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At least 937 records · Page 52

Data-Driven Reliability Assessment for Marine Renewable Energy Enabled Island Power Systems

Marine renewable energy (MRE) resources are highly predictable and persistent sources of energy, when compared to other renewable sources like wind and solar. These lend them favorably for potential grid applications, particularly for coastal/island power systems where their generation potential is high. Island power systems, on the other hand, are either supported by onsite generation or by transported energy from the mainland grid. Therefore, robustness of grid operations depend heavily on the diversity of onsite generation resources and the reliability of the power transportation medium. Issues relating to either of these two factors may lead to impediments in smooth and reliable operation of the power system. Analyzing and quantifying operational risks for such island power systems with diverse non-conventional generation portfolios through conventional techniques can also prove to be cumbersome, often requiring multiple different inputs. Therefore, in this paper, we firstly present a novel, purely data-driven formulation which quantifies the operational reliability of such island power systems through minimal input data. Specifically, our proposed methodology only relies on historical knowledge of typical hourly load and generation profiles to quantify associated operational risks. Subsequently, we use our proposed formulation to evaluate the effectiveness of MRE resources (over other renewable resources like wind and solar) in providing resilience benefits to island power systems. The proposed formulation is demonstrated with a case study for an island power system in Nantucket, MA.

Chalishazar, Vishvas H.↗

Structural inference of networked dynamical systems with universal differential equations

Networked dynamical systems are common throughout science in engineering; e.g., biological networks, reaction networks, power systems, and the like. For many such systems, nonlinearity drives populations of identical (or near-identical) units to exhibit a wide range of nontrivial behaviors, such as the emergence of coherent structures (e.g., waves and patterns) or otherwise notable dynamics (e.g., synchrony and chaos). Here, we seek to infer (i) the intrinsic physics of a base unit of a population, (ii) the underlying graphical structure shared between units, and (iii) the coupling physics of a given networked dynamical system given observations of nodal states. These tasks are formulated around the notion of the Universal Differential Equation, whereby unknown dynamical systems can be approximated with neural networks, mathematical terms known a priori (albeit with unknown parameterizations), or combinations of the two. We demonstrate the value of these inference tasks by investigating not only future state predictions but also the inference of system behavior on varied network topologies. The effectiveness and utility of these methods are shown with their application to canonical networked nonlinear coupled oscillators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FCAP - A new tool for the evaluation of active control technology

A computer program has been developed for the evaluation of flight control systems designed for flexible aircraft. This Flight Control Analysis Program (FCAP) is designed in a modular fashion to incorporate sensor, actuator, and control logic element dynamics as well as aircraft dynamics and aerodynamics for complex configurations. Formulation of the total aircraft dynamic system is accomplished in matrix form by casting the equations in state vector format. The system stability and performance are determined in either the frequency or time domain using classical analysis techniques. The aerodynamic method used also permits evaluation of the flutter characteristics of the aircraft.

Noll, R. B.↗

Modal identification of gyroscopic distributed-parameter systems

A new modal identification method for gyroscopic distributed-parameter systems is presented. The method represents an extension of previous work for the class of self-adjoint distributed-parameter systems. The modal identification method is formulated as a variational problem in which stationary values of a functional quotient are sought. The computation of the functional quotient is carried out using a set of admissible functions defined over the spatial domain of the system. As an illustration, the modal identification of a whirling shaft undergoing bending vibration is carried out and the effectiveness of the method is verified.

