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NASA NTRS2016

Application of Interval Predictor Models to Space Radiation Shielding

This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (i) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ii) the predicted output interval, and (iii) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certi cate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data over tting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the ux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Energy Scale Calibration and Drift Correction of TES Detectors for Athena X-IFU

The Athena X-Ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) comprises a 2376-pixel array of transition edge sensors (TES) read out with time-division multiplexing (TDM). X-IFU will provide spatially resolved, high-resolution spectroscopy (2.5 eV full-width-half-maximum up to 7 keV) over the energy range 0.2 to 12 keV, with an absolute energy scale accuracy of 0.4 eV. The energy scale function maps the optimally filtered pulse height, in arbitrary engineering units, to real calibrated energy. Uncertainties in the calibration can result from imperfect fitting of the energy scale between the known calibration points. Furthermore, temporal changes in the TES operating environment, such as heat-sink temperature, magnetic field and bias voltage, can cause significant variations in the detector gain function over time. If not properly corrected, this can result in degradation of the energy resolution, and systematic errors in the absolute energy scale. The non-linear nature of TES detectors, coupled with the possibility of multiple simultaneously occurring sources of drift, can make effective corrections over the full bandpass of the instrument extremely challenging. Athena X-IFU will employ an on-board calibration source that provides known reference x-ray lines. This provides real-time monitoring of the gain stability of the detector system and information that can be used to correct for gain drifts. For X-IFU the baseline approach is to measure a series of calibration curves under different environmental conditions, which bound the expected drifts the instrument is predicted to see over the course of the mission. Using the information from the in-flight calibration source, these energy scale functions can be interpolated to generate a new corrected energy scale as a function of time. In this paper we discuss progress towards demonstrating that the X-IFU energy scale requirements can be met. We present measurements on ~ 200 pixels in a prototype X-IFU array read out with 8-column x 32-row TDM. We use a rotating target source containing 12 fluorescent targets to generate x-ray lines covering the energy range 4 keV (Sc-Kα) to 12 keV (Br-Kα). We present measurements of the non-linear energy scale function and show how variations in heat-sink temperature, TES bias voltage and magnetic field affect the shape of TES energy scale differently and introduce different residual gain errors over the bandpass. We explore different drift correction algorithms that use either a single or multiple referential lines to track and correct the gain from these various sources of drift. In addition to the pulse-height, the DC ‘baseline’ level of the TES can contain information about its bias conditions. Thus, we test a multi-parameter gain correction algorithm that attempts to incorporate both the pulse height and the additional baseline information into the algorithm.

Stephen J Smith↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification and Validation Tests of Gamma Library of MC2-3 for Coupled Neutron and Gamma Heating Calculation

For the accurate assessment of the heat generation rate in fast reactors, the gamma library of MC2 -3 and the MC2 -3 + GAMSOR procedure employing the coupled neutron and gamma heating calculation has been thoroughly verified against Monte Carlo results and validated using the ZPPR-15D gamma dose measurement data. NJOY outputs are post-processed in a consistent way with the NJOY procedure to avoid any missing data or double counting of data. Prompt heating for 379 out of 391 isotopes in the gamma library was verified against MCNP6.2 to within 1% relative error in total heating for most isotopes. For both a simple one-dimensional slab problem representing a sodium cooled fast reactor and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) benchmark problem, the root-mean-square values of assembly power error were less than 0.5% for fuel assemblies, ~1% in blankets and ~1 to ~3% in reflectors compared to MCNP6.2 results. The most plausible cause for the 3% error in a reflector assembly is believed to be the error in the multigroup neutron cross sections for the reflector assembly. For validation, gamma doses measured with thermoluminiscent dosimeters (TLDs) in the ZPPR-15D experiment were calculated using GAMSOR. Due to the uncertainty in the TLD measurement with regards to the energy deposition of photons and neutrons, the validation data leads to a 12.7% uncertainty on the experimental measurement. With this uncertainty bound, the calculated doses all fell within one standard deviation of the measured value. Combined with the accurate calculation of reaction rate distributions and neutron spectrum measurements, these results indicate good agreement for the neutron and gamma heating calculations that were performed.

