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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unleashing the Power of Anaerobic–Phototrophic Membrane Bioreactors for Sustainable Bioregenerative Life Support

Using the core ideals of bioregenerative life support, an anaerobic–phototrophic membrane bioreactor (APMBR) has been designed and operated at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center to treat complex wastewaters with the goal of closing water and nutrient cycles on early planetary bases. The system combined the previously operated anaerobic membrane bioreactor and the phototrophic membrane bioreactor that have been detailed in presentations at previous ICES conferences. This newly combined system is able to treat complex wastewater with completely automated controls on a small footprint. The treatment of wastes in this APMBR is as follows: (1) the waste enters the anaerobic subsystem, where solids are hydrolyzed and carbon is removed via anaerobic digestion, (2) an ultrafiltration membrane is used to separate the solids and the recovered water, (3) the effluent from the anaerobic subsystem is fed to the phototrophic subsystem on command, (4) the algae–bacteria consortium aids in nitrification in the recovered water, and (5) an ultrafiltration membrane is used to separate the algae and the final recovered water. The recovered water from the APMBR is rich in nutrients, making it a sustainable source of fertilizer for downstream hydroponic systems. This conference paper will detail the design and operation of the APMBR as a bioregenerative alternative to physical–chemical systems or bag and storage systems. In this paper, data will be presented on subsystem water quality, membrane performance, and effluent quality. Overall, the APMBR has the ability to treat wastewater using a combination of biological and filtration technologies that allow for higher removal efficiencies, low consumable use, and small footprint.

Jason A. Fischer↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact of GMI All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in the NASA GEOS Forecast System

The assimilation of cloud- and precipitation-affected ("all-sky") radiances has become an important focus of development at most numerical weather prediction centers. Efforts at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on all-sky assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances, which became operational in the GEOS real-time production system in July 2018. Implementation of the all-sky capability required several upgrades to the GEOS hybrid 4D-EnVar assimilation infrastructure including the addition of control variables for cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain and snow, enhancements to the radiative transfer model, new hybrid background and observational error models, and modified quality control and bias correction procedures. This talk describes the impact of GMI all-sky radiance assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts as determined from examination of various metrics including statistics of background departures and analysis increments, forecast skill scores, and forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) calculations. It is shown that in addition to the hydrometeors themselves, the initial wind, temperature and pressure fields all undergo significant dynamic adjustment in response to the analyzed cloud and precipitation features. Assimilation of GMI radiances leads to improved forecasts of lower tropospheric wind, temperature and humidity, especially in the tropics. The largest forecast improvements occur during the first 48 hours, with diminishing impact thereafter. However, combining GMI all-sky assimilation with improvements to the GEOS model physics as in the recent implementation of the real-time production system, extends these forecast improvements well in to the medium range. FSOI results based on a 24-hr moist global energy norm show that GMI radiances provide nearly uniform beneficial impact throughout the tropics, with more mixed impacts in the subtropics. While the overall impact of GMI is smaller than that of other, much more numerous microwave and hyperspectral infrared radiance types, its impact is among the largest of all radiance types on a per-observation basis.

Gelaro, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2020

Freeze-Thaw Cycling as a Chemical Weathering Agent on a Cold and Icy Mars

Liquid water was abundant on early Mars, but whether the climate was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting is still poorly understood. Modern climate models for Mars tend to predict a colder, icier early climate than previously imagined. In addition, ice and glaciation have been major geologic agents throughout the later Hesperian and Amazonian eras. One process that can act in such climates is repeated freezing and thawing of water on the surface and in the subsurface, and is significant because it can occur anywhere with an active layer and could have persisted for a time after liquid water was no longer stable on Mars’ surface. As freeze-thaw is the dominant mechanical weathering process in most glacial/periglacial terrains, it was likely a significant geomorphologic driver at local to regional scales during past climates, and would potentially have been most active when day-average surface temperatures exceeded 0 °C for part of the year. Indeed, freeze-thaw involving liquid water in the Amazonian is evidenced by abundant geomorphic features including polygonal ground and solifluction lobes requiring seasonal thawing. In addition to physical modification, freezing can drive solutions towards supersaturation and force dissolved solutes out as precipitates. In Mars-like terrains, dissolved solutes are typically dominated by silica. In polar regions on Earth, freeze-thaw cycles have been shown to promote deposition of silica, and freeze-thaw experiments on synthetic solutions found stable amorphous silica that built up over multiple cycles. Freeze-thaw may therefore be an important but overlooked chemical weathering process on Mars. However, our ability to assess its impact on alteration of martian terrains is majorly limited by the current lack of understanding of the alteration phases produced (and formation rates) under controlled freeze-thaw weathering of Mars-relevant materials. To address this knowledge gap, we report results from (1) freeze-thaw weathering products found at a glacial Mars analog site at the Three Sisters, Oregon, and (2) new controlled freeze-thaw experiments on basaltic material.