Norris, Mark A.↗

Quantitative Characterization of Impacts of Coupled Geomechanics and Flow on Safe and Permanent Geological Storage of CO 2 in Fractured Aquifers

This is the final scientific report for the award DE-FE0023305, entitled “Quantitative Characterization of Impacts of Coupled Geomechanics and Flow on Safe and Permanent Geological Storage of CO 2 in Fractured Aquifers.” The work has been divided into six tasks. In Task 2, we characterized rock properties, which are important when developing a quantitative approach for understanding and predicting geomechanical effects on large-scale CO 2 injection and long-term storage in the subsurface. Rock properties of interest for this characterization include porosity, permeability, elastic constants, strength, and heat capacity. We measured rock properties for three different rock types: concrete, sandstone and shale. These properties were obtained from the acoustic measurement, permeability and porosity measurement, Brazilian test, the uniaxial compressive test, and heat capacity measurement. Then, using the Brazilian technique to fracture samples, we measured their permeability under brine injection for varying effective stresses, followed by similar measurements of permeability under sc-CO 2 injection. Permeability to brine and sc-CO 2 decreased as the effective stress increased. The apparent permeability to sc-CO 2 was an order of magnitude less than that for brine, a consequence of CO 2 being the non-wetting fluid. In Task 3, we developed understandings and correlations for CO 2 injection pressure induced fracturing. We initially fractured four eight inch cubes of concrete with brine to establish a standard test procedure. Then, additional concrete samples were fractured using brine. Confining stresses were exerted on the samples and brine was injected at a constant rate into a borehole that was previously drilled into the concrete cube. The borehole pressure was measured and fracture initiation was identified as a peak in the pressure profile. That was followed by fracture propagation, which was identified as a plateau in the pressure profile, and finally the fracture reached the sample surface. The sample surfaces were photographed before and after fracturing, which enabled determination of where the fracture reached the sample surface. Afterwards, aqueous food dye solution was injected into the fractured concrete samples to color the fracture planes. The borehole was filled with food dye solution in advance, a gas pulse was transmitted to the borehole, and the borehole was then shut in to allow the food dye to be driven into existing fractures. Then, the concrete samples were broken down by high-pressure gas injection to reveal the geometry and morphology of the hydraulic fractures. In addition, acoustic measurements were conducted on multiple locations on each face of the concrete samples before and after injection for comparison. This comparison was used to confirm changes in the internal structure of the concrete sample, namely the formation of fractures. There were six concrete samples fractured with brine. Afterwards, concrete samples were fracture using sc-CO 2 . The main change in experimental procedure was the inclusion of temperature control, since in the field, we mostly encounter temperature and pressure conditions above the supercritical point of CO 2 . The concrete samples were pre-heated in an oven to elevate their temperature, and thermal tape was used to heat the CO 2 to a temperature above its supercritical temperature. Two concrete samples were fractured using liquid CO 2 , four concrete samples were fractured using gaseous CO 2 , and twenty two concrete samples were fractured using sc-CO 2 . For the concrete samples fractured using sc-CO 2 , three had pre-existing hydraulic fractures on the surface near the wellbore, and two were water saturated (as opposed to containing only air). Two concrete samples were composite samples, with a high permeability ball in the center, in order to represent CO 2 injection into a high permeability zone surrounded by a low permeability sealing formation. Later, we fractured five shale samples, obtained from the Niobrara shale outcrop, with sc-CO 2 . The injection rate was constant, confining stresses were applied, the shale samples were pre-heated in an oven to the desired temperature, and the sample was then fractured. An analysis of the failure type was done for many of the concrete samples, based on the predicted break down pressure for tensile and shear failure, and it was found that most samples fractured due to shear failure. Also, the presence of induced fractures has little to no effect on the fracture initiation pressure, but significantly changes the fracture morphology. The CO 2 fracturing in water saturated samples behaved much similar to brine induced fracturing. There was a significant difference of breakdown pressure for injection of CO 2 and brine, where the breakdown pressure for CO 2 induced fracturing is generally around the minimum horizontal stress and that for brine is much higher. Finally, the fracture orientation for most samples with large confining stress differential was perpendicular to the minimum horizontal stress. When the stress differential, especially the difference between the two directions with the smallest stresses was small, the fracture orientation was determined not only by the minimum stress direction, but also the magnitude of the