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This submission contains the presentation slides and recordings from EGS Collab Modeling and Simulation Working Group (MSWG) teleconferences number 99 through 128. These teleconferences served three objectives for the project: 1) share simulation results, 2) communicate field activities and results to the simulation teams, and 3) hold open scientific discussions on EGS topics.
Hydraulic fracturing is a technique extensively used in the oil and gas industry, where water, proppant (sand) and additives are injected into unconventional reservoirs to enhance the recovery of shale hydrocarbon. Although some previous studies have developed pumping schedules that maximize gas production for a single-size proppant, there are very few studies that consider the effect of varying proppant diameters across pumping stages on shale gas production. Motivated by this, we carried out an extensive sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of different proppant diameters on the average fracture conductivity (FC), average propped surface area (PSA) and cumulative shale gas production volume. We found out that the cumulative shale gas production volume depends on both the average PSA and average FC. We also found out that small-diameter proppant resulted in higher average PSA and lower average FC, whereas large-diameter proppant resulted in lower average PSA and higher average FC. Hence, we designed a multi-size proppant pumping schedule considering both of these parameters into account for simultaneously propagating multiple fractures to maximize shale gas production from unconventional reservoirs. Since the size of injected proppant particles determines the average PSA and average FC for the propped hydraulic fractures, we developed a novel framework called Sequentially Interlinked Modeling Structure (SIMS) to predict the average PSA, average FC and cumulative shale gas production volume at the end of 10 years for a given pumping schedule. Then, we used this SIMS framework to obtain a multi-size proppant pumping schedule that maximizes shale gas production. In closing, we demonstrated that the obtained pumping schedule gives a cumulative shale gas production volume greater than the values obtained from the existing pumping schedules.
Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.
The extension of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) from metallic alloys to advanced fiber composite laminates is considered. LEFM is shown to be valid for both isotropic and anisotropic homogeneous continua; the applicability of LEFM to advanced fiber composites is thus dependent on the validity of a homogeneous model of such materials. An experimental program to determine the validity of such a model for graphite/epoxy laminates is reviewed. Such laminates are found to have an apparent fracture toughness, from which it is inferred that a homogeneous material model is valid for the particular specimen geometry and composite laminates considered. Strain energy release rates are calculated from the experimentally determined fracture toughness of the various laminates. These strain energy release rates are found to lie in one of two groups, depending upon whether crack extension required fiber failure or matrix failure. The latter case is further investigated. It is concluded that matrix failure is governed by the tensile stress normal to the crack path.
Crack growth under coupled creep-fatigue strongly influences service life of metallic components operating at high temperatures. However, there lack numerical models that enable direct simulations of crack growth and plasticity development under coupled creep-fatigue. Here, in this study, a unified phase-field model is developed for simulating crack growth under fatigue, creep, and coupled creep-fatigue. This model is able to reproduce the Paris laws for both brittle and ductile materials in pure fatigue mode, which shows that the degradation rate due to cyclic stress in ductile materials is generally larger than that in brittle materials. Fatigue simulations with different yield strengths demonstrate that plasticity facilitates crack growth in typical ductile materials. High-throughput simulations are performed under coupled creep-fatigue conditions, with varying hold-stress levels and hold-time. By analyzing crack growth rate under different hold-time, a creep-fatigue interaction term is obtained. Simulation results demonstrate that the creep-fatigue interaction is caused by smaller stress gradient and enhanced degradation rate ahead of the crack tips under coupled creep-fatigue, compared to the situation of pure fatigue. This work reveals the origin of different Paris-law exponents in brittle and ductile materials and demonstrates how the interplay between creep and fatigue affects crack growth.
Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.
The objective of the research reported herein is to develop a progressive damage methodology capable of predicting the residual strength of continuous fiber-reinforced, laminated, polymer matrix composites with through-penetration damage. The fracture behavior of center-notch tension panels with thin crack-like slits was studied. Since fibers are the major load-carrying constituent in polymer matrix composites, predicting the residual strength of a laminate requires a criterion for fiber fracture. The effects on fiber strain due to other damage mechanisms such as matrix cracking and delaminations must also be modeled. Therefore, the research herein examines the damage mechanisms involved in translaminate fracture and identifies the toughening mechanisms responsible for damage growth resistance in brittle epoxy matrix systems. The mechanics of matrix cracking and fiber fracture are discussed as is the mathematical framework for the progressive damage model developed by the authors. The progressive damage analysis algorithms have been implemented into a general purpose finite element code developed by NASA, the Computational Structural Mechanics Testbed (COMET). Damage growth is numerically simulated and the analytical residual strength predictions are compared to experimental results for a variety of notched panel configurations and materials systems.
