Machine learning enabled reduced-order scenario generation for stochastic analysis of solar power forecasts
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Energy & Fuels↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “energy system analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Guidelines for Phase Change Material Selection Based on a Holistic System Model
Concentrating solar power (CSP) has potential to increase the amount of renewable energy on electric grids and reduce global carbon emissions, in particular because of its capability to incorporate inexpensive thermal energy storage. To realize this potential, development of latent heat storage with phase change materials (PCMs) is attractive because of its high energy density and low material cost. Research in this area has identified many promising materials, and has developed effective storage system designs that could be used to deploy PCMs. However, the field has lacked a rigorous methodology to select the optimal material for a particular CSP system. To address this need, here we present a holistic model that evaluates all important influences of PCM properties on the performance and cost of an entire CSP plant. We apply this model to over 100 of the most widely considered candidate materials, including both salts and metals. We quantify the relative value of each PCM property, and identify leading materials for application in CSP systems. This method and our results may aid future efforts to develop latent heat storage by providing a more informed view of how material selection impacts an entire CSP system.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Analysis of a Fluidized-Bed Particle/Supercritical-CO2 Heat Exchanger in a Concentrating Solar Power System
Concentrating solar power (CSP) development has focused on increasing the energy conversion efficiency and lowering the capital cost. To improve performance, CSP research is moving to high-temperature and high-efficiency designs. One technology approach is to use inexpensive, high-temperature heat transfer fluids and storage, integrated with a high-efficiency power cycle such as the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) Brayton power cycle. The sCO 2 Brayton power cycle has strong potential to achieve performance targets of 50% thermal-to-electric efficiency and dry cooling at an ambient temperature of up to 40 °C and to reduce the cost of power generation. Solid particles have been proposed as a possible high-temperature heat transfer or storage medium that is inexpensive and stable at high temperatures above 1000 °C. The particle/sCO 2 heat exchanger (HX) provides a connection between the particles and sCO 2 fluid in emerging sCO 2 power cycles. This article presents heat transfer modeling to analyze the particle/sCO 2 HX design and assess design tradeoffs including the HX cost. The heat transfer process was modeled based on a particle/sCO 2 counterflow configuration, and empirical heat transfer correlations for the fluidized bed and sCO 2 were used to calculate heat transfer area and estimate the HX cost. A computational fluid dynamics simulation was applied to characterize particle distribution and fluidization. This article shows a path to achieve the cost and performance objectives for a particle/sCO 2 HX design by using fluidized-bed technology.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Digital Image Correlation Strain Field Analysis of Materials for Target Systems
Many accelerator facilities are currently being limited in beam power by their target facilities. When exposed to high-energy proton beams, target systems experience radiation damage, mechanical stress, and extreme temperatures, altering their physical properties.For example, due to defects induced in materials by high-energy protons, the physical properties of materials will change during irradiation. Conducting PIEs (Post Irradiation Examinations) can help us understand how the materials can change.Analyzing the strain field across an irradiated sample can help identify where defects have been created, how the hardness of materials have changed, and where they will experience failure.
Ayyildiz, Onat↗
Search for vector-like leptons with long-lived particle decays in the CMS muon system in proton-proton collisions at $$\sqrt{\text{s}}$$ = 13 TeV
Abstract A first search is presented for vector-like leptons (VLLs) exclusively decaying into a light long-lived pseudoscalar boson and a standard model τ lepton. The pseudoscalar boson is assumed to have a mass below the τ + τ − threshold, so that it decays exclusively into two photons. It is identified using the CMS muon system. The analysis is carried out using a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1. Selected events contain at least one pseudoscalar boson decaying electromagnetically in the muon system and at least one hadronically decaying τ lepton. No significant excess of data events is observed compared to the background expectation. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the vector-like lepton production cross section as a function of the VLL mass and the pseudoscalar boson mean proper decay length. The observed and expected exclusion ranges of the VLL mass extend up to 700 and 670 GeV, respectively, depending on the pseudoscalar boson lifetime.
