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DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as time series data shifts. In this research, a changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window across the labeled data sets. Pending approval, we plan to release the labeled data sets for this research on NREL's DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package. By supplying the training sets and algorithm, we hope to encourage further development in this research space.

data shift↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measuring error rates of mid-circuit measurements

High-fidelity mid-circuit measurements, which read out the state of specific qubits in a multiqubit processor without destroying them or disrupting their neighbors, are a critical component for useful quantum computing. They enable fault-tolerant quantum error correction, dynamic circuits, and other paths to solving classically intractable problems. But there are few methods to assess their performance comprehensively. In this work, we address this gap by introducing the first randomized benchmarking protocol that measures the rate at which mid-circuit measurements induce errors in many-qubit circuits. Using this protocol, we detect and eliminate previously undetected measurement-induced crosstalk in a 20-qubit trapped-ion quantum computer. Then, we use the same protocol to measure the rate of measurement-induced crosstalk error on a 27-qubit IBM Q processor, and quantify how much of that error is eliminated by dynamical decoupling.

Hothem, Daniel [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗

NASA NTRS1994

A method for correcting aspect solution errors in ROSAT HRI observations of compact sources

X-ray point sources observed with the ROSAT High Resolution Imager (HRI) often appear elongated over scales of approximately 5 sec-10 sec from the image core. This elongation has been attributed to errors in the attitude correction as the satellite is wobbled during the observations, and affects sources with both soft and hard X-ray spectra. In this paper, I report the results of an attempt to rid a high signal-to-noise observation of the soft X-ray point source HZ 43 of its characteristic elongation. I divided the observation into 181 separate images, each containing photons from only a small region on the detector through which the source passed during the satellite's wobble. By measuring the positions of the individual image centroids, I found clear evidence for systematic offsets from a common mean by up to approximately +/- 3 sec in both right ascension and declination as a function of phase in the satellite wobble. Shifting the subimages to a common center and then restacking them into a single image measurably improved the symmetry of the point-spread function. HRI observations are wobbled primarily to smooth out variations in the pixel-to-pixel sensitivity of the detector and also to extend the lifetime of the microchannel plates in the detector since these decay at a given location as a function of the number of photons detected. However, the elongations introduced by the aspect errors inhibit the identification of possible extended X-ray emission associated with sources such as pulsars and active galactic nuclei. In light of these results, I suggest that until the aspect errors are understood, observations of compact sources, where this effect may be important, should not be wobbled.

Morse, Jon A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the possibility of baryon acoustic oscillation measurements at redshift z > 7.6 with the Roman space telescope

ABSTRACT The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (RST), with its field of view and high sensitivity will make surveys of cosmological large-scale structure possible at high redshifts. We investigate the possibility of detecting baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) at redshifts z > 7.6 for use as a standard ruler. We use data from the hydrodynamic simulation bluetides in conjunction with the gigaparsec-scale Outer Rim simulation and a model for patchy reionization to create mock RST High Latitude Survey grism data for Lyman α emission line selected galaxies at redshifts z = 7.4 to z = 10, covering 2280 deg2. We measure the monopoles of galaxies in the mock catalogues and fit the BAO features. We find that for a line flux of $L = 7\times 10^{-17} \ {\rm erg\, s^{-1}\, cm}^{-2}$, the 5σ detection limit for the current design, the BAO feature is partially detectable (measured in three out of four survey quadrants analysed independently). The resulting root mean square error on the angular diameter distance to z = 7.7 is 7.9 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. If we improve the detection sensitivity by a factor of two (i.e. $L = 3.5\times 10^{-17} \ {\rm erg\, s^{-1}\, cm}^{-2}$), the distance error reduces to $1.4{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. We caution that many more factors are yet to be modelled, including dust obscuration, the damping wing due to the intergalactic medium, and low redshift interlopers. If these issues do not strongly affect the results, or different observational techniques (such as use of multiple lines) can mitigate them, RST, or similar instruments may be able to constrain the angular diameter distance to the high redshift universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Error control coding for satellite and space communications

The optical direct detection channel is discussed. It is shown how simple trellis coded modulation can be used to improve performance or increase throughput (in bits per second) without a bandwidth expansion and no performance loss. In fact, a modest performance gain can be achieved. The concentration is on signals derived from the pulse-position modulation format by allowing overlap.

