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DOE OSTI2013

Improved simulation of extreme precipitation in a high-resolution atmosphere model

Climate models often underestimate the magnitude of extreme precipitation. We compare the performance of a high-resolution (~0.25°) time-slice atmospheric simulation (1979–2005) of the Community Earth System Model 1.0 in representing daily extreme precipitation events against those of the same model at lower resolutions (~1° and 2°). We find significant increases in the simulated levels of daily extreme precipitation over Europe, the United States, and Australia. In many cases the increase in high percentiles (>95th) of daily precipitation leads to better agreement with observational data sets. For lower percentiles, we find that increasing resolution does not significantly increase values of simulated precipitation. We argue that the reduced biases mainly result from the higher resolution models resolving more key physical processes controlling heavy precipitation. Lastly, we conclude that while high resolution is vital for accurately simulating extreme precipitation, considerable biases remain at the highest available model resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

A new algorithm for three‐dimensional joint inversion of body wave and surface wave data and its application to the Southern California plate boundary region

Abstract We introduce a new algorithm for joint inversion of body wave and surface wave data to get better 3‐D P wave ( V p ) and S wave ( V s ) velocity models by taking advantage of the complementary strengths of each data set. Our joint inversion algorithm uses a one‐step inversion of surface wave traveltime measurements at different periods for 3‐D V s and V p models without constructing the intermediate phase or group velocity maps. This allows a more straightforward modeling of surface wave traveltime data with the body wave arrival times. We take into consideration the sensitivity of surface wave data with respect to V p in addition to its large sensitivity to V s , which means both models are constrained by two different data types. The method is applied to determine 3‐D crustal V p and V s models using body wave and Rayleigh wave data in the Southern California plate boundary region, which has previously been studied with both double‐difference tomography method using body wave arrival times and ambient noise tomography method with Rayleigh and Love wave group velocity dispersion measurements. Our approach creates self‐consistent and unique models with no prominent gaps, with Rayleigh wave data resolving shallow and large‐scale features and body wave data constraining relatively deeper structures where their ray coverage is good. The velocity model from the joint inversion is consistent with local geological structures and produces better fits to observed seismic waveforms than the current Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) model.

Fang, Hongjian↗

DOE OSTI2023

A phased workflow to define permit‐ready locations for large volume CO 2 injection and storage

Abstract To‐date, only two UIC Class VI permits have been issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency. We illustrate a four‐phase workflow to first identify regional storage resources and then down‐select sites to yield permit‐ready locations that can accept and store large volumes of CO 2 . Specific permit requirements should guide objectives and define deliverables of respective workflow phases. In the first phase we used available regional data and screened structure and injection zones to locate resources that match CO 2 volumes planned to be captured. Available data were also used to assess presence and depth of usable groundwater, the key resource being protected via permitting. We then used advanced, closed‐form, analytical solutions (EASiTool) to estimate CO 2 injectivity into each hydrologically connected injection compartment. In the second phase we acquired and conditioned additional wireline logs and leased available seismic datasets. We interpreted the depositional systems from wireline well‐log character and mapped sandbody geometry to interpolate injection and confining‐zone distribution. Using available data, we mapped faults and locations of freshwater and overpressure (or other capacity‐limiting geologic parameters) in more detail. In the third phase, we used the augmented geologic data to develop a static model for the selected area, extracted the areas of highest interest, and generated and ran dynamic (flow) models. In a fourth phase, we reduced major uncertainties identified in earlier phases. Our case study indicates that to complete preparation of a permit application requires (1) improved lithologic characterization information (thicknesses and horizontal and vertical connectivity) and (2) better definition of poorly defined local faults. © 2023 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Localized harmonic characteristic basis functions for multiscale finite element methods

We solve elliptic systems of equations posed on highly heterogeneous materials. Examples of this class of problems are composite structures and geological processes. We focus on a model problem which is a second-order elliptic equation with discontinuous coefficients. These coefficients represent the conductivity of a composite material. We assume a background with a low conductivity that contains inclusions with different thermal properties. Under this scenario, we design a multiscale finite element method to efficiently approximate solutions. The method is based on an asymptotic expansion of the solution in terms of the ratio between the conductivities. The resulting method constructs (locally) finite element basis functions (one for each inclusion). These bases generate the multiscale finite element space where the approximation of the solution is computed. Numerical experiments show the good performance of the proposed methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Study of hydraulic fracturing processes in shale formations with complex geological settings

