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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2016

Integrated Surface/subsurface flow modeling in PFLOTRAN

Understanding soil water, groundwater, and shallow surface water dynamics as an integrated hydrological system is critical for understanding the Earth’s critical zone, the thin outer layer at our planet’s surface where vegetation, soil, rock, and gases interact to regulate the environment. Computational tools that take this view of soil moisture and shallow surface flows as a single integrated system are typically referred to as integrated surface/subsurface hydrology models. We extend the open-source, highly parallel, subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to accommodate surface flows. In contrast to most previous implementations, we do not represent a distinct surface system. Instead, the vertical gradient in hydraulic head at the land surface is neglected, which allows the surface flow system to be eliminated and incorporated directly into the subsurface system. This tight coupling approach leads to a robust capability and also greatly simplifies implementation in existing subsurface simulators such as PFLOTRAN. Successful comparisons to independent numerical solutions build confidence in the approximation and implementation. Example simulations of the Walker Branch and East Fork Poplar Creek watersheds near Oak Ridge, Tennessee demonstrate the robustness of the approach in geometrically complex applications. The lack of a robust integrated surface/subsurface hydrology capability had been a barrier to PFLOTRAN’s use in critical zone studies. This work addresses that capability gap, thus enabling PFLOTRAN as a community platform for building integrated models of the critical zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Triple Effect Economics: How Do Electric Vehicles, Solar Photovoltaics, and Work-from-Home Transform Household Electricity Cost?

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be affordable as well as sustainable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact a household's overall energy consumption and cost in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's electricity cost burden. Leveraging the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. National level RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and cost saving mechanism. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

Formation of a repressive complex in the mammalian circadian clock is mediated by the secondary pocket of CRY1

The basic helix-loop-helix PAS domain (bHLH-PAS) transcription factor CLOCK:BMAL1 (brain and muscle Arnt-like protein 1) sits at the core of the mammalian circadian transcription/translation feedback loop. Precise control of CLOCK:BMAL1 activity by coactivators and repressors establishes the ~24-h periodicity of gene expression. Formation of a repressive complex, defined by the core clock proteins cryptochrome 1 (CRY1):CLOCK:BMAL1, plays an important role controlling the switch from repression to activation each day. Here in this paper, we show that CRY1 binds directly to the PAS domain core of CLOCK: BMAL1, driven primarily by interaction with the CLOCK PAS-B domain. Integrative modeling and solution X-ray scattering studies unambiguously position a key loop of the CLOCK PAS-B domain in the secondary pocket of CRY1, analogous to the antenna chromophore-binding pocket of photolyase. CRY1 docks onto the transcription factor alongside the PAS domains, extending above the DNA-binding bHLH domain. Single point mutations at the interface on either CRY1 or CLOCK disrupt formation of the ternary complex, highlighting the importance of this interface for direct regulation of CLOCK:BMAL1 activity by CRY1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Triple Effect: Unraveling the Joint Impact of Electric Vehicles, Solar Panels, and Work-From-Home Patterns on Household Electricity Costs

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be sustainable as well as affordable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact the overall energy consumption and cost of a household in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's energy (electricity cost) burden. Leveraging Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and affordable future. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia

The adequacy of freshwater resources remains a critical challenge for a sustainable and growing society. We present a self-consistent risk-based assessment of water availability and use under future climate change and socioeconomic growth by midcentury across southern and eastern Asia (SEA). We employ large ensemble scenarios from an integrated modeling framework that are consistent across the spectrum of regional climate, population, and economic projections. We find socioeconomic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the entire ensemble. However, climate change drives the ensemble central tendency toward an increase in water stress in China but a reduction in India, with a considerable spread across the ensemble. Nevertheless, the most deleterious unabated climate-change impact is a low probability but salient extreme increase in water stress over China and India. In these outcomes, annual withdrawals will routinely exceed water-storage capacity. A modest greenhouse gas mitigation pathway eliminates the likelihood of these extreme outcomes and also benefits hundreds of millions of people at risk to various levels of water stress increase. Over SEA we estimate an additional 200 million people under threat of facing at least heavily water-stressed conditions from climate change and socioeconomic growth, but the mitigation scenario reduces the additional population-under-threat by 30% (60 million). Nevertheless, there remains a 1-in-2 chance that 100 million people across SEA experience a 50% increase in water stress and a 1-in-10 chance they experience a doubling of water stress. Therefore, widespread adaptive measures may be required over the coming decades to meet these unavoidable risks in water shortfalls.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Exploration Medical System Trade Study Tools Overview