Georghiades, Costas N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials through Computer Vision

2d materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2026

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. Here we employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science. ML is often not just a matter of straightforward application, and pretrained models proved ineffective in this case. Instead, we trained our own neural network (NN) and applied data augmentation techniques and fine-tuning to the training dataset. Since labeled microscopy data is often scarce, we developed training data from a previously published wide-frame MXene image, using customized Gaussian fitting to locate atomic positions. Our trained model was then applied to a large dataset of experimental images, enabling a statistical study of defect configurations across three samples prepared with different HF etchant concentrations (5%, 9.1%, and 12.5%), as shown in Fig. 1. This also allowed us to investigate local strain around vacancies, though we find that we are limited by the precision of measurements using high-angle annular dark field (HAADF) images, as shown in Fig. 2. This study demonstrates how ML enables large-scale, quantitative analysis of atomic defects - an otherwise infeasible task with traditional methods. While our NN was specialized for Ti3C2 MXenes, the pipeline we developed provides a foundation for future ML models tailored to other materials. Ultimately, we envision embedding the NN onto the microscope to give real-time feedback to the user. To make this a reality, continued work is necessary to fully understand the NN's capabilities and limitations. This study gets one step closer to our goals of automated experimentation moving away from traditional methods of manual labeling. As ML capabilities advance, we hope to continue adapting and applying these techniques in microscopy.

2D materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Satellite Laser Ranging Station Data and Operational Anomalies with Machine Learning Isolation Forests at NASA's CDDIS

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) is currently composed of 45 active satellite laser ranging (SLR) stations with several more set to join the network over the next several years. Station changes and histories are logged to files, but not always in real time. Sometimes these details are not added until long after changes have been made to the station –on occasion, years later. This in addition to unexpected hardware errors and other system issues that are not immediately detected impact the products generated by analysts. The ILRS Central Bureau (CB) and NASA’s Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) have worked to provide tools for station engineers to use. This includes the creation of station plots which contain temperature and pressure information along with LAser GEOdynamic Satellite (LAGEOS) and LAser RElativity Satellite (LARES) tracking information that enable the monitoring of station performance and todetermine whether the station has undergone any changes. As next steps, the CDDIS is working to enhance these station performance monitoring tools through machine learning. Isolation forest is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm commonly applied to anomaly detection. In this poster, the CDDIS details the steps taken to track anomalies within SLR station performance using isolation forest with LAGEOS and LARES satellite data.

Benjamin P Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporally Adaptive Compression for Scientific Dataset with Feature Preservation – A Case Study on Simulation Data with Extreme Climate Events Analysis

Scientific discoveries are increasingly constrained by limited storage space and I/O capacities. For time-series simulations and experiments, their data often need to be decimated over timesteps to accommodate storage and I/O limitations. In this paper, we propose a technique that addresses storage costs while improving post-analysis accuracy through spatiotemporal adaptive, error-controlled lossy compression. We investigate the trade-off between data precision and temporal output rates, revealing that reducing data precision and increasing timestep frequency lead to more accurate analysis outcomes. Additionally, we integrate spatiotemporal feature detection with data compression and demonstrate that performing adaptive error-bounded compression in higher dimensional space enables greater compression ratios, leveraging the error propagation theory of a transformation-based compressor. To evaluate our approach, we conduct experiments using the well-known E3SM climate simulation code and apply our method to compress variables used for cyclone tracking. Our results show a significant reduction in storage size while enhancing the quality of cyclone tracking analysis, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in comparison to the prevalent timestep decimation approach. Compared to three state-of-the-art lossy compressors lacking feature preservation capabilities, our adaptive compression framework improves perfectly matched cases in TC tracking by 26.4-51.3% at medium compression ratios and by 77.3-571.1% at large compression ratios, with a merely 5–11% computational overhead.

Gong, Qian↗

DOE OSTI2020

PLEXUS: A Pattern-Oriented Runtime System Architecture for Resilient Extreme-Scale High-Performance Computing Systems

For high-performance computing (HPC) system designers and users, meeting the myriad challenges of next-generation exascale supercomputing systems requires rethinking their approach to application and system software design. Among these challenges, providing resiliency and stability to the scientific applications in the presence of high fault rates requires new approaches to software architecture and design. As HPC systems become increasingly complex, they require intricate solutions for detection and mitigation for various modes of faults and errors that occur in these large-scale systems, as well as solutions for failure recovery. These resiliency solutions often interact with and affect other system properties, including application scalability, power and energy efficiency. Therefore, resilience solutions for HPC systems must be thoughtfully engineered and deployed.In previous work, we developed the concept of resilience design patterns, which consist of templated solutions based on well-established techniques for detection, mitigation and recovery. In this paper, we use these patterns as the foundation to propose new approaches to designing runtime systems for HPC systems. The instantiation of these patterns within a runtime system enables flexible and adaptable end-to-end resiliency solutions for HPC environments. The paper describes the architecture of the runtime system, named Plexus, and the strategies for dynamically composing and adapting pattern instances under runtime control. This runtime-based approach enables actively balancing the cost-benefit trade-off between performance overhead and protection coverage of the resilience solutions. Based on a prototype implementation of PLEXUS, we demonstrate the resiliency and performance gains achieved by the pattern-based runtime system for a parallel linear solver application.