coupled neutron and gamma heating↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2006

Considerations for Isochronous Data Services over the Proximity-1 Space Link

Future mission concepts for robotic and human explorations will involve a high level of real time control/monitoring operations such as tele-operation for spacecraft rendezvous and surface mobile platforms carrying life-support equipments. The timely dissemination of voice, command, and real-time telemetry for monitoring and coordination purposes is critical for mission success. It is envisioned that future missions will require a network infrastructure capable of supporting isochronous data services. The CCSDS Proximity-1 Space Link Protocol1 could be used to carry isochronous traffic. This paper we will focus on the data link layer portion of the Proximity-1 protocol specification and analyze its jitter and performance for supporting isochronous applications. In particular we will focus on constrained scenarios where the protocol operates in full-duplex mode, carrying isochronous traffic in one direction and error-controlled traffic in the other direction. We analyze the impact of the strict priority scheme in Proximity-1 used to arbitrate channel access on the latency jitter of the isochronous traffic and the efficiency of the reliable data transfer. In general, jitter performance is driven by the loading of the acknowledgement traffic on the forward link. Under light loading condition, the upper-bound of the delay jitter is the transmission duration of an acknowledgement frame on the forward link; for higher loading scenarios, the maximum jitter is scaled up by the inverse of the residual bandwidth, i.e., the spare capacity available in the forward link after accounting for the acknowledgement traffic. We derive analytical expression on the maximum jitter and discuss its performance.

space link↗

NASA NTRS1986

An ab initio investigation of possible intermediates in the reaction of the hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl radicals

Ab initio quantum chemical techniques have been used to investigate covalently-bonded and hydrogen-bonded species that may be important intermediates in the reaction of hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl radicals. Stable structures of both types were identified. Basic sets of polarized double-zeta quality and large scale configuration interaction wave functions have been utilized. Based upon electronic energies, the covalently-bonded HOOOH species is found to be 26.4 kcal/mol more stable than the OH and HO2 radicals. Similarly, the hydrogen-bonded HO-HO2 species is found to have an electronic energy 4.7 kcal/mol below that of the component radicals, after correction is made for the basis set superposition error. The hydrogen-bonded form is found to be planar, to possess one relatively 'normal' hydrogen bond, and to have lowest energy 3A-prime and 1A-prime states that are essentially degenerate. The 1A-double prime and 3A-double prime excited states produced by rotation of the unpaired OH electron into the molecular plane are found to be very slightly bound.

Jackels, C. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

ALPS: A Linear Program Solver

ALPS is a computer program which can be used to solve general linear program (optimization) problems. ALPS was designed for those who have minimal linear programming (LP) knowledge and features a menu-driven scheme to guide the user through the process of creating and solving LP formulations. Once created, the problems can be edited and stored in standard DOS ASCII files to provide portability to various word processors or even other linear programming packages. Unlike many math-oriented LP solvers, ALPS contains an LP parser that reads through the LP formulation and reports several types of errors to the user. ALPS provides a large amount of solution data which is often useful in problem solving. In addition to pure linear programs, ALPS can solve for integer, mixed integer, and binary type problems. Pure linear programs are solved with the revised simplex method. Integer or mixed integer programs are solved initially with the revised simplex, and the completed using the branch-and-bound technique. Binary programs are solved with the method of implicit enumeration. This manual describes how to use ALPS to create, edit, and solve linear programming problems. Instructions for installing ALPS on a PC compatible computer are included in the appendices along with a general introduction to linear programming. A programmers guide is also included for assistance in modifying and maintaining the program.