confining stress, the tensile strength of the rock, and the breakdown pressure. In Task 4, we modified our coupled flow-geomechanical models to model fracture growth and propagation in storage formations and caprocks. These flow-geomechanical models are TOUGH2-CSM and TOUGH2-FLAC. The TOUGH2-CSM fluid and heat flow formulation is based on the TOUGH2 formulation of mass and energy conservation equations that govern fluid and heat flow in general multiphase, multicomponent, multi-porosity systems. The TOUGH2-CSM simplified geomechanical formulation is based on the linear theory of elasticity applied to multi-porosity non-isothermal (thermo-multi-poroelastic) media. We previously derived, from the fundamental relations of the linear theory of elasticity, an equation relating mean stress, pore pressures, temperatures, and body force (the Mean Stress equation) that we added to the TOUGH2-CSM fluid and heat flow equations. We extended the TOUGH2-CSM simplified geomechanical formulation to calculate the entire stress tensor by deriving equations for stress tensor components from derivatives of the Cartesian thermo-multi-poroelastic Navier equation components. In addition, we derived equations for stress tensor components in rz-coordinates. We solved these geomechanical equations using the integral finite difference method. This method utilizes momentum fluxes obtained by “factoring” a divergence operator out of each geomechanical equation. In Task 5, we did a literature survey to determine suitable correlations for fracture initiation, growth, and propagation. After surveying numerous papers, we modified TOUGH2-CSM to model stress dependent fracture initiation and growth using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion for shear failure in faults and caprock and the condition of negative minimum effective stress for tensile failure. Tensile failure results in a fracture whose width depends on the difference between fracture pressure and minimum stress and whose propagation is based on the difference between the stress intensity factor at the fracture tip and the rock toughness. The TOUGH-FLAC model is based on the FLAC3D ubiquitous joint model, extended for the modeling of permeability changes induced by changes in effective normal stress across fractures as well permeability changes caused by shearing along fractures. In Task 6, we validated our coupled flow-geomechanical models using analytical solutions and problems from the literature. We validated the TOUGH2-CSM modifications using analytical solutions to the displacement from a uniform load on a semi-infinite elastic medium and the two-dimensional Mandel-Cryer effect. Those were followed by a sample problem to test our stress tensor calculations, which was for injection into a single-phase reservoir with constant properties. Comparisons of our simulator to published results were done on for the depletion of a single-phase reservoir with stress dependent porosity, two examples from the In Salah gas project, an axisymmetric baserock–reservoir–caprock system with a normal faulting stress regime that had thermally induced shear stresses, simulations of CO 2 leakage through caprock in a two-dimensional reservoir in Cartesian coordinates, and predictions of caprock failure from CO 2 injection into an axisymmetric reservoir. Finally, we simulated CO 2 injection pressure-induced fracturing from one of our laboratory studies, Sample 39, and obtained a fracture profile. We also validated the TOUGH2-FLAC model for fluid driven fracture growth against solutions based on the KGD model and a case with an inclined fracture that was loaded from the boundaries to achieve wing-crack propagation. The strain softening tensile behavior and softening of modulus considering a simple damage approach was verified by a simulation representing hydraulic fracturing stress measurement around a vertical well. Finally, the model was validated against deep fracture zone opening and surface uplift at In Salah with inverses analysis used to improve the match of simulation with field data. In Task 7, we developed a scheme based on inverse modeling that can be used to identify caprock leakage. Injection of fluid into a reservoir results in a time varying pressure profile that depends on the properties of the rock and the fluid. The presence of significant caprock leakage would effect this pressure profile and we used inverse modeling, namely the Levenberg-Marquardt method, to determine the leakage location from the pressure profile. A two-dimensional and a three-dimensional example based on published data were presented. The published simulation was run and its results were considered as “field” data. In the two-dimensional example, a simulation of CO 2 injection into a two-dimensional aquifer-caprock system, the caprock had a vertical fault through which leakage could occur. The location of this leakage was obtained from our inverse modeling scheme. In the three-dimensional example, the simulation domain had four geological layers, one of which was the injection zone that contained a horizontal injection well. We simulated fractures as high permeability gridblocks, introduced a fracture that spanned the caprock depth, and ran a simulation to obtain “field” data. Then, using our inverse modeling scheme, we obtained the location of that fracture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PMU-Based Decoupled State Estimation for Unsymmetrical Power Systems