Scudder, N. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unlocking the Mysteries of the Moon’s Shadowed Regions

The Moon poles host large quantities of water-ice deposits in the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), which are vital for enabling sustainable human space exploration, making these regions high-priority targets for upcoming Artemis missions [1]. Unfortunately, today, the best available orbital lunar imagery [2, 3] lacks the meter-scale resolution and signal needed to understand the geomorphology and trafficability of PSRs, complicating the planning and execution of future missions seeking to explore PSRs. We have developed an image enhancement tool called HORUS (Hyper-effective nOise Removal Unet Software) [4, 5], designed to enhance LRO Narrow-Angle Camera (NAC) optical low-light imagery of permanently shadowed regions by effectively removing the CCD-related, photon, and other residual noises that corrupt the images. The tool is composed of two deep learning neural networks trained on environmental metadata and real and synthetic imagery, the latter generated by a physical noise model (LROC). We demonstrated that HORUS effectively produces low-noise, high-resolution images (~1.5m/px), achieving a 5 to 10x improvement over existing long-exposure images of PSRs. HORUS allows scientists and engineers to identify geomorphic features (e.g., craters and boulders) in shadowed regions as small as 3 meters across as well as to peek inside of small shadowed regions, for the first time. The tool was deployed and thoroughly validated for NASA's VIPER mission [6], where it was applied to 20 candidate target regions across the lunar South Pole. Additionally, we conducted different approaches to validate the resulting HORUS-processed images. With HORUS denoised images, VIPER scientists can increase their confidence on what surface features (previously unseen) exist in the shadowed regions, helping them plan rover traverses more safely and efficiently (e.g., Fig. 1) In this manuscript, we will describe how VIPER scientists are utilizing HORUS denoised images to extract new information from the terrain and increase their confidence in what surface features exist in the shadowed regions. In combination with other high-resolution images and digital elevation maps, HORUS images are helping the team analyze potential lading and science sites, as well as planning traverses more safely and efficiently (e.g., Fig. 1). Additionally, we will describe how HORUS tool unlocks a broad range of scientific and exploration applications to other Artemis and CPLS missions to the lunar poles, including (but not limited to) geomorphic analysis, change detection, surface hazard detection, and terrain relative navigation.

artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRS2001

Rheology of Diabase: Implications for Tectonics on Venus and Mars

Two important goals of our experimental investigation of the rheological behavior of diabase rocks were: (1) to determine flow laws describing their creep behavior over wide ranges of temperature, stress and strain rate and (2) to develop an understanding of the physical mechanisms by which these rocks flow under laboratory conditions. With this basis, a primary objective then was to construct constitutive equations that can be used to extrapolate from laboratory to planetary conditions. We specifically studied the rheological properties of both natural rock samples and synthetic aggregates. The former provided constraints for geologic systems, while the latter defined the relative contributions of the constituent mineral phases and avoided the influence of glass/melt found in natural samples. In addition, partially molten samples of crustal rock composition were deformed in shear to large strains (greater than 200%) important in crustal environments. The results of this research yielded essential rheological properties essential for models of crustal deformation on terrestrial planets, specifically Venus and Mars, as well as on the geodynamical evolution of these planets. Over the past three years, we also completed our investigation of the creep behavior of water ice with applications to the glaciers, ice sheets and icy satellites. Constitutive equations were determined that describe flow over a wide ranged of stress, strain rate, grain size and temperature. In the case of ice, three creep regimes were delineate. Extrapolation demonstrates that dislocation glide and grain boundary sliding processes dominate flow in ice I under planetary conditions and that diffusion creep is not an important deformation mechanism either in the laboratory or on icy satellites. These results have already been incorporated by other investigators into models describing, for example, the thickness and stability of the ice shell on Europa and to unravel long-standing discrepancies between field observations on glaciers and laboratory results.

Kohlstedt, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Cloud Properties Observed by MODIS: Preliminary Level-3 Results from the Collection 5 Reprocessing

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of operational algorithms for the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, thermodynamic phase) have recently been updated and are being used in the new "Collection 5" processing stream being produced by the MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) at NASA GSFC. All Terra and Aqua data are undergoing Collection 5 reprocessing with an expected completion date by the end of 2006. The archived products from these algorithms include 1 km pixel-level (Level-2) and global gridded Level-3 products. The cloud products have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In this talk, we will summarize the available Level-3 cloud properties and their associated statistical data sets, and show preliminary Terra and Aqua results from the available Collection 5 reprocessing effort. Anticipated results include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties for both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the world.