Hukerikar, Saurabh↗

NASA NTRS1982

Einstein observations of the 1978 November 19 gamma ray burst source field

It is pointed out that several years after the discovery of cosmic gamma ray bursts (GRB) their sources have not yet been identified, although searches have been conducted in optical, X-ray, and radio wavelengths. The three smallest error boxes are now related to the events of Mar. 5, 1979, Apr. 6, 1979, and Nov. 19, 1978. X-ray observations, with the Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) of the Einstein Observatory, were made for all three locations. A description is presented of the results of the 8200 second IPC observation of the Nov. 19, 1978 GRB, made on July 1 and 2, 1980. Three sources were detected. However, two of them were outside the GRB error box. The third source is located well inside the burst error box.

Pizzichini, G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Analysis Of Lock Detection In Costas Loops

Report presents analysis of detection of phase lock in Costas loops, used in coherent binary-phase-shift-keying communication systems to track both subcarrier and suppressed carrier signals. Detection of phase lock important part of operation and monitoring of operation of Costas or other tracking loop, provides insight into behavior of loop in real time. Focuses on effects of phase jitter and correlation between samples of phase error in all-digital Costas loop, in which lock detection implemented via algorithm. Applicable to both sinusoidal and square-law carrier signals, incorporates new mathematical models of square-law and absolute-value detectors.

Mileant, Alexander↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measuring the electron temperature and identifying plasma detachment using machine learning and spectroscopy

A machine learning approach has been implemented to measure the electron temperature directly from the emission spectra of a tokamak plasma. This approach utilized a neural network (NN) trained on a dataset of 1865 time slices from operation of the DIII-D tokamak using extreme ultraviolet/vacuum ultraviolet emission spectroscopy matched with high-accuracy divertor Thomson scattering measurements of the electron temperature, T e . This NN is shown to be particularly good at predicting T e at low temperatures (T e < 10 eV) where the NN demonstrated a mean average error of less than 1 eV. Trained to detect plasma detachment in the tokamak divertor, a NN classifier was able to correctly identify detached states (T e < 5 eV) with a 99% accuracy (an F 1 score of 0.96) at an acquisition rate 10× faster than the Thomson scattering measurement. The performance of the model is understood by examining a set of 4800 theoretical spectra generated using collisional radiative modeling that was also used to predict the performance of a low-cost spectrometer viewing nitrogen emission in the visible wavelengths. Furthermore, these results provide a proof-of-principle that low-cost spectrometers leveraged with machine learning can be used to boost the performance of more expensive diagnostics on fusion devices and be used independently as a fast and accurate T e measurement and detachment classifier.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identifying Anomalous DESI Galaxy Spectra with a Variational Autoencoder

The tens of millions of spectra being captured by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provide tremendous discovery potential. In this work we show how Machine Learning, in particular Variational Autoencoders (VAE), can detect anomalies in a sample of approximately 200,000 DESI spectra comprising galaxies, quasars and stars. We demonstrate that the VAE can compress the dimensionality of a spectrum by a factor of 100, while still retaining enough information to accurately reconstruct spectral features. We then detect anomalous spectra as those with high reconstruction error and those which are isolated in the VAE latent representation. The anomalies identified fall into two categories: spectra with artefacts and spectra with unique physical features. Awareness of the former can help to improve the DESI spectroscopic pipeline; whilst the latter can lead to the identification of new and unusual objects. To further curate the list of outliers, we use the Astronomaly package which employs Active Learning to provide personalised outlier recommendations for visual inspection. In this work we also explore the VAE latent space, finding that different object classes and subclasses are separated despite being unlabelled. We demonstrate the interpretability of this latent space by identifying tracks within it that correspond to various spectral characteristics. For example, we find tracks that correspond to increasing star formation and increase in broad emission lines along the Balmer series. In upcoming work we hope to apply the methods presented here to search for both systematics and astrophysically interesting objects in much larger datasets of DESI spectra.

Nicolaou, C. [University Coll. London] (ORCID:0000↗

NASA NTRS1977

Receiver performance evaluator

Signal-to-noise ratio is estimated, and bit errors in Manchester-encoded data streams are detected, using microprocessor-based test set.

Cusack, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The application of an optical Fourier spectrum analyzer on detecting defects in mass-produced satellite photographs

Various defects in mass-produced pictures transmitted to earth from a satellite are investigated. It is found that the following defects are readily detectable via Fourier spectrum analysis: (1) bit slip, (2) breakup causing loss of image, and (3) disabled track at the top of the imagery. The scratches made on the film during mass production, which are difficult to detect by visual observation, also show themselves readily in Fourier spectrum analysis. A relation is established between the number of scratches, their width and depth and the intensity of their Fourier spectra. Other defects that are found to be equally suitable for Fourier spectrum analysis or visual (image analysis) detection are synchronous loss without blurring of image, and density variation in gray scale. However, the Fourier spectrum analysis is found to be unsuitable for detection of such defects as pin holes, annotation error, synchronous loss with blurring of images, and missing image in the beginning of the work order. The design of an automated, real time system, which will reject defective films, is treated.

Athale, R.↗