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At least 937 records · Page 52

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗

Plans to improve the experimental limit in the comparison of the east-west and west-east one-way light propagation times on the rotating earth

The preceding paper describes the results so far (interrupted in the Spring of 1989 because of lack of funds) of an experiment comparing the one-way light propagation times on the surface of the rotating Earth. For the 20 Km path length component in the East-West direction the predicted difference between the opposite sense propagation times would be 160 ps, if the approximately 360 Km/s surface speed of the Earth gives effective light speeds of 3 x 10(exp 8) m/s +/- 360 m/s. This could lead to a prediction of the difference between the clock transport and the light pulse synchronization methods described in the preceding paper: delta(T) = 0.5 (160) = 80 ps. The current upper bound of approximately 100 ps for delta(T) is limited by poorly understood systematic errors. The most important seems to be intensity-dependent time delays in the remote light pulse avalanche photo-diode detector. This will be replaced by a continuously operating circular scan streak camera having single photon sensitivity and a time resolution of approximately 5 ps. (This camera has recently been developed by the Xian Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics in the P.R.C.). Better isolation from shocks and vibration for the Sigma-Tau hydrogen maser during transport will be provided. It is hoped that delta(T) is less than 20 ps can be achieved.

Alley, C. O.↗

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Babcock, Chad↗

An evaluation of water vapor radiometer data for calibration of the wet path delay in very long baseline interferometry experiments

The internal consistency of the baseline-length measurements derived from analysis of several independent VLBI experiments is an estimate of the measurement precision. The paper investigates whether the inclusion of water vapor radiometer (WVR) data as an absolute calibration of the propagation delay due to water vapor improves the precision of VLBI baseline-length measurements. The paper analyzes 28 International Radio Interferometric Surveying runs between June 1988 and January 1989; WVR measurements were made during each session. The addition of WVR data decreased the scatter of the length measurements of the baselines by 5-10 percent. The observed reduction in the scatter of the baseline lengths is less than what is expected from the behavior of the formal errors, which suggest that the baseline-length measurement precision should improve 10-20 percent if WVR data are included in the analysis. The discrepancy between the formal errors and the baseline-length results can be explained as the consequence of systematic errors in the dry-mapping function parameters, instrumental biases in the WVR and the barometer, or both.

Kuehn, C. E.↗

Long-Time Numerical Integration of the Three-Dimensional Wave Equation in the Vicinity of a Moving Source

We propose a family of algorithms for solving numerically a Cauchy problem for the three-dimensional wave equation. The sources that drive the equation (i.e., the right-hand side) are compactly supported in space for any given time; they, however, may actually move in space with a subsonic speed. The solution is calculated inside a finite domain (e.g., sphere) that also moves with a subsonic speed and always contains the support of the right-hand side. The algorithms employ a standard consistent and stable explicit finite-difference scheme for the wave equation. They allow one to calculate tile solution for arbitrarily long time intervals without error accumulation and with the fixed non-growing amount of tile CPU time and memory required for advancing one time step. The algorithms are inherently three-dimensional; they rely on the presence of lacunae in the solutions of the wave equation in oddly dimensional spaces. The methodology presented in the paper is, in fact, a building block for constructing the nonlocal highly accurate unsteady artificial boundary conditions to be used for the numerical simulation of waves propagating with finite speed over unbounded domains.

Ryabenkii, V. S.↗

Attitude Sensor Pseudonoise

Even assuming perfect attitude sensors and gyros, sensor measurements on a vibrating spacecraft have apparent errors. These apparent sensor errors, referred to as pseudonoise, arise because gyro and sensor measurements are performed at discrete times. This paper explains the concept of pseudonoise, quantifies its behavior, and discusses the effect of vibrations that are nearly commensurate with measurement periods. Although pseudonoise does not usually affect attitude determination it does affect sensor performance evaluation. Attitude rates are usually computed from differences between pairs of accumulated angle measurements at different times and are considered constant in the periods between measurements. Propagation using these rates does not reproduce exact instantaneous spacecraft attitudes except at the gyro measurement times. Exact sensor measurements will therefore be inconsistent with estimates based on the propagated attitude. This inconsistency produces pseudonoise. The characteristics of pseudonoise were determined using a simple, one-dimensional model of spacecraft vibration. The statistical properties of the deviations of measurements from model truth were determined using this model and a range of different periods of sensor and rate measurements. This analysis indicates that the magnitude of pseudonoise depends on the ratio of the spacecraft vibration period to the time between gyro measurements and can be as much as twice the amplitude of the vibration. In cases where the vibration period and gyro or sensor measurement period are nearly commensurate, unexpected changes in pseudonoise occur.

