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McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
Abstract Cornell University intends to use a deep direct-use geothermal system to heat its Ithaca, New York, campus. In preparation for this project, the Cornell Seismic Network has been monitoring the background seismicity in this intraplate region since 2019. From January 2020 to June 2023, 95 events were detected within 20 km of the proposed geothermal well site, with local magnitudes ranging from −1.02 to 0.56. None of these events appear in regional or national catalogs. Events locate in a narrow geographic band, with one-fourth exhibiting multimodal hypocentral probability peaks both near the surface and at 1–4 km depth. We relocate events with a joint hypocenter and 1D velocity model inversion, in addition to a fully nonlinear method, and then compare observations with synthetic waveforms. Together, these approaches provide strong evidence for >95% of events locating at the surface or within the 3-km-thick sedimentary sequence. We explore how anthropogenic activity and regional topographic stress may contribute to frequent surficial events. This information is critical for characterizing the background microseismicity for comparison during future geothermal operations. Ithaca’s geology of Paleozoic sediments overlying Precambrian crystalline basement is typical of many continental interiors, so these results also provide insight into intraplate microseismicity patterns.
The large quantities of antineutrinos produced through the decay of fission fragments in nuclear reactors provide an opportunity to study the properties of these particles and investigate their use in reactor monitoring. The reactor antineutrino spectra are measured using specialized, large area detectors that detect antineutrinos through inverse beta decay, electron elastic scattering, or coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering; although, inverse beta decay is the only demonstrated method so far. Reactor monitoring takes advantage of the differences in the antineutrino yield and spectra resulting from uranium and plutonium fission providing an opportunity to estimate the fissile material composition in the reactor. Recent experiments reveal a deviation between the measured and calculated antineutrino flux and spectra (the reactor anomaly) indicating either the existence of yet undiscovered neutrino physics, uncertainties in the reactor source term calculation, incorrect nuclear data, or a combination of all three. To address the nuclear data that impact the antineutrino spectrum calculations and measurements, an international group of over 180 experts in antineutrino physics, reactor analysis, detector development, and nuclear data came together during the Workshop on Nuclear Data for Reactor Antineutrino Measurements (WoNDRAM) to discuss nuclear data needs and achieve concordance on a set of recommended priorities for nuclear data improvements. Three topical sessions focused on the reactor source term, the antineutrino spectrum, and the detector response, provided a forum to gain consensus amongst the participants on the most important data improvements to address two goals: 1) understand the reactor anomaly and 2) improve the ability to monitor reactors using antineutrinos. This report summarizes the outcomes of the workshop discussions and the recommendations for nuclear data efforts that reduce reactor antineutrino measurement uncertainties.
This document is the final report to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE for contract DE-FE0031873) awarded to Colorado State University (CSU). CSU and partners at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology, University of Texas Arlington, and University of Texas at Austin organized several testing rounds to provide knowledge focused on advancing the detection capabilities of emissions monitoring devices. With this funding opportunity the research group began by establishing the Advancing the Development of Emission Detection (ADED) program, with the goal focused on enhancing the accuracy, reliability, and field applicability of methane detection technologies. This effort aimed to address the critical challenges of identifying and quantifying methane emissions while enabling industry stakeholders to meet regulatory compliance and environmental sustainability goals. The program engaged with industry, government, and technology stakeholders to promote adoption and consensus on testing techniques for methane detection solutions. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, contributes significantly to global warming, and the oil and natural gas (O&G) sector is a primary source of methane emissions. Regulatory measures such as leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs have been implemented to address emissions. However, traditional LDAR approaches, reliant on handheld and component-level measurements, are resource-intensive. To address these limitations and move with evolving regulations, advanced methane technologies are emerging. These solutions include ground-based sensors, mobile systems (e.g., drones, vehicles, and aircraft), and satellite-based platforms. They offer innovative capabilities for autonomous monitoring, larger spatial coverage, and emission quantification using methods such as tracer gas techniques and inverse modeling with Gaussian plume analysis. The ADED program began with creating protocols for methane controlled release (CR) testing these continuous monitoring (CM) and survey technologies that detect and monitor methane emissions at O&G facilities. The protocols were then implemented throughout testing of CM and survey devices at