The goal of the project is to employ a combination of high-fidelity simulations and true-triaxial block fracturing tests at high temperature to explore the intricate relationship between in-situ stress and hydraulic fracture patterns and better characterize the in-situ stress at Utah FORGE. Laboratory experiments are used to validate numerical models and better understand the impact of various parameters (e.g., temperature, well orientation, stress, etc) on the hydraulic fracture nucleation process in EGS. The project will have a significant impact as it will (1) improve the characterization of the in-situ stress field at FORGE; (2) demonstrate how high-fidelity modeling tools can be employed to analyze data for EGS; (3) provide a unique set of high-temperature hydraulic fracturing experimental results for EGS to help identifying the most important components for in-situ stress estimation and to validate the current in-situ stress estimation theory and establish a strong foundation for proposing a new one; (4) provide a validated set of numerical tools in an open source simulation framework (GEOS) that can be used to model EGS.
Advanced Research International (ARI) sent seven staff members to the 1997 International Coalbed Methane Symposium, held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama from May 12-17. ARI gave a short course on risk reduction strategies, including remote fracture detection, for coalbed methane exploration and development that was attended by about 25 coalbed methane industry professionals; and presented a paper entitled 'Optimizing coalbed methane cavity completion operations with the application of a new discrete element model.' We met with many potential clients and discussed our fracture detection services. China has vast coalbed methane resources, but is still highly dependent on coal-and wood-burning. This workshop, sponsored by the United Nations, was intended to help China develop its less-polluting energy reserves. ARI is successfully finding new applications for its fracture detection services. Coalbed methane exploration became an important market in this quarter, with the inception of a joint industry/government collaboration between ARI, Texaco and DOE to use remote fracture detection to identify areas with good potential for coalbed methane production in the Ferron Coal Trend of central Utah. Geothermal energy exploration is another emerging market for ARI, where fracture detection is applied to identify pathways for groundwater recharge, movement, and the locations of potential geothermal reservoirs. Ari continued work on two industry/government collaborations to demonstrate fracture detection to potential clients. Also completed the technical content layout for multimedia CD-ROM that describes our remote fracture detection services.
Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.
Performance assessment (PA) of geologic radioactive waste repositories requires three-dimensional simulation of highly nonlinear, thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC), multiphase flow and transport processes across many kilometers and over tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Integrating the effects of a near-field geomechanical process (i.e. buffer swelling) into coupled THC simulations through reduced-order modeling, rather than through fully coupled geomechanics, can reduce the dimensionality of the problem and improve computational efficiency. In this study, PFLOTRAN simulations model a single waste package in a shale host rock repository, where re-saturation of a bentonite buffer causes the buffer to swell and exert stress on a highly fractured disturbed rock zone (DRZ). Three types of stress-dependent permeability functions (exponential, modified cubic, and Two-part Hooke’s law models) are implemented to describe mechanical characteristics of the system. Overall, our modeling study suggests that compressing fractures reduces DRZ permeability, which could influence the rate of radionuclide transport and exchange with corrosive species in host rock groundwater that could accelerate waste package degradation. Less permeable shale host rock delays buffer swelling, consequently retarding DRZ permeability reduction as well as chemical transport within the barrier system.
A “screening analysis” is implemented at Pahute Mesa (PM), Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), to determine subsets of the 43 radionuclides listed in the radionuclide inventory of Finnegan et al. (2016) that are of relevance or potential relevance to the hydrologic source term (HST) for assessment of radionuclide transport in groundwater. Consideration is added to how levels of contamination are defined and whether any other radionuclides not in the inventory are relevant to the HST. A model is developed to estimate a range of possible source concentrations in groundwater that account for uncertainty in partitioning into melt glass and sorption into surrounding rock of the exchange zone for the 82 PM underground nuclear tests detonated in vertical shafts. The model also accounts for the varied hydrogeochemical settings. Transport parameters needed for the screening model calculations are developed from databases for hydrogeologic units, chemistry, mineralogy, fracture spacing, fracture aperture, fracture openness, matrix porosity, bulk density, saturation, and alteration. Of key importance is consideration of diagenetic zonation of the mineralogy related to hydrothermal alteration. The screening analysis compares model results with available groundwater radiochemistry data. Consistency between screening model results and available data helps validate the model for application to all 43 radionuclides, most of which have no measurements or only non-detect measurements of concentration in groundwater. The screening analysis determines that ten radionuclides – tritium, Sr-90, I-129, Cs-137, U-232, U-233, U-234, U-238, and the total of Pu-239 and Pu-240 are relevant to the HST. Determination of relevance is primarily based on data and/or model results indicating source concentration exceeding a maximum contaminant level (MCL) out to 100 years since the time of detonation. U-238 is relevant to assessment of contamination relative to MCLs for uranium and gross alpha particle activity. Five other radionuclides – C-14, Cl-36, Tc-99, Np-237, and Pu-238 – are determined potentially relevant to the HST based on a 0.1 MCL threshold. The screening analysis recommends additional attention to the natural daughter radionuclides of the uranium series (U-238) and thorium series (Th-232) decay chains, particularly Ra-226 and Ra-228, that were not included the inventory.
