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At least 937 records · Page 52

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

The nonlinear transient response of thin, rectangular elastic plates

The results of experiments and theoretical analysis of the nonlinear, transient response of thin, rectangular, elastic, simply supported plates are presented. In the experiments, a plane wave tube with a special pulse generator at one end and a thin glass plate mounted at the other end was used to subject the glass plate to pressure pulses of different magnitudes. Whole-field measurements of the response of the plate were obtained by the reflected moire grid technique. The largest ratio of center deflection to thickness of the plate during the experiments was 5.6. The theoretical response of the glass plate to the pressure pulses was computed by solving the von Karman equations governing large deflections in elastic plates by two methods - (1) the finite-difference method, and (2) Galerkin's method. Good agreement was found between theoretically predicted and experimentally measured response.

Rajagopal, G.↗

A multiscale numerical study into the cascade of kinetic energy leading to severe local storms

The cascade of kinetic energy from macro- through mesoscales is studied on the basis of a nested grid system used to solve a set of nonlinear differential equations. The kinetic energy cascade and the concentration of vorticity through the hydrodynamic spectrum provide a means for predicting the location and intensity of severe weather from large-scale data sets. A mechanism described by the surface pressure tendency equation proves to be important in explaining how initial middle-tropospheric mass-momentum imbalances alter the low-level pressure field.

Paine, D. A.↗

Satellite Power System (SPS) microwave subsystem impacts and benefits

The impacts and benefits to society of the microwave subsystem resulting from the developing, construction and operating of a space solar power to earth, electric power delivery system are presented and discussed. The primary benefit (usable energy) is conveyed mainly in the fundamental frequency portion of the RF radiation beam that is intercepted and converted to electric power output. The small fraction of the microwave and other electromagnetic energy that does not end up in the electric utility grid, yields most of the subsystem impacts. The impacts range from harmonics and noise radiated by the transmitting antenna, through potential interference with ionospheric communications and navigation caused by the power beam heating the ionosphere, to the potential large land area requirements for the rectennas and low level microwave radiation around the rectennas. Additional benefits range from a very low level of waste heat liberated and lack of atmospheric emissions including noise while operating to having no residual ionizing radiation from the rectenna when it is deactivated.

Dickinson, R. M.↗

Transonic analysis of canted winglets

A computational method developed to provide a transonic analysis for upper/lower surface wing-tip mounted winglets is described. Winglets with arbitrary planform, cant and toe angle, and airfoil section can be modeled. The embedded grid approach provides high flow field resolution and the required geometric flexibility. In particular, coupled Cartesian/cylindrical grid systems are used to model the complex geometry presented by canted upper/lower surface winglets. A new rotated difference scheme is introduced in order to maintain the stability of the small-disturbance formulation in the presence of large spanwise velocities. Wing and winglet viscous effects are modeled using a two-dimensional 'strip' boundary layer analysis. Correlations with wind tunnel and flight test data for three transport configurations are included.

Rosen, B. S.↗

The analysis of polar clouds from AVHRR satellite data using pattern recognition techniques

The cloud cover in a set of summertime and wintertime AVHRR data from the Arctic and Antarctic regions was analyzed using a pattern recognition algorithm. The data were collected by the NOAA-7 satellite on 6 to 13 Jan. and 1 to 7 Jul. 1984 between 60 deg and 90 deg north and south latitude in 5 spectral channels, at the Global Area Coverage (GAC) resolution of approximately 4 km. This data embodied a Polar Cloud Pilot Data Set which was analyzed by a number of research groups as part of a polar cloud algorithm intercomparison study. This study was intended to determine whether the additional information contained in the AVHRR channels (beyond the standard visible and infrared bands on geostationary satellites) could be effectively utilized in cloud algorithms to resolve some of the cloud detection problems caused by low visible and thermal contrasts in the polar regions. The analysis described makes use of a pattern recognition algorithm which estimates the surface and cloud classification, cloud fraction, and surface and cloudy visible (channel 1) albedo and infrared (channel 4) brightness temperatures on a 2.5 x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. In each grid box several spectral and textural features were computed from the calibrated pixel values in the multispectral imagery, then used to classify the region into one of eighteen surface and/or cloud types using the maximum likelihood decision rule. A slightly different version of the algorithm was used for each season and hemisphere because of differences in categories and because of the lack of visible imagery during winter. The classification of the scene is used to specify the optimal AVHRR channel for separating clear and cloudy pixels using a hybrid histogram-spatial coherence method. This method estimates values for cloud fraction, clear and cloudy albedos and brightness temperatures in each grid box. The choice of a class-dependent AVHRR channel allows for better separation of clear and cloudy pixels than does a global choice of a visible and/or infrared threshold. The classification also prevents erroneous estimates of large fractional cloudiness in areas of cloudfree snow and sea ice. The hybrid histogram-spatial coherence technique and the advantages of first classifying a scene in the polar regions are detailed. The complete Polar Cloud Pilot Data Set was analyzed and the results are presented and discussed.