Hydraulic fracturing has been applied to extract gas from shale-gas reservoirs. Complicated geological settings, such as spatial variability of the rock mass properties, local heterogeneities, complex in situ stress field, and pre-existing bedding planes and faults, could make hydraulic fracturing a challenging task. In order to effectively and economically recover gas from such reservoirs, it is crucial to explore how hydraulic fracturing performs in such complex geological settings. For this purpose, numerical modelling plays an important role because such conditions cannot be reproduced by laboratory experiments. This study focuses on the analysis of the influence of confining formations and pre-existing bedding planes and faults on the hydraulically-induced propagation of a vertical fracture, which will be called injection fracture, in a shale-gas reservoir. An elastic-brittle model based on material property degradation was implemented in a 2D finite-difference scheme and used for rock elements subjected to tension and shear failure. A base case is considered, in which the ratio SR between the magnitudes of the horizontal and vertical stresses, the permeability k c of the confining formations, the elastic modulus E p and initial permeability k p of the bedding plane and the initial fault permeability k F are fixed at reasonable values. In addition, the influence of multiple bedding planes, is investigated. Changes in pore pressure and permeability due to high pressure injection lasting 2 h were analysed. Results show that in our case during the injection period the fracture reaches the confining formations and if the permeability of those layers is significantly larger than that of the shale, the pore pressure at the extended fracture tip decreases and fracture propagation becomes slower. After shut-in, the pore pressure decreases more and the fracture does not propagate any more. For bedding planes oriented perpendicular to the maximum principal stress direction and with the same elastic properties as the shale formation, results were found not to be influenced by their presence. In such a scenario, the impact of multiple bedding planes on fracture propagation is negligible. On the other hand, a bedding plane softer than the surrounding shale formation leads to a fracture propagation asymmetrical vertically with respect to the centre of the injection fracture with a more limited upward fracture propagation. A pre-existing fault leads to a decrease in fracture propagation because of fault reactivation with shear failure. This results in a smaller increase in injection fracture permeability and a slight higher injection pressure than that observed without the fault. Results of a sensitivity analysis show that fracture propagation is influenced by the stress ratio SR, the permeability k c of the confining formations and the initial permeability k p of the bedding plane more than the other major parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EVOLUTION OF MICROBIAL MATS AND LAND PLANTS ON THE EARTH AS A PLANET. PHOTOMETRIC AND SPECTROSCOPIC LIGHT CURVES OF PALEO-EARTHS

Understanding the spectral and photometric variability of the Earth and the rest of the solar system planets has become of utmost importance for the future characterization of rocky exoplanets. As this is not only interesting at present times but also along the planetary evolution, we studied the effect that the evolution of microbial mats and plants over land has had on the way our planet looks from afar. As life evolved, continental surfaces changed gradually and non-uniformly from deserts through microbial mats to land plants, modifying the reflective properties of the ground and most likely the distribution of moisture and cloudiness. Here, we used a radiative transfer model of the Earth, together with geological paleo-records of the continental distribution and a reconstructed cloud distribution, to simulate the visible and near-IR radiation reflected by our planet as a function of Earth's rotation. We found that the evolution from deserts to microbial mats and to land plants produces detectable changes in the globally averaged Earth's reflectance. The variability of each surface type is located in different bands and can induce reflectance changes of up to 40% in period of hours. We conclude that by using photometric observations of an Earth-like planet at different photometric bands it would be possible to discriminate between different surface types. While recent literature proposes the red-edge feature of vegetation near 0.7 {mu}m as a signature for land plants, observations in near-IR bands can be equally or even better suited for this purpose.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing 3D Mechanical Earth Models for Calibration and Validation in a Large-Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Project in North Dakota

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. Three-dimensional (3D) mechanical earth models (MEMs) are pivotal in assessing geological sites for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage and mitigating potential risks associated with storage and injection. The Energy & Environmental Research Center is exploring innovative carbon storage monitoring techniques at a CO 2 storage site near Beulah, North Dakota. These methods aim to provide lower-impact, faster feedback for commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The research includes monitoring CO 2 injection using various approaches: 1) an automated, integrated modular monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance; 4) time-lapse seismic techniques; and 5) advanced wellbore monitoring.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2015

Natural Gas Value-Chain and Network Assessments

The current expansion of natural gas (NG) development in the United States requires an understanding of how this change will affect the natural gas industry, downstream consumers, and economic growth in order to promote effective planning and policy development. The impact of this expansion may propagate through the NG system and US economy via changes in manufacturing, electric power generation, transportation, commerce, and increased exports of liquefied natural gas. We conceptualize this problem as supply shock propagation that pushes the NG system and the economy away from its current state of infrastructure development and level of natural gas use. To illustrate this, the project developed two core modeling approaches. The first is an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach which addresses shock propagation throughout the existing natural gas distribution system. The second approach uses a System Dynamics-based model to illustrate the feedback mechanisms related to finding new supplies of natural gas - notably shale gas - and how those mechanisms affect exploration investments in the natural gas market with respect to proven reserves. The ABM illustrates several stylized scenarios of large liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. The ABM preliminary results demonstrate that such scenario is likely to have substantial effects on NG prices and on pipeline capacity utilization. Our preliminary results indicate that the price of natural gas in the U.S. may rise by about 50% when the LNG exports represent 15% of the system-wide demand. The main findings of the System Dynamics model indicate that proven reserves for coalbed methane, conventional gas and now shale gas can be adequately modeled based on a combination of geologic, economic and technology-based variables. A base case scenario matches historical proven reserves data for these three types of natural gas. An environmental scenario, based on implementing a $50/tonne CO 2 tax results in less proven reserves being developed in the coming years while demand may decrease in the absence of acceptable substitutes, incentives or changes in consumer behavior. An increase in demand of 25% increases proven reserves being developed by a very small amount by the end of the forecast period of 2025.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Geothermal Potential of the Cascade and Aleutian Arcs, with Ranking of Individual Volcanic Centers for their Potential to Host Electricity-Grade Reservoirs