Chekhovsky, V. [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗
Search for vector-like leptons with long-lived particle decays in the CMS muon system in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV
A first search is presented for vector-like leptons (VLLs) exclusively decaying into a light long-lived pseudoscalar boson and a standard model τ lepton. The pseudoscalar boson is assumed to have a mass below the τ + τ − threshold, so that it decays exclusively into two photons. It is identified using the CMS muon system. The analysis is carried out using a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Selected events contain at least one pseudoscalar boson decaying electromagnetically in the muon system and at least one hadronically decaying τ lepton. No significant excess of data events is observed compared to the background expectation. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the vector-like lepton production cross section as a function of the VLL mass and the pseudoscalar boson mean proper decay length. The observed and expected exclusion ranges of the VLL mass extend up to 700 and 670 GeV, respectively, depending on the pseudoscalar boson lifetime.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance: Preprint
Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer, rather than also comparing control systems responses. HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study shows that HEATNETS, while not intended to replace other modeling tools, can be a unique modeling tool for the performance of a full geothermal network system.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Update on Parallel Process Execution in the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM)
As of the end of 2022, it is estimated that over 90,000 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) were stored at various commercial nuclear power reactor sites (both operating and shutdown) across the United States [1]. The Office of Storage and Transportation within the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of SNF and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). To aid in this effort and inform decision-makers about the backend of the spent fuel cycle, systems analysis tools capable of analyzing the various options with respect to SNF and HLW management are being used as well as continuously improved to meet the evolving needs of the program. System analysts typically use these tools to vary underlying assumptions (shipping rates, available facilities, start dates, interim storage capacity, etc.) and study the associated system implications such as timing for clearing sites of SNF, various cost elements, transportation infrastructure acquisition needs, etc.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Low-energy interband transition in the infrared response of the correlated metal SrVO 3 in the ultraclean limit
We studied the low-energy electronic response of the prototypical correlated metal SrVO 3 in the ultraclean and disordered limit using infrared spectroscopy and density functional theory plus dynamical mean field theory calculations (DFT+DMFT). A strong optical excitation at 70 meV is observed in the optical response of the ultraclean samples but is hidden by the low-energy Drude-like response from intraband excitations in the more disordered samples. DFT+DMFT calculations reveal that this optical excitation originates from interband transitions between the bands split by orbital off-diagonal hopping, which has often been ignored in cubic systems, such as SrVO 3 . A memory function analysis of the optical data shows that this interband transition can lead to deviations of optical self-energy from the expected Fermi-liquid behavior. Our findings demonstrate that analysis schemes employed to extract many-body effects from optical spectra may be oversimplified to study the true electronic ground state and that improvements in material quality can guide efforts to refine theoretical approaches.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program Final Technical Report
The Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program was a multi-year initiative aimed at advancing hybrid tandem solar cell technologies to enhance solar module efficiency beyond the limits of single junction devices. This project focused on the development, testing, and scaling of prototype photovoltaic devices, with the goal of achieving commercial relevance and driving industry adoption. The work was divided into three tasks: 1) Comparative Analysis of Tandem Technologies: This task focused on quantifying energy yield under real-world conditions and assessing economic viability of tandems relative to silicon-based modules. The project's modeling framework incorporated performance data, cost of materials, and manufacturing process impacts to optimize tandem designs 2) Tandem Integration and Prototyping: In this task, we developed innovative tandem designs by combining metal halide perovskite (MHP) top cells and silicon (Si) bottom cells. The project focuses on both mechanical integration and direct deposition techniques to enable compatibility with commercially relevant Si technologies, such as passivated contact or PERC cells. 