Smith, William L.↗

Numerical study of external burning flowfields

This paper demonstrates the successful application of CFD to modeling an external burning flowfield. The study used the 2D, 3D, and PNS versions of the SPARK code. Various grids, boundary conditions, and ignition methodologies have been employed. Flameholding was achieved through the use of a subsonic outflow condition and a hot block located behind the step to ignite the fuel. Since the resulting burning produces a large subsonic region downstream of the cowl, this entire surface can be pressurized to the level of the back pressure. An evaluation of interactions between the ramjet exhaust and the external burning products demonstrate the complexity of this design issue. Ths code is now capable of evaluating the external burning effectiveness for flight vehicles using simple injector schemes, and the methodology can be readily applied to other external burning designs.

Bittner, Robert D.↗

Simulations of curved turbulent boundary layers

The objective of this work is to develop a space-time accurate numerical method for the solution of incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in generalized coordinates. The resulting code is to be used for direct and large-eddy simulation of turbulence in complex geometries. In a previous paper, the system of Navier-Stokes equations in general curvilinear coordinates was solved by a second-order accurate finite-difference scheme. Satisfactory results were obtained for several flows in two and three dimensions. The system of Navier-Stokes for the fluxes are given in Orlandi (1989). The main deficiency of the numerical scheme was the large CPU time required for the solution of the Poisson equation for the 'pressure' field. The point SOR relaxation, in conjunction with a multigrid scheme, was used for the Poisson equation. In some cases, particularly with very fine grids, it was impossible to obtain a divergent-free flow. A preliminary attempt is made to compute the spatially evolving flow of Swearingen & Blackwelder. To reduce the streamwise distance, the inflow was at a distance x = 60 cm from the leading edge.

Orlandi, Paolo↗

Numerical Solution of Incompressible Navier-Stokes Equations Using a Fractional-Step Approach

A fractional step method for the solution of steady and unsteady incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is outlined. The method is based on a finite volume formulation and uses the pressure in the cell center and the mass fluxes across the faces of each cell as dependent variables. Implicit treatment of convective and viscous terms in the momentum equations enables the numerical stability restrictions to be relaxed. The linearization error in the implicit solution of momentum equations is reduced by using three subiterations in order to achieve second order temporal accuracy for time-accurate calculations. In spatial discretizations of the momentum equations, a high-order (3rd and 5th) flux-difference splitting for the convective terms and a second-order central difference for the viscous terms are used. The resulting algebraic equations are solved with a line-relaxation scheme which allows the use of large time step. A four color ZEBRA scheme is employed after the line-relaxation procedure in the solution of the Poisson equation for pressure. This procedure is applied to a Couette flow problem using a distorted computational grid to show that the method minimizes grid effects. Additional benchmark cases include the unsteady laminar flow over a circular cylinder for Reynolds Numbers of 200, and a 3-D, steady, turbulent wingtip vortex wake propagation study. The solution algorithm does a very good job in resolving the vortex core when 5th-order upwind differencing and a modified production term in the Baldwin-Barth one-equation turbulence model are used with adequate grid resolution.

Kiris, Cetin↗

Quicker Q-Learning in Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent learning in Markov Decisions Problems is challenging because of the presence ot two credit assignment problems: 1) How to credit an action taken at time step t for rewards received at t' greater than t; and 2) How to credit an action taken by agent i considering the system reward is a function of the actions of all the agents. The first credit assignment problem is typically addressed with temporal difference methods such as Q-learning OK TD(lambda) The second credit assi,onment problem is typically addressed either by hand-crafting reward functions that assign proper credit to an agent, or by making certain independence assumptions about an agent's state-space and reward function. To address both credit assignment problems simultaneously, we propose the Q Updates with Immediate Counterfactual Rewards-learning (QUICR-learning) designed to improve both the convergence properties and performance of Q-learning in large multi-agent problems. Instead of assuming that an agent s value function can be made independent of other agents, this method suppresses the impact of other agents using counterfactual rewards. Results on multi-agent grid-world problems over multiple topologies show that QUICR-learning can achieve up to thirty fold improvements in performance over both conventional and local Q-learning in the largest tested systems.