This project brings a global perspective to volcanic arc geothermal play fairway analysis by developing statistics for the occurrence of geothermal reservoirs and their geoscience context worldwide in order to rank U.S. prospects. The focus of the work was to develop play fairways for the Cascade and Aleutian arcs to rank the individual volcanic centers in these arcs by their potential to host electricity grade geothermal systems. The Fairway models were developed by describing key geologic factors expected to be indicative of productive geothermal systems in a global training set, which includes 74 volcanic centers world-wide with current power production. To our knowledge, this is the most robust geothermal benchmark training set for magmatic systems to date that will be made public.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Computational Approach for Improving Three-Dimensional Sub-Surface Earth Structure for Regional Earthquake Hazard Simulations in the San Francisco Bay Area

In our Exascale Computing Project (ECP) we seek to simulate earthquake ground motions at much higher frequency than is currently possible. Previous simulations in the SFBA were limited to 0.5-1 Hz or lower (Aagaard et al. 2008, 2010), while we have recently simulated the response to 5 Hz. In order to improve confidence in simulated ground motions, we must accurately represent the three-dimensional (3D) sub-surface material properties that govern seismic wave propagation over a broad region. We are currently focusing on the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) with a Cartesian domain of size 120 x 80 x 35 km, but this area will be expanded to cover a larger domain. Currently, the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) has a 3D model of the SFBA for seismic simulations. However, this model suffers from two serious shortcomings relative to our application: 1) it does not fit most of the available low frequency (< 1 Hz) seismic waveforms from moderate (magnitude M 3.5-5.0) earthquakes; and 2) it is represented with much lower resolution than necessary for the high frequency simulations (> 5 Hz) we seek to perform. The current model will serve as a starting model for full waveform tomography based on 3D sensitivity kernels. This report serves as the deliverable for our ECP FY2017 Quarter 4 milestone to FY 2018 “Computational approach to developing model updates”. We summarize the current state of 3D seismic simulations in the SFBA and demonstrate the performance of the USGS 3D model for a few selected paths. We show the available open-source waveform data sets for model updates, based on moderate earthquakes recorded in the region. We present a plan for improving the 3D model utilizing the available data and further development of our SW4 application. We project how the model could be improved and present options for further improvements focused on the shallow geotechnical layers using dense passive recordings of ambient and human-induced noise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

International Collaboration on Spent Fuel Disposition in Crystalline Media: FY18 Progress Report

Active participation in international R&D is crucial for achieving the Spent Fuel Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) long-term goals of conducting "experiments to fill data needs and confirm advanced modeling approaches" and of having a "robust modeling and experimental basis for evaluation of multiple disposal system options" (by 2020). DOE's Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has developed a strategic plan to advance cooperation with international partners. The international collaboration on the evaluation of crystalline disposal media at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY18 focused on the collaboration through the Development of Coupled Models and their Validation against Experiments (DECOVALEX- 2019) project. The DECOVALEX project is an international research and model comparison collaboration, initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanicalchemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. SNL has been participating in three tasks of the DECOVALEX project: Task A. Modeling gas injection experiments (ENGINEER), Task C. Modeling groundwater recovery experiment in tunnel (GREET), and Task F. Fluid inclusion and movement in the tight rock (FINITO). FY18 work focused on Task C and preparing the interim reports for the three tasks SNL has been imvolved. The major accomplishments are summarized

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technology Summary L-21044 Tunnel Sensor Hydrogeology Evaluations

Illicit tunneling along the U.S. Mexican border is a persistent national security problem. Several types of sensors could be to used to detect tunnels, but the hydrogeology of the subsurface makes some technologies ineffective. This effort used available borehole and surface geology data to develop 3D hydrogeologic models, which could then provide the input for optimizing subsurface sensor technologies to detect tunnels. Depending on the specific type of sensor, the following physical properties of the subsurface are important: longitudinal speed (velocity-p), shear speed (velocity-s), acoustic attenuation, electrical permittivity, electrical conductivity, density and elastic properties. LLNL developed a procedure which uses hydrogeological datasets to determine 3D hydrogeology cross sections. The physical properties of the rocks are generally not known precisely, thus ranges of properties would need to be considered. This cross-section data can then be utilized to enhance modeling studies to optimize sensor types/systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Applications in Analyzing the Role of Shale Barriers and Baffles for CO2 Storage