ExMC is creating an ecosystem of tools to enable well-informed medical system trade studies. The suite of tools address important system implementation aspects of the space medical capabilities trade space and are being built using knowledge from the medical community regarding the unique aspects of space flight. Two integrating models, a systems engineering model and a medical risk analysis model, tie the tools together to produce an integrated assessment of the medical system and its ability to achieve medical system target requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of the various tools that are a part of the tool ecosystem. Initially, the presentation's focus will address the tools that supply the foundational information to the ecosystem. Specifically, the talk will describe how information that describes how medicine will be practiced is captured and categorized for efficient utilization in the tool suite. For example, the talk will include capturing what conditions will be planned for in-mission treatment, planned medical activities (e.g., periodic physical exam), required medical capabilities (e.g., provide imaging), and options to implement the capabilities (e.g., an ultrasound device). Database storage and configuration management will also be discussed. The presentation will include an overview of how these information tools will be tied to parameters in a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) model, allowing traceability to system behavioral, structural, and requirements content. The discussion will also describe an HRP-led enhanced risk assessment model developed to provide quantitative insight into each capability's contribution to mission success. Key outputs from these various tools, to be shared with the space medical and exploration mission development communities, will be assessments of medical system implementation option satisfaction of requirements and per-capability contributions toward achieving requirements.

Mindock, J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of methane mass transfer and sorption in Marcellus shale under variable net-stress

Natural gas in shale exists as free and adsorbed gas, subject to prevailing pore pressures and stress conditions. Accordingly, to accurately estimate/predict the shale gas recovery potential, a central requirement is to represent gas transport and sorption behavior under varying stress conditions. The objective of this work is to facilitate the interpretation of laboratory-scale experiments, at relevant conditions, in an attempt to bridge the gap in scales between laboratory- and field-scale observations. We have conducted a series of high-pressure experiments on a full-diameter core sample from the Marcellus shale. These include gas loading (pressure-decay) and depletion (production) experiments with pure methane (CH 4 ) at variable stress conditions to characterize transport and sorption behavior under reservoir-relevant conditions. Here we have formulated and applied a novel integral model for mass transfer and storage in multi-porosity shale systems that allows us to effectively investigate transport and sorption phenomena: We delineate gas transport by interpreting helium (He) pressure-decay experiments and demonstrate how to use the information gained to calculate the relevant transport coefficients of CH 4 and other gases. A separate measurement of the CH 4 sorption isotherm on a smaller sample (a shale cube) was interpreted and combined with the transport description to predict the production behavior of CH 4 from the experiments with the full-diameter core. Our experiments demonstrate that the representation of sorption hysteresis is crucial for predicting and guiding shale gas production: At the end of both gas production experiments, approximately 20% of the initial gas in place remained in the core. Without accounting for sorption hysteresis, our modeling demonstrates that the CH 4 production could be overestimated by 10%. We demonstrate that our integral, triple-porosity model provides an effective approach for the interpretation and prediction of gas transport and sorption behavior during loading and production experiments on shale cores under variable net-stress conditions. In summary, our work combines measurements and modeling of mass transfer and sorption in shales at different scales to validate a characterization approach that facilitates an improved understanding of shale gas production. Furthermore, the triple-porosity model utilized in our work defines a potential pathway for the translation of laboratory-scale experimentation to larger-scale applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Model development for household waste prevention behaviour