Agogino, Adrian K.↗

Hybrid Large-Eddy/Reynolds-Averaged Simulation of a Supersonic Cavity Using VULCAN

Simulations of a supersonic recessed-cavity flow are performed using a hybrid large-eddy/Reynolds-averaged simulation approach utilizing an inflow turbulence recycling procedure and hybridized inviscid flux scheme. Calorically perfect air enters a three-dimensional domain at a free stream Mach number of 2.92. Simulations are performed to assess grid sensitivity of the solution, efficacy of the turbulence recycling, and the effect of the shock sensor used with the hybridized inviscid flux scheme. Analysis of the turbulent boundary layer upstream of the rearward-facing step for each case indicates excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. Mean velocity and pressure results are compared to Reynolds-averaged simulations and experimental data for each case and indicate good agreement on the finest grid. Simulations are repeated on a coarsened grid, and results indicate strong grid density sensitivity. Simulations are performed with and without inflow turbulence recycling on the coarse grid to isolate the effect of the recycling procedure, which is demonstrably critical to capturing the relevant shear layer dynamics. Shock sensor formulations of Ducros and Larsson are found to predict mean flow statistics equally well.

Quinlan, Jesse↗

Development of a Terrain Mapping/Crater Evolution Measurement using Diffractive Optical Elements

When landing on the moon, understanding the interaction of the engine exhaust plume with the lunar surface is critical for the success of the descent and landing flight phases. Two evaluation tools currently used are computational simulations and ground test measurements. Computational simulations require experimental measurements for comparison/validation, but ground test measurements cannot accurately emulate all aspects of an actual lunar landing; flight tests remain the only method of obtaining fully representative data. A terrain mapping/crater evolution measurement system was developed for potential inclusion on a future lander mission. This system uses two stereo cameras viewing a laser dot grid pattern projected on the ground, where the grid is created by shining a laser through one or two diffractive optical elements. CAD simulations of the stereo imaging system are first used to validate the proposed design. Laboratory testing of the system using both a large-scale fixed-geometry crater and a small-scale evolving-geometry crater validate the use of the system for terrain mapping measurements, and for its potential inclusion on a future lander mission.

Joshua M Weisberger↗

Development of a Terrain Mapping/Crater Evolution Measurement using Diffractive Optical Elements

When landing on the moon, understanding the interaction of the engine exhaust plume with the lunar surface is critical for the success of the descent and landing flight phases. Two evaluation tools currently used are computational simulations and ground test measurements. Computational simulations require experimental measurements for comparison/validation, but ground test measurements cannot accurately emulate all aspects of an actual lunar landing; flight tests remain the only method of obtaining fully representative data. A terrain mapping/crater evolution measurement system was developed for potential inclusion on a future lander mission. This system uses two stereo cameras viewing a laser dot grid pattern projected on the ground, where the grid is created by shining a laser through one or two diffractive optical elements. CAD simulations of the stereo imaging system are first used to validate the proposed design. Laboratory testing of the system using both a large-scale fixed-geometry crater and a small-scale evolving-geometry crater validate the use of the system for terrain mapping measurements. High-speed, front-illumination shadow particle tracking of particles ejected from the evolving geometry crater is also performed, demonstrating another diagnostic that can be used to further the understanding of plume-surface interactions.

Joshua M Weisberger↗

Methods and Results for a Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Validation Network Prototype

As one component of a ground validation system to meet requirements for the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a quasi-operational prototype a system to compare satellite- and ground-based radar measurements has been developed. This prototype, the GPM Validation Network (VN), acquires data from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and from ground radar (GR) networks in the continental U.S. and participating international sites. PR data serve as a surrogate for similar observations from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to be present on GPM. Primary goals of the VN prototype are to understand and characterize the variability and bias of precipitation retrievals between the PR and GR in various precipitation regimes at large scales, and to improve precipitation retrieval algorithms for the GPM instruments. The current VN capabilities concentrate on comparisons of the base reflectivity observations between the PR and GR, and include support for rain rate comparisons. The VN algorithm resamples PR and GR reflectivity and other 2-D and 3-D data fields to irregular common volumes defined by the geometric intersection of the instrument observations, and performs statistical comparisons of PR and GR reflectivity and estimated rain rates. Algorithmic biases and uncertainties introduced by traditional data analysis techniques are minimized by not performing interpolation or extrapolation of data to a fixed grid. The core VN dataset consists of WSR-88D GR data and matching PR orbit subset data covering 21 sites in the southeastern U. S., from August, 2006 to the present. On average, about 3.5 overpass events per month for these WSR-88D sites meet VN criteria for significant precipitation, and have matching PR and GR data available. This large statistical sample has allowed the relative calibration accuracy and stability of the individual ground radars, and the quality of the PR reflectivity attenuation correction in convective and stratiform precipitation to be evaluated. We will present results of PR-GR reflectivity and rain rate bias comparisons for each OR site, and for different rain types, for the full data set and as time series. The capabilities of the statistical analysis and vertical cross section tools for display and analysis of individual site overpass event data will be described, and examples of the tools' outputs will be shown.

