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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of near-field and far-field aerosol dispersion for microreactors

The current paper presents a simulation-based analysis of aerosol dispersion in the near-field and far-field of a generic, conceptual microreactor operating at pressures close to the ambient pressure; therefore, in the event of an accident that causes radionuclide leakage from the microreactor containment, the radionuclide particles are less likely to travel too far from the reactor, as opposed to conventional reactors. Accordingly, the presented work provides estimates of average and 95-percentile values of the relative effluent concentration. A parametric study is then performed to narrow down the parameters which affect the aerosol dispersion characteristics most significantly. Simulations were performed in the computer code ARCON96, and the parameters found to affect aerosol dispersion characteristics are the atmospheric stability class, and the distance between the release point and the receptor. It is recommended that the computer code RADTRAD be used to calculate actual dosage over distance, using the outputs from ARCON96 as inputs, along with reactor-specific core term inventories. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

LANL studies of ESD spark energy discharge through September 2019

Two concentric-sphere apparatuses were used to measure the energies deposited by electric sparks through air to calibrated loads. Both sets of spheres had clean, uninsulated metal surfaces. The 127-mm diameter pair of spheres had a gap of 10 mm and a capacitance of 52 pF. The maximum energy stored on these spheres was 12 mJ and the maximum energy delivered to the 50-mΩ load was 11 µJ, with or without inductance. This load energy amounted to 0.09% of the available input energy; the remainder of the input energy was expended in forming the spark. The second set of spheres was 330 mm in diameter with a gap of 14 mm and a capacitance of 240 pF. The maximum energy stored on these spheres was 71 mJ and the maximum energy delivered to the 50-mΩ load was 150 µJ without added inductance. This load energy was 0.27% of the input energy; again, the remainder of the input energy was expended in forming the spark. The inclusion of 250 nH and 500 nH inductances in the discharge path of the smaller spheres caused the current discharges to resonate, but had little effect on the maximum energies deposited in the loads. At the time of writing, inductances had not yet been added to the larger spheres. The magnitudes of the observed spark discharges were stochastic, so more than 1200 tests were required to develop the statistical bounds of the spark behavior, i.e., to estimate the worst case (highest likely) energy depositions in the loads. The action integrals of the current discharges $∫ i^2dt$ were found to be approximately independent of the load resistances for loads of less than ~1 Ω. Hence the energy deposition scaled with resistance as 207 µJ/Ω and 2.93 mJ/Ω for the two apparatuses.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Tests for Diagnosing Fission Source Convergence and Undersampling in Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations [Slides]

There is a very strong need for statistical testing to determine fission source convergence in Monte Carlo criticality calculations. Automation of such tests will greatly streamline and support the work carried out by NCS practitioners. Recent R&D work has shown that no single statistical test for convergence is sufficiently reliable, robust, and “guaranteed.” However, a combination of several standard statistical tests for the similarity of distributions, coupled with a high-fidelity estimate of the fission-matrix source is sufficiently robust, reliable, and repeatable that convergence can be “guaranteed.” During the course of the EG-AMCT studies, a number of statistical metrics and tests were proposed for diagnosing clustering and undersampling. None of these was robust and reliable enough for practical use in production codes. However, the expert group efforts came close. Some recent R&D work stemming from those past efforts has been very successful and promising. This Sub-Group will provide international input and collaboration on the development and implementation of statistical tests for convergence, with the primary goal of having the MC codes automatically detect convergence (or lack thereof). Newly proposed statistical tests to detect undersampling (after convergence) will also be reviewed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Uncertainty-Informed and High-Fidelity Performance Forecasting Framework for Heliostat Fields

Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) tower systems employ heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver, which then transfers the heat either directly to a thermal process (e.g., steam production) or to a thermal energy storage system for future use. Heliostat fields compose a significant proportion of the project costs of a CST tower system and the performance of the heliostats determines a plant's productivity at a given location. While CST characterization tools such as SolarPILOT and System Advisor Model (SAM) include a large collection of inputs that influence the performance of a CST tower system, many are uncertain prior to the development of the project and may have a significant impact on the overall energy delivery and profitability of a project; moreover, the fidelity of these models under default conditions may be insufficient to determine the value of component improvements such as those under development in the Heliostat Consortium. This work introduces a Monte Carlo simulation framework that incorporates uncertainty in key performance parameters to generate confidence intervals and percentile estimates for a CST solar field's energy delivery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synthetic Evaluation of Infrasonic Multipole Waveform Inversion