Hashmall, Joseph A.↗

Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order

A recently developed algorithm for demodulation and decoding of a pulse-position- modulation (PPM) signal is suitable as a basis for designing a single hardware decoding apparatus to be capable of handling any PPM order. Hence, this algorithm offers advantages of greater flexibility and lower cost, in comparison with prior such algorithms, which necessitate the use of a distinct hardware implementation for each PPM order. In addition, in comparison with the prior algorithms, the present algorithm entails less complexity in decoding at large orders. An unavoidably lengthy presentation of background information, including definitions of terms, is prerequisite to a meaningful summary of this development. As an aid to understanding, the figure illustrates the relevant processes of coding, modulation, propagation, demodulation, and decoding. An M-ary PPM signal has M time slots per symbol period. A pulse (signifying 1) is transmitted during one of the time slots; no pulse (signifying 0) is transmitted during the other time slots. The information intended to be conveyed from the transmitting end to the receiving end of a radio or optical communication channel is a K-bit vector u. This vector is encoded by an (N,K) binary error-correcting code, producing an N-bit vector a. In turn, the vector a is subdivided into blocks of m = log2(M) bits and each such block is mapped to an M-ary PPM symbol. The resultant coding/modulation scheme can be regarded as equivalent to a nonlinear binary code. The binary vector of PPM symbols, x is transmitted over a Poisson channel, such that there is obtained, at the receiver, a Poisson-distributed photon count characterized by a mean background count nb during no-pulse time slots and a mean signal-plus-background count of ns+nb during a pulse time slot. In the receiver, demodulation of the signal is effected in an iterative soft decoding process that involves consideration of relationships among photon counts and conditional likelihoods of m-bit vectors of coded bits. Inasmuch as the likelihoods of all the m-bit vectors of coded bits mapping to the same PPM symbol are correlated, the best performance is obtained when the joint mbit conditional likelihoods are utilized. Unfortunately, the complexity of decoding, measured in the number of operations per bit, grows exponentially with m, and can thus become prohibitively expensive for large PPM orders. For a system required to handle multiple PPM orders, the cost is even higher because it is necessary to have separate decoding hardware for each order. This concludes the prerequisite background information. In the present algorithm, the decoding process as described above is modified by, among other things, introduction of an lbit marginalizer sub-algorithm. The term "l-bit marginalizer" signifies that instead of m-bit conditional likelihoods, the decoder computes l-bit conditional likelihoods, where l is fixed. Fixing l, regardless of the value of m, makes it possible to use a single hardware implementation for any PPM order. One could minimize the decoding complexity and obtain an especially simple design by fixing l at 1, but this would entail some loss of performance. An intermediate solution is to fix l at some value, greater than 1, that may be less than or greater than m. This solution makes it possible to obtain the desired flexibility to handle any PPM order while compromising between complexity and loss of performance.

Moision, Bruce E.↗

The effects of the Asselin time filter on numerical solutions to the linearized shallow-water wave equations

In the present investigation, a one-dimensional linearized analysis is used to determine the effect of Asselin's (1972) time filter on both the computational stability and phase error of numerical solutions for the shallow water wave equations, in cases with diffusion but without rotation. An attempt has been made to establish the approximate optimal values of the filtering parameter nu for each of the 'lagged', Dufort-Frankel, and Crank-Nicholson diffusion schemes, suppressing the computational wave mode without materially altering the physical wave mode. It is determined that in the presence of diffusion, the optimum filter length depends on whether waves are undergoing significant propagation. When moderate propagation is present, with or without diffusion, the Asselin filter has little effect on the spatial phase lag of the physical mode for the leapfrog advection scheme of the three diffusion schemes considered.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Isospin 0 and 2 two-pion scattering at physical pion mass using all-to-all propagators with periodic boundary conditions in lattice QCD