3) Scale-up and Reliability: This task addressed the challenges of large-area fabrication by developing scalable deposition methods and robust interconnection schemes for tandems. The project looked at different accelerated testing such as thermal cycling, damp heat exposure, and potential induced degradation, to ensure long-term stability of devices in field conditions. Tandem solar cells can greatly increase module efficiency beyond conventional single junction (SJ) devices, which are approaching their theoretical limit. There are many ways to fabricate a tandem cell or module in terms of materials used, configuration, and terminal connection. This SETO core project focused critical factors in enabling tandems to enter the market, including hardware integration, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and energy yield analysis. We focused on MHP/Si hybrid tandem solar cells and modules as a model system for their versatility in module design comparisons, providing valuable insights for other tandem options. While champion cells with areas <1cm2 are regularly demonstrated by groups around the world, it is significantly more challenging to translate these advances into modules, and fewer institutions and companies are working at the module level. This project addressed questions about module fabrication, testing, and reliability that are hard to answer without actually fabricating prototypes. We also performed analysis and road-mapping activities to understand the potential for a wider variety of tandems, including all-perovskite tandems fabricated in collaboration with the Perovskite PV core program. Detailed technical results from this project are described for each task in Section 7.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile
This analysis expands upon previous life cycle analyses (LCAs) of natural gas systems performed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). It provides a complete inventory of emissions to air and water, water consumption, and land use change. These environmental burdens are detailed for all supply chain steps from natural gas production through natural gas distribution. This package includes the report, the NETL Natural Gas Model, and appendices that include several Excel workbooks and a python script to provide transparent access to the calculations and resulting data.<p>To access the NETL Natural Gas Lifecycle model, visit https://doi.org/10.18141/2476250.</p><p>To access the 2020 Report Appendices, visit https://doi.org/10.18141/2438472.</p>
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Financial-technical co-design for capital-intensive, resource-responsive energy systems
Because of their capital-intensive operation, wind energy systems that are competitive in terms of the cost of the energy that they produce lead to risk-reward trade-offs that make their business cases less favorable than those of conventional energy generation technologies. However, wind energy systems tend to be designed to maximize energy production or minimize cost of energy rather than to maximize their business cases. In this work, we attempt to exploit designs specifically tailored to business cases. We develop a novel framework for analyzing energy systems that ties their design variables to monthly operating incomes using simple models and historical hourly market and resource data. Using this approach, we demonstrate that for a wind site with abundant wind resource in the California Independent System Operator market, we can control the trade-off between mean and 5th percentile monthly returns by choosing the specific power of the turbine at a fixed modeled initial capital cost. Our framework gives a measure of the risk-reward spectrum of energy generation assets that could be built at a given site with respect to the sub-annual resource/market variation.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Adaptive lighting for streets and residential areas
Adaptive lighting is an approach to lighting application in which the lighting levels are controlled based on the needs of the users of the lighted environment. Such systems are enabled by the instant-on and dimming capabilities of solid-state lighting and have been shown to have the potential to reduce energy consumption by over 50%, both through the use of maintained lighting levels without over-lighting and dimming. This investigation considered the impact of adaptive lighting within Cambridge NA. The impact of adaptive lighting on crashes and crime was considered using both the timing of the installation of the LED system in a before-and-after comparison, as well as a comparison to a neighboring non-dimming city. Industry practitioners and the public were also surveyed. As a follow-on to the first analysis, a human factors experiment was performed to investigate if the lighting levels could be further refined to improve energy performance. Overall, the energy savings from the dimming system range from 55% initially to 36% at the end of the life of the luminaire system
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Rotor blade imbalance fault detection for variable-speed marine current turbines via generator power signal analysis
Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines extract renewable energy from oceanic environments. However, due to the harsh conditions that these turbines operate in, system performance naturally degrades over time. Thus, ensuring efficient condition-based maintenance is imperative towards guaranteeing reliable operation and reduced costs for marine hydrokinetic power. This work proposes a novel framework aimed at identifying and classifying the severity of rotor blade pitch imbalance faults experienced by marine current turbines (MCTs). In the framework, a Continuous Morlet Wavelet Transform (CMWT) is first utilized to acquire the wavelet coefficients encompassed within the 1P frequency range of the turbine's rotor shaft. From these coefficients, several statistical indices are tabulated into a six-dimensional feature space. Next, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is employed on the resulting feature space for dimensionality reduction, and then the application of a K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) machine learning algorithm is utilized for fault detection and severity classification. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated using a high-fidelity MCT numerical simulation platform, where results demonstrate that the presence of a pitch imbalance fault can be accurately detected 100% of the time and correctly classified based upon severity more than 97% of the time.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile
This analysis expands upon previous life cycle analyses (LCAs) of natural gas systems performed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). It provides a complete inventory of emissions to air and water, water consumption, and land use change. These environmental burdens are detailed for all supply chain steps from natural gas production through natural gas distribution. This package includes the report, the NETL Natural Gas Model, and appendices that include several Excel workbooks and a python script to provide transparent access to the calculations and resulting data. This is revision 1 of the 2024 study (published December 17, 2024 and updated on January 24, 2025) and corrects a modeling error in natural gas composition. See the errata on page 2 for more information.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Assessment of BQ-9000 Biodiesel Properties for 2019
This is the third report in the series documenting the annual quality of neat biodiesel (B100) produced and sold in the United States in 2019. Only companies that participate in the industry voluntary quality program, BQ-9000. Each company that agreed to participate, voluntarily provided monthly data to a third-party group. This third-party group of industry experts removed any identifying information and randomized the data prior to providing to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for statistical analysis.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Techno-Economic Analysis of Recuperated Joule-Brayton Pumped Thermal Energy Storage
This article describes a techno-economic model for pumped thermal energy storage systems based on recuperated Joule-Brayton cycles and two-tank liquid storage. Models have been developed for each component, with particular emphasis on the heat exchangers. Economic metrics such as the power and energy capital costs (i.e., per-kW and per-kWh capacity) and levelized cost of storage are evaluated by gathering numerous cost correlations from the literature, thereby enabling estimates of uncertainty. It is found that the use of heat exchangers with effectivenesses up to 0.95 is economically worthwhile, but higher values lead to rapidly escalating component size and system cost. Several hot storage fluids are considered; those operating at the highest temperatures (chloride salts) improve the round-trip efficiency but the benefit is marginal and may not warrant the additional material costs and risk when compared to lower-temperature nitrate salts. Cost-efficiency trade-offs are explored using a multi-objective optimization algorithm, yielding optimal designs with round-trip efficiencies in the range 59-72% and corresponding levelized storage costs of 0.12 0.03 and 0.38 0.10 $/kWhe. Lifetime costs are competitive with lithium-ion batteries for discharging durations greater than 6 h under current scenarios.
Carnot battery↗
Analysis of pumped thermal energy storage using particle media integrated with concentrating solar power
Pumped Thermal Energy Storage (PTES) is an electricity storage system that converts electricity into thermal energy which is stored and later transformed back into electricity. Previous work has illustrated that particles have low capital costs and can be operated over a wide range of temperatures. PTES with particle storage achieves higher round-trip efficiency and specific power output than when molten salt thermal energy storage is used. This article explores hybrid systems that combine PTES with Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Hybrid systems share the majority of components thereby reducing costs compared to two stand-alone devices. In addition, hybrid systems can provide multiple services (such as renewable power generation and electricity storage services). Using particle thermal storage in these hybrid concepts provides freedom in choosing the design conditions, since a wide range of operating temperatures is allowable, therefore making it possible to identify hybrid system designs that have good performance. In this article, two concepts for hybrid PTES-CSP are introduced. Thermodynamic models are developed and these are used to evaluate the performance of two hybrid systems. These models account for turbomachinery efficiency, and approach temperature and pressure loss in heat exchangers, as well as other sources of inefficiency, such as motor-generator losses, and air fan power. The “Solar Top-Up” Concept uses CSP to increase the temperature delivered by the charging heat pump. The discharging system uses a topping gas cycle and a bottoming steam cycle to fully exploit the available energy. Using solar heat to increase the maximum temperature from 750 K to 1100 K increases the round-trip efficiency from 41 % to 62 % and the specific work output from 88 kJ/kg to 301 kJ/kg. The second concept is a “Dual-Mode” device which provides both electricity storage and solar electricity generation with the same set of components. The PTES-mode and CSP-mode performance are optimized at different design values but careful parameter selection leads to good performance of both modes: one design produces PTES round-trip efficiency > 60 %, CSP heat engine efficiency > 40 %, and specific work outputs > 150 kJ/kg (for both cycles), when the particle receiver temperature is > 1200 K and maximum heat pump temperature is 1100 K.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