Morris, Kenneth R.↗

Homogenization models for 2-D grid structures

In the past several years, we have pursued efforts related to the development of accurate models for the dynamics of flexible structures made of composite materials. Rather than viewing periodicity and sparseness as obstacles to be overcome, we exploit them to our advantage. We consider a variational problem on a domain that has large, periodically distributed holes. Using homogenization techniques we show that the solution to this problem is in some topology 'close' to the solution of a similar problem that holds on a much simpler domain. We study the behavior of the solution of the variational problem as the holes increase in number, but decrease in size in such a way that the total amount of material remains constant. The result is an equation that is in general more complex, but with a domain that is simply connected rather than perforated. We study the limit of the solution as the amount of material goes to zero. This second limit will, in most cases, retrieve much of the simplicity that was lost in the first limit without sacrificing the simplicity of the domain. Finally, we show that these results can be applied to the case of a vibrating Love-Kirchhoff plate with Kelvin-Voigt damping. We rely heavily on earlier results of (Du), (CS) for the static, undamped Love-Kirchhoff equation. Our efforts here result in a modification of those results to include both time dependence and Kelvin-Voigt damping.

Banks, H. T.↗

A dynamic localization model with stochastic backscatter

The modeling of subgrid scales in large-eddy simulation (LES) has been rationalized by the introduction of the dynamic localization procedure. This method allows one to compute rather than prescribe the unknown coefficients in the subgrid-scale model. Formally, the LES equations are supposed to be obtained by applying to the Navier-Stokes equations a 'grid filter' operation. Though the subgrid stress itself is unknown, an identity between subgrid stresses generated by different filters has been derived. Although preliminary tests of the Dynamic Localization Model (DLM) with k-equation have been satisfactory, the use of a negative eddy viscosity to describe backscatter is probably a crude representation of the physics of reverse transfer of energy. Indeed, the model is fully deterministic. Knowing the filtered velocity field and the subgrid-scale energy, the subgrid stress is automatically determined. We know that the LES equations cannot be fully deterministic since the small scales are not resolved. This stems from an important distinction between equilibrium hydrodynamics and turbulence. In equilibrium hydrodynamics, the molecular motions are also not resolved. However, there is a clear separation of scale between these unresolved motions and the relevant hydrodynamic scales. The result of molecular motions can then be separated into an average effect (the molecular viscosity) and some fluctuations. Due to the large number of molecules present in a box with size of the order of the hydrodynamic scale, the ratio between fluctuations and the average effect should be very small (as a result of the 'law of large numbers'). For that reason, the hydrodynamic balance equations are usually purely deterministic. In turbulence, however, there is no clear separation of scale between small and large eddies. In that case, the fluctuations around a deterministic eddy viscosity term could be significant. An eddy noise would then appear through a stochastic term in the subgrid-scale model and could be the source of backscatter.

Carati, Daniele↗

Particle motion on Mars inferred from the Viking lander cameras

Data from Viking lander cameras indicate fine particle mobility on the surface of Mars such as: probable ventifacts, rock-associated raised streaks, and particulate drifts. Peak wind directions inferred from Chryse and Utopia are roughly equal, and are consistant with those inferred by orbiter photography. A 24 deg systematic offset between: (1) the direction of rock-associated streaks in the Viking I landing site, and (2) Mariner 9 and Viking observations of crater-associated streaks is consistant with a Coriolis acceleration of particles entrained by high-velocity winds during the production of crater-associated streaks. It is suggested that if a large fraction of collision impact energy goes into deformation, strain, and rupture, a preferential destruction of the most easily saltated grains and a depletion of 15-micron diameter grains will be observed. Investigations of particulates dumped on the landing grid suggest that major saltation events took place between sols 96 and 207, caused by winds of greater than 50 meters/sec normalized to the top of the boundary layer.

Sagan, C.↗