A study of two-pion scattering for the isospin channels, 𝐼 = 0 and 𝐼 = 2, using lattice QCD is presented. Möbius domain-wall fermions, on top of the Iwasaki-DSDR gauge action for gluons with periodic boundary conditions, are used for the lattice computations, which are carried out on two ensembles of gauge field configurations generated by the RBC and UKQCD Collaborations with physical masses, inverse lattice spacings of 1.023 and 1.378 GeV, and spatial extents of 𝐿 = 4.63 and 4.58 fm, respectively. The all-to-all propagator method is employed to compute a matrix of correlation functions of two-pion operators. The generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) is solved for a matrix of correlation functions to extract phase shifts with multiple states—two pions with a nonzero relative momentum, as well as two pions at rest. Our results for phase shifts for both the 𝐼 = 0 and 𝐼 = 2 channels are consistent with the Roy equation and chiral perturbation theory, though at this preliminary stage our errors for 𝐼 = 0 are large. An important outcome of this work is that we are successful in extracting two-pion excited states, which are useful for studying 𝐾 → 𝜋⁢𝜋 decay, on physical-mass ensembles using the GEVP.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts

The systematic error in the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) medium-range operational forecasts of the global divergence during 1987 and 1988 is examined in this study. As in other operational NWP models the NMC model has too weak an annual mean, annual cycle, and 30-60 day oscillation. This weakness shows up after only a few days, especially over the monsoon region and tropical areas. When the intraseasonal oscillation amplitude is large the model predictive skill is improved. The eastward propagation of the low-frequency mode is well predicted throughout the 10-day forecast period. The north-south migration of the tropical Hadley circulation, depicted primarily by the annual-cycle mode, is also weaker although the phase pattern predicted by the MRF is consistent with analyses.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

Polarization and Compressibility of Oblique Kinetic Alfven Waves

Even though solar wind, as a collisionless plasma, is properly described by the kineticMaxwell-Vlasov description, it can be argued that much of our understanding of solar wind observational data comes from an interpretation and numerical modeling which is based on a fluid description of magnetohydrodynamics. In recent years, there has been a significant interest in better understanding the importance of kinetic effects, i.e. the differences between the kinetic and usual fluid descriptions. Here we concentrate on physical properties of oblique kinetic Alfvn waves (KAWs), which are often recognized as one of the key ingredients in the solar wind turbulence cascade. We use three different fluid models with various degrees of complexity and calculate polarization and magnetic compressibility of oblique KAWs (propagation angle q = 88), which we compare to solutions derived from linear kinetic theory. We explore a wide range of possible proton plasma b = [0.1,10.0] and a wide range of length scales krL = [0.001,10.0]. It is shown that the classical isotropic two-fluid model is very compressible in comparison with kinetic theory and that the largest discrepancy occurs at scales larger than the proton gyroscale. We also show that the two-fluid model contains a large error in the polarization of electric field, even at scales krL 1. Furthermore, to understand these discrepancies between the two-fluid model and the kinetic theory, we employ two versions of the Landau fluid model that incorporate linear low-frequency kinetic effects such as Landau damping and finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections into the fluid description. It is shown that Landau damping significantly reduces the magnetic compressibility and that FLR corrections (i.e. nongyrotropic contributions) are required to correctly capture the polarization.We also show that, in addition to Landau damping, FLR corrections are necessary to accurately describe the damping rate of KAWs. We conclude that kinetic effects are important even at scales which are significantly larger than the proton gyroscale krL 1.

Turbulence↗

Optimal design of acoustic metamaterial cloaks under uncertainty

In this work, we consider the problem of optimal design of an acoustic cloak under uncertainty and develop scalable approximation and optimization methods to solve this problem. The design variable is taken as an infinite-dimensional spatially-varying field that represents the material property, while an additive infinite-dimensional random field represents the variability of the material property or the manufacturing error. Discretization of this optimal design problem results in high-dimensional design variables and uncertain parameters. To solve this problem, we develop a computational approach based on a Taylor approximation and an approximate Newton method for optimization, which is based on a Hessian derived at the mean of the random field. We show our approach is scalable with respect to the dimension of both the design variables and uncertain parameters, in the sense that the necessary number of acoustic wave propagations is essentially independent of these dimensions, for numerical experiments with up to one million design variables and half a million uncertain parameters. Additionally, we demonstrate that, using our computational approach, an optimal design of the acoustic cloak that is robust to material uncertainty is achieved in a tractable manner. The optimal design under uncertainty problem is posed and solved for the classical circular obstacle surrounded by a ring-shaped cloaking region, subjected to both a single-direction single-frequency incident wave and multiple-direction multiple-frequency incident waves. Finally, we apply the method to a deterministic large-scale optimal cloaking problem with complex geometry, to demonstrate that the approximate Newton method’s Hessian computation is viable for large, complex problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