Ferencz, Donald C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tidal Energy Available for Deep Ocean Mixing: Bounds from Altimetry Data

Maintenance of the large-scale thermohaline circulation has long presented a problem to oceanographers. Observed mixing rates in the pelagic ocean are an order of magnitude too small to balance the rate at which dense bottom water is created at high latitudes. Recent observational and theoretical work suggests that much of this mixing may occur in hot spots near areas of rough topography (e.g., mid-ocean ridges and island arcs). Barotropic tidal currents provide a very plausible source of energy to maintain these mixing processes. Topex/Poseidon (T/P) satellite altimetry data have made precise mapping of open ocean tidal elevations possible for the first time. We can thus obtain empirical, spatially localized, estimates of barotropic tidal dissipation. These provide an upper bound on the amount of tidal energy that is dissipated in the deep ocean, and hence is available for deep mixing. We will present and compare maps of open ocean tidal energy flux divergence, and estimates of tidal energy flux into shallow seas, derived from T/P altimetry data using both formal data assimilation methods and empirical approaches. With the data assimilation methods we can place formal error bars on the fluxes. Our results show that 20-25% of tidal energy dissipation occurs outside of the shallow seas, the traditional sink for tidal energy. This suggests that up to 1 TW of energy may be available from the tides (lunar and solar) for mixing the deep ocean. The dissipation indeed appears to be concentrated over areas of rough topography.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tidal Energy Available for Deep Ocean Mixing: Bounds from Altimetry Data

Maintenance of the large-scale thermohaline circulation has long presented an interesting problem. Observed mixing rates in the pelagic ocean are an order of magnitude too small to balance the rate at which dense bottom water is created at high latitudes. Recent observational and theoretical work suggests that much of this mixing may occur in hot spots near areas of rough topography (e.g., mid-ocean ridges and island arcs). Barotropic tidal currents provide a very plausible source of energy to maintain these mixing processes. Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry data have made precise mapping of open ocean tidal elevations possible for the first time. We can thus obtain empirical, spatially localized, estimates of barotropic tidal dissipation. These provide an upper bound on the amount of tidal energy that is dissipated in the deep ocean, and hence is available for deep mixing. We will present and compare maps of open ocean tidal energy flux divergence, and estimates of tidal energy flux into shallow seas, derived from T/P altimetry data using both formal data assimilation methods and empirical approaches. With the data assimilation methods we can place formal error bars on the fluxes. Our results show that 20-25% of tidal energy dissipation occurs outside of the shallow seas, the traditional sink for tidal energy. This suggests that up to 1 TW of energy may be available from the tides (lunar and solar) for mixing the deep ocean. The dissipation indeed appears to be concentrated over areas of rough topography.

Ray, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tidal Energy Available for Deep Ocean Mixing: Bounds From Altimetry Data

Maintenance of the large-scale thermohaline circulation has long presented a problem to oceanographers. Observed mixing rates in the pelagic ocean are an order of magnitude too small to balance the rate at which dense bottom water is created at high latitudes. Recent observational and theoretical work suggests that much of this mixing may occur in hot spots near areas of rough topography (e.g., mid-ocean ridges and island arcs). Barotropic tidal currents provide a very plausible source of energy to maintain these mixing processes. Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry data have made precise mapping of open ocean tidal elevations possible for the first time. We can thus obtain empirical, spatially localized, estimates of barotropic tidal dissipation. These provide an upper bound on the amount of tidal energy that is dissipated in the deep ocean, and hence is available for deep mixing. We will present and compare maps of open ocean tidal energy flux divergence, and estimates of tidal energy flux into shallow seas, derived from T/P altimetry data using both formal data assimilation methods and empirical approaches. With the data assimilation methods we can place formal error bars on the fluxes. Our results show that 20-25% of tidal energy dissipation occurs outside of the shallow seas, the traditional sink for tidal energy. This suggests that up to 1 TW of energy may be available from the tides (lunar and solar) for mixing the deep ocean. The dissipation indeed appears to be concentrated over areas of rough topography.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Direct Retrieval of Sulfur Dioxide Amount and Altitude from Spaceborne Hyperspectral UV Measurements: Theory and Application