Modal decomposition of measurement equations has already been shown to simplify the formulation and resulting computational complexity of three-phase state estimation of systems where all the transmission lines are three-phase and fully transposed. When there are non-transposed and/or mixed-phase lines, modal decomposition can no longer fully decouple the threephase measurement equations. Here, this paper addresses the above shortcoming by proposing a simple yet practical solution based on the commonly used numerical compensation techniques. Thus, it enables application of the powerful decoupling approach to any type of three-phase networks which may contain non-transposed or mixed-phase lines and are fully observable by PMUs. The proposed procedure modifies the measurement set by deriving additive terms that compensate for the neglected unsymmetrical effects. It will be shown that unbalanced systems including nontransposed and mixed-phase elements, can still be transformed into three decoupled subsystems and solved in parallel by the proposed approach. Performance of the proposed algorithm is validated against several IEEE test cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A duality framework for stochastic optimal control of complex systems

In this study, we address the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of interactive subsystems. We formulate a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems and provide a duality framework to prove that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion of the system. We provide the conditions of existence and a geometric interpretation of the solution. For practical situations having constraints consistent with those studied here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value when we seek to derive online the optimal control policy in complex systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction–diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction–diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends existing hybrid methods for reaction–diffusion system. • Our analysis unveils non-trivial macroscopic effects triggered by noise at the level of structuring variables. • Our hybrid method hugely speeds up age-structured SSA simulations while preserving stochastic effects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Re-analysis procedure based on the mixed formulation

An analysis procedure is presented for large-scale structural systems, with large numbers of degrees of freedom and design variables. The procedure uses a mixed formulation with the fundamental unknowns consisting of both stress and displacement parameters. Other elements of the procedure include: (1) lumping the design variables into a single tracing parameter; (2) operator splitting or additive decomposition of different arrays in the finite element equations into the corresponding arrays of the original structure plus correction terms; and (3) application of a reduction method through the use of the finite element method and the classical Bubnov-Galerkin technique. The re-analysis procedure is applied to the linear static and free vibration problems of plate and shell structures.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

A time delay controller for magnetic bearings

The control of systems with unknown dynamics and unpredictable disturbances has raised some challenging problems. This is particularly important when high system performance needs to be guaranteed at all times. Recently, the Time Delay Control has been suggested as an alternative control scheme. The proposed control system does not require an explicit plant model nor does it depend on the estimation of specific plant parameters. Rather, it combines adaptation with past observations to directly estimate the effect of the plant dynamics. A control law is formulated for a class of dynamic systems and a sufficient condition is presented for control systems stability. The derivation is based on the bounded input-bounded output stability approach using L sub infinity function norms. The control scheme is implemented on a five degrees of freedom high speed and high precision magnetic bearing. The control performance is evaluated using step responses, frequency responses, and disturbance rejection properties. The experimental data show an excellent control performance despite the system complexity.

Youcef-Toumi, K.↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Integrating Salinity Measurements from Aquarius into the Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System

This Candidate Solution suggests the use of Aquarius sea surface salinity measurements to improve the NOAA/NCDDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s National Coastal Data Development Center) HABSOS (Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System) DST (decision support tool) by enhancing development and movement forecasts of HAB events as well as potential species identification. In the proposed configuration, recurring salinity measurements from the Aquarius mission would augment HABSOS sea surface temperature and in situ ocean current measurements. Thermohaline circulation observations combined with in situ measurements increase the precision of HAB event movement forecasting. These forecasts allow coastal managers and public health officials to make more accurate and timely warnings to the public and to better direct science teams to event sites for collection and further measurements.