StressNet - Deep learning to predict stress with fracture propagation in brittle materials

Abstract Catastrophic failure in brittle materials is often due to the rapid growth and coalescence of cracks aided by high internal stresses. Hence, accurate prediction of maximum internal stress is critical to predicting time to failure and improving the fracture resistance and reliability of materials. Existing high-fidelity methods, such as the Finite-Discrete Element Model (FDEM), are limited by their high computational cost. Therefore, to reduce computational cost while preserving accuracy, a deep learning model, StressNet, is proposed to predict the entire sequence of maximum internal stress based on fracture propagation and the initial stress data. More specifically, the Temporal Independent Convolutional Neural Network (TI-CNN) is designed to capture the spatial features of fractures like fracture path and spall regions, and the Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (Bi-LSTM) Network is adapted to capture the temporal features. By fusing these features, the evolution in time of the maximum internal stress can be accurately predicted. Moreover, an adaptive loss function is designed by dynamically integrating the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), to reflect the fluctuations in maximum internal stress. After training, the proposed model is able to compute accurate multi-step predictions of maximum internal stress in approximately 20 seconds, as compared to the FDEM run time of 4 h, with an average MAPE of 2% relative to test data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Polarization radar measurements in rain at 5 and 9 GHz

Potential techniques for measuring rainfall rate R and rainwater content W at 9 and 5 GHz are explored. An investigation is made of a previous technique to use the polarization propagation differential phase shift with increasing distance from the radar Phi(H-V) to estimate and remove the effects of specific and polarization differential attenuation from Z(H) and Z(DR), respectively. It is shown that in rain this technique is sensitive to variations in the drop-size distribution. It is confirmed that Phi(H-V) can be used to extend the distance over which useful measurements of Z(H) and Z(DR) can be obtained. While residual errors introduced by attenuation and the 'noise' from the correction scheme itself eclipse the potential of many possible techniques for quantitative rainfall measurements at these frequencies, the attenuation recovery scheme is argued to be adequate for obtaining useful polarization microphysical measurements, particularly above the melting level, even after encounters with rain.

Jameson, A. R.↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

Machine-learning prediction for quasiparton distribution function matrix elements

There have been rapid developments in the direct calculation in lattice QCD (LQCD) of the Bjorken-x dependence of hadron structure through large-momentum effective theory (LaMET). LaMET overcomes the previous limitation of LQCD to moments (that is, integrals over Bjorken x) of hadron structure, allowing LQCD to directly provide the kinematic regions where the experimental values are least known. LaMET requires large-momentum hadron states to minimize its systematics and allow us to reach small- x reliably. This means that very fine lattice spacing to minimize lattice artifacts at order $(P_za)^n$ will become crucial for next-generation LaMET-like structure calculations. Furthermore, such calculations require operators with long Wilson-link displacements, especially in finer lattice units, increasing the communication costs relative to that of the propagator inversion. In this work, we explore whether machine-learning algorithms can make predictions of correlators to reduce the computational cost of these LQCD calculations. We consider two algorithms, gradient-boosting decision tree and linear models, applied to LaMET data, the matrix elements needed to determine the kaon and $η_s$ unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs), meson distribution amplitude (DA), and the nucleon gluon PDF. We find that both algorithms can reliably predict the target observables with different prediction accuracy and systematic errors. The predictions from smaller displacement z to larger ones work better than those for momentum p due to the higher correlation among the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Performance of noncoherent MFSK channels with coding

Computer simulation of data transmission over a noncoherent channel with predetection signal-to-noise ratio of 1 shows that convolutional coding can reduce the energy requirement by 4.5 dB at a bit error rate of 0.001. The effects of receiver quantization and choice of number of tones are analyzed; nearly optimum performance is attained with eight quantization levels and sixteen tones at predetection S/N ratio of 1. The effects of changing predetection S/N ratio are also analyzed; for lower predetection S/N ratio, accurate extrapolations can be made from the data, but for higher values, the results are more complicated. These analyses will be useful in designing telemetry systems when coherence is limited by turbulence in the signal propagation medium or oscillator instability.

Butman, S. A.↗

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

data quality↗