We describe the physical processes by which a vertically localized absorber perturbs the top-of-atmosphere solar backscattered ultraviolet (UV) radiance. The distinct spectral responses to perturbations of an absorber in its column amount and layer altitude provide the basis for a practical satellite retrieval technique, the Extended Iterative Spectral Fitting (EISF) algorithm, for the simultaneous retrieval of these quantities of a SO2 plume. In addition, the EISF retrieval provides an improved UV aerosol index for quantifying the spectral contrast of apparent scene reflectance at the bottom of atmosphere bounded by the surface and/or cloud; hence it can be used for detection of the presence or absence of UV absorbing aerosols. We study the performance and characterize the uncertainties of the EISF algorithm using synthetic backscattered UV radiances, retrievals from which can be compared with those used in the simulation. Our findings indicate that the presence of aerosols (both absorbing and nonabsorbing) does not cause large errors in EISF retrievals under most observing conditions when they are located below the SO2 plume. The EISF retrievals assuming a homogeneous field of view can provide accurate column amounts for inhomogeneous scenes, but they always underestimate the plume altitudes. The EISF algorithm reduces systematic errors present in existing linear retrieval algorithms that use prescribed SO2 plume heights. Applying the EISF algorithm to Ozone Monitoring Instrument satellite observations of the recent Kasatochi volcanic eruption, we demonstrate the successful retrieval of effective plume altitude of volcanic SO2, and we also show the improvement in accuracy in the corresponding SO2 columns.

Yang, Kau↗

NASA NTRS1978

Upper bound and probable value of the rate constant of the reaction OH + HO2 yields H2O + O2

Discharge-flow experiments at 295 K of the OH + HO2 reaction are described in which excess O3 is added to OH through a movable injector; OH concentration is measured downstream by resonance fluorescence with and without addition of excess NO just upstream of the detector so that both OH concentration and OH concentration + HO2 concentration are determined independently. The data are compared with a computer model involving 12 reaction steps. A simple sensitivity analysis is carried out to establish how errors in the other 'known' rate constants affect the data fit. Best agreement is obtained between computer calculations and experiments when k1 for the OH + HO2 reaction is in the range 2-3 x 10 to the -11th cu cm/s. Values above about 5 x 10 to the -11th are very unlikely whereas those below about 1 x 10 to the -11th are less strongly excluded.

Chang, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Specific absorbed fractions for a revised series of the UF/NCI pediatric reference phantoms: internal photon sources

Assessment of radiation absorbed dose to internal organs of the body from the intake of radionuclides, or in the medical setting through the injection of radiopharmaceuticals, is generally performed based upon reference biokinetic models or patient imaging data, respectively. Biokinetic models estimate the time course of activity localized to source organs. The time-integration of these organ activity profiles are then scaled by the radionuclide S-value, which defines the absorbed dose to a target tissue per nuclear transformation in various source tissues. S-values are computed using established nuclear decay information (particle energies and yields), and a parameter termed the specific absorbed fraction (SAF). The SAF is the ratio of the absorbed fraction—fraction of particle energy emitted in the source tissue that is deposited in the target tissue—and the target organ mass. While values of the SAF may be computed using patient-specific or individual-specific anatomic models, they have been more widely available through the use of computational reference phantoms. In this study, we report on an extensive series of photon SAFs computed in a revised series of the University of Florida and the National Cancer Institute pediatric reference phantoms which have been modified to conform to the specifications embodied in the ICRP reference adult phantoms of Publication 110 (e.g. organs modeled, organ ID numbers, blood contribution to elemental compositions). Following phantom anatomical revisions, photon radiation transport simulations were performed using MCNPX v2.7 in each of the ten phantoms of the series—male and female newborn, 1 year old, 5 year old, 10 year old, and 15 year old—for 60 different tissues serving as source and/or target regions. A total of 25 photon energies were considered from 10 keV to 10 MeV along a logarithm energy grid. Detailed analyses were conducted of the relative statistical errors in the Monte Carlo target tissue energy deposition tallies at low photon energies and over all energies for source–target combinations at large intra-organ separation distances. Based on these analyses, various data smoothing algorithms were employed, including multi-point weighted data smoothing, and log–log interpolation at low energies (1 keV and 5 keV) using limiting SAF values based upon target organ mass to bound the interpolation interval. The final dataset is provided in a series of ten electronic supplemental files in MS Excel format. Finally, the results of this study were further used as the basis for assessing the radiative component of internal electron source SAFs as described in our companion paper (Schwarz et al 2021) for this same pediatric phantom series.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Specific absorbed fractions for a revised series of the UF/NCI pediatric reference phantoms: internal electron sources

