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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment

This chapter considers issues concerning uncertainty associated with modeling and its use within agricultural impact assessments. Information about uncertainty is important for those who develop assessment methods, since that information indicates the need for, and the possibility of, improvement of the methods and databases. Such information also allows one to compare alternative methods. Information about the sources of uncertainties is an aid in prioritizing further work on the impact assessment method. Uncertainty information is also necessary for those who apply assessment methods, e.g., for projecting climate change impacts on agricultural production and for stakeholders who want to use the results as part of a decision-making process (e.g., for adaptation planning). For them, uncertainty information indicates the degree of confidence they can place in the simulated results. Quantification of uncertainty also provides stakeholders with an important guideline for making decisions that are robust across the known uncertainties. Thus, uncertainty information is important for any decision based on impact assessment. Ultimately, we are interested in knowledge about uncertainty so that information can be used to achieve positive outcomes from agricultural modeling and impact assessment.

damage assessment↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Effects of Hygrothermal Aging on the Impact Penetration Resistance of Triaxially Braided Composites

An experimental study was conducted to measure the effects of long term hygrothermal aging on the impact penetration resistance of triaxially braided polymer composites. Flat panels of three different materials were subjected to repeated cycles of high and low temperature and high and low humidity for two years. Samples of the panels were periodically tested under impact loading during the two year time period. The purpose of the study was to identify and quantify any degradation in impact penetration resistance of these composites under cyclic temperature and humidity conditions experienced by materials in the fan section of commercial gas turbine engines for a representative aircraft flight cycle. The materials tested consisted of Toray ® T700S carbon fibers in a 2D triaxial braid with three different resins, Cycom® PR520, a toughened resin, Hercules® 3502, an untoughened resin and EPON 862, intermediate between the two. The fiber preforms consisted of a quasi-isotropic 0/+60/-60 braid with 24K tows in the axial direction and 12K tows in the bias directions. The composite panels were manufactured using a resin transfer molding process producing panels with a thickness of 0.125 inches. The materials were tested in their as-processed condition and again after one year and two years of aging (1.6 years in the case of E862). The aging process involved subjecting the test panels to two cycles per day of high and low temperature and high and low humidity. A temperature range of -60degF to 250degF and a humidity range of 0 to 85% rh was used to simulate extreme conditions for composite components in the fan section of a commercial gas turbine engine. Additional testing was conducted on the as-processed PR520 composite under cryogenic conditions. After aging there was some change in the failure pattern, but there was no reduction in impact penetration threshold for any of the three systems, and in the case of the 3502 system, a significant increase in penetration threshold. There was also an increase in the penetration resistance of the PR520 system impacted under cryogenic conditions.

composite↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Hydrological models↗
NASA NTRS2017

Correlation of the Largest Craters, Stratigraphic Impact Signatures, and Extinction Events Over the Past 250 Myr

The six largest known impact craters of the last 250 Myr (greater than or equal to 70 km in diameter), which are capable of causing significant environmental damage, coincide with four times of recognized extinction events at 36 (with 2 craters), 66, and 145 Myr ago, and possibly with two provisional extinction events at 168 and 215 Myr ago. These impact cratering events are accompanied by layers in the geologic record interpreted as impact ejecta. Chance occurrences of impacts and extinctions can be rejected at confidence levels of 99.96 percent (for 4 impact/extinctions) to 99.99 percent (for 6 impact/extinctions). These results argue that several extinction events over the last 250 Myr may be related to the effects of large-body impacts.

