efficient, and reliable MWe-class Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) power system towards commercial deployment in natural-gas fueled distributed generation applications. This report details the successful completion of all project objectives. The main goals of the project were to develop the conceptual design of a MWe-class SOFC power system, and to complete a techno-economic analysis (TEA) to determine system costs at low-volume production levels of >100MW per year. The combination of the BoP equipment cost and SOFC stack module factory cost provided the net fabrication cost of the selected 1MW SOFC system configuration. The results of the study showed that the cost target of less than $6000/kW is achievable for a FOAK 1MW SOFC system, exclusive of the first-time engineering cost. Also, the project included an exploratory analysis of the factory cost of next generation stack technology based on the Compact Solid-oxide Architecture (CSA) design at a high annual manufacturing rate of one-GW produced in a giga-factory. The BoP capital cost for one giga-watt power production was estimated using learning-curve analysis based on the historical manufacturing cost data related to similar high temperature Molten Carbonate fuel cell systems built by FuelCell Energy (FCE). The giga-factory manufactured SOFC cost estimate combined with the BoP cost at high production rates led to the estimation of entire system capital cost. Ultimately, a Cost of Electricity (COE) analysis was performed including natural gas fuel prices, installation and O&M costs, and stack replacement cost. The results of the techno-economic analysis were summarized by parametric estimation of COE for 1MW SOFC NOAK (Nth-of-a-Kind) system with natural gas prices as a variable parameter.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

On fast simulation of dynamical system with neural vector enhanced numerical solver

The large-scale simulation of dynamical systems is critical in numerous scientific and engineering disciplines. However, traditional numerical solvers are limited by the choice of step sizes when estimating integration, resulting in a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. To address this challenge, we introduce a deep learning-based corrector called Neural Vector (NeurVec), which can compensate for integration errors and enable larger time step sizes in simulations. Our extensive experiments on a variety of complex dynamical system benchmarks demonstrate that NeurVec exhibits remarkable generalization capability on a continuous phase space, even when trained using limited and discrete data. NeurVec significantly accelerates traditional solvers, achieving speeds tens to hundreds of times faster while maintaining high levels of accuracy and stability. Moreover, NeurVec’s simple-yet-effective design, combined with its ease of implementation, has the potential to establish a new paradigm for fast-solving differential equations based on deep learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility: 2021 Operational Assessment Report

This Operational Assessment Report describes how the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) met or exceeded every one of its goals for calendar year (CY) 2021 as an advanced scientific computing center. In CY 2021, the ALCF operated its production resource, Theta, an Intel-based Cray XC40 system (11.7-petaflops) augmented with 24 NVIDIA DGX A100-based nodes (3.9-petaflops) that supports diverse workloads, integrating data analytics with artificial intelligence (AI) training and learning in a single platform. In 2021, we began deploying Polaris, our newest 40- petaflops system, and augmented this powerful testbed system with an additional 28 nodes to support the integration of real-time experiments and HPC resources. We also deployed our two largest storage systems yet, named Grand and Eagle, that will bring new services to our users and will power data-driven research for years to come. Last year, Theta delivered a total of 20.8 million node-hours to 16 Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) projects and 7.2 million node-hours to ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) projects (32 awarded during the 2020–2021 ALCC year and 17 awarded during the 2021–2022 ALCC year), as well as substantial support to Director’s Discretionary (DD) projects (5.5 million node-hours). As Table ES.1 shows, Theta performed exceptionally well in terms of overall availability (95.1 percent), scheduled availability (99.4 percent), and utilization (98.1 percent; Table 2.1). As of the submission date of this document, ALCF’s user community has published 249 papers in high-quality, peer-reviewed journals and technical proceedings. At the 2021 International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC’21), Argonne researchers won two HPCwire Readers’ Choice Awards and were part of a Gordon Bell Prize finalist team recognized for developing an AI-enabled, multi-resolution simulation framework for studying complex biomolecular machines. Their framework was used to observe the SARS-CoV-2 replication-transcription machinery in action, by directly integrating experimental data. ALCF also provided a comprehensive program of high-performance computing (HPC) support services to help our community make productive use of the facility’s diverse and growing collection of resources. We are now entering the exascale era, with exascale machines being planned for national laboratories across the country, including Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in 2023. ALCF researchers have been leading and guiding numerous strategic activities that will push the boundaries of what’s possible in computational science and engineering and allow us to deliver science on day one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Cyberattack Detection for Cyber Physical Systems Security–A Preliminary Study.