Anderson, Daniel↗

Effect of grid system on finite element calculation

Detailed parametric studies of the effect of grid system on finite element calculation for potential flows were made. These studies led to the formulation of a design criteria for optimum mesh system and the development of two methods to generate the optimum mesh system. The guidelines for optimum mesh system are: (1) the mesh structure should be regular; (2) the element should be as regular and equilateral as possible; (3) the distribution of size of element should be consistent with that of flow variables to insure maximum uniformity in error distribution; (4) for non-Dirichlet boundary conditions, smaller boundary elements or higher order interpolation functions should be used; and (5) the mesh should accommodate the boundary geometry as accurately as possible. The results of the parametric studies are presented.

Lee, K. D.↗

A Model-Based Framework for NASA Science Mission Formulation

This paper details an effort to implement NASA systems engineering standards and practices using a Digital System Model (DSM), which we also refer to as the system architecture model (SAM). Creating a SAM at the beginning of a design effort helps systems engineer identify errors, inconsistencies, and miscommunications as early as possible. Such issues can then be resolved before it becomes costly and requires significant rework to do so. A pre-formulation SAM also enables advanced trade studies at the earliest stage of concept development. This results in “win-wins” where architecture changes can reduce cost without decreasing effectiveness, or increase effectiveness without increasing cost. SAMs also streamline the creation of project documentation and facilitate superior dialogue between science, engineering, and management stakeholders. Common artifacts such as Master Equipment Lists (MELs), Science Traceability Matrices (STMs), and Mission Traceability Matrices (MTMs), can be automatically maintained through requirements and structural models in the SAM. Key performance parameters (and changes to them) can be tied to simulations in the SAM, allowing far more rapid and extensive trade space exploration. As will be shown in this work, these advantages have been realized for the first time in an actual NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) pre-phase A and phase A concept study. Modelbased design tools have been developed in a general, modular manner to maximize reuse on future programs. Focus is placed on structural and requirements architecture modeling. Data is ingested into the SAM from existing discipline model outputs (e.g. MS Excel spreadsheets) and used to update a SysML structural model. A mission requirements model is created within the SAM, containing mission specific as well as standard GSFC mission requirements. With the linked requirements model and structural model, automated compliance checking will be performed as mission parameters evolve without the need for discipline engineers to work directly with the SAM in SysML.

MBSE↗

Formulation, Implementation and Validation of a 1D Boundary Layer Inflow Scheme for the QUIC Modeling System

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of accurate meteorological conditions for urban transport and dispersion calculations. In this work, we present a novel scheme to compute the meteorological input in the Quick Urban & Industrial Complex () diagnostic urban wind solver to improve the characterization of upstream wind veer and shear in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). The new formulation is based on a coupled set of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) derived from the Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, and is fast to compute. Building upon recent progress in modeling the idealized ABL, we include effects from surface roughness, turbulent stress, Coriolis force, buoyancy and baroclinicity. We verify the performance of the new scheme with canonical Large Eddy Simulation (LES) tests with the GPU-accelerated FastEddy"Equation missing" solver in neutral, stable, unstable and baroclinic conditions with different surface roughness. Furthermore, we evaluate QUIC calculations with and without the new inflow scheme with real data from the Urban Threat Dispersion (UTD) field experiment, which includes Lidar-based wind measurements as well as concentration observations from multiple outdoor releases of a non-reactive tracer in downtown New York City. Compared to previous inflow capabilities that were limited to a constant wind direction with height, we show that the new scheme can model wind veer in the ABL and enhance the prediction of the surface cross-isobaric angle, improving evaluation statistics of simulated concentrations paired in time and space with UTD measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On reachability of dynamic systems

A large-scale dynamic system is considered as composed of a number of interconnected subsystems. Input and output reachability of the system is defined as a structural counterpart to controllability and observability. When the system is subject to structural perturbations due to on-off participation of the subsystems, conditions are provided for reachability to be connective, that is, to be invariant under the perturbations. The concept of input and output reachability leads naturally to formulations of input and output decentralized systems. It is shown that such systems are connectively reachable, which is an important structural property of 'large' and 'small' decentralized systems alike. Finally, a procedure is outlined to transform a centralized system into an input or output decentralized system with distinct inputs or outputs assigned to each subsystem separately.

Siljak, D. D.↗