Extinctions; Impact craters; Ejecta layers↗
NASA NTRS2014

Identification of Flights for Cost-Efficient Climate Impact Reduction

The aircraft-induced climate impact has drawn attention in recent years. Aviation operations affect the environment mainly through the release of carbon-dioxide, nitrogen-oxides, and by the formation of contrails. Recent research has shown that altering trajectories can reduce aviation environmental cost by reducing Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential, a climate assessment metric that adapts a linear system for modeling the global temperature response to aviation emissions and contrails. However, these methods will increase fuel consumption that leads to higher fuel costs imposed on airlines. The goal of this work is to identify ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact reduction outweighs the increase in operational cost on an individual aircraft basis. Environmental cost is quanti ed using the monetary social cost of carbon. The increase in operational cost is considering cost of additional fuel usage only. For this paper, an algorithm has been developed that modi es the trajectories of ights to evaluate the e ect of environ- mental cost and operational cost of ights in the United States National Airspace System. The algorithm identi es ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact can be reduced and modi es their trajectories to achieve maximum environmental net bene t, which is the di erence between reduction in environmental cost and additional operational cost. The result shows on a selected day, 16% of the ights among eight major airlines, or 2,043 ights, can achieve environmental net bene t using weather forecast data, resulting in net bene t of around $500,000. The result also suggests that the long-haul ights would be better candidates for cost-ecient climate impact reduction than the short haul ights. The algorithm will help to identify the characteristics of ights that are capable of applying cost-ecient climate impact reduction strategy.

climate impact reduction↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Twinned magnetite in granitic samples from the Siljan impact structure, Sweden

Impact cratering is a ubiquitous process throughout the solar system and has played a key role for the geologic evolution of Earth and other planets [1]. Magnetic anomalies are common characteristics of impact craters [2], so understanding how magnetite (Fe23+Fe2+O42-), an important magnetic carrier in both terrestrial and extraterrestrial rocks, is affected by shock waves, especially structurally and magnetically, is crucial. Magnetic minerals have been studied to gain insight into the geologic evolution of Mars, with specific focus including understanding the Martian crustal structure and the oxidization state of Martian rocks (e.g., [3,4,5]). Shock waves permanently alter the intrinsic magnetic properties of rocks (e.g., [6]), as do twinning in natural environments with less extreme P/T conditions [7]. In fact, pressure conditions induced by impacts have been suggested to explain demagnetization signatures observed around Martian impact basins [8]. It is still poorly understood what effects shock has on the crystallographic structure of magnetite and thus it’s intrinsic magnetic properties, and , how that affects the bulk magnetic properties of rocks (e.g., [9]). Limited experimental studies have investigated the effects of shock compression on magnetite, especially with the aim of describing crystallographic deformation (e.g., [9] and references therein). In this work we report preliminary results of an investigation of microstructures in magnetite, an “unconventional” mineral in shock studies, in granitic samples from the ca. 380 Ma ~52 km-in-diameter Siljan impact structure, located in south-central Sweden.

shock metamorphism↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Controlled Impact Experiments to Understand the Effects of Cohesive Blocks on the Cratering Process

When considering large-scale impact events that occur in the gravity-regime, smallscale target heterogeneities (on order of the projectile diameter) are anticipated to have a minimal effect on the cratering process and are therefore not considered in scaling relations [1-3]. Such heterogeneities and other details of the target's strength and structure, however, become increasingly influential as the magnitude of the impact decreases [4]. At the scale of craters forming mostly in regolith on the Moon (< a few meters), for example, target properties such as cohesive strength, density, porosity, and friction have more leverage than gravity to influence the resultant crater dimensions [5]. Further complications beyond just target properties can manifest in many forms, such as subsurface layers [6]; the presence of random, competent blocks [7]; buried lenses of impact melt; and/or pockets of regolith compacted or indurated to varying degrees by previous impacts. Summing the total effect of target properties and any additional heterogeneities for integration into scaling relations is not straightforward, as each individual parameter will have unequal, and so far, unquantified, effects on the final crater. Even when craters are produced under a best-case scenario of controlled laboratory conditions, understanding the entire relevant parameter space can be a formidable task, and deconvolution of all the contributing factors can be a complex undertaking. To begin the process of quantifying such effects, we are conducting an extensive series of impact experiments to build a framework for the interpretation of craters observed on the characteristically complex surfaces throughout the solar system. Here we present the first, and simplest, configuration to be examined in this multi-year experimental campaign: one in which solitary, cohesive blocks are placed in the path of the projectile’s trajectory at different burial depths in granular, sand targets. Among the variables to be investigated in this configuration are the influence of block size, compressive strength, and burial depth.