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Comments on containerless bulk crystal growth and epitaxy in space and on their implications regarding non-contact temperature measurements

Containerless methods are sought for bulk crystal growth and epitaxy which thus far are a less visible component of materials science in space efforts. In the opinion of the author, this is an anomaly which ought to be corrected, because container interactions are a major problem in earth bound materials processing, including crystal growth, and can be avoided or at least significantly reduced in space. The space environment is unique in solving some of these problems, e.g., memory effects in the integration of different classes of materials in high resolution multilayer heterostructures by molecular beam epitaxy or organometallic molecular beam epitaxy. Spectroscopic method of noncontact temperature measurements exist that could be developed in this context. The error in the absolute temperature measurement achieved by these techniques decreases with decreasing substrate temperature and supplements pyrometric measurements that are better suited for high temperature measurements.

Bachmann, Klaus J.↗

NASA NTRS2023

First Principles Modeling of the Thermal Amine Scrubber Flight Experiment’s Chemical Performance

The removal of atmospheric CO2 from a spacecraft is of particular importance to NASA’s mission, and is an area of continual study and technological advancement. One of the more recent advancements has been with reusable sorbents being regenerated with a combination of heat and vacuum. One such technology is the Thermal Amine Scrubber (TAS) flight experiment on the ISS, though several others are currently flying or preparing to fly. A model was created of the TAS to predict chemical performance, using fundamental chemistry and physics based on principles rather than empirical relations. Since the physical laws are true across all conditions, such a model enables greater model accuracy outside the bounds of test data, and allows for virtual testing of the hardware at conditions that are prohibitively difficult or expensive to actually test. This paper details the model’s development, operation, and correlation to data from the flight unit. The model is then compared to a data set taken from the flight unit under different flow, CO2 partial pressure, and bed configuration conditions, resulting in only a 2% error. The equations and principles laid forth in this paper are applicable to a wide range of thermally regenerated sorbents, and additional models of a similar nature would allow for potentially the most straightforward and direct method of comparison of technologies available to date.

CO2 removal↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cholesky-based experimental design for Gaussian process and kernel-based emulation and calibration.

Gaussian processes and other kernel-based methods are used extensively to construct approximations of multivariate data sets. The accuracy of these approximations is dependent on the data used. This paper presents a computationally efficient algorithm to greedily select training samples that minimize the weighted L p error of kernel-based approximations for a given number of data. The method successively generates nested samples, with the goal of minimizing the error in high probability regions of densities specified by users. The algorithm presented is extremely simple and can be implemented using existing pivoted Cholesky factorization methods. Training samples are generated in batches which allows training data to be evaluated (labeled) in parallel. For smooth kernels, the algorithm performs comparably with the greedy integrated variance design but has significantly lower complexity. Numerical experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the approach for bounded, unbounded, multi-modal and non-tensor product densities. We also show how to use the proposed algorithm to efficiently generate surrogates for inferring unknown model parameters from data using Bayesian inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