Acoustic source inversions estimate the mass flow rate of volcanic explosions or yield of chemical explosions and provide insight into potential source directionality. However, the limitations of applying these methods to complex sources and their ability to resolve a stable solution have not been investigated in detail. We perform synthetic infrasound waveform inversions that use 3-D Green’s functions for a variety of idealized and realistic deployment scenarios using both a flat plane and Yasur volcano, Vanuatu as examples. We investigate the ability of various scenarios to retrieve the input source functions and relative amplitudes for monopole and multipole (monopole and dipole) inversions. Infrasound waveform inversions appear to be a robust method to quantify mass flow rates from simple sources (monopole) using deployments of infrasound sensors placed around a source, but care should be taken when analyzing and interpreting results from more complex acoustic sources (multipole) that have significant directional components. In the examples we consider the solution is stable for monopole inversions with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than five and the dipole component is small. For most scenarios investigated, the vertical dipole component of the multipole explosion source is poorly constrained and can impact the ability to recover the other source term components. Because multipole inversions are ill-posed for many deployments, a low residual does not necessarily mean the proper source vector has been recovered. Synthetic studies are able to help investigate the limitations and place bounds on information that may be missing using monopole and multipole inversions for potentially directional sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sign-OPT: A Query-Efficient Hard-label Adversarial Attack

We study the most practical problem setup for evaluating adversarial robustness of a machine learning system with limited access: the hard-label black-box attack setting for generating adversarial examples, where limited model queries are allowed and only the decision is provided to a queried data input. Several algorithms have been proposed for this problem but they typically require huge amount (>20,000) of queries for attacking one example. Among them, one of the state-of-the-art approaches (Cheng et al., 2019) showed that hard-label attack can be modeled as an optimization problem where the objective function can be evaluated by binary search with additional model queries, thereby a zeroth order optimization algorithm can be applied. In this paper, we adopt the same optimization formulation but propose to directly estimate the sign of gradient at any direction instead of the gradient itself, which enjoys the benefit of single query. Using this single query oracle for retrieving sign of directional derivative, we develop a novel query-efficient Sign-OPT approach for hard-label black-box attack. We provide a convergence analysis of the new algorithm and conduct experiments on several models on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. We find that Sign-OPT attack consistently requires 5X to 10X fewer queries when compared to the current state-of-the-art approaches, and usually converges to an adversarial example with smaller perturbation.

Cheng, Minhao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parameter inference from event ensembles and the top-quark mass

One of the key tasks of any particle collider is measurement. In practice, this is often done by fitting data to a simulation, which depends on many parameters. Sometimes, when the effects of varying different parameters are highly correlated, a large ensemble of data may be needed to resolve parameter-space degeneracies. An important example is measuring the top-quark mass, where other physical and unphysical parameters in the simulation must be profiled when fitting the top-quark mass parameter. We compare four different methodologies for top-quark mass measurement: a classical histogram fit similar to one commonly used in experiment augmented by soft-drop jet grooming; a 2D profile likelihood fit with a nuisance parameter; a machine-learning method called DCTR; and a linear regression approach, either using a least-squares fit or with a dense linearly-activated neural network. Despite the fact that individual events are totally uncorrelated, we find that the linear regression methods work most effectively when we input an ensemble of events sorted by mass, rather than training them on individual events. Although all methods provide robust extraction of the top-quark mass parameter, the linear network does marginally best and is remarkably simple. For the top study, we conclude that the Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty on current extractions of the top-quark mass from LHC data can be reduced significantly (by perhaps a factor of 2) using networks trained on sorted event ensembles. More generally, machine learning from ensembles for parameter estimation has broad potential for collider physics measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

DUET - Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport: A mechanistic model of leaf litter and herbaceous spatial distribution based on tree canopy structure

Heterogeneity in surface fuels produced by overstory trees and understory vegetation is a major driver of fire behavior and ecosystem dynamics. Previous attempts at predicting tree leaf and needle litter accumulation over time have been constrained in scope to probabilistic models that consider a limited number of key factors influencing tree litter dispersal patterns and decomposition processes. Here we present a mechanistic model for estimating variation in surface fuels called the Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport (DUET). DUET uses a pre-generated voxelated canopy array and distributes the leaf litter from the trees in an elliptical shape based on tree species characteristics, wind data, and location-specific features. DUET then calculates grass growth between trees and around the litter patterns and sets moisture levels based on relative humidity. In this study, we use DUET to simulate spatial distributions of leaf litter and illustrate model sensitivity to several parameters, providing inputs for testing fuel spatial heterogeneity impacts on fire behavior using process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complex multicomponent spectrum analysis with Deep Neural Network