impact crater↗
NASA NTRS2022

Modeling Meteoroid Impacts on the Juno Spacecraft

Events which meet certain criteria from star-tracker images on board the Juno spacecraft have been proposed to be due to interplanetary dust particle impacts on its solar arrays. These events have been suggested to be caused by particles with diameters larger than 10 μm. Here, we compare the reported event rates to expected dust-impact rates using dynamical meteoroid models for the four most abundant meteoroid/dust populations in the inner solar system. We find that the dust-impact rates predicted by dynamical meteoroid models are not compatible with either the Juno observations in terms of the number of star-tracker events per day, or with the variations of dust flux on Juno's solar panels with time and position in the solar system. For example, the rate of star-tracker events on Juno's antisunward surfaces is the largest during a period in which Juno is expected to experience the peak impact fluxes on the opposite, sunward hemisphere. We also investigate the hypothesis of dust leaving the Martian Hill sphere originating either from the surface of Mars itself or from one of its moons. We do not find such a hypothetical source to be able to reproduce the star-tracker event-rate variations observed by Juno. We conclude that the star-tracker events observed by Juno are unlikely to be the result of instantaneous impacts from the zodiacal cloud.

Interplanetary dust↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Thermoplastic Composites: Testing and Modeling

Thermoplastic Composites (TPCs) are being increasingly considered for aerospace applications given their faster manufacturing cycles and lower cost. The NASA High-Rate Composite Aircraft Manufacturing (HiCAM) project aims to evaluate and mature thermoplastic manufacturing technologies to achieve a 4X – 6X increase in the production rate of Next Generation Single Aisle (NGSA) commercial aircraft. Within the purview of the NASA HiCAM project, this work investigates the response of thermoplastic composites under High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) conditions. HEDI tests were conducted on panels fabricated with a carbon fiber reinforced low melt semi-crystalline resin TC1225 LMPAEK T700G (T700/LMPAEK) material system. A blunt metal projectile was chosen as the impactor which impacted the T700/LMPAEK panels over a range of impact velocities imparted by a gas gun test setup. As expected, lower velocity impacts caused the projectile to rebound, whereas higher velocity impacts resulted in the projectile penetrating the test panels. For the test cases in which the projectile rebounded, the predominant damage modes recorded with Ultrasonic (UT) scans included interlaminar delaminations which exhibited a “rotating fan” like structure when viewed in the through-thickness direction. Additionally, the dynamic deflection of the center point of the back face of the test panels and the velocity of the projectile was also measured during the test. Finite element models were developed to model a test case in which the projectile rebounded. These models were developed using LS-DYNA® wherein the primary objective was to evaluate the ability of the material model MAT299 to capture the dynamic response and damage modes in the T700/LMPAEK test panels. MAT299 is a Deformation Gradient Decomposition (DGD) based Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) material model. The interlaminar delaminations were modeled using the cohesive contact formulation available within LS-DYNA, wherein the mixed-mode fracture is captured via the Benzegaggh-Kenane (B-K) mode-dependent fracture energy interpolation law. The above-mentioned modeling methods have mostly been applied to thermoset composites and adapting them to TPCs involves addressing challenges associated with appropriately representing material behavior. Therefore, the proposed paper would discuss the systematic approach taken to adapt thermoset composites modeling practices for applications to TPCs, while appropriately addressing material behavior. The proposed paper would show that the predicted back face center point deflection correlated reasonably well with experimental data and the peak deflection was predicted to be within 5% of the experimental measurements. The projectile rebound velocity, while predicted to be higher than the experimental measurement, was within reasonable bounds. Additionally, it will be shown that the predicted delamination shapes were in reasonable agreement with experimental data.