CSU’s Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) facility from 2021 through 2024. As apart of the protocol, solutions that tested under the ADED program installed their solutions at METEC, documented their system under test, and provided detection reports to the METEC team for analysis. The METEC team would provide the solutions with analyzed reports of their emissions and ground truth data of the releases conducted during their testing session. Under the ADED program, CMs were also tested at O&G facilities for a six week test run of challenge release (ChR) releases. The findings from the ADED program underscore the critical role of collaborative research and innovation in tackling methane emissions, offering a pathway for the oil and gas sector to achieve significant environmental and economic benefits. Results from METEC testing saw improvement of performance and accuracy across all solutions over the extent of the ADED experiments. The results also showed a variance in CM solution performance between CRs and ChRs. That variance pushed the team to further analyze the differences between CR testing environments and field conditions. With the drive from regulations and that variance in field conditions, the ADED team began designing a new CR testing protocol and additions to the METEC testing facility. The METEC team is furthering the progress made through the ADED program with awarded funding from DE-FE0032276. This funding pushes the development of METEC’s addition with new equipment, allowing for an updated facility layout. METEC still facilitates for traditional facilities, with a legacy pad, while expanding an new design based on how O&G infrastructure has Final Report - Contract Number: DE-FE0031873 been changed over the last decade. Throughout the ADED program the team has also been working with international partners to ensure staying in the trend globally. International partners have been essential in moving the new protocol forward to implement into CR testing at the METEC facility in Spring 2025.
Nuclear research articles can provide information about early nuclear proliferation indicators such as influential research entities and technology capability levels of a country, but detection of nuclear activities typically occurs after they have started. We investigate the extent to which nuclear research articles can be used to infer whether a research entity will acquire or develop a nuclear technology before it happens. Early detection of nuclear proliferation or technology development indicators from data is challenging due to partial observability, sparse and unlabeled information, and confounding signals from multiple concurrent activities. This paper presents the early detection problem as a sequential decision-making, goal inference problem, where the objective is to characterize and predict an individual’s, organization’s, or a country’s intent (unobserved goal-directed behavior) towards developing a nuclear capability from partially observed sequences of their research publications, using inverse reinforcement learning and Bayesian goal inference methods. A computational framework is presented, and its application demonstrated using 29,196 Scopus records for a case study related to a civil nuclear capability. The case study results serve as a proof-of-concept demonstration for inference of technology-directed research activity of authors who publish in the nuclear domain. The inference method, combined with advanced computing, may be used to assess and monitor activities pertaining to early developmental stages of a nuclear technology or capability, which in turn can help to identify and prioritize activities with nuclear proliferation potential for further investigation.
The Monte Carlo method is used for two types of problems. First, there are interpretation problems of optical observations from meteorological satellites in the short wave part of the spectrum. The sphericity of the atmosphere, the propagation function, and light polarization are considered. Second, problems dealt with the theory of spreading narrow light beams. Direct simulation of light scattering and the mathematical form of medium radiation model representation are discussed, and general integral transfer equations are calculated. The dependent tests method, derivative estimates, and solution to the inverse problem are also considered.
The direct-inverse technique was developed into a numerical method, called TRANDES, that is suitable for the analysis and design of subsonic and transonic airfoils and for the evaluation of design concepts. A general description of the method is given and its application to a design analysis type of problem is demonstrated. A usage of the method for the low speed high lift case is discussed.
In this paper, steady, axisymmetric inviscid, and viscous (laminar) swirling flows representing vortex breakdown phenomena are simulated using a stream function-vorticity-circulation formulation and two numerical methods. The first is based on an inverse iteration, where a norm of the solution is prescribed and the swirling parameter is calculated as a part of the output. The second is based on direct Newton iterations, where the linearized equations, for all the unknowns, are solved simultaneously by an efficient banded Gaussian elimination procedure. Several numerical solutions for inviscid and viscous flows are demonstrated, followed by a discussion of the results. Some improvements on previous work have been achieved: first order upwind differences are replaced by second order schemes, line relaxation procedure (with linear convergence rate) is replaced by Newton's iterations (which converge quadratically), and Reynolds numbers are extended from 200 up to 1000.