Here, in this paper, we present the use of deep neural networks to estimate physical parameters from complex optical emission spectra of the D β /H β transition. Specifically, we focus on estimating the radio frequency electric field vector of the lower hybrid wave and isotope ratio within the scrape-off-layer plasma of the WEST tokamak. Fitting the spectral data using a traditional non-linear least squares analysis requires many free parameters and is computationally expensive, rendering the data unusable for real-time control. By implementing relatively small neural networks, the physical parameters can be directly extracted from the spectral data with reasonable accuracy in a few milliseconds. The deep neural network prediction can serve as input for a reduced model using least-squares fitting or for real-time control. We show that deep neural networks can be an effective tool for analyzing complex multicomponent spectra, providing a speedup of more than 10 5 times compared to least residual analysis, with an accuracy of 0.5% for the isotope ratio, and 0.09 kV/cm and 0.38 kV/cm for the RF radial and poloidal electric field respectively.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of spin frustration in an Fe III 7 cluster using a combination of computational, experimental, and magnetostructural correlation methods

The synthesis, structure, and magnetic properties are reported for [Fe 7 O 3 (O 2 C t Bu) 9 (mda) 3 (H 2 O) 3 ] ( 1 ), where mdaH 2 is N -methyldiethanolamine. 1 was prepared from the reaction of [Fe 3 O(O 2 C t Bu) 6 (H 2 O) 3 ](NO 3 ) with mdaH 2 in a 1:~3 ratio in MeCN. The core of 1 consists of a central octahedral Fe III ion held within a non-planar Fe 6 loop by three μ 3 -O 2- and three μ 2 -RO - arms from the three mda 2- chelates. Variable-temperature dc and ac magnetic susceptibility studies revealed dominant antiferromagnetic coupling, leading to a ground state spin of S = 5 / 2 . The ground state was confirmed by a fit of magnetization data collected in the 0.1–7.0 T and 1.8–10.0 K ranges. The four Fe 2 pairwise exchange parameters ( J 1 - J 4 ) were estimated by independent methods: theoretical calculations using either broken symmetry energy differences (-46.3, -16.2, -3.9, and - 28.1 cm -1 , respectively) or Green’s function approximation methods (-41.4, -14.8, -13.2, and - 24.7 cm -1 ), and a magnetostructural correlation (MSC) previously developed for high nuclearity Fe III /O complexes (-39.5, -13.8, -6.7, and - 23.5 cm -1 ). Additionally, the J 1 - J 4 obtained from the MSC and theoretical methods were used with the program PHI to both simulate χ M T vs T as well as to serve as reasonable input values to fit the experimental data (-41.0, -11.4, -5.0, and - 27.3 cm -1 ). Analysis of the J ij led to identification of the spin frustration effects operative and the resultant spin vector alignments at each Fe III ion, thus allowing for the rationalization of the experimental ground state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the Impact of Seep Methane Oxidation on Ocean pH and Dissolved Inorganic Radiocarbon Along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight

Ongoing ocean warming can release methane (CH 4 ) currently stored in ocean sediments asfree gas and gas hydrates. Once dissolved in ocean waters, this CH 4 can be oxidized to carbon dioxide(CO 2 ). While it has been hypothesized that the CO 2 produced from aerobic CH4oxidation could enhanceocean acidification, a previous study conducted in Hudson Canyon shows that CH 4 oxidation has a smallshort-term influence on ocean pH and dissolved inorganic radiocarbon. Here we expand upon thatinvestigation to assess the impact of widespread CH 4 seepage on CO 2 chemistry and possible accumulationof this carbon injection along 234 km of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight. Consistent with the estimates fromHudson Canyon, we demonstrate that a small fraction of ancient CH 4 -derived carbon is being assimilatedinto the dissolved inorganic radiocarbon (mean fraction of 0.5 ± 0.4%). The areas with the highest fractionsof ancient carbon coincide with elevated CH 4 concentration and active gas seepage. This suggests thataerobic CH 4 oxidation has a greater influence on the dissolved inorganic pool in areas where CH 4 concentrations are locally elevated, instead of displaying a cumulative effect downcurrent from widespreadgroupings of CH 4 seeps. Afirst-order approximation of the input rate of ancient-derived dissolved inorganiccarbon (DIC) into the waters overlying the northern U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight further suggests thatoxidation of ancient CH 4 -derived carbon is not negligible on the global scale and could contribute todeepwater acidification over longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

REopt Lite User Manual

REopt Lite evaluates the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics, wind, combined heat and power, and electric and thermal storage at commercial and small industrial sites. It allows building owners to identify the system sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the site’s life cycle cost of energy. REopt Lite also estimates the amount of time on-site generation and storage can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage and allows the user the choice of optimizing for energy resilience. It is primarily used to inform project development decisions and to support research on the factors that drive project feasibility for market development and policy analysis. It is available through a web interface, application programing interface, and open-source code. This user manual provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework

In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