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cometary Coma Chemical Composition (C4) Mission

Cometary exploration remains of great importance to virtually all of space science. Because comets are presumed to be remnants of the early solar nebula, they are expected to provide fundamental knowledge as to the origin and development of the solar system as well as to be key to understanding of the source of volatiles and even life itself in the inner solar system. Clearly the time for a detailed study of the composition of these apparent messages from the past has come. A comet rendezvous mission, the Cometary Coma Chemical Composition (C4) Mission, is now being studied as a candidate for the new Discovery program. This mission is a highly-focussed and usefully-limited subset of the Cometary Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) Mission. The C4 mission will concentrate on measurements that will produce an understanding of the composition and physical makeup of a cometary nucleus. The core science goals of the C4 mission are 1) to determine the chemical, elemental, and isotopic composition of a cometary nucleus and 2) to characterize the chemical and isotopic nature of its atmosphere. A related goal is to obtain temporal information about the development of the cometary coma as a function of time and orbital position. The four short-period comets -- Tempel 1, Tempel 2, Churyumov-Gerasimenko, and Wirtanen -which all appear to have acceptable dust production rates, were identified as candidate targets. Mission opportunities have been identified beginning as early as 1998. Tempel I with a launch in 1999, however, remains the baseline comet for studies of and planning the C4 mission. The C4 mission incorporates two science instruments and two engineering instruments in the payload to obtain the desired measurements. The science instruments include an advanced version of the Cometary Ice and Dust Experiment (CIDEX), a mini-CIDEX with a sample collection system, an X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer and a Pyrolysis-Gas Chromatograph, and a simplified version of the Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NIGMS). Both of these instruments have substantial heritage as they are based on those developed for the CRAF Mission. The engineering instruments include a simplified Comet Dust Environmental Monitor (SCODEM) and a navigational Camera, NAVCAM. While neither of the instruments will be permitted to establish science requirements, it is anticipated that significant science return will be accomplished Radio science will also be included.

Carle, Glenn C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Curating NASA's Past, Present, and Future Astromaterial Sample Collections

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA Johnson Space Center (hereafter JSC curation) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. JSC presently curates 9 different astromaterials collections in seven different clean-room suites: (1) Apollo Samples (ISO (International Standards Organization) class 6 + 7); (2) Antarctic Meteorites (ISO 6 + 7); (3) Cosmic Dust Particles (ISO 5); (4) Microparticle Impact Collection (ISO 7; formerly called Space-Exposed Hardware); (5) Genesis Solar Wind Atoms (ISO 4); (6) Stardust Comet Particles (ISO 5); (7) Stardust Interstellar Particles (ISO 5); (8) Hayabusa Asteroid Particles (ISO 5); (9) OSIRIS-REx Spacecraft Coupons and Witness Plates (ISO 7). Additional cleanrooms are currently being planned to house samples from two new collections, Hayabusa 2 (2021) and OSIRIS-REx (2023). In addition to the labs that house the samples, we maintain a wide variety of infra-structure facilities required to support the clean rooms: HEPA-filtered air-handling systems, ultrapure dry gaseous nitrogen systems, an ultrapure water system, and cleaning facilities to provide clean tools and equipment for the labs. We also have sample preparation facilities for making thin sections, microtome sections, and even focused ion-beam sections. We routinely monitor the cleanliness of our clean rooms and infrastructure systems, including measurements of inorganic or organic contamination, weekly airborne particle counts, compositional and isotopic monitoring of liquid N2 deliveries, and daily UPW system monitoring. In addition to the physical maintenance of the samples, we track within our databases the current and ever changing characteristics (weight, location, etc.) of more than 250,000 individually numbered samples across our various collections, as well as more than 100,000 images, and countless "analog" records that record the sample processing records of each individual sample. JSC Curation is co-located with JSC's Astromaterials Research Office, which houses a world-class suite of analytical instrumentation and scientists. We leverage these labs and personnel to better curate the samples. Part of the cu-ration process is planning for the future, and we refer to these planning efforts as "advanced curation". Advanced Curation is tasked with developing procedures, technology, and data sets necessary for curating new types of collections as envi-sioned by NASA exploration goals. We are (and have been) planning for future cu-ration, including cold curation, extended curation of ices and volatiles, curation of samples with special chemical considerations such as perchlorate-rich samples, and curation of organically- and biologically-sensitive samples.

Zeigler, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A42F-03: Small-Scale Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Humidity

Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about minus 5 divided by 3, to minus 2.

water vapor↗
NASA NTRS1989

Characteristics of energetic solar flare electron spectra

A 55 event survey of energy spectra of 0.1-100 MeV interplanetary electrons originating from solar flares as measured by two spectrometers onboard the ISEE 3 (ICE) spacecraft for the years 1978-1982 has been completed. Spectra generated using the maximum flux of a given event in each energy channel were restricted to events with a well-defined flux rise time. Two broad groups of electron spectra are considered. In one group, the spectra are well represented by a single power law in rigidity with spectral index in the range 3-4.5. The spectra in the other group deviate from a power law in rigidity systematically in that they harden with increasing rigidity. Events with near power-law spectra are found to be correlated with long-duration soft X-ray events, whereas those with hardening spectra are correlated with short-duration events. The possible variation of acceleration and propagation processes with the properties of the flare site is discussed, using the duration of the soft X-ray flare emission as an indicator of the physical parameters of the flare site (flare volume, density, coronal height, and magnetic field geometry).

Moses, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Tropical Convective Spectrum: Archetypal Vertical Structures - Part 1

A taxonomy of tropical convective and stratiform vertical structures is constructed through cluster analysis of 3 yr of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) "warm-season" (surface temperature greater than 10 C) precipitation radar (PR) vertical profiles, their surface rainfall, and associated radar-based classifiers (convective/ stratiform and brightband existence). Twenty-five archetypal profile types are identified, including nine convective types, eight stratiform types, two mixed types, and six anvil/fragment types (nonprecipitating anvils and sheared deep convective profiles). These profile types are then hierarchically clustered into 10 similar families, which can be further combined, providing an objective and physical reduction of the highly multivariate PR data space that retains vertical structure information. The taxonomy allows for description of any storm or local convective spectrum by the profile types or families. The analysis provides a quasi-independent corroboration of the TRMM 2A23 convective/ stratiform classification. The global frequency of occurrence and contribution to rainfall for the profile types are presented, demonstrating primary rainfall contribution by midlevel glaciated convection (27%) and similar depth decaying/stratiform stages (28%-31%). Profiles of these types exhibit similar 37- and 85-GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures but differ greatly in their frequency of occurrence and mean rain rates, underscoring the importance to passive microwave rain retrieval of convective/stratiform discrimination by other means, such as polarization or texture techniques, or incorporation of lightning observations. Close correspondence is found between deep convective profile frequency and annualized lightning production, and pixel-level lightning occurrence likelihood directly tracks the estimated mean ice water path within profile types.

Precipitation radar↗
NASA NTRS2021

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗
NASA NTRS2005

Coupled Gravity and Elevation Measurements of Ice Sheet Mass Change

We measured surface gravity and position at ten locations about two glaciological measurement networks located on the South-central Greenland Ice during June 2004. Six of the individual sites of the first network were occupied the previous year. At the repeat sites we were able to measure annual accumulation rate and surface displacement by referencing measurements to aluminum poles left in the firn the previous year. We occupied 4 additional sites at a second measurement network for the first time since initial observations were last made at the network in 1981. At each individual site, we operated a GPS unit for 90 minutes - the unit was operated simultaneously with a base station unit in Sondrestrom Fjord so as to enable differential, post-processing of the data. We installed an aluminum, accumulation-rate-pole at each site. The base section of the pole also served as the mount for the GPS antenna. A new, Scintrex gravimeter was used at each site and relative gravity measurements were tied to the network of absolute gravity stations in Sondrestrom. We measured snow physical properties in two shallow pits. This report summarizes our observations and data analysis.

Jezek, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

"Weekend-effect" evidence for intensification of storms by pollution over U.S.

Aerosols change the way precipitating clouds evolve, due to their effect on condensation and ice formation. The net effect of aerosols on precipitation varies depending on the local environment and synoptic situation, the types of aerosols, and also on how far downstream one looks for effects. Repeated experiments with controlled release of aerosols would be helpful in unraveling how aerosols affect precipitation. The weekly variation in human activity may provide just such a set of experiments. Using the rainfall estimates from the passive microwave instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which has been orbiting for over eight years and can view areas as far north as about 40 degs, we find that there is indeed a weekly variation in summer (JJA) rainfall over the southeastern U.S. land area, with the average rain rate peaking in the middle of the week (Tue-Thu). Rainfall over nearby oceanic areas, on the other hand, seems to peak on weekends. A bootstrap statistical test indicates that the variations are unlikely to be due to chance. Physically related weekly variations in the statistics of ground-based measurements and model reanalysis data are found. The midweek peak in rainfall over land coincides with the well documented midweek peak in pollution around much of the U.S., and is unlikely to be due to other weekly variations in human influence. The midweek increase is also unlikely to be a consequence of the radiative heating or cooling of the atmosphere by the aerosols.

Bell, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Icehouse Effect: A Polar Autumn and Winter Cooling Trend

The icehouse effect is a hypothesized polar climate trend toward cooling (or lack of warming) in response to greenhouse warming of adjacent lower latitudes. When greenhouse warmed air from lower latitudes moves over ice and snow, it generates a stronger, more stable, cappino, inversion than in a parallel case without greenhouse warming. Because the degree of decoupling between vertically adjacent air masses is directly dependent on the strength of the inversion, the capping inversion acts somewhat analogously to the walls and roof of the icehouse of generations past. What is inside the icehouse, namely the cold polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) air, is preserved by the "insulation" or decoupling, provided by the warm air aloft. Observations over the Arctic Ocean have shown an unexpected lack of any detectable surface warming trend over the past 40 years. This finding strongly contradicts climate model predictions that polar regions should show the strongest effect of greenhouse warming. It also stands in contrast to the consensus reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that human caused greenhouse warming is now detectable globally. One might ask: Are these Arctic observations wrong? Or, if right, is there a plausible physical explanation for them? The published observations mentioned above used about 50,000 soundings over the Arctic Ocean. Here I present a novel analysis of ALL available Arctic rawinsonde data north of 65N--a total of more than 1.1 million soundings. The analysis confirms the previously published result: There is indeed a slight climate-cooling trend in the vast majority of the data. Importantly, there are also select conditions (very strong and very weak stability of the ABL) which show a consistent, strong Arctic warming trend. It is the juxtaposition of these warming and cooling trends which defines a unique "icehouse signature" for which an explanation can be sought.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Arctic Amplification: Process Drivers and Sources of Uncertainty

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This presentation synthesizes current knowledge of AA and describes a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Formation Age of Comets: Predicted Physical and Chemical Trends

Dust grains in Herbig Ae/Be stars are continuously replenished by infalling comets. The IR spectra of these cometary grains appear to evolve temporally from initially amorphous astronomical silicates in young protostars to crystalline olivine in much older sources. Crystalline olivine can only be produced from amorphous silicates on a time scale of months-to-years via thermal annealing at temperatures near 1000 K. Since such sustained high temperatures only occur near the central star, dust annealed at 1000 K in inner nebular regions must be continuously transported beyond the nebular snowline to be incorporated into the next generation of cometesimals. The average formation age of a comet can therefore be measured as a ratio of the annealed crystalline olivine dust component to the total dust content of the comet. Comets formed from nearly pristine interstellar materials early in the protostellar nebula stage will contain very little crystalline dust whereas comets formed towards the end of the accretion period will incorporate a much higher percentage of annealed silicate. It is unlikely that only dust grains circulate from the inner to the outer nebula; the gas associated with such dust should also find its way beyond the snowline. Since this gas and dust will have equilibrated in the higher pressure-temperature regime of the inner nebula, it will contain a much higher proportion of hydrocarbons and ammonia than more pristine interstellar ices. Therefore, in addition to a higher fraction of crystalline dust, later forming comets should also contain higher ratios of hydrocarbons to CO and ammonia to N2 than do those formed early in the history of the nebula.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme Using TRMM Satellite Observations

Comparisons between cloud model simulations and observations are crucial in validating model performance and improving physical processes represented in the mod Tel.hese modeled physical processes are idealized representations and almost always have large rooms for improvements. In this study, we use data from two different sensors onboard TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) satellite to improve the microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. TRMM observed mature-stage squall lines during late spring, early summer in central US over a 9-year period are compiled and compared with a case simulation by GCE model. A unique aspect of the GCE model is that it has a state-of-the-art spectral bin microphysical scheme, which uses 33 different bins to represent particle size distribution of each of the seven hydrometeor species. A forward radiative transfer model calculates TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85 GHz brightness temperatures from simulated particle size distributions. Comparisons between model outputs and observations reveal that the model overestimates sizes of snow/aggregates in the stratiform region of the squall line. After adjusting temperature-dependent collection coefficients among ice-phase particles, PR comparisons become good while TMI comparisons worsen. Further investigations show that the partitioning between graupel (a high-density form of aggregate), and snow (a low-density form of aggregate) needs to be adjusted in order to have good comparisons in both PR reflectivity and TMI brightness temperature. This study shows that long-term satellite observations, especially those with multiple sensors, can be very useful in constraining model microphysics. It is also the first study in validating and improving a sophisticated spectral bin microphysical scheme according to long-term satellite observations.

Li, Xiaowen↗