Autonomous robot task execution requires that the end effector of the robot be positioned accurately relative to a reference world-coordinate frame. The authors present a complete formulation to identify the actual robot geometric parameters. The method applies to any serial link manipulator with arbitrary order and combination of revolute and prismatic joints. A method is also presented to solve the inverse kinematic of the actual robot model which usually is not a so-called simple robot. Experimental results performed by utilizing a PUMA 560 with simple measurement hardware are presented. As a result of this calibration a precision move command is designed and integrated into a robot language, RCCL, and used in the NASA Telerobot Testbed.
Two methods to image scattering centers in 3-D are presented. The first method uses 2-D images generated from Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar (ISAR) measurements taken by two vertically offset antennas. This technique is shown to provide accurate 3-D imaging capability which can be added to an existing ISAR measurement system, requiring only the addition of a second antenna. The second technique uses target impulse responses generated from wideband radar measurements from three slightly different offset antennas. This technique is shown to identify the dominant scattering centers on a target in nearly real time. The number of measurements required to image a target using this technique is very small relative to traditional imaging techniques.
A method is presented to order (n) recursively invert the Jacobian matrix for a serial n-link manipulator. By realizing that the Jacobian relationship involving accelerations is a special case for the forward dynamics problem, it is possible to obtain the Jacobian inverse by directly applying Rodriguez's (1987) recursive forward dynamics algorithm. In this technique, the n-link robot equation is formulated as a spatially recursive algorithm in the form of a filtering and smoothing problem. To compute the Jacobian inverse via this algorithm, the n-link manipulator is modeled with only a unit end-point mass and zero applied torques.
An efficient steady analysis for predicting strong inviscid/viscid interaction phenomena such as viscous-layer separation, shock/boundary-layer interaction, and trailing-edge/near-wake interaction in turbomachinery blade passages is described. It uses an inviscid/viscid interaction approach, wherein the flow in the outer inviscid region is assumed to be potential, and that in the inner or viscous-layer region is governed by Prandtl's equations. The inviscid solution is determined using an implicit, least-squares, finite-difference approximation. The viscous-layer solution is obtained using an inverse, finite-difference, space-marching method which is applied along the blade surfaces and the wake streamline. A semiinverse global iteration procedure permits the prediction of boundary-layer separation and other strong-interaction phenomena. Results are presented for two cascades where a range of inlet flow conditions was considered for one of them including conditions leading to large-scale flow separation.
Design of a parallel force-reflecting hand controller that implements a friction- and inertia canceling control loop about the entire mechanism based on wrench sensing in the mechanism handgrip is discussed. Kinematics of the controller under consideration is analyzed and results are presented using a closed-form solution for the inverse kinematics and Newton-Raphson's method for the forward kinematics. Results indicate that the force control scheme based on a handgrip force sensor provides smaller steady-state errors than the scheme without a handigrip sensor.
The effects of laterally homogeneous mantle electrical conductivity were included in steady, frozen-flux core surface flow estimation along with refinements in method and weighting. The refined method allows simultaneous solution for both the initial radial geomagnetic field component at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and the sub-adjacent fluid motion; it also features Gauss' method for solving the non-linear inverse problem associated with steady motional induction. The tradeoff between spatial complexity of the derived flows and misfit to the weighted Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field models (DGRF's) is studied for various mantle conductivity profiles. For simple flow and a fixed initial geomagnetic condition, a fairly high deep-mantle conductivity performs better than either insulating or weakly conducting profiles; however, a thin, very high conductivity layer at the base of the mantle performs almost as well. Simultaneous solution for both initial geomagnetic field and flow reduces the misfit per degree of freedom even more than does changing the mantle conductivity profile. Moreover, when both core field and flow are estimated, the performance of the solutions and the derived flows become insensitive to the conductivity profile.