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) security has become an increasingly important research topic in recent years. Geared towards more advanced cyberattack detection techniques as part of strategies for enhancing the security of CPS, in this paper we propose a machine learning based cyber-attack detection scheme. The proposed scheme is a physical-domain technique; specifically, it assumes the physical measurements of the system carry sufficient information for capturing the system behavior, thus can be used for differentiating normal operation and attacks. CPS are complex in nature and the number of physical measurements available for CPS is often overwhelmingly high. Thus, accurately modeling CPS’ dynamic behavior, more importantly, distinguishing normal and adversary activities based on the large number of physical measurements, can be challenging. To address the challenge, we have focused our research effort on feature engineering, that is, to intelligently derive a set of salient signatures or features from the noisy measurements. We make sure the derived features are more compact and, more importantly, have more discriminant power than the original physical measurements, thus enabling us to achieve more accurate and robust detection performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, in our experimental study we consider gas turbines of combined cycle power plants as the cyberphysical system. Using the data from the high-fidelity simulation we show that our proposed cyberattack detection scheme is able to achieve high detection performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1991

An Intelligent Computer-aided Training System (CAT) for Diagnosing Adult Illiterates: Integrating NASA Technology into Workplace Literacy

An important part of NASA's mission involves the secondary application of its technologies in the public and private sectors. One current application being developed is The Adult Literacy Evaluator, a simulation-based diagnostic tool designed to assess the operant literacy abilities of adults having difficulties in learning to read and write. Using Intelligent Computer-Aided Training (ICAT) system technology in addition to speech recognition, closed-captioned television (CCTV), live video and other state-of-the-art graphics and storage capabilities, this project attempts to overcome the negative effects of adult literacy assessment by allowing the client to interact with an intelligent computer system which simulates real-life literacy activities and materials and which measures literacy performance in the actual context of its use. The specific objectives of the project are as follows: (1) to develop a simulation-based diagnostic tool to assess adults' prior knowledge about reading and writing processes in actual contexts of application; (2) to provide a profile of readers' strengths and weaknesses; and (3) to suggest instructional strategies and materials which can be used as a beginning point for remediation. In the first and development phase of the project, descriptions of literacy events and environments are being written and functional literacy documents analyzed for their components. From these descriptions, scripts are being generated which define the interaction between the student, an on-screen guide and the simulated literacy environment.

Yaden, David B., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2015

nSnare™

nSnare™ analyses and categorizes log messages generated by various and customizable third party software packages using a custom multi-tiered rules engine. Each log message is either determined to be a false positive, or it is assigned a score based on the severity of the potential attack and confidence that the activity described by the log message is not a false positive. Log messages are then assigned to an event, which is a collection of log messages related to a single potential attack. Meta-analysis rules run on the collection of all logs within an event to correlate multiple related logs into a single known attack signature. When the sum of the scores of all logs within an event exceeds a pre-defined threshold, the event is labelled as an attack and an automated response is generated to block the attacker from connecting to any protected resources, called quarantining within the application, for a variable length of time. The length of time that the quarantine lasts for is based on the severity and frequency of the attack, along with historical information on the attacker and any third party provided threat intelligence data that the system has gathered. An additional random length of time is added to each quarantine so the algorithm cannot easily be learned and bypassed by a persistent attacker. A confidence score is generated based on a proprietary algorithm that determines the likelihood that the data which lead to the attacker getting quarantined was a false positive. A threat intelligence record is created for each detected attack, with details on the attacker, a summary of what triggered the quarantine, the severity of the attack and the confidence the system has that the attack is not the result of false data, which can then be shared with external entities so that they can also protect themselves from a related attack. The software also includes a web based front end for analyzing the current quarantined attacks, removing a quarantine in the case of a false positive, viewing previously quarantined attacks, and tracking suspicious activity that the system is currently evaluating. The web interface also allows the creation and modification of rules used by the rules engine, and the maintenance of a whitelist of known good systems that should never be automatically quarantined.