Composite Materials↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Effects of Impactor Shape on the Compression After Impact Strength of Carbon/Epoxy Face Sheet Aluminum Honeycomb Core Sandwich Structure

This study presents experimental results of compression after impact (CAI) strength testing of aluminum core sandwich structure with carbon/epoxy face sheets impacted at three different energies with either a 12.7 mm hemispherical, 24.5 mm hemispherical or sharp tip impactor. This study was undertaken to verify whether design allowables typically generated by blunt (hemispherical) impactors may be valid in ‘real world” applications where an impact may not be by a blunt object of a specific size. Results of practical interest in this study were that the visual damage was much easier to see for the sharp impactor, the damage size as detected by thermography was smaller for the sharp impactor for a given impact energy and dent depth was greater for the sharp impactor. The CAI strength results showed that the sharp impactor gave about the same CAI strength values at all three impact energy levels used. The larger hemispherical impactor gave slightly higher CAI results than the smaller blunt impactor. Overall it was deemed difficult to develop a CAI allowable that would cover all impactor shapes with any fidelity and thus using a lower bound strain allowable is suggested.

compression after impact (CAI)↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic and Jobs Impacts of Point-Source Carbon Capture in Cement Industry – Case Study

The cement industry accounts for an estimated 8% of global CO2 emissions, which surpasses that of the entire aviation sector. In contrast with other industries, where CO2 emissions can be drastically reduced via electrification or fuels substitution, cement production releases CO2 as part of its process, during the calcination of carbonates to yield oxides. Thus, point-source carbon capture has become a key technology in the cement industry’s decarbonization. Apart from the expected environmental benefits, point-source carbon capture in the cement industry can yield important economic benefits and create jobs. The objective of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the economic and workforce impacts associated with the construction and operation of a point-source carbon capture retrofit of an existing cement production facility, using as a basis the data from a front-end engineering design (FEED) study to install a 3.9 million metric tons per year (Mtpy) CO2 capture facility at Holcim Ste Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, United States of America. The advanced carbon capture technology used in this FEED study was Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ FG carbon capture technology. The study evaluated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of the construction, operation, and maintenance activities of the project over its lifespan. It also covered how the project will generate new jobs, their nature, and quantity, along with strategies to prepare the workforce. To perform this study, construction, operation, and maintenance cost estimates, as well as construction and operation staffing plans from the FEED study were input into IMPLAN version 7.5 software, licensed by IMPLAN Group LLC (Huntersville, VC), to predict the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the project using industry multipliers from the software. Additionally, recruitment strategies were developed for hiring individuals who belong to groups that are historically underserved or underrepresented, as well as anticipated recruitment of workers from the local community (whether training will be required or if the skills are associated with an existing labor force). The analysis estimated that the construction and operation of the carbon capture at Holcim Ste. Genevive will result in over 24 thousand work-years of job opportunities, close to USD 10 billion of economic impacts, including over USD 460 million of tax revenue. These results encompass the direct, indirect, and induced effects. A strategy to maximize hiring from the project and neighboring counties was developed, leveraging training agreements with local trade groups and universities. The result of this study can be used for a strategic preliminary assessment of the potential regional economic and job impacts of retrofitting existing cement plants with point source carbon systems, and its methodology can be replicated to individual projects to aid in planning and workforce development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

What's on the menu? Examining native apex‐ and invasive meso‐predator diets to understand impacts on ecosystems