This paper describes the implementation of optimization techniques based on control theory for airfoil design. In our previous work it was shown that control theory could be employed to devise effective optimization procedures for two-dimensional profiles by using the potential flow equation with either a conformal mapping or a general coordinate system. The goal of our present work is to extend the development to treat the Euler equations in two-dimensions by procedures that can readily be generalized to treat complex shapes in three-dimensions. Therefore, we have developed methods which can address airfoil design through either an analytic mapping or an arbitrary grid perturbation method applied to a finite volume discretization of the Euler equations. Here the control law serves to provide computationally inexpensive gradient information to a standard numerical optimization method. Results are presented for both the inverse problem and drag minimization problem.
We describe Earth's mass flux from April 2003 through November 2008 by deriving a time series of mas cons on a global 2deg x 2deg equal-area grid at 10 day intervals. We estimate the mass flux directly from K band range rate (KBRR) data provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Using regularized least squares, we take into account the underlying process dynamics through continuous space and time-correlated constraints. In addition, we place the mascon approach in the context of other filtering techniques, showing its equivalence to anisotropic, nonsymmetric filtering, least squares collocation, and Kalman smoothing. We produce mascon time series from KBRR data that have and have not been corrected (forward modeled) for hydrological processes and fmd that the former produce superior results in oceanic areas by minimizing signal leakage from strong sources on land. By exploiting the structure of the spatiotemporal constraints, we are able to use a much more efficient (in storage and computation) inversion algorithm based upon the conjugate gradient method. This allows us to apply continuous rather than piecewise continuous time-correlated constraints, which we show via global maps and comparisons with ocean-bottom pressure gauges, to produce time series with reduced random variance and full systematic signal. Finally, we present a preferred global model, a hybrid whose oceanic portions are derived using forward modeling of hydrology but whose land portions are not, and thus represent a pure GRACE-derived signal.
Algorithms for neutrino-matter coupling in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are investigated in the context of a spectral two-moment model, which is discretized in space with the discontinuous Galerkin method, integrated in time with implicit-explicit (IMEX) methods, and implemented in the toolkit for high-order neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics (thornado). The model considers electron neutrinos and antineutrinos and tabulated opacities from Bruenn (1985), which includes neutrino-electron scattering and pair processes. The nonlinear system arising from implicit time discretization of the equations governing neutrino-matter coupling is iterated to convergence using Anderson-accelerated fixed-point methods, which avoid formation of Jacobians and inversion of dense linear systems. Numerical experiments show that, for a given tolerance, a nested iteration scheme which aims to reduce opacity evaluations can lower the computational cost. Our initial port to GPUs, using both OpenMP and OpenACC, shows an overall speedup of up to ~ 100× when compared to results using a single CPU core. These results indicate that the algorithms implemented in thornado are well-suited to GPU acceleration.
We describe a novel framework for estimating subsurface properties, such as rock permeability and porosity, from time-lapse observed seismic data by coupling full-waveform inversion (FWI), subsurface flow processes, and rock physics models. For the inverse modeling, we handle the back propagation of gradients by an intrusive automatic differentiation strategy that offers three levels of user control: (1) At the wave physics level, we adopted the discrete adjoint method in order to use our existing high-performance FWI code; (2) at the rock physics level, we used built-in automatic differentiation operators from the TensorFlow backend; (3) at the flow physics level, we implemented customized partial differential equation (PDE) operators for the multiphase flow equations. The three-level coupled inversion strategy strikes a good balance between computational efficiency and programming efforts, and when the gradients are chained together, it constitutes a coupled inverse system. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the three-level coupled inverse problem is superior in terms of accuracy to a traditional decoupled inversion strategy. Additionally, our method is able to simultaneously invert for parameters in empirical relationships such as the rock physics models. Our proposed inverted model can be used for reservoir performance prediction and reservoir management/optimization purposes.