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model waste prevention behaviour using structure equation modelling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We merge attitude-behaviour theories with wider models from environmental psychology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main behaviour predictors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental concern, moral obligation and inconvenience are the main influence on the behaviour. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Waste prevention and recycling are different dimensions of waste management behaviour. - Abstract: Understanding waste prevention behaviour (WPB) could enable local governments and decision makers to design more-effective policies for reducing the amount of waste that is generated. By merging well-known attitude-behaviour theories with elements from wider models from environmental psychology, an extensive cognitive framework that provides new and valuable insights is developed for understanding the involvement of individuals in waste prevention. The results confirm the usefulness of the theory of planned behaviour and of Schwartz's altruistic behaviour model as bases for modelling participation in waste prevention. A more elaborate integrated model of prevention was shown to be necessary for the complete analysis of attitudinal aspects associated with waste prevention. A postal survey of 158 respondents provided empirical support for eight of 12 hypotheses. The proposed structural equation indicates that personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main predictors and that, unlike the case of recycling, subjective norms have a weak influence on WPB. It also suggests that, since social norms have not presented a direct influence, WPB is likely to be influenced by a concern for the environment and the community as well by perceptions of moral obligation and inconvenience. Results also proved that recycling and waste prevention represent different dimensions of waste management behaviour requiring particular approaches to increase individuals' engagement in future policies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2014

Monte Carlo study of efficiency roll-off of phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes: Evidence for dominant role of triplet-polaron quenching

We present an advanced molecular-scale organic light-emitting diode (OLED) model, integrating both electronic and excitonic processes. Using this model, we can reproduce the measured efficiency roll-off for prototypical phosphorescent OLED stacks based on the green dye tris[2-phenylpyridine]iridium (Ir(ppy){sub 3}) and the red dye octaethylporphine platinum (PtOEP) and study the cause of the roll-off as function of the current density. Both the voltage versus current density characteristics and roll-off agree well with experimental data. Surprisingly, the results of the simulations lead us to conclude that, contrary to what is often assumed, not triplet-triplet annihilation but triplet-polaron quenching is the dominant mechanism causing the roll-off under realistic operating conditions. Simulations for devices with an optimized recombination profile, achieved by carefully tuning the dye trap depth, show that it will be possible to fabricate OLEDs with a drastically reduced roll-off. It is envisaged that J{sub 90}, the current density at which the efficiency is reduced to 90%, can be increased by almost one order of magnitude as compared to the experimental state-of-the-art.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2017

Feedback control design for non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U using TRANSP

This paper examines a method for real-time control of non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U by using TRANSP, a time-dependent integrated modeling code for prediction and interpretive analysis of tokamak experimental data, as a simulator. The actuators considered for control in this work are the six neutral beam sources and the plasma boundary shape. To understand the response of the plasma current, stored energy, and central safety factor to these actuators and to enable systematic design of control algorithms, simulations were run in which the actuators were modulated and a linearized dynamic response model was generated. A multi-variable model-based control scheme that accounts for the coupling and slow dynamics of the system while mitigating the effect of actuator limitations was designed and simulated. Simulations show that modest changes in the outer gap and heating power can improve the response time of the system, reject perturbations, and track target values of the controlled values.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of UMI Chemical Work

Our initial work for the Urban Modeling Integration (UMI) project was to validate the QUIC model dense gas dispersion of chlorine advection up a ramp. The validation task was to use QUIC to model an experiment done in a wind tunnel. Naturally the QUIC model uses a slumping cylindrical model where inside the cylinder the gas is treated as dense but outside ideal. In trying to validate using the wind tunnel experiment, due to the scale of the wind tunnel experiment and ramp, The model formed a very clear, discrete, concentration barrier at the edge of the cylinder that likely doesn’t line up well with the real dense gas advection/diffusion. This effect is much less noticeable at a larger scale such as an instantaneous release of a 25 ton tank.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing permafrost soil active layer dynamics and sensitivity to landscape spatial heterogeneity in Alaska