Hoying, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2015

Experience in remote-operated decommissioning with electromechanical equipment - 15354

For the Reprocessing Plant (WAK) in Karlsruhe, Germany, Waelischmiller developed remote handling technologies and robotics used for dismantling of several high-activity radioactive storage buildings. The key component in this project is the Waelischmiller system TELBOT{sup R}. The TELBOT{sup R} system has been successfully deployed in dozens of applications based on the customer's requirements and lessons learned. The objectives for this project were to deliver a reliable, high payload manipulator that is deployed on an excavator. The TELBOT{sup R} is a seven degree of freedom manipulator, with a 2.7 meter reach and a payload capacity of 100 kg at full reach. It is modular with selectable drives, arm lengths and joint modules. The motors and gears are located in a base behind the arm. Movements are effected by concentric tubes inside the arm links and concentric bevel gears inside the joints. Consequently, there is no wiring either inside or outside the arm and all axes can rotate freely. High-quality materials such as radiation-, acid- and corrosion-resistant materials and a final surface protective treatment are used in the manufacture of the TELBOT{sup R}. This paper will describe the TELBOT{sup R} system used by the German decommissioning program at Karlsruhe. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1991

Expert networks in CLIPS

Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

Hruska, S. I.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamics-Based Peptide–MHC Binding Optimization by a Convolutional Variational Autoencoder: A Use-Case Model for CASTELO

An unsolved challenge in the development of antigen-specific immunotherapies is determining the optimal antigens to target. Comprehension of antigen–major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding is paramount toward achieving this goal. Here, we apply CASTELO, a combined machine learning-molecular dynamics (ML-MD) approach, to identify per-residue antigen binding contributions and then design novel antigens of increased MHC-II binding affinity for a type 1 diabetes-implicated system. We build upon a small-molecule lead optimization algorithm by training a convolutional variational autoencoder (CVAE) on MD trajectories of 48 different systems across four antigens and four HLA serotypes. We develop several new machine learning metrics including a structure-based anchor residue classification model as well as cluster comparison scores. ML-MD predictions agree well with experimental binding results and free energy perturbation-predicted binding affinities. Moreover, ML-MD metrics are independent of traditional MD stability metrics such as contact area and root-mean-square fluctuations (RMSF), which do not reflect binding affinity data. Finally, our work supports the role of structure-based deep learning techniques in antigen-specific immunotherapy design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

State predictive information bottleneck

We report the ability to make sense of the massive amounts of high-dimensional data generated from molecular dynamics simulations is heavily dependent on the knowledge of a low-dimensional manifold (parameterized by a reaction coordinate or RC) that typically distinguishes between relevant metastable states, and which captures the relevant slow dynamics of interest. Methods based on machine learning and artificial intelligence have been proposed over the years to deal with learning such low-dimensional manifolds, but they are often criticized for a disconnect from more traditional and physically interpretable approaches. To deal with such concerns, in this work we propose a deep learning based state predictive information bottleneck approach to learn the RC from high-dimensional molecular simulation trajectories. We demonstrate analytically and numerically how the RC learnt in this approach is connected to the committor in chemical physics and can be used to accurately identify transition states. A crucial hyperparameter in this approach is the time delay or how far into the future the algorithm should make predictions about. Through careful comparisons for benchmark systems, we demonstrate that this hyperparameter choice gives useful control over how coarse-grained we want the metastable state classification of the system to be. We thus believe that this work represents a step forward in systematic application of deep learning based ideas to molecular simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis Learning in Automated Experiment: Application to Combinatorial Materials Libraries