Abstract Understanding how carnivores impact ecological communities is essential for guiding effective management actions and conserving biodiversity. Quantifying predators' diets, including prey selectivity, allows for the assessment of the relative effects native and invasive predators may have on prey populations. In Australia, populations of a native, terrestrial apex predator, the dingo Canis dingo/C. familiaris , and introduced and invasive subordinate mesopredators, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and feral cat Felis catus , co‐occur, but there is limited understanding of their relative impacts on native and invasive prey in different ecosystems. To assess the possible effects of dingoes, foxes and cats on prey, we examined their diet and prey selectivity across a ~10,000 km 2 semi‐arid mallee ecosystem. Using macroscopic scat analysis, we identified strong dietary niche separation. Larger‐bodied dingoes primarily consumed large marsupial herbivores, whereas foxes and cats primarily consumed smaller prey, including introduced and native rodents and birds. Foxes had the broadest diet, and the greatest dietary overlap with cats ( = 0.81), compared with dingoes ( = 0.50) or between dingoes and cats ( = 0.36). Livestock were identified in 2% of dingo and 7% of fox scats. Cats and foxes consumed more than 15 times the volume of small native mammals compared with dingoes, including threatened species such as fat‐tailed dunnarts Sminthopsis crassicaudata . Cats and foxes also selectively consumed small mammals relative to their estimated availability and consumed fewer large mammals. In contrast, dingoes consumed fewer birds and more echidnas relative to their availability. Our results suggest limited intraguild competition within this semi‐arid ecosystem, as dingoes are primarily exerting top‐down pressure on large herbivores, whereas invasive mesopredators are disproportionately impacting smaller prey, including threatened native mammals. Practical implication . Our findings suggest that ongoing conservation management of dingoes, red foxes and feral cats must consider the variation in diets, impacts on prey and ecological roles of these different predator species, and avoid indiscriminate lethal control methods. Quantifying actual, rather than assumed, impacts of predators on threatened native species, large herbivores and livestock is essential to achieve effective and integrated ecosystem management.

Mason, Rachel T. [School of Life and Environmental↗
DOE OSTI2021

A simplified integrated framework for predicting the economic impacts of feedstock variations in a catalytic fast pyrolysis conversion process

Feedstock attributes of lignocellulosic biomass, such as particle size, compositional makeup, and moisture content, can vary substantially even within pre-processed materials and have a significant effect on conversion in fast pyrolysis-based processes. However, the economic impacts of these attributes are not well understood. To address this, biomass deconstruction phenomena captured with a versatile particle-scale simulation were linked to techno-economic impacts via reduced-order models. Parametric analysis of the particle-scale model, which was validated using literature data, was used in combination with multiple linear regression models to develop correlations between feedstock attributes and yields of pyrolysis oil, gas, and char. Yields were then correlated with the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) using a techno-economic model, bridging the gap between physics-based biomass conversion simulations and predictions of MFSP for a catalytic fast-pyrolysis process. Empirical correlations derived from the literature regarding the impact of mineral matter (ash) on oil yield were also considered. The model correlations deployed in the integrated framework capture the impacts of variation in feedstock attributes on the MFSP. Variations in ash were shown to have the biggest impact, varying MFSP by -13%/+22% due to catalytic effects and lower relative amounts of convertible lignocellulosic material. It was also found that, if ash can be controlled to low levels, the increased extractives in forest residues can help compensate for some yield losses associated with increased ash. As a result, other inputs considered (particle size, moisture content, and reactor temperature) had relatively negligible effects on process economics within the ranges analyzed considering particle-scale effects alone.

BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of quantitative methods to assess impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on Arctic transportation systems

Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes are transforming Arctic human- Earth systems. An integral part of these systems is mobility, which encompasses the transport of humans and goods into, out of, and between Arctic regions. Impacts of climate and socioeconomic drivers on Arctic mobility are heterogenous. Methodologies are needed to quantify these impacts in measures that can be linked with broader socioeconomic systems. This article reviews existing such methods and organizes them into a conceptual framework to understand trends and gaps in the literature. We found methods quantifying impacts of a range of climate drivers on most transportation modes present in the Arctic, but few methods focused on socioeconomic drivers. Also underrepresented were methods explicitly considering adaptive capacity of transportation systems. In conclusion, we provide insight into the data and relationships relevant to understanding impacts of Arctic change on transportation systems and how these impacts fit into broader human- Earth systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