The reliability of brittle materials under a generalized state of stress is analyzed using the Batdorf model. The model is modified to include the reduction in shear due to the effect of the compressive stress on the microscopic crack faces. The combined effect of both surface and volume flaws is included. Due to the nature of fracture of brittle materials under compressive loading, the component is modeled as a series system in order to establish bounds on the probability of failure. A computer program was written to determine the probability of failure employing data from a finite element analysis. The analysis showed that for tensile loading a single crack will be the cause of total failure but under compressive loading a series of microscopic cracks must join together to form a dominant crack.
Abstract Catastrophic failure in brittle materials is often due to the rapid growth and coalescence of cracks aided by high internal stresses. Hence, accurate prediction of maximum internal stress is critical to predicting time to failure and improving the fracture resistance and reliability of materials. Existing high-fidelity methods, such as the Finite-Discrete Element Model (FDEM), are limited by their high computational cost. Therefore, to reduce computational cost while preserving accuracy, a deep learning model, StressNet, is proposed to predict the entire sequence of maximum internal stress based on fracture propagation and the initial stress data. More specifically, the Temporal Independent Convolutional Neural Network (TI-CNN) is designed to capture the spatial features of fractures like fracture path and spall regions, and the Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (Bi-LSTM) Network is adapted to capture the temporal features. By fusing these features, the evolution in time of the maximum internal stress can be accurately predicted. Moreover, an adaptive loss function is designed by dynamically integrating the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), to reflect the fluctuations in maximum internal stress. After training, the proposed model is able to compute accurate multi-step predictions of maximum internal stress in approximately 20 seconds, as compared to the FDEM run time of 4 h, with an average MAPE of 2% relative to test data.
Seasat altimetry profiles across the Falkland-Agulhas and Ascension fracture zones were examined for evidence of step-like geoid offsets predicted from thermal modeling of the lithosphere. Neither the plate nor the half-space model of lithospheric thermal evolution succeeds in predicting the variations in step height with age across the fracture zone branches considered. For ages less than about 30 Ma, the step offsets decrease in a manner suggesting a plate with a thickness of 50-75 km. At greater ages, the offsets show complex behavior that may be due to bathymetric features adjacent to the fracture zones. Similar geoid patterns on opposite branches of the Falkland-Agulhas fracture zone are indicative of processes that act symmetrically on both sides of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is consistent both with small-scale convection occurring beneath the lithosphere and with bathymetric features originally produced along the ridge crest and now located symmetrically on opposite sides of the ridge. The west flank of the Ascension fracture zone displays a regrowth in step height at about 40 Ma consistent with small-scale convection and in agreement with other studies of Pacific and South Atlantic fracture zones.
The validation of a ball-on-ring, equibiaxial flexural strength method to obtain the transverse rupture strength (TRS) of right cylindrical ceramic specimens was performed in this study. Validation of the test method was achieved using commercially available engineered high purity alumina disks and finite element (FE) model analysis. The validated fixture was then used to obtain the TRS and Weibull statistical analysis of MgO-partially stabilized zirconia (MSZ) and Y 2 O 3 -partially stabilized zirconia (YSZ) ceramic disks. TRS data for alumina, MSZ, and YSZ agreed with the TRS values reported in the literature. A statistically relevant number of samples (N > 30) for each material were tested to allow for a Weibull statistical analysis. Weibull parameters for these materials were within the expected values for engineered ceramics. The characteristic strength for alumina, MSZ, and YSZ were determined to be 289, 786, and 814 MPa, respectively. The Weibull modulus was determined between 10 and 25 for each material, which is typical of engineered ceramics. In addition, FE model results were in close agreement with experimental fracture values for the three ceramic materials tested in this study.
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