Machine learning is rapidly becoming an integral part of experimental physical discovery via automated and high-throughput synthesis, and active experiments in scattering and electron/probe microscopy. This, in turn, necessitates the development of active learning methods capable of exploring relevant parameter spaces with the smallest number of steps. In this work, an active learning approach based on conavigation of the hypothesis and experimental spaces is introduced. This is realized by combining the structured Gaussian processes containing probabilistic models of the possible system's behaviors (hypotheses) with reinforcement learning policy refinement (discovery). This approach closely resembles classical human-driven physical discovery, when several alternative hypotheses realized via models with adjustable parameters are tested during an experiment. This approach is demonstrated for exploring concentration-induced phase transitions in combinatorial libraries of Sm-doped BiFeO 3 using piezoresponse force microscopy, but it is straightforward to extend it to higher-dimensional parameter spaces and more complex physical problems once the experimental workflow and hypothesis generation are available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2013

Model-Based Verification and Validation of the SMAP Uplink Processes

This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V&V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process.Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based V&V development efforts.

verification and validation (V&V)↗

NASA NTRS1990

Overview of the surface architecture and elements common to a wide range of Lunar and Mars missions

NASA has studied future missions to the moon and Mars since the 1960's, and most recently during the studies for the Space Exploration Initiative chartered by President Bush. With these most recent studies, the Lunar and Mars Exploration Program Office is looking at a number of possible options for the human exploration of the solar system. Objectives of these options include science and exploration, testing and learning centers, local planetary resource development, and self sufficient bases. To meet the objectives of any particular mission, efforts have focused primarily in three areas: (1) space transportation vehicles, (2) the associated space infrastructure to support these vehicles, and (3) the necessary infrastructure on the planet surface to carry out the mission objectives. This paper looks at work done by the Planet Surface Systems Office at JSC in the third area, and presents an overview of the approach to determining appropriate equipment and elements of the surface infrastructure needed for these mission alternatives. It describes the process of deriving appropriate surface architectures with consideration of mission objectives leading to system concepts, designation of elements and element placement.

Connolly, John F.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Habituation based synaptic plasticity and organismic learning in a quantum perovskite

A central characteristic of living beings is the ability to learn from and respond to their environment leading to habit formation and decision making. This behavior, known as habituation, is universal among all forms of life with a central nervous system, and is also observed in single-cell organisms that do not possess a brain. Here, we report the discovery of habituation-based plasticity utilizing a perovskite quantum system by dynamical modulation of electron localization. Microscopic mechanisms and pathways that enable this organismic collective charge-lattice interaction are elucidated by first-principles theory, synchrotron investigations, ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, and in situ environmental breathing studies. In conclusion, we implement a learning algorithm inspired by the conductance relaxation behavior of perovskites that naturally incorporates habituation, and demonstrate learning to forget: a key feature of animal and human brains. Incorporating this elementary skill in learning boosts the capability of neural computing in a sequential, dynamic environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Realistic Distribution System Voltage Control Using PV Inverters

Over the last few decades, the deployment of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased consistently. High PV penetration could cause adverse effects on the grid, such as voltage violations. This paper proposes a new distributed soft actor-critic based multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (SAC-MADRL) control solution to minimize the PV real power curtailment while keeping the grid voltage in an acceptable range. New reward functions have been designed to coordinate different agents during the learning process, yielding improved convergence. Comparison results with other control methods on a real feeder in western Colorado U.S. with 80% penetration of PVs demonstrate that the proposed method has better capability of effectively regulating voltage while minimizing the PV real power curtailment.

distribution system↗