An important feature of the Arctic is large spatial heterogeneity in active layer conditions, which is generally poorly represented by global models. In this study, we developed a spatially integrated modelling and analysis framework combining field observations, local scale (~ 50 m) active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture maps derived from airborne low frequency (L + P-band) radar measurements, and global satellite environmental observations to investigate the ALT sensitivity to recent climate trends and landscape heterogeneity in Alaska. Model simulated ALT results show good correspondence with in-situ measurements in higher permafrost probability (PP ≥ 70 %) areas (n = 33, R = 0.60, mean bias = 1.58 cm, RMSE = 20.32 cm). The model results also reveal widespread ALT deepening since 2001, with smaller ALT increases in northern Alaska (mean trend = 0.32 ± 1.18 cm yr -1 ) and much larger increases (> 3 cm yr -1 ) across interior and southern Alaska. The positive ALT trend coincides with regional warming and a longer snow-free season (R = 0.60 ± 0.32). Uncertainty in the spatial and vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) was found to be the most important factor affecting model ALT accuracy. Here, potential improvements in characterizing SOC heterogeneity, including better spatial sampling of soil conditions and advances in remote sensing of SOC and soil moisture, will enable more accurate predictions of permafrost active layer conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Systems Engineering and Integration for Advanced Life Support System and HST

Systems engineering (SE) discipline has revolutionized the way engineers and managers think about solving issues related to design of complex systems: With continued development of state-of-the-art technologies, systems are becoming more complex and therefore, a systematic approach is essential to control and manage their integrated design and development. This complexity is driven from integration issues. In this case, subsystems must interact with one another in order to achieve integration objectives, and also achieve the overall system's required performance. Systems engineering process addresses these issues at multiple levels. It is a technology and management process dedicated to controlling all aspects of system life cycle to assure integration at all levels. The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) project serves as the systems engineering and integration function for the Human Support Technology (HST) program. AIM provides means for integrated test facilities and personnel for performance trade studies, analyses, integrated models, test results, and validated requirements of the integration of HST. The goal of AIM is to address systems-level integration issues for exploration missions. It will use an incremental systems integration approach to yield technologies, baselines for further development, and possible breakthrough concepts in the areas of technological and organizational interfaces, total information flow, system wide controls, technical synergism, mission operations protocols and procedures, and human-machine interfaces.

Kamarani, Ali K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

NASA NTRS2023

Digital Engineering Design Center (DEDC): Modelling an ISRU System

The DEDC provides immersive project-based learning on digital engineering toolsets and processes supporting NASA’s digital transformation goals: - Digital Engineering uses authoritative sources of systems' data and models as a continuum across disciplines to support integrated digital approach life cycle activities from concept through disposal. - The digital environment provided includes the state-of-the-art digital engineering suite, Siemens Xcelerator. The pilot project is developing an end-to-end integrated model of an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system for commodities production: - ISRU uses local resources to provide mission consumables to enable a sustainable Moon or Mars surface presence. - The final digital twin product will include a methanation reactor, condenser, and electrolyzer subsystem.

Digital Engineering Design Center↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Launch System: CLVTOPS Toolchain for SLS Liftoff Separation Analysis

This presentation showcases the unique technical capabilities of the CLVTOPS multi-body flight dynamics tool chain developed by Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for analyzing NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) liftoff events. The CLVTOPS tool chain integrates high-fidelity simulations, geometric algorithms, advanced data analytics, and post-flight telemetry to demonstrate positive clearance between separating bodies and inform design decisions that enhance mission reliability. Proper liftoff separation is crucial to the success of the launch vehicle’s mission; vehicle impacts with the launch tower and supporting components incur a heightened risk of mission failure. For liftoff analysis, the CLVTOPS tool chain enables the integration of vehicle, launch pad, and environmental input models for the investigation of key clearance effectors. Furthermore, a novel capability of the CLVTOPS tool chain allows for verification and validation of trajectory reconstruction via photogrammetric imagery analysis. The following sections will walk through the tool chain, SLS liftoff ground rules and assumptions, model integration, pre-flight verification, and post-flight validation of the Artemis I mission liftoff event.

CLVTOPS↗