This study uses machine learning to analyze microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) and quantify CO₂ plume extents. By leveraging well logs, microseismic records, and CO₂ injection metrics, the research predicts subsurface CO₂ plume dynamics. Findings show vertical clustering of microseismic events near the injection well, with CO₂ periodically breaching barriers due to buoyancy. K-Means clustering performed best, achieving the highest Silhouette Score and lowest Davies-Bouldin Index. This capability is crucial for real-time monitoring and management of CO₂ sequestration sites, validated against physical models and IBDP data, reinforcing CO₂ geological sequestration's viability and enhancing management tools.

Carr, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS) - Deliverable Task 7: Risk Assessment

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. The primary target CO 2 Storage Complex is the deep Ketona Dolomite located within a 140 square mile area of the Valley and Ridge Region of Alabama. This deep saline reservoir is beneath a confining system encompassing at least 6,500 ft of shales and other low permeability sediments. Project OASIS drilled a deep stratigraphic test well to confirm the geological properties of the confining system and storage reservoir(s) within the Storage Complex. The geological data was incorporated into numerical models to establish the areal extent of the CO 2 plume and help design the storage site and its monitoring system. The project is managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB), an interstate compact organization consisting of governors and state legislative leaders from sixteen southern states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as an appointee by the President of the United States. The organizational compact provides it with access to state government organizations and legislatures. The Board also maintains an Associate Members program comprised of energy resource companies, utilities, trade groups, academic R&D science and technology experts and energy consultants. Further, the SSEB staff is experienced in managing and coordinating complex energy and environmental programs, from research programs to full-scale design and demonstrations of new and innovative technologies. Project OASIS is a public-private partnership of six entities with multiple principal investigators (PIs). SSEB’s Lead PI and Co-PI are responsible for all aspects of project performance in accordance with the DOE-NETL Cooperative Agreement. SSEB has issued subgrants to Advanced Resources International, Inc., Alabama A&M University, Auburn University, Crescent Resource Innovation, and Oklahoma State University. Advanced Resources International, Inc., issued subgrants to Baker Hughes and Loudon Technical Services for field services

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sub-Basin Delineation for the Upper East River, Colorado, United States

Upper East sub-basins constructed 10/7/2016 using 10m digital elevation model obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Data set (NED) and ArcGIS Hydrology tool box (ESRI v 10.3.1). Sub-watersheds are delineated as area contributing flow to SFA 2016 stream gage locations. Shapefile attributes include sub-basin ID, name, area (m2 and km2) and codes for spatial contributions to EBC and PH used by Carroll et al. (2018). Geospatial reference is UTM 1983 zone 13. JPEG image provided to show sub-basin delineation with respect to surface geology (Gothic Quadrangle: Gaskill et al., 1991; Maroon Bells Quadrangle: Bryant, 1969).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Thermal evolution of the moon.

The thermal history and current state of the lunar interior are investigated using constraints imposed by recent geological and physical data. Theoretical temperature models are computed taking into account different initial conditions, heat sources, differentiation and simulated convection. To account for the early formation of the lunar highlands, the time duration of magmatism and present-day temperatures estimated from lunar electrical conductivity profiles, it is necessary to restrict initial temperatures and abundances of radioactive elements. Successful models require that the outer half of the moon initially heated to melting temperatures, probably due to rapid accretion. Differentiation of radioactive heat sources toward the lunar surface occurred during the first 1.6 billion years. Temperatures in the outer 500 km are currently low, while the deep interior (radius less than 700 to 1000 km) is warmer than 1000 C, and is of primordial material.

Toksoz, M. N.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Solar luminosity variations and the climate of Mars

Attempts to resolve the solar neutrino flux problem have led to suggestions of large scale oscillations in the solar luminosity on a geological time scale. A simple climatological model of Mars indicates that its climate may be much more sensitive to luminosity changes than the earth's because of strong positive feedback mechanisms at work on Mars. Mariner-9 photographs of Mars show an abundance of large sinuous channels that point to an epoch of higher atmospheric pressures and abundant liquid water. Such an epoch could have been the result of large-scale, solar luminosity variations. However, our climatological model suggests that other less controversial mechanisms, such as obliquity or polar albedo changes, also could have led to such an epoch. As more becomes known about Mars, it may prove possible to formulate a history of Martian climate. By discovering effects that cannot be due to other mechanisms one may be able to form a chronology of solar luminosity variations to compare with data from the earth.

